The latest CBS News poll (PDF) tells you all you need to know as to why Obama is a shoo in in this election and what he needs to do to win a landslide. The poll has Obama leading 45-39 over McCain, the same margin he has held now for 3 months. But Obama is not winning by wooing Independents or Republicans. Heck, he is not even dominating Dems as he should. He is winning, and is a shoo in, because the country hates Republicans. Starting with George Bush who has a 25% approval rating.

Obama wins because Dems lead Republicans in party ID by 7 to 10 points. McCain does better with Republicans, 78-11, than Obama does with Democrats, 74-10, while they split Independents 40-40. But there are more Democrats than Republicans now. That is why Obama is winning.

More . . .

As this TalkLeft post explains, Salim Hamdan did not receive a fair trial before the military tribunal he faced at Guantanamo.

The judge allowed secret testimony and hearsay evidence. Hamdan was not judged by a jury of his peers and he received no Miranda warning about his rights. Hamdan's attorneys said interrogations at the center of the government's case were tainted by coercive tactics, including sleep deprivation and solitary confinement.

John McCain applauded the process, claiming it "demonstrated that military commissions can effectively bring very dangerous terrorists to justice." That's not surprising, given McCain's support for the obnoxious law that created the military tribunals.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, recognized that the struggle to bring Hamdan to trial "underscores the dangerous flaws in the administration's legal framework." Obama rejects McCain's willingness to detain people for years before giving them an unfair hearing, and reminds us that the path to justice is enshrined in our Constitution: [more...]

ABC News has the latest on whether Hillary Clinton will put her name in nomination alongside Barack Obama at the Democratic Convention.

Answer: It's not clear.

Friday, the New York Daily News said she was not going to submit a request.

...."She is not going to submit the signed request," the [Clinton] insider told the Daily News. "People are still circulating petitions on her behalf, but this is a done deal."

Party rules stipulate that Clinton must ask in writing to be nominated herself and also submit a petition signed by 300 to 600 delegates. Without her signed request, petitions of support are meaningless.

Today's update: [More...]

Update: 2/3 of tickets will go to residents of Rocky Mountain States. 1/2 will go to residents of Colorado.

Final update: Go! Tickets available here, first come, first serve. More information available here. You must be able to show you have a place to stay since transportation and lodging is not being provided. They are encouraging Republicans and Independents to attend.

Volunteering is not required:

While volunteering is not a prerequisite for recipients, Coloradans who volunteer with the Campaign for Change will have the opportunity to receive all-star seating for Barack Obama’s speech.

More....

Reader, reader on the wall, who's the most fabulous of them all?

As McCain continues to hit at Obama's celebrity with yet another video ad, here's a better one to watch.

(Lyrics here since it's hard to hear the words over the music.)

And you were just too busy being fabulous

Too busy to think about us

This is an open thread.

As TalkLeft has pointed out repeatedly, exonerations of the innocent by new DNA testing represent only the tip of the wrongful conviction iceberg. Most prosecutions do not depend on DNA evidence. In cases where it's absent, it is extraordinarily difficult to free the innocent after a mistaken conviction. An article in USA Today reminds us that even when DNA testing might prove helpful, states don't always preserve the evidence from which DNA might be obtained.

Timothy Atkins' innocence was proved the old fashioned way: through a "dogged investigation" conducted by lawyers and law students. He was 14 years into a 32 year sentence.

[T]he files contained a tantalizing 1999 letter, allegedly written by a key witness against Atkins, Denise Powell. In the letter to Atkins' grandmother, Powell said she had lied to police, without specifics. In her interrogation and in court, she had said Atkins confessed to being an accomplice in the 1985 murder.

[more ...]

Hillary Clinton writes today:

There appears to be no crisis, tragedy or disaster immune from exploitation under the Bush administration. The examples of the waste, fraud and abuse are legion -- from KBR performing shoddy electrical work in Iraq that has resulted in the electrocution of our military personnel according to Pentagon and Congressional investigators, to the firing of an Army official who dared to refuse a $1 billion payout for questionable charges to the same company. In another scam, the Pentagon awarded a $300 million contract to AEY, Inc., a company run by a 22-year-old who fulfilled an ammunition deal in Afghanistan by supplying rotting Chinese-made munitions to our allies.

[More . . .]

As both Big Tent Democrat and I wrote separately today, a Veep announcement from Sen. Barack Obama is not expected this week.

There was no announcement today in Indiana where he campaigned with current media front runner Sen. Evan Bayh.

Obama won’t be tipping his hand for running mate this week, one campaign official said, and he won’t do it next week either, at least not while he’s vacationing with his family in Hawaii. That vacation ends Aug. 16, giving Obama about a week and a half to make a decision in advance of the Democratic convention.

The State of Florida has 27 electoral votes, more than Indiana (12) and Virginia (13) combined. According to both SUSA, and now PPP, Obama is losing in Florida because is losing women to John McCain:

The numbers show an unusual gender gap, with McCain leading by 11 points among women while trailing by 5 points with men. Last month's results similarly showed Obama doing eight points better with men than women, a trend PPP has not seen in any of its other state by state polling.

Hillary Clinton as VP can help Obama win Florida. She will strengthen him with women and seniors. Yet another reason why she should be the VP pick. Let me add from PPP's release (PDF):

Obama earns just 76% of the Democratic vote, with the folks in his party supporting McCain disproportionately older white females. “The Democrats crossing over to support John McCain are your prototypical Hillary Clinton supporters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama still has some work to do getting those folks on his side if he wants to have any chance of winning Florida.”

(Emphasis supplied.)

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

CBS will release a new poll tonight on voters' views of the importance of the vice-presidential candidate. Here are some of the findings:

30% say the choice is important to their vote. Among undecided voters, 47% say the choice will influence their vote.

The poll also shows a lack of confidence in both candidates on the question of which would make the right decisions on the economy:

Just 12 percent said they were very confident that Obama would and 9 percent said the same about McCain. Forty percent said they were somewhat confident that Obama would make the right decisions and 41 percent said that about McCain

As to making the right decisions about Iraq, it seems Obama's trip to the Mideast didn't help. While there's a lot of dissatisfaction with both candidates, McCain seems to be ahead on this issue: [More...]

Oh, come all ye faithful? The city and County of Denver yesterday issued a parade permit to a group of Hillary Clinton backers for Tuesday, August 26.

Hillary Clinton supporters will march through Denver during the Democratic National Convention to show appreciation for the New York senator's historic primary run and urge the party to place her name in nomination.

The city issued a permit Tuesday to Colorado Women Count/Women Vote for a parade on Aug. 26 - the 88th anniversary of women's suffrage and the date Clinton is rumored to be speaking at the DNC.

Also participating: "18 Million Voices, a national organization of Clinton supporters."

Hillary supporters, who will be arriving by buses from all over the country, have a place of their own to gather: [More...]

The military jury in the trial of Guantanamo Detainee and Osama bin Laden driver Salim Hamdan reached a split verdit: Guilty of terrorism, not guilty of conspiracy.

Sentencing is expected to take place this afternoon. Life in prison is on the table. Hamdan cried as the verdict was read. His lawyers point out the inherent unfairness of the military tribunal trial process:

Hamdan's attorneys said the judge allowed evidence that would not have been admitted by any civilian or military U.S. court, and that interrogations at the center of the government's case were tainted by coercive tactics, including sleep deprivation and solitary confinement.

Unfair trials rob the public of the ability to trust in the integrity of the verdict. Guantanamo has been a failure and a black mark on America since day one. After the War in Iraq, this will be the biggest stain on the legacy of George W. Bush. Worst President Ever.[More...]