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Honduran Crisis

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Foreign Affairs
Posted on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 06:29:05 PM EST
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NYTimes:

As the ousted Honduran president, Manuel Zelaya, headed by plane toward Honduras Sunday evening, huge crowds of his supporters clashed with soldiers and riot police at the airport as the interim government vowed to prevent him from landing. As all of Honduras stood in suspense, the interim president, Roberto Micheletti said he was willing to negotiate with the Organization of American States . . .

I do not know what Micheletti has in mind but it might be this - offer to reinstate Zelaya in exchange for a promise by Zelaya to completely forego his attempt to alter the Honduran Constitution to allow him to run for another term (as Hugo Chavez in Venezuela did and as Alvaro Uribe of Colombia is proposing.) the Honduran Supreme Court ruled Zelaya's attempts unconstitutional but he put forth a "nonbinding" referendum anyway. It was Zelaya's determination to hold the referendum that precipitated the coup that removed him. I speculate that if Zelaya agrees to let that go, he could be reinstated. Elections are currently scheduled for November 29. Zelaya can not run in that election under current Honduran law.

Pro-Zelaya reporting by my friend Al Giordano, who reports Zelaya landing in Nicaragua. Not exactly helping Obama out on this one - Venezuelan planes landing in Nicaragua? Oy.

speaking for me only

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    Interesting, thanks (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 06:43:43 PM EST
    I know next to nothing about Honduras.

    Hmmm (none / 0) (#2)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 06:45:06 PM EST
    That is an interesting compromise. Not sure that Zelaya will go for it as he has a lot of supporters riled up. In any case Micheletti  better do something because the people are gathering in large numbers, and there have been reports of some protester deaths at the hands of the Military.

    I believe (none / 0) (#3)
    by CoralGables on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 06:45:53 PM EST
    the plane was denied landing rights and was diverted to El Salvador.

    According To Eva (none / 0) (#4)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 06:53:53 PM EST
    The airplane has been circling above the airport for about 5 minutes. President Zelaya is inside, along with Miguel D'Escoto, Secretary General of the UN General Assembly, Foreign MInister Patricia Rodas.

    The Honduran military has placed military vehicles and forces all along the airport's runway to prevent the airplane from arriving....this is happening right now...the plane is circling trying to figure out how to land....the military is trying to stop it. Thousands of Zelaya supporters are applauding his arrival around the airport.

    link

    Somehow (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 06:55:11 PM EST
    No offense to Eva, I seriously doubt the UN Secretary General is in the plane with Zelaya.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah (none / 0) (#9)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:07:43 PM EST
    Lots of conflicting reports, also it is hard to know as all this is happening in the last hour or so.

    The other report was that the diplomats and UN dignitaries were on a separate plane to el salvador. They would only land in Honduras if Zelaya's plane was allowed to land.

    [ Parent ]

    According to Miami Herald (none / 0) (#12)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:16:32 PM EST
    It is true.
    Zelaya and D'Escoto will head directly to Tegucigalpa, while another plane bound for neighboring El Salvador will carry several Latin American president's including Argentina's Cristina Fernández, Rafael Correa from Ecuador, Fernando Lugo from Paraguay, and José Miguel Insulza, the Secretary General of the Organization of American States.

    Miami Herald


    [ Parent ]

    Naw (none / 0) (#15)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:18:35 PM EST
    That's different. That is the head of the General Assembly who is Nicaraguan.

    Not the Secretary General of the UN.

    To be honest, that pretty much puts the UN out of the game.

    [ Parent ]

    Oh wait (none / 0) (#16)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:19:18 PM EST
    she did say the Secretary General of the General Assembly. Strikes me that that is the incorrect title. I want to check.

    [ Parent ]
    It's the President (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:22:22 PM EST
    of the General Assembly - link.

    The Secretary-General of the General Assembly is something entirely different and frankly, much more important.

    I do not think the President of the General assembly speaks for the UN at all.

    [ Parent ]

    Model UN nerd alert! (none / 0) (#19)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:23:31 PM EST
    (Not me; I stopped in 8th grade!)

    [ Parent ]
    It gets worse (none / 0) (#20)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:24:06 PM EST
    this is who the guy is -

    Father d'Escoto is currently Senior Adviser on Foreign Affairs, with the rank of Minister, to President Daniel Ortega Saavedra, a post which he has held since 2007. He also chairs Nicaragua's National Committee on Water, in which capacity he plays a leading role in efforts to conserve Lake Cocibolca, the largest source of water in Mesoamerica. He is a member of the Sandinista National Council and the Political Commission, the highest governing body of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN).

    He is a member of the Sandinista government.

    the Obama Administration can not touch these people with a ten foot pole. This is being badly mishandled if someone wants the US involved.

    [ Parent ]

    Wow (none / 0) (#24)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:27:17 PM EST
    That is interesting. ALready the right wingers have been calling Obama a commie, ironically Obama is the only, or one of the few world leaders who has not called this a coup.

    No wonder.

    [ Parent ]

    This makes it worse (none / 0) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:28:19 PM EST
    The US can not be involved at all now.

    [ Parent ]
    The OAS should be handling this. (none / 0) (#27)
    by weltec2 on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:28:15 PM EST
    The US needs to respect their authority and leave it to them.

    [ Parent ]
    Secretary General of the UN (none / 0) (#21)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:24:41 PM EST
    rather.

    [ Parent ]
    Have there been any comments yet... (none / 0) (#6)
    by EL seattle on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 06:56:17 PM EST
    ...from any of the Honduran candidates about any of this?  One of them will be elected president in five months, after all.

    I assume that the U.S. (none / 0) (#7)
    by MKS on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:00:09 PM EST
    will stay out of it....I hope.....With a Dem President, that should be a given...  

    The OAS does have credibility in calling balls and strikes in Latin America...

    The compromise suggested seems reasonable....No coup, no change of law....

    That's my proposal (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:04:07 PM EST
    No one else has made it.

    [ Parent ]
    It sounds pretty reasonable (none / 0) (#40)
    by cawaltz on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 08:55:41 PM EST
    Let's hope someone with a little more clout suggests it too. ;)

    [ Parent ]
    Latest (none / 0) (#10)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:11:13 PM EST
    President Manuel Zelaya is speaking live with Telesur, explaining he was forced to land in Managua, Nicaragua after the Honduran coup government and military forces prevented his arrival by placing human obstacles and vehicles along the airport runway in Tegucigalpa.
    link

    I can't imagine either (none / 0) (#17)
    by weltec2 on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:21:07 PM EST
    Manuel Zelaya or Daniel Ortega will be too happy about that.

    [ Parent ]
    I can find nothing (none / 0) (#11)
    by weltec2 on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:15:13 PM EST
    in the way of a statement from Mauricio Funes. What is El Salvador's position?

    I imagine (none / 0) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:17:11 PM EST
    El Salvador's position is 'keep me out of it.'

    [ Parent ]
    All OAS Nations (none / 0) (#14)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:18:00 PM EST
    except one, which I guess is Honduras, have denounced the coup and are demanding that Zelaya be reinstated as president.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah (none / 0) (#23)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:25:34 PM EST
    But who is going to do something about it?

    Um, no one imo.

    [ Parent ]

    100 years we've been thinking about (none / 0) (#26)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:27:28 PM EST
    problems like this, but our international institutions have been mostly useless.

    [ Parent ]
    Hey (none / 0) (#31)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:29:13 PM EST
    Bush 41 invaded Panama . . .

    [ Parent ]
    heh (none / 0) (#33)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:30:21 PM EST
    I think this is a no win situation for us, honestly.

    [ Parent ]
    Exact;ly (none / 0) (#34)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:32:29 PM EST
    Offer the good offices of our negotiators or something.

    [ Parent ]
    In the olden days, United Fruit (none / 0) (#37)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:39:46 PM EST
    would send a flotilla, no?

    [ Parent ]
    I Agree (none / 0) (#29)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:28:45 PM EST
    As long as the US is stepping back from this, all is just bluster.

    [ Parent ]
    Trade Blocade (none / 0) (#22)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:25:08 PM EST
    Ahead of the OAS' threats, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua were punishing Honduras by blocking trade. They lifted the sanction Thursday, having already caused millions of dollars in losses. Honduran businesses decried having lost some $20 million during the 48-hour blockade.

    link

    [ Parent ]

    what a sign (none / 0) (#25)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:27:24 PM EST
    of the poverty in the region. 20 million dollars in trade lost in 2 days. My gawd, what a pittance relatively speaking.

    [ Parent ]
    You've got to figure that the Banana (none / 0) (#30)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:28:54 PM EST
    growers have their own security. And as for the other growers. . .

    (Honestly, I don't know what else Honduras does).

    [ Parent ]

    Tourism to Copan. (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by oculus on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 10:12:17 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Coffee (none / 0) (#32)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:30:16 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I was thinking of cocaine (none / 0) (#35)
    by andgarden on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:32:40 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    lol (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 07:37:09 PM EST
    Joint Task Force-Bravo has that operation all sewn up. Nothing but the best when it comes to drugs.

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder if (none / 0) (#42)
    by cawaltz on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 10:28:08 PM EST
    that operation will also end now that we have declared that we are no longer in the business of destroying poppy fields in the ME?

    It's one of the few decisions I actually have agreed with the admin on thus far.

    [ Parent ]

    geez, these bozos (none / 0) (#38)
    by cpinva on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 08:00:31 PM EST
    can't even stage a military coup properly!

    the first thing you do is murder the person you're staging the coup against, you don't whisk him off to a foreign country! there can't be two, living, current presidents, it just confuses the people. especially if the coup'd president happens to be particularly popular with the bulk of the population.

    good grief, where did these morons go to "coup school"?

    SOA (none / 0) (#39)
    by squeaky on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 08:01:18 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Why (none / 0) (#43)
    by cawaltz on Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 10:33:06 PM EST
    I believe they went to coup school right here in the good ol' US of A.

    Fort Benning Georgia

    http://www.soaw.org/type.php?type=8

    [ Parent ]

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