By Big Tent Democrat

[T]his dogwhistle Rorschach test, which progressive activists and media elites are interpreting so differently, could create problems for Obama when it comes time to govern. . . . [T]he . . . media elites that also like Obama intend to hold him accountable unless he becomes the next Joe Lieberman.

. . . Obama's message of bipartisanship means different things to different people. Media elites see it as a sign that he will regularly engage in fights that will anger the progressive activist base of the party. By contrast, many progressive activists see it as simply stating that he intends to build a large, "bipartisan" majority in Congress that will pass a progressive agenda. If, when he becomes President, Obama breaks in one direction or the other, one of these groups will probably end up pretty angry at him.

Indeed. Finally, some traction for analyzing Obamas's theory of change.

By Big Tent Democrat

Anybody can find a poll that says anything. NJDem just found this Ras poll that says Hillary wins NJ easily over McCain while Obama loses to McCain.

My own view is that no Dem loses New Jersey. My concerns are in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida. But when you hear about Obama's real advantages in Colorado and Virginia, remember that there are 50 different elections in a Presidential general election. Some of them are contested. like Ohio, PA and MI. Some are not, like Texas, Utah, North Dakota and Idaho. Much to the dismay of many Left bloggers, there will be no 50 state strategy in the Presidential election this November.

By Big Tent Democrat

Josh Marshall's cutesy headline about David Ignatius' column misses a key point. Of course, Barack Obama is not Joe Lieberman. But that is what the Media thinks "bipartisanship" means. That is the essence of High Broderism - unity means Dems capitulating to Republicans on the issues. The question then is how exactly will, if not through High Broderism, Obama unify the country in post partisan fashion? We are back to discussing Mark Schmitt's theory of Obama change. I hold to my view (for an opposing view, here is scribe's take):

Your turn. This is an Open Thread.

Good post from Matt Stoller.

By Big Tent Democrat

I think a credible argument that Barack Obama is slightly better than Hillary Clinton on civil liberties from as legislative perspective can be made. But the most important thing a President does to protect civil liberties is to appoint good Supreme Court justices committed to recognizing and acting on the Supreme Court's role as a bulwark for civil liberties. Scott Lemieux thinks that Jeffrey Rosen makes a compelling case for Obama. I think he raised the biggest red flag imaginable. Taking aside the questionable claims Rosen makes regarding Obama's role on reforming the Patriot Act, where Rosen really buries Obama is here:

Mr. Obama . . . is not a knee-jerk believer in the old-fashioned liberal view that courts should unilaterally impose civil liberties protections on unwilling majorities. His formative experiences have involved arguing for civil liberties in the legislatures rather than courts, and winning over skeptics on both sides of the political spectrum, as he won over the police and prosecutors in Chicago.

(Emphasis supplied.) More...

The Bush Justice Department at work again.

Lyglenson Lemorin, age 33, came to the U.S. from Haiti as a child. He is a legal resident of the U.S. He hasn't been to Haiti in 20 years.

He was acquitted by a federal jury of any wrongdoing in the Justice Department's hyped prosecution of the Miami Liberty 7 -- another case that went after a bunch of sad sacks who may have been bumbling terror wannabes but had no ability to carry out a terror threat even if that was their desire.

The Justice Department is now trying to deport Lemorin back to Haiti -- for the same conduct for which he was acquitted. In other words, a legal resident who grew up here and was acquitted by a jury after the Government had its chance to take its best shot and failed is now facing removal from the United States. He never even saw a day of freedom after the acquittal.

That's the Republican way of doing things and why it must end in November. [More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

Let's start with the most surprising result, a Columbus Dispatch Ohio poll:

A new Dispatch Poll shows that the New York senator would lead in Ohio by as much as 16 percentage points under the usual turnout scenario dominated by loyal, older party voters -- especially if women show up in force, as they have in earlier primary states.

Even if you presume an unusual influx of young and black poll-goers, Clinton still would hold a healthy single-digit lead, the poll indicates.

Clinton by 16? That result would shake up the race. [More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

Kevin Drum finds the latest version. Soon to be seen at a Clinton hating left blog near you.

By Big Tent Democrat

Chris Bowers does some yeoman work in putting together the available exit poll numbers from the primary contests. While I have some minor quibbles with Chris' methodologies, it is still some terrific information. And it provides some great insight into the potential and potential pitfalls of both an Obama or Clinton general election candidacy. I'll discuss those presently.

That said, there are a few thing Chris overlooks that seem to me to have merited tabulation. They are ethnic breakdowns (White, African-American and Latino at the least) and a study of how the candidates did in the big contested states. There is a reason the results in Wisconsin were so promising for Obama, he had finally broken through to some demographics he had not reached before in primary states. This is related to understanding that Obama will not win Idaho, Utah, Kansas or Nebraska so his inroads there are simply less meaningful than those in Wisconsin and Virginia.

Chris seems to realize the problem with his breakdown and defensively writes: {More...}

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only.

VastLeft writes about Bill Maher's version:

It looks like Hillary Clinton will be on Saturday Night Live tonight. Check back later for the You Tubes.

Hillary Clinton may make an unexpected visit on Saturday Night Live. According to CNN, presidential candidate Hillary Clinton may make a surprise appearance on this week’s Saturday Night Live, right before Tuesday’s crucial primaries.

A Saturday Night Live spokesman would not comment on the situation and only said, "It's a live show; anything can happen."

However, Clinton did not arrive for her scheduled flight from Dallas, Texas to Columbus, Ohio on Saturday evening and campaign officials would not disclose the Senator’s location, according to CNN.

Sen. Hagel for Secretary of Defense? Sen. Luger for Secretary of State? Barack Obama believes that's one way to "neutralize John McCain."

A reporter from the Sunday Times (UK) traveled on Barack Obama's campaign plane last week. Both campaign advisors and Obama told him in interviews,

Obama is hoping to appoint cross-party figures to his cabinet such as Chuck Hagel, the Republican senator for Nebraska and an opponent of the Iraq war, and Richard Lugar, leader of the Republicans on the Senate foreign relations committee.

Senior advisers confirmed that Hagel, a highly decorated Vietnam war veteran and one of McCain’s closest friends in the Senate, was considered an ideal candidate for defence secretary.

....Asked about his choice of cabinet last week, Obama told The Sunday Times: “Chuck Hagel is a great friend of mine and I respect him very much,” although he was wary of appearing as though he was already choosing the White House curtains.

Obama made similar comments in Dallas this week:

[More....]