Again, I'm very suprised that no-one is making a bigger deal over how the Duke Administration tipped off the team that the Durham Police were investigating this. It's a sign that the Duke family was looking to take care of it's own.

DNA on a tissue? On a tissue under a fingernail in the trash? Or on tissue under the fingernail?

TL, what do you think the latest arrest of Mostafa say of Nifong? At what time would his unethical behavior cross the line?

Because there was a warrant for her arrest, Roberts told police she picked up the woman on the road, in a crowd of men yelling racial slurs. Police did not ask her name, and Roberts went home. A week later, Roberts' escort agency told her police wanted to talk to her about a possible rape. After she gave a statement, police arrested her for the probation violation.

If someone knows -- BTW -- Just how much DNA could be found under her fingernail if the AV had grazed her finger against the lax player who handed her the mixed drink? I don't know, I'm just asking?

Teresa, Teresa, Teresa, I have been reading for a couple of months that the two women met and entered the house together. Where did that come from?

If I knew that the police were investigating a rape and I was involved, I would have gotten rid of all her stuff, including fingernails, got the money out of there, and tossed her makeup bag in a landfill.

Reports are that the skin tissue, attached to the fake fingernail, found in the bathroom trashcan, and "from the same genetic pool" of... is consistent with one of the team captians who lives at that house. These are Matt Zash, Dan Flannery and Dave Evans.

And if the DNA tests aren't due back until Monday, who's leaking this finding?

I keep hearing defense attorneys say that Roberts changed her story after she was arrested by Nifong, but as far as to what she observed that night, has she really changed her story? She's changed her opinion as to whether or not a rape occurred, but I do that a dozen times a day. What has changed other than her opinion?

Again, I'm very suprised that no-one is making a bigger deal over how the Duke Administration tipped off the team that the Durham Police were investigating this. It's a sign that the Duke family was looking to take care of it's own.

The completeness of the DNA test isn't really the issue. Let's assume it is a match for the third player. How does it establish a rape? It's really an issue that goes to her credibility. Does it mean she was telling the truth?

Does it rule out that she got angry at them for forcefully taking the money back and later decided to allege a rape?

I don't know what others think, but I think the timing of this "leaking" is interesting. It probably implies that the 3rd player will be charged on Monday.

Defense attorneys did say that they are not sure where the Herald-Sun got its information. They do know that Nifong has not gotten the DNA report back because he has to hand over the results to them as soon as he gets them.

Posted by Kalidoggie May 10, 2006 01:03 PM

Going back to the last thread.....

Pat, excellent post. Nifong has bothered me the most about this case.

In addition to your statements, either the Durham Sun or N&O stated that Nifong contacted them and insisted that they write the story about the DNA tests, which we all know started the media storm.

Another is that The N&O didn't confect this story. The paper was the first to report that DNA tests had been ordered, but Nifong instigated that action. Much of the coverage since has been about developments in the case -- rallies and protests by residents, Nifong's very public insistence that a crime occurred, the players' lawyers' equally vehement claims of innocence, Duke's actions against the team and coach. In other words, reporting the news.

It is utterly unreasonable for the Durham PD to think or expect Duke to maintain some kind of secrecy on PD's behalf. No one has complained that they were "tipped off" and spoiled the investigation. The Durham PD has not lodged that complaint, just you.

How do you know that Duke didn't say to the lax team "the Durham PD wants talk to you boys about the party and the strippers." You don't!

Interestingly, at the UC schools, the campus police are state cops with the highest level of jurisdiction. At the state schools, the students know their conduct is held to a higher standard for social responsibility.

I think this case bothers me a lot not because the boys are white and privilege and the AV is a black stripper, but really that it's so hard to determine whether the prosecution is seeking for the truth or just winning and proving himself.

Yes, that was the article. The opperative sentence could be written much clearer. As the focus of the article was about reporting, I read it to mean that Nifong "instigated" the reporting of the DNA, but on a second read I can see that it could mean that Nifong instigated the DNA tests that resulted in the N&O reporting it....I assume this is what you would retort.

Thanks for looking it up. I tried but could find it.

imho, if there was lemon-zest quantity skin tissue under the nail, wouldn't the state lab have been able to do the DNA match without sending it to the private lab? Or is skin tissue in itself more difficult to test?

I give up. No one seems to remember where the source of the story of them both initially entering the house at the same time.

I'll bet that the reason for complicated testing was a small sample, the sort that people often get by gently raking someone's neck with fingernails during lap dances, slow dances, or even scuffles (which no one has ruled out).

The initial test results were of the fluid samples taken from the AV. The initial test results were of the fluid samples taken from the AV.

Oops, should have read: "SCI"

Oops, should have read: "SCI" I think it's SBI.

perhaps lucky player X was the guy who tried to catch the AV when she stumbled and got his arm scratched

I didnt add the probability of her nail meeting his skin tissue in the trash can.

What I found strange was that the manual emphatically instructed the nurse to NOT (emphasis theirs) scrape under the nails for samples.

Read again carefully. The odds is still 1/705 regardless how that DNA came on her nails.

Whatever the SBI tested (fluids?) must have had something in it, and it wasn't DNA from the 46. Was it someone else's DNA, or was there really no foreign body DNA on this woman's body, which is why the discarded fingernail is today's headline.

My assumption would be that if player x was actually scratched by the defendant, as Larry suggested, the chance that that the "imperfect" match would exclude every player but him would start to approach 1, and, the chance that the accuser could pick him randomly out of the lineup as one of her three suspects would approach 3/46...

Was there an actual scientific report released detailing what CBI did not find (i.e. no sperm) or were the results of the CBI report filtered to the press. Foreign sperm would be very bad for this case, and Nifong would do well to publicly suppress this for now, though if the CBI scientific report is available through a link I'd stand corrected.

The results, the lawyers said, show that investigators collected no genetic material of any kind from the woman. "There was no DNA found in or on her that would indicate that she recently had any sex," Cheshire said.

I wonder if anyone has looked at 90%'s arm?

An exotic dancer who says three Duke lacrosse players raped her may have identified two of them based on photographs that show scratches on their bodies, a defense attorney said Wednesday.

The attorney said that when 46 members of the lacrosse team submitted court-ordered DNA samples last month, they were also photographed without their shirts.

*- Editor's Note: A previous version of this article mistakenly cited defense attorney Bill Cotter as the source of information concerning how a woman may have identified the two men in this story. Cotter, however, was not the source of the information obtained by WRAL.

Reviewing more carefully my calculation is good only if people claims his DNA meet her fingernails by chance, like their earlier suggestion nails and tissue came together in the trashcan.

You totally confused me, That calculation in my post shows that even that "imperfect" DNA match is confidently pointing to one player. You are also agreeing with that. How his DNA came under her nail is totally different question.

The probability that this "imperfect" match excluded every player but him is: 1/46

I recall a story coming out just after the quote by the defense attorney that the pictures used in the lineup were not the ones taken without their shirts. Does anyone have the articles?

But defense attorneys said the third player accused lived at the house and it is no surprise that trace amounts of his DNA could be found inside his own trashcan. They also said they don't believe the type of fingernails that were found -- the kind that are applied with an adhesive strip -- actually ripped off during an attack. They don't believe the fingernails were ever applied and they say they have pictures to prove it.

What is the probability player X is that guy that partially match is 1/46 assuming he is just unlucky.

But defense attorneys said the third player accused lived at the house and it is no surprise that trace amounts of his DNA could be found inside his own trashcan. They also said they don't believe the type of fingernails that were found -- the kind that are applied with an adhesive strip -- actually ripped off during an attack. They don't believe the fingernails were ever applied and they say they have pictures to prove it.

The defense attorneys say the nails were never applied. I guess it should be easy to tell if they are used or new.

They don't believe the fingernails were ever applied and they say they have pictures to prove it.

One of the reasons the Cheshire may currently be fairly well trapped into making these "chance" arguments regarding how the dna got where it did is that the police have already interviewed his client for eight hours, locking him into a particular story that perhaps did not include any scratching or lap dancing with the accuser.

It is common practice for police to run the names of people involved in a case because they don't want any surprises when the case goes to court, police spokeswoman Kammie Michael said Thursday.