DeLay's Indictment: The Perfect Storm?
This is music to our ears. Dan Balz of The Washington Post writes that the indictment of Tom DeLay, coupled with Bill Frist's problems, RoveGate and Bush's declining ratings due to Katrina, Iraq, gas prices may signal serious setbacks to the Republican Party in the next election cycle, and that Republican leaders in Congress recognize it.
Republican strategists were nearly unanimous in their private assessments yesterday that the party must brace for setbacks next year. On almost every front, Republicans see trouble. Bush is at the low point of his presidency, with Iraq, hurricane relief, rising gasoline prices and another Supreme Court vacancy all problems to be solved. Congressional Republicans have seen their approval ratings slide throughout the spring and summer; a Washington Post-ABC News poll in August found that just 37 percent of Americans approve of the way Congress is doing its job, the lowest rating in eight years.
On the ethics front, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) is under investigation for selling stock in his family's medical business just before the price fell sharply. The probe of well-connected lobbyist Jack Abramoff, a former close associate of DeLay, threatens to create even more troubles for Republicans. Finally, the special counsel investigation into whether White House senior adviser Karl Rove or others in the administration broke the law by leaking the name of the CIA's Valerie Plame is nearing a conclusion.
Bush's popularity within his own party has been sinking along with his poll ratings:
At an earlier point, Bush could have provided political cover for scandals that touched one or another Republican elected official. But with his approval ratings in the low 40s, there is little to prop up the party's image when congressional leaders are under investigation. Already there have been signs that Bush's influence with members of his own party was beginning to wane as House Republicans look to 2006. Without DeLay in power, the prospects of further splintering increase, adding to perceptions of a party in growing disarray.
Let's just hope the Democrats figure out how to capitalize on the Republicans' problems. Splintering them isn't enough. Democrats need to win over voters.
For Democrats, there were many cautionary notes yesterday, despite their obvious glee over DeLay's indictment. On a practical level, the House is now so gerrymandered by redistricting that far fewer districts are genuinely competitive, making the Democrats' task of scoring big gains there more difficult. Nor is there much evidence yet that the voters see Democrats as an attractive alternative, no matter how sour they may be about the Republicans.
Update (by LNILR): See the NY Times: For G.O.P., DeLay Indictment Adds to a Sea of Troubles. Lost at sea, we hope.
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