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Sunday Presidential Race Reading

Four not to miss, and I'm just getting started:

  • The New York Times: Obama in Senate: Star Power, Minor Role. I've read another article like this in the past few days but didn't write about it because the person critical of Obama was a Republican. This one has some meat from Democrats on page 3.
  • The Washington Post: Influential Democrats Waiting to Choose Sides. The Post does a survey of undeclared superdelegates, finding most will wait until the primaries are over. And 100 votes or so difference is no big deal. They'll exercise their independent function not just vote the way the voters do. Why have them if that's their only purpose? Some, like Sen. Salazar of Colorado, say the decision will based on which candidate can better bring it home for the Dems in their state in November.
  • The Washington Post: Philadelphia Mayor's Endorsement Suddenly Matters: Philly's African American Mayor explains why he's staying with Hillary. When asked about Philly being 45% African American, after noting he won both the black and white vote, he said:
    "We feel a certain sense of freedom and progressiveness here," Nutter said of the City of Brotherly Love. "The notion that all black people vote one way has to be destroyed."

More...

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The Upshot of Wyoming: Obama Gains Two Delegates

The Washington Post reports on today's Wyomining caucuses:

With 100 percent of the vote in, Obama won 61 percent to 38 percent for Clinton. The victory netted Obama just two delegates (7 for Obama, 5 for Clinton).

The win was expected, as Obama has dominated most of the small-state caucuses during the nomination fight.

His 59 percent of the vote -- if it holds -- would be slightly under the sorts of vote totals Obama wracked up in caucuses in places like Alaska (74 percent), Kansas (70 percent), North Dakota (61 percent) and Idaho (79.5 percent). Of the remaining nine states left to vote, none will hold caucuses.

So, two delegates, a lesser margin than in several other of his caucus wins and there are no caucuses left. I doubt it will sway any superdelegates.

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Primary Number Crunching

There's been a long discussion about numbers in comments to Big Tent's earlier post about the differential in voter power among states when it comes to selecting delegates.

For those of you who are number crunchers (and I'm not) here's some new stats on primary voter turnout and age differential among voters from George Mason University's U.S. Elections Project. (hat tip to Red Star Blog.)

How big an impact is the youth vote having?

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Ohio, Hillary, the Rural Vote and November

I wrote so many posts last week like this one about Ohio and the rural vote, both from a historical perspective and for this year. I feel vindicated -- here's a new AP article today that explains how well Hillary did in the Ohio rural vote, how it was her intentional strategy, how John Kerry failed to go after it or win it, and more.

Bottom line: The Dems can take Ohio in November. But not without that rural vote, which went astonishingly for Hillary.

Decades have passed since Ohio last saw a competitive Democratic primary, and the interest showed in a record turnout of 48 percent of registered voters.

Clinton still garnered more interest than Kerry in his primary four years ago. Where she won 81 percent of the vote in Scioto County, Kerry got 55 percent in his 2004 primary. Where she got 80 percent of the vote in Jackson County, Kerry got 64 percent. Where Clinton got 78 percent of the vote in Lawrence County, Kerry got 59 percent.

This is what Hillary did in her New York Senate races. Howard Wolfson says it's been her strategy in all the primary races. [More...]

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Rasmussen Updates Electoral College Map

Rasmussen has updated its electoral college map of how each of the 50 states should go in November.

It moves Tennessee into the "safely Republican" category but says that has no effect on the total. Including the "leaning states,"

Democrats [are]leading in states with 284 Electoral College Votes. Republicans are favored in states with 229 Votes.

Here are the toss-up states:

Eight states with 97 Electoral Votes are either a pure Toss-Up or just slightly leaning to one party or the other. These are likely to be the early battleground states of Election 2008: Florida (27), Ohio (20), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), and New Mexico (5).

Anyone want to weigh in on the significance or lack of significance of Rasmussen's new map?

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Wyoming Democratic Caucus: Obama Wins

Final Update: 100% now in, Teton went for Obama, final delegate count, Obama 187.5, Hillary 129.5, Uncommitted 2.

Update: Obama wins Sheridan, only Teton left, and that should go to Obama as well.

Update: Last five caucus results now coming in. Hillary wins Weston County. Obama won Big Horn and Johnson. Only Sheridan and Teton are left. The delegate count is now at 160 for Obama, 116 for Hillary, 2 uncommitted. Again, these are delegates to the state convention to be held in late May. CNN now projects Obama to win. Sheridan has 18 delegates and Teton has 17. The caucus ends at 6pm MT in Sheridan. (A 4 hour caucus?)

Update: I think I've found the answer as to why the race hasn't been called by CNN, thanks to McJoan and Pocket Nines at Daily Kos. Four counties start caucusing in 5 minutes at 2:00 pm MT. One starts at 3pm. That's it for me, I'm willing to call Wyoming an Obama win.

Official Wyoming caucus results will be here. They will also appear on CNN's page here. [More...]

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What Should the Super Delegates Do? 59% Of Dems Say Popular Vote Winner Should Get Nod

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Sargent, Newsweek finds Dems divided on what the Super Delegates should do:

But Ras has this:

In the craziness of the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it is possible that one candidate might finish the Primary Season with the most pledged delegates while another could end up with the most popular votes. If that happens, . . . [a]mong Democratic voters, 59% believe the candidate with the most popular votes deserves the nomination.

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The Demographics Of Mississippi

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

This Ras poll of Mississippi, which holds a primary on Tuesday, is startling and sobering:

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Pledged Delegates The Will Of The People? Not Hardly

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

So we are celebrating "democracy" in Wyoming today. The "will of the people?" Not hardly. Another travesty of the Democratic Party.

Do you know that if 8,000 voters come out in Wyoming today to select their 13 delegates that means that 615 Wyomingians will be selecting a delegate to our national convention (8000 divided by 13.) By contrast, when 4.4 million Californians voted in their primary, they selected 370 delegates, which is to say 1 delegate for every 11,892 Californian who voted.

The will of the people? Please never mention that phrase again when discussing the pledged delegate count.

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Obama Rejects "Firehouse Primary" In Michigan

The Democratic state party chair in Michigan says the Barack Obama campaign has rejected the idea of a "firehouse primary." The proposal would have included:

Polls would be open from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., and any eligible voter who hadn't voted in the state's Jan. 15 Republican primary could participate. The voter must be a citizen who turns 18 by the November election and declares himself or herself a Democrat for the day.

On Obama's rejection:

Obama's campaign doesn't like the idea, said Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer. "That's what I've been told by his campaign, but it's not my place to inquire about motivations," said Brewer, who said he thinks a do-over primary has serious financial and logistical problems.

Update [2008-3-8 11:48:12 by Big Tent Democrat]: Just as significant is the fact that Carville announces that Clinton camp will raise 15MM for new primaries and challenges Obama camp to do same:

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Obama Rules Out Being VP Candidate?

By Big Tent Democrat

Nah. But first what he said and why it does not mean he will not be a VP candidate. From ABC:

Q: Could you ever see yourself on the same ticket as Senator Clinton?

A: Well, you know, I think it’s premature. You won’t see me as a vice presidential candidate -- you know, I’m running for president. . . [W]hat I’m really focused on right now, because all that stuff is premature, is winning this nomination and changing the country. . . .

What is Obama doing here? Pushing back on Hillary Clinton's broad hints that she will pick Obama as her VP. Why is Clinton doing that? To give the impression you can get Obama and still vote for her. That is aimed not only at voters but, and I think much more importantly, also at Super Delegates. Obama needs to push back against this idea as it hurts him in his pursuit of the nomination. This has a danger for Obama though, it might make it seem he cares more about himself than the Democratic Party.

I am fine with what he is doing, but he needs a more ambiguous answer. Suggestion for Obama - "I do not see myself running for VP."

Update [2008-3-8 11:38:20 by Big Tent Democrat]:Media does not bite:

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Canada Only Got NAFTA Briefing From Obama Advisor

By Big Tent Democrat

Because most of the Left blogs are too busy bemoaning the fact that Samantha Power had to leave the Obama campaign for making, to them, the not unreasonable statement that Hillary Clinton is a monster (no they have not gone off the deep end have they?), you are not likely to see much reporting on the fact that Canada Only Got A NAFTA Briefing From An Obama Advisor:

[Canadian] PMO: Officials only got briefing from Obama campaign

OTTAWA — Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton never gave Canada any secret assurances about the future of NAFTA such as those allegedly offered by Barack Obama's campaign, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's office said Friday.

. . . After being asked whether Canadian officials asked for — or received — any briefings from a Clinton campaign representative outlining her plans on NAFTA, a spokeswoman for the prime minister offered a response Friday.

"The answer is no, they did not," said Harper spokeswoman Sandra Buckler.

After a few days of great interest, conspiracy theories and excitement, most Left blogs have to remember to forget this story again. It hurts Obama again, so it must be forgotten.

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