When I predicted 500,000 voters voting today in Puerto Rico before (and it looks like the number will be somewhat lower than that), I noticed that no one discussing what turnout would be in Puerto Rico the most important variable - that Puerto Rico is a machine/patronage jurisdiction. Turnout is almost completely driven by the party machinery of the two main parties - the statehood New Progressive Party (PNP by its Spanish acronym) and the Commonwealth Popular Democratic Party (PDP by its Spanish acronym). The statehood party in particular has an incredible get out the vote machine. And the Commonwealth Party also has a strong get out the vote machine.

So what happened in this election? Two things. First, the Commonwealth Party is led by a dead politician walking, the indicted Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila. Second, the statehood party is led by a Republican supporter of John McCain Luis Fortuno, its gubernatorial candidate. (The strong Hillary supporter and former governor Pedro Rossello lost in a primary to Fortuno for the nomination.) [More...]

The Washington Post agrees it's true.

"17 million Americans have voted for Hillary Clinton...more than for any primary candidate in history" -- a statement that is entirely true.

Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, said that "both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have gotten more votes than any presidential campaign in primary history" but added: "We are, however, ahead in the popular vote now and will be ahead when all of the votes are counted Tuesday."

More....

The number I care about is the popular vote total after Puerto Rico. If Obama hasn't reached 2,118 pledged delegates when the votes are counted tonight, that number should be as important to superdelegates as the pledged delegate total. With Obama ahead in one and Hillary in the other, they now need to consider electability in November and the electoral map before making a final decision.

If the exit polls are correct, she beat Obama by 40 points, 70% to 30%.

If 400,000 people voted, she got 280,000 votes, while Obama got 120,000. That gives her a 160,000 vote popular vote boost.

Isn't she now indisputably the leader in the popular vote as of today? While we still need to wait for S.D. and MT where Obama is expected to win,those are small states. [More...]

Everyone calls it. CNN says by "wide margin." Here are the exit polls. 70-30 is the projection. The delegate loss for Obama will be huge if this is correct. He will lose each 4 delegate district 3-1. He may even lose the two 5 delegate districts 4-1. And he will lose San Juan 4-2. He will lose the PLEOs 5-2 and the at large delegates 8-4 and possibly 9-3. Obama could lose the delegate race by 23 today in Puerto Rico.

Fox is scrolling the following exit poll results for Puerto Rico:

Clinton won men 61-35. Clinton won women 61-30. Like in the states, in Puerto Rico more women vote than men so if these polls are correct, Clinton appears headed to a sweeping 2-1 victory over Barack Obama in Puerto Rico.

In practical terms, this would mean a much larger delegate win for Clinton than I previously predicted. Without knowing the geographic breakdowns, I can not predict with accuracy, but that result would lead to a least a 10 delegate win for Clinton and probably more.

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I'm taking the afternoon off from blogging. Here's two of my favorites, the first from the 9/11/ Concert for New York City that seem appropriate today -- the Goo Goo Dolls "American Girl" and the second, my favorite version of BonJovi's "Living on a Prayer", from the 2005 Live Aid concert.

Also, John Rzeznik and Jon Bon Jovi are two of my favorite faces to look at.

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

Geraldo Rivera is in Puerto Rico. He interviewed Hillary Clinton but it hasn't aired yet.

From his live report:

• Turnout has been low to moderate.
• She needs 160,000 votes for popular vote lead
• She will win majority of delegates and superdelegates.

Fox News has a chiron at the bottom of their screen saying turnout may only be 20%. Major Garrett says turnout will be 300 - 400,000 votes. He also said she needs 96% of the uncommitted pledged delegates.

CNN will have exit polling.

The polls in Puerto Rico are open for another 3 hours. Honestly, I have no information at all to provide you. My sources are, not surprisingly, otherwise engaged.

But as I get any news, I will provide it here. This is an Open Thread.

Apparently, Obama's most important endorser in Puerto Rico is expecting a bad result for Obama:

Pedro Pierluisi, co-President of Obama's Puerto Rico campaign [and the Statehood Party's candidate for Resident Commissioner] accepted that he will have a difficult time explaining to Obama the reason why the Puerto Rican people do not favor him. “My job has turned a bit more difficult. I will have to explain why he was not supported by the Puerto Rican people. . . . [Pierluisi] expects Obama to win at least 20 delegates [out of 55].

(My translation.) Pierluisi expects a wipeout it sounds to me.

I am amazed at the view expressed by Obama supporters that unifying the Democratic Party is a problem for Hillary Clinton. Like me, they all expect Barack Obama to be the nominee, but they insist that the problem of unifying the Democratic Party belongs to Hillary Clinton. This is an incredibly obtuse view. Obama is going to be the candidate who will win or lose in November. It will be HIS job to unify the Party. Ezra Klein does not see it that way:

[There is an] authentic, deep anger among Clinton supporters. And that's not a problem the Rules Committee can resolve. This one is up to Clinton herself.

Um no. That is up to the likely nominee, Barack Obama. It will be his campaign this Fall. Not Hillary Clinton's campaign.

POST SCRIPT: And here is Meteor Blades berating angry Clinton supporters. There is a winning strategy. Not. Unity? Not hardly. And maybe never if people like Ezra Klein and Meteor Blades have their way. Yelling at people who consider themselves aggrieved is not exactly a smart way to bring them back in the fold. Time for some OBAMA supporters to grow up.

Speaking for me only

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Via Political Wire:

"My momma taught me to play by the rules and respect those rules. My mother taught me, and I'm sure your mother taught you, that when you decide change the rules, middle of the game, end of the game, that is referred to as cheatin'."

-- Donna Brazile, quoted by NBC News.

The DNC Rules and Bylaws committee did not change the rules yesterday, They did not even pretend to follow them. What the RBC did yesterday simply is not allowed by the DNC Rules. There is not a person in the world that can say that RBC played by the rules. So Donna, what would your momma call that?

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Tomorrow it's on to Puerto Rico. Here's your last open thread of the evening.

BTD - I added my own choice, Maelo, el Sonero Mayor, the late great Ismael Rivera. The video has a clip of La Perla, in Old San Juan. It is on the flip side.

7 hours from now. Starting at 8 am and closing at 3 pm, the people of the Isla del Encanto go to the polls for the Presidential Primary. Clinton is favored. the questions seems to be margin and turnout. Clinton wants big for both.

I'll try and give an early indication of turnout in the morning. My predictions remain the same - Clinton 57-43. Turnout 500,000. Clinton wins the delegate race 31-24.

Any late night predictions for Puerto Rico?

By Big Tent Democrat

Now that the DNC has recognized the Florida and Michigan primaries by agreeing to seat all of their delegates, the party has to recognize the popular votes in those states. The elections are no longer "illegitimate." Flawed, perhaps, but illegitimate, no.

The way I see it, the DNC cannot change the numbers of votes cast the way it did delegates. These were certified state elections with firm vote totals. Barack Obama removed himself voluntarily from the ballot. Hillary has to be allotted her votes, and he has to accept the consequences of his action, which is that he gets none of the popular vote in Michigan.

As a result, by any count, Hillary Clinton now leads in the popular vote. From Real Clear Politics: