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Ryan Routh: Caught by a License Plate Reader

This is suspect Ryan Routh, who was arrested yesterday after allegedly planning to kill Donald Trump at his International Golf Course in Palm Beach. The photo is taken from Routh's Linked In account.

Routh didn't shoot anything. He fled when police arrived. When the Secret Service opened fire on him and missed, he ran out of the bushes and into a Black Nissan, leaving his "AR 15 style" rifle in the bushes along with his Go-Pro camera. A bystander just happened to be in the area and took a photo of his car driving off that showed his license plate number. The cops called into their real-time crime center which used a license plate reader to capture his license plate as it on Interstate 95. Routh was stopped and taken into custody.

From the news conference at 5:10 pm (MT): The FBI in Miami is the lead investigating agency. The state prosecutor is preparing an arrest warrant and will ask he be detained without bond. Then the state will decide whether to charge him and with what crime. And it could be that they turn the whole thing over to the feds. [More...]

According to Routh's Linked In page, he owns a company in Hawaii (on Oahu) called Camp Box. He describes it:

Build simple economical structures to help address the highest homelessness rate in the United States due to unparalleled gentrification. The extremely high cost of land, building materials, labor and ridiculous government regulation makes affordable housing extremely challenging in this environment. We try to build units that fall below permitting requirements with the simplest of construction techniques to make units fast and affordable.

About himself, he writes on Linked in:

Constantly focused on contributing as much as possible to the community, always trying to put in far more than I take out. Work has never been about money rather building frameworks for people to thrive and succeed. Being mechanically minded I enjoy ideas and invention and creative projects with artistic flare. I enjoy building and collaborative projects that allow an unlimited range of ideas and options so see what our minds can create and push the limits of our thoughts. I love the unlimited opportunity right in front of us.

Having passed along any meager remnants of myself in North Carolina and relocated to Oahu, I currently build very simple housing structures for the less fortunate and pursue a wide range of other creative projects towards developing unique products and devices as well as community improvement projects. (My emphasis).

He's really into change.

I am constantly looking for collaborative opportunities which yield the most public impact for the improvement of our society. I would tremendously enjoy the invitation to join any monumental worthy cause to bring about real change in our world.

I am certainly free to relocate to any remote location on the planet that might render the most positive impact, or right around the corner creating something unique and magical. If you are working on any sort of interesting project I would appreciate an invitation to join your team as an economical, energetic unrelenting partner to help push your hopes, ideas and dreams forward as fast and as far as they can go. I look forward to your ideas and input and curious what amazing things we might create and build together.

He attended a city council meeting in 2017. He writes letters to the editor. From a 2021 letter to the editor complaining about noise level of vehicles:

Too much noise can ruin life in paradise

Kuleana, the aloha spirit, a sense of community, caring for the land and caring for our fellow man all seem to be disregarded when it comes to noise.

I have never been anywhere in the world where the people are so disrespectfully loud.

It is a childish competition to see who can be the loudest, as if everyone craves attention they did not get as a kid: the loudest fireworks, loudest motorcycles and scooters, and the loudest music on the planet.

Was no one required to take sociology in college to learn about the public costs of noise pollution? Perhaps we must make it grade-school material so noisemakers can grasp that they are infringing on others’ lives and happiness.

I would like a maximum decibel level added to vehicle inspections. And the fools who use the cannon-sounding fireworks push us to eliminate all fireworks, even the most beautiful.

Please people, noise is just noise and no one wants it here in paradise.

Ryan Routh Kaaawa

He set up a forum site called "Ryan Routh for Mayor" in 2024. Here's one of his pressing issues:

City parks and bathrooms
Post by admin » Sun Jul 07, 2024 2:09 pm

I am baffled by the stealing of showerhead; who and why do our citizens do this? Or does the city have a ban on shower heads so if I put on a plastic shower head the city removes it? Likewise if I donate a volleyball net to a city park city officials must promptly remove it as illegal. I am befuddled by the retarded notion that a donated improvement is not allowed to stay in place because someone authority was threatened and some proper channel was not satisfied; quite bizarre. Perhaps Oahu stays exactly as it is for fear of stepping on someone’s toes; I hope that most would choose to move forward. I am in favor of showerheads on showers, volleyball nets where designed, rollaway pickle-ball nets, spring-loaded shower and water valves, dry-erase boards for park calendar of re-occurring events, locals hired to maintain parks and whatever it takes to make our parks function better for users. Send me a suggestion and we will make it happen.

His Linked In site has two photos of him with jackets and ties. One is a picture of him in front of Congress. The other (posted above) is him standing in front of "Independence Tower" in a square referred to as Maidan, in Kiev, Ukraine. It implies went there there to support the war effort in the Ukraine. (Those are tiny American flags on his tie). He's too old to be a fighter, so I'm not sure how his trip would increase the number of soldiers fighting for the Ukraine, but apparently that was the purpose of his trip. Also, he may have moved from Hawaii back to North Carolina earlier this year but that's not confirmed.

It will be interesting to see what he is charged with. I think a federal charge could be 18 U.S.C. 879, attempted murder of a former President or candidate for President.

Then again, an armed man posing as a U.S. Marshal at a campaign event for RFK, Jr. in 2023 ended up being charged in CA state court with misdemeanor violations of carrying a loaded firearm, carrying a concealed weapon and impersonating an officer. "The LAPD said the man never brandished the gun or threatened anyone." (Via ABC News, no link due to autoplay video you can't shut off). I'm sure some Florida lawyers will be weighing in on TV as to what the charges would be in Florida state court.

Whatever he might be charged with, he's considered innocent until and unless the charges are proved beyond a reasonable doubt (or he pleads guilty).

About the license plate readers: In Routh's case, according to the press conference linked above, they were used to capture a fleeing suspect. But most of the time, they are used as a warrantless end-run around the Fourth Amendment, because of the lack of standards and regulations setting out their accepted use and how long police can hold on to the reams of data captured on license plates of people who are not suspected of criminal activity. Check out this report from the ACLU, You Are Being Tracked:

Automatic license plate readers have the potential to create permanent records of virtually everywhere any of us has driven, radically transforming the consequences of leaving home to pursue private life, and opening up many opportunities for abuse. The tracking of people’s location constitutes a significant invasion of privacy, which can reveal many things about their lives, such as what friends, doctors, protests, political events, or churches a person may visit.

In our society, it is a core principle that the government does not invade people’s privacy and collect information about citizens’ innocent activities just in case they do something wrong. Clear regulations must be put in place to keep the government from tracking our movements on a massive scale.

There needs to be more transparency. The public has a right to know how much state and local police departments are spending on these services, from the cost of cameras, to installation and software fees to training and monitoring fees. Some cops have license plate readers in their vehicle that hook them right up.

If you are pulled over for a speeding violation, the cops should not be able to simultaneosly run a license plate reader check on your car to see where else it's been over an extended period of time so they can claim they have reasonable suspicion to convert the traffic stop into an criminal inquiry, bring out their dog or ask you for permission to search your car. Most drivers, especially those from countries that don't provide the constitutional restraints that we have in the U.S., don't know they can refuse a police request to search. It should be mandatory that police not only return the driver's license, registration and insurance the end of the traffic stop (with any written warning or ticket) but also tell them they are free to go, before converting the traffic stop into a criminal investigation. That moment when the character of the stop changes from a traffic stop to a criminal inquiry is called the "Rodriguez moment", after the 2015 Supreme Court decision in Rodriguez v. United States, available here. A federal district court judge in Colorado (opinion here) relied on Rodriguez and its progeny to suppress methamphetamine found during the search of a vehicle where the cop extended the time needed for the traffic stop by contacting EPIC (El Paso Intelligence Center in San Antonio) to check whether license plate readers turned up an inconsistency in the travel history the driver told the cop.(P.S. the 5th Amendment privilege against self-incrimination is there for a reason. Any criminal defense lawyer will tell you that you don't need to answer questions about your travel route or plans or anything else. Just hand over your documents and zip it. When you get them back, ask if you are free to leave. If the answer is yes, just skedaddle. Don't take the bait when they start to walk away and then turn back to ask you some more questions. Our jails are filled with people who thought if they could just tell their side of the story, the police would see it their way. It rarely happens.

I'm glad no one was killed yesterday. There's a big difference between protesting against a government's policies and taking the law into your own hands by planning, attempting or committing a violent act.

There's also a legal way to prevent Donald Trump from his increasingly unhinged promises to turn this country backwards and reinstate or double down on policies that violate our constitutional rights. It's called voting.

< Harris and Trump Debate: The Three P's | Open Thread: Every Vote Counts >
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  • Display: Sort:
    I very tired (5.00 / 3) (#3)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 09:45:04 AM EST
    Of hearing republican mouthpieces bemoaning how we simply MUST stop seeing political rivals as if they are and existential threat to your existence.

    Possibly good advice once we get past this election and a new republican party is created that is NOT an existential threat to our existence

    Until then Trump and Vance are existential threats.  That doesn't mean they should be killed.
    It also means they can not be seen as anything but what they are.

    Sorry.  Not sorry.


    We (5.00 / 3) (#35)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 18, 2024 at 08:00:17 PM EST
    Just found out their legislation killed a woman here in Georgia. Spare me their whining.

    Parent
    He seems to be what is classically termed (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by ruffian on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 12:04:30 PM EST
    A Bullsh*t Artist

    I see the Feds have charged him with firearms violations. I suppose unless he confesses he was bent on assassination there's no way to prove that unless he left notes, which given the Florida Man IQ is entirely possible.

    Imagining this whole scene...the armed man in the bushes, SS shooting and missing, he flees in a car....does anyone else watch Slow Horses? I am imagining Gary Oldman appearing on the scene just weary and disgusted with everyone.

    It is NOT an assassination (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Chuck0 on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 03:13:11 PM EST
    attempt if he never fired a shot. Period. Stop calling it an "attempt." It was a guy in the vicinity of Orange Moron with an assault weapon. Nothing more.

    You are correct that ordinarily (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Peter G on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 03:46:45 PM EST
    "mere preparation" will not support a criminal conviction for "attempting" to commit a crime. The defendant has to have taken a "substantial step" toward completion. But it does not have to be the "last step."  Aiming the gun such that the barrel was visible through the chain-link fence might very well qualify as a "substantial step" even though, for example, installing the Go-Pro camera might not. But there is an exception to the "substantial step" rule if the defendant's conduct toward completion of the crime is interrupted by law enforcement activity rather than of the suspect's own volition. That rule might apply here also. (A little lesson from the first-year law school course on criminal law I used to teach.)

    Parent
    So, shorter version (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 03:54:07 PM EST
    as far as Republicans are concerned it's A-OK to openly carry an assault weapon anywhere anytime as long as you don't point it at Trump?

    /s

    Parent

    Peter, I wasn't really speaking (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Chuck0 on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 05:31:31 PM EST
    in legal terms. More of a personal opinion. It is my opinion that this was not an "attempt."

    I also just heard Ari Melber use the term "exchange of gunfire." That is not correct. There was no exchange of gunfire. An exchange means two or more entities are shooting at each other. Only the Secret Service fired. There was no "exchange."


    Parent

    The really annoying thing (none / 0) (#14)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 03:23:09 PM EST
    Is they have known about that "spot" forever.
    It's where all the paparazzi photos of Trump on the golf course comes from.
    It's been a famous spot photographers use forever.

    I'm sure nothing has been done because Orange boy likes to have his picture taken.

    Parent

    This (none / 0) (#18)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 05:03:53 PM EST

    Golf Outings Have Long Concerned Secret Service
    September 16, 2024 at 5:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

    "Soon after Donald Trump became president, authorities tried to warn him about the risks posed by golfing at his own courses because of their proximity to public roads. Secret Service agents came armed with unusual evidence: not suspect profiles or spent bullet casings, but simple photographs taken by news crews of him golfing at his private club in Sterling, Va.," the Washington Post reports.

    "They reasoned that if photographers with long-range lenses could get the president in their sights while he golfed, so too could potential gunmen, according to former U.S. officials involved in the discussions who, like most others interviewed for this story."

    "But Trump insisted that his clubs were safe and that he wanted to keep golfing."



    Parent
    Is that where his wife was (none / 0) (#21)
    by jondee on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 06:40:27 PM EST
    buried or did they finally agree on the spot under the concession stand?

    Parent
    Ivana Trump is buried ... (none / 0) (#41)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 10:33:38 AM EST
    ... in "the family plot", a cordoned-off area near the first tee at Trump National Golf Course in Bedminster, New Jersey.

    Parent
    All the talk now (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 07:25:03 PM EST
    is more funding for the Secret Service.  Which is probably not the worst idea considering our political discourse.

    But I have an idea.  Instead of spending millions more to secure a park in the middle of a city how about if Trump plays golf in a place that can be secured.  

    He won't play other courses (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 18, 2024 at 08:07:57 PM EST
    Because he can't cheat and win.

    Parent
    I don't know if it's true (none / 0) (#37)
    by jondee on Wed Sep 18, 2024 at 09:08:37 PM EST
    but I heard that more people get struck by lightening on Florida golf courses than anywhere else. They also get alligators in those ponds fairly frequently.

    Just more stuff for the SS to watch out for. Or not.

    Parent

    I have an aunt and uncle in Naples, FL. (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 10:44:15 AM EST
    There's a gigantic alligator that resides at the nearby Valencia Country Club which local officials estimate to be 13-14 feet in length. She's known affectionately to staff and members as "Big Momma" and it's not uncommon to see her strolling across the golf course from one water hazard to another.

    Parent
    My hsuband (none / 0) (#38)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 19, 2024 at 12:26:25 PM EST
    plays golf. I do know that alligators are an issue but I don't know about Florida and hit by lightening BUT there are probably the highest number of golf players in Florida so it's likely right.

    Parent
    Some place secure that's (none / 0) (#26)
    by jondee on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 08:41:36 PM EST
    also scenic and heavily forested around the perimeter with numerous high vantage points in every direction so the SS can see the golf course.

    Parent
    OT... (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by desertswine on Tue Sep 17, 2024 at 02:10:57 PM EST
    Pagers being carried by Hezbollah operatives exploded simultaneously today in Lebanon. Reportedly more than 2,700 are injured and eight dead. Hospitals filled with the injured.

    So my question is...  who the h .. uses pagers anymore?

    Individuals and groups choose pagers for (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Peter G on Tue Sep 17, 2024 at 02:18:49 PM EST
    communication because they are lo-tech and thus harder to track, trace or tap. But apparently not too lo-tech for Israel to hack or otherwise sabotage.

    Parent
    Enlightening article (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by Peter G on Tue Sep 17, 2024 at 03:24:53 PM EST
    on Hezbollah's recent procurement of old-school pagers, to replace cell phones. Supposedly procured from a manufacturer in Taiwan, which as a fellow "outlaw" nation (in some circles) is in fact a close ally of Israel, raising suspicions that the pagers may have been booby-trapped from the git-go.

    Parent
    Now their Walkie Talkies (none / 0) (#32)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Sep 18, 2024 at 11:19:05 AM EST
    are exploding,  including one at a funeral for a pager casualty

    DONT USE THE MICROWAVE

    Parent

    They need to go back to tin cans... (none / 0) (#33)
    by desertswine on Wed Sep 18, 2024 at 11:23:32 AM EST
    and string.

    Parent
    I don't know (none / 0) (#34)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Sep 18, 2024 at 03:16:58 PM EST
    But I might have checked the Walkies after all the pagers exploded.

    That's just me.

    Parent

    Sorry folks, (5.00 / 3) (#39)
    by Chuck0 on Thu Sep 19, 2024 at 06:31:46 PM EST
    but this terrorism.

    Kind of ingenious, but then so was crashing planes into the World Trade Center and Pentagon. All of it, terrorism.


    People are afraid (none / 0) (#40)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Sep 19, 2024 at 08:30:18 PM EST
    to turn on anything.  From laptops to baby monitors.

    Parent
    As well (none / 0) (#44)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 01:52:09 PM EST
    they should be.

    Parent
    Scary to think about (none / 0) (#46)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 03:45:06 PM EST
    how much planning it took. To find the supply lines.  Bribe people, I guess.  Build the things.  

    I assume the have monitored every text message.

    And boom.

    Parent

    Yes. (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by KeysDan on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 05:02:49 PM EST
    if this was a Netflix spy series, I would think the show was a bit over the top--really. Sci-fi.

    Parent
    Apart from the obvious damage (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 05:15:59 PM EST
    I assume it also tells them, we have been in control of your communication devices.  We know everything about you starting with your home address.

    Parent
    I'll be surprised (none / 0) (#50)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 05:10:01 PM EST
    if there is not a book and/or movie.

    Parent
    I read (none / 0) (#53)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Sep 21, 2024 at 10:54:35 AM EST
    that Hezbollah ordered the pagers from Taiwan who likely installed the software to make them exploded. It seems it is rather low tech figuring out an order and high tech on the end of making them exploded.

    Parent
    I think (none / 0) (#54)
    by BGinCA on Sat Sep 21, 2024 at 12:22:01 PM EST
    the latest explanation is that an Israeli shell company licensed the brand from the Taiwanese maufacturer and produced the pagers and installed the explosives. per NY Times

    Parent
    That is (none / 0) (#55)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Sep 21, 2024 at 04:16:14 PM EST
    why it always seems to take a few days to get the correct information. The first news is likely missing some facts.

    Parent
    CBS (none / 0) (#58)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Sep 22, 2024 at 10:40:49 AM EST
    Nice that they put (none / 0) (#60)
    by jondee on Sun Sep 22, 2024 at 02:23:00 PM EST
    her name out there.

    Parent
    You almost have to admire the hubris (5.00 / 4) (#45)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 03:41:46 PM EST
    it takes to use a conference on antisemitism to repeat the oldest antisemitic trope ever.
    Blame the Jews

    Trump Says Jewish Voters Would Have `Lot to Do With a Loss'

    Is winning even the plan anymore?

    Takes some deep thinking (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by Peter G on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 04:20:51 PM EST
    "Jews should vote for me because I am more closely aligned with Netanyahu than are the Democrats. If not enough people vote for me, I will lose the election. If I lose the election, it will be the fault of the people who didn't vote for me." Actually, the last two sentences are mostly correct. Except instead of "fault" I would say "credit." The first sentence is doubly fallacious. First, Tr*mp assumes the antisemitic trope of dual loyalty (that American Jews are more committed to the welfare of Israel than they are to the best interests of the United States). And second, that Netanyahu's policies are good for Israel.

    Parent
    Unfortunately (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 04:48:51 PM EST
    it doesn't need to make sense to put a target on Jews if Trump tells his flying monkeys it's their fault.

    With anyone else this would be a throw away line.

     But bad things happen to people Trump says cost him the election before and this will be worse cause he's not running to be president.  He's running to stay out of prison.
    Like Beebee.

    Parent

    So once the Jews give (none / 0) (#52)
    by jondee on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 06:58:53 PM EST
    the go-ahead, Trump gets elected. That simple.

    Puts me in mind of that notorious 1888 grafitto: The Juwes are the men that will not be blamed for noffing.

    Parent

    Jews constitute 2.4% of the U.S. population. (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sun Sep 22, 2024 at 01:05:47 PM EST
    Transgendered folks are but 0.4% of us. 5.5% of us identify as LGBTQ. 11.2% are Mexican descent, and 14.6% are Black.

    Somehow, if we listen to the nonsense emanating from Donald Trump, his campaign and the GOP, each of these demographics just by themselves constitute a mortal peril to the White, God-fearing people of Rock Ridge.

    The road to Hell is paved with MAGA Republicans.

    Parent

    Exactly. Let's assume that Jewish Americans, (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by Peter G on Sun Sep 22, 2024 at 04:19:36 PM EST
    at 2.4% of the population (combining Jews of all different political orientations, with many different opinions about what U.S. policy toward Israel and the Middle East should be), have more than 2.4% of the political power and influence (due perhaps to higher than average levels of educational attainment, economic success, and political engagement), maybe even double or triple their numbers. That's still under 10%. When Tr*mp loses, why won't it be the "fault" (i.e., to the credit) of the 80% of Black voters who favor Harris, and/or the 65% of women voters?

    Parent
    It's definitely an antisemitic (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by jondee on Mon Sep 23, 2024 at 12:16:37 AM EST
    trope whether Trump is aware of it or not.

    It's the kind of result you get when you surround a grandiose person with enabling sycophants 24/7.

    Parent

    New pro-Tr*mp ad targeted at Jewish voters (none / 0) (#165)
    by Peter G on Sun Oct 20, 2024 at 02:08:16 PM EST
    filmed at our local Jewish deli. The Township where we live, in the near-in Philadelphia suburbs, is about 20% Jewish, although the neighborhood around this deli is probably 60% or more, mostly Orthodox. (The Township as a whole votes about 75% Dem.) Paid for by the Republican Jewish Coalition ("RJC Victory Fund"). Pleased to see that the most common comment on the posting of the ad on Twitter is "For shame."
       I read that Musk's pro-Tr*mp one-man SuperPAC funded twin fraudulent micro-targeted ads, both purporting to be pro-Harris. One of them (targeted at Muslim voters in Michigan) claims that Harris is a puppet of her Jewish husband and a tool of Israel, supporting war crimes. The other (targeted at Jewish voters in Florida and Pennsylvania) claims that Harris is an anti-semitic puppet of "the squad" and supports the destruction of Israel. Anyone have links for those?

    Parent
    Chris Hayes (5.00 / 1) (#167)
    by KeysDan on Sun Oct 20, 2024 at 03:12:25 PM EST
    reported on Musk being "a raving reactionary" who provided a $75 million contribution to the PACs that produced these gross ads on his Friday show on MSNBC.  (Note: I am having difficulty with the link, but it from The Wrap, October 18, 2024, "Chris Hayes Calls "Unbearably Awkward Elon Musk a Supernova of Charisma".  

    Parent
    Try (5.00 / 1) (#169)
    by KeysDan on Sun Oct 20, 2024 at 03:16:30 PM EST
    The owner says he wasn't expressing (5.00 / 2) (#171)
    by Peter G on Mon Oct 21, 2024 at 03:40:11 PM EST
    his own opinion by agreeing to allow his deli to be used as a setting for the deceitful ad that claims that to oppose anti-semitism you'd have to support Tr*mp. Deli owner claims to be "undecided." What a dope.

    Parent
    Those coffee mugs, btw (none / 0) (#166)
    by Peter G on Sun Oct 20, 2024 at 02:26:31 PM EST
    say "Life, Liberty, Pastrami" on one side, with the logo of the deli on the other.

    Parent
    Off-topic, but I hope KeysDan is okay. (5.00 / 2) (#64)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Sep 27, 2024 at 12:13:52 PM EST
    The outer bands of Hurricane Helene managed to take a pretty nasty swipe at southern Florida yesterday, with a lot of storm surge, rain and flooding. The video of Key West reminded me of what happened here in 2018 when Hurricane Lane dumped over three feet of rain here on Hilo and the east side of Hawaii Island. That was a real mess.

    Thank you, (5.00 / 4) (#65)
    by KeysDan on Fri Sep 27, 2024 at 01:23:26 PM EST
    Key West ,fortunately, was not in the eye of the storm, but did encounter  choppy waters and wind.  TV shots did show the big waves crashing against the  iconic Southernmost  buoy.  We haven't heard from Fishcamp who is in Islamorada, in the middle  Keys , but I believe  all of the Keys are OK.

    Parent
    This satellite image of the power outage... (5.00 / 2) (#83)
    by desertswine on Fri Oct 04, 2024 at 10:31:23 AM EST
    in the wake of the hurricane dramatically shows the path of the hurricane through the southeast.

    Parent
    Vance got (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by KeysDan on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 09:38:25 PM EST
    worse as the debate progressed; Wals got better. For Vance,  what, at first,  seemed to be polish,   was soon revealed to be oleaginous. For Walz, what,, at first,  was nervousness,  evolved into confidence.  The slickness of Vance, at first, served him well in  this debate format, whereas, the folksiness  of Wals  required some adjustment to the format.  

    I think Walz killed it (5.00 / 2) (#75)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 09:48:02 PM EST
    Vance just seemed like a slimy toady.

    It's was stunning he would not admit Ttump lost.

    Parent

    L'Shana Tovah (5.00 / 5) (#76)
    by Peter G on Wed Oct 02, 2024 at 04:43:17 PM EST
    A sweet (and one can only pray) a more peaceful and democratic (Jewish) new year to all.

    Just watched Liz Cheney (5.00 / 1) (#77)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Oct 03, 2024 at 05:50:20 PM EST
    give a helluva good campaign speech for Kamala.

    "So what" (5.00 / 1) (#79)
    by KeysDan on Thu Oct 03, 2024 at 08:48:31 PM EST
    The review of the series of crimes Trump committed to stay in office despite having lost was effective.   The "so what" response of Trump after hearing from an aide that the J6 insurrectionists may kill Pence was a show stopper---the crowd wasn't sure Liz was being serious.   She repeated it.
     Note: the "so what"was in Jack Smith's filing.


    Parent
    Whoda thunk (5.00 / 1) (#84)
    by Chuck0 on Fri Oct 04, 2024 at 10:34:53 AM EST
    we'd all be clapping for Liz Cheney in 2024 on liberal leaning blog.

    Parent
    Liz Cheney is our sister warrior ... (none / 0) (#95)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Mon Oct 07, 2024 at 01:01:15 AM EST
    ... in our struggle to keep our democracy. I'm glad she's on our side. When Kamala Harris wins, I hope she finds a position for her, perhaps as Ambassador to the U.K. or some other high-profile diplomatic post. She's earned it.

    I look forward to the day when the storm has finally passed, and we can once again start disagreeing with each other over tax policy.

    Aloha.

    Parent

    That (none / 0) (#78)
    by FlJoe on Thu Oct 03, 2024 at 06:49:14 PM EST
    was impressive.

    Parent
    do you have a link for that? (none / 0) (#80)
    by leap2 on Thu Oct 03, 2024 at 10:04:11 PM EST
    n/t

    Parent
    You (none / 0) (#81)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Oct 04, 2024 at 08:10:07 AM EST
    thank you, Cap'tn (none / 0) (#85)
    by leap2 on Fri Oct 04, 2024 at 10:45:02 AM EST
    n/t

    Parent
    This link (none / 0) (#86)
    by KeysDan on Fri Oct 04, 2024 at 11:08:26 AM EST
    to a WaPo article presents the story of "so what", as the response of Trump to safety concerns for Pence. The primary source is Special Counsel Jack Smith's filing regarding Trump v US.  The Captain has provided a link to the entire filing elsewhere.

    Parent
    The last known survivor... (5.00 / 3) (#88)
    by desertswine on Fri Oct 04, 2024 at 01:28:42 PM EST
    among some 770 crew members who manned the Japanese airborne armada that attacked Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941, has died. He was 106.

    Masamitsu Yoshioka

    "Now I think of the men who were on board those ships we torpedoed. I think of the people who died because of me," Mr. Yoshioka said. "They were young men, just like we were. I am so sorry about it; I hope there will not be any more wars."

    Why are Americans so stupid? (5.00 / 2) (#90)
    by Chuck0 on Sat Oct 05, 2024 at 03:29:16 PM EST
    My wife just came home from Walmart. They are completely put of TP. Seems there was a run on TP because of the port strike? WTF? I know this because my orange supporting neighbor had said something earlier in the week, before the strike started.

    TP is not imported! Most, if not all, TP sold in the US is made, wait for it, in the US. Scott is made right over in Chester, PA. About 100 miles from me. Green Bay, WI is the "TP capital". If the truckers or railroad workers were on strike, they might have a reasonable fear. But a port strike?

    I explained this to my idiot neighbor, she seemed unconvinced. Low information, low intelligence voters are ruining this country.

    I just had the same experience (none / 0) (#92)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Oct 05, 2024 at 03:43:47 PM EST
    and the same reaction.
    They were not completely sold out they just didn't have the kind I use.

    Still so f'ing stupid.

    Parent

    It must have been (none / 0) (#93)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Oct 05, 2024 at 03:44:54 PM EST
    a Facebook thing.

    Quick! Run out and buy paper products.

    Parent

    I'm picturing Trump (none / 0) (#96)
    by jondee on Mon Oct 07, 2024 at 11:59:10 AM EST
    pulling up in a big truck and throwing it to people. Through a hole in the bullet proof glass.

    Because Krazy Kamala doesn't want people to have basic necessities.

    Parent

    To Magas (5.00 / 2) (#97)
    by jondee on Mon Oct 07, 2024 at 01:33:14 PM EST
    Trump doling out paper products is the equivalent of Jesus dividing the loaves and fishes for the multitude.

    Parent
    Paper product shelves are full (5.00 / 2) (#99)
    by fishcamp on Mon Oct 07, 2024 at 05:56:09 PM EST
    at the Publics here in Islamorada.  We  were hit with one wind and rain band a few hours ago that shuffled the porch furniture around.  I don't expect anything serious  down. here since we're so far from the hurricane, and I think it will move a bit farther north before touching down...  I'm certainly glad I don't live in in the Tampa area.  Good luck to those three and a half million folks.

    Parent
    Current (5.00 / 2) (#100)
    by FlJoe on Mon Oct 07, 2024 at 07:20:55 PM EST
    forecast has center passing 50 miles NW of me. hopefully down to a high end cat 1 by then, depending on the exact track and how big the eye gets it;s pretty likely we get part of the eye wall.

    Parent
    MGT has finally figured out climate change, (none / 0) (#103)
    by Chuck0 on Tue Oct 08, 2024 at 03:59:01 PM EST
    It really is a hoax. A myth. All along it's the Democrats controlling the weather.

    /s


    Parent

    You wonder (none / 0) (#104)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 08, 2024 at 04:53:56 PM EST
    Is it possible she believes this shite

    I thought she was just a con artist but I dunno.

    I always thought no one really believes it and it was just about stirring stuff up but I've decided there are people who believe all on it.  FEMA is confiscating property in NC and "they" control the weather.

    Maybe she believes it.  She looks stupid enough.

    Parent

    She saw that Jew Moses (none / 0) (#107)
    by jondee on Wed Oct 09, 2024 at 01:21:08 PM EST
    controlling the weather in The Ten Commandments and here we are.

    Parent
    Stay safe (none / 0) (#106)
    by MO Blue on Tue Oct 08, 2024 at 10:18:46 PM EST
    Hopefully Milton will not cause you any damage

    Parent
    Better yet (none / 0) (#94)
    by Ga6thDem on Sun Oct 06, 2024 at 11:37:10 AM EST
    people believe that the  government has bulldozed Blowing Rock NC and is claiming that the government is taking the land because of one  person saying it on Facebook. Haitians are killing cats level of stupidity. At least the toilet paper  run can be based on an actual  event--potential port strike even if the reaction to it is stupid

    Parent
    This is what "returning the issue of abortion (5.00 / 8) (#98)
    by Peter G on Mon Oct 07, 2024 at 05:11:22 PM EST
    to the states" looks like in the real world: A state legislature, in defiance of public opinion and federal law, can make it a crime for doctors to provide urgent care in the emergency room to women who may be dying. By virtue of a Supreme Court order today refusing to intervene.

    An (5.00 / 5) (#101)
    by KeysDan on Mon Oct 07, 2024 at 08:32:13 PM EST
    unconscionable order.

    Parent
    Well, it's an ... (5.00 / 3) (#113)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Oct 12, 2024 at 05:08:09 AM EST
    ... unconscionable Supreme Court.

    Parent
    It's eerily quiet down here. (5.00 / 6) (#105)
    by fishcamp on Tue Oct 08, 2024 at 08:00:10 PM EST
    The calm before the storm.  Too many people trying to evacuate north from Tampa have clogged the highways so many have decided to come south to Miami and the Florida keys to escape the wrath.  This will be tough for them since we will probably lose electricity for a while.  My trusty 2K Honda generator is readyr to run the fridge, a few lights and is balanced to charge computers and other devices.  I'm so sorry for the folks that got wiped out from hurricane Helene recently, and now have to face Milton.

    We had also planned to evacuate but I (5.00 / 4) (#172)
    by vml68 on Mon Oct 21, 2024 at 06:59:53 PM EST
    changed my mind at the last minute. The thought of being stuck in traffic for hours was not very appealing. My husband who wanted to leave was not at all happy.

    We had sustained a little bit of roof damage during Helene which we were able to get taken care off the day before Milton hit.  

    Even though Milton's winds were even stronger, our house did not sustain any wind damage. We lost power for a few days but my wonderful neighbours let me run a long cord to their generator so I could keep my fridge and chest freezer running and keep phones charged. (Yes, we are idiots who live in FL and don't own a generator!)
    We were able to cook as we have a gas stove and I could use matches to light it and to my surprise the gas water heater also worked!

    Parent

    So glad (5.00 / 2) (#173)
    by KeysDan on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 11:52:23 AM EST
    to learn you are OK and that your house sustained minimal structural damage.  Sadly, there is  always the clean-up.   Evacuation  decisions are not easy ones to make, from  weighing the risks of staying against  concerns  such as stalling on  flooded or  impassible roads.   And, if you have pets, another  worry is introduced.

    Parent
    I'm glad you, FLJoe and Fishcamp are ok, too. (5.00 / 2) (#185)
    by vml68 on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 06:01:49 PM EST
    Hope that is also true for other TLer's affected by Helene and Milton.

    I don't know why but for some reason I thought you had left FL for IL.

    I have 2 dogs which was one factor in my decision to stay. One, a 2 year old Setter with way too much energy to be stuck in a car for hours and another a then 12 week old puppy that has not yet completed his vaccination series. With Parvo quite prevalent in FL, I just did not want to risk having him out in multiple public places/rest stops. Also, frequent potty breaks are tough to do when you are in stop and go traffic for hours.

    Parent

    I am exhausted. (5.00 / 3) (#108)
    by Chuck0 on Wed Oct 09, 2024 at 04:42:55 PM EST
    What happened to this country? I'm tired of the lies and crazy nonsense coming out of the GQP nowadays. There was a day when these people would be laughed off the stage. There was day when these people lived under a rock and stayed there.

    A crazy orange haired baboon stokes the flame of craziness and HE'S THE STANDARD BEARER FOR A MAJOR PARTY FOR PRESIDENT!!!! What's worse is the people who intend to vote for him. I ask again, what happened to this country. How is the election close???

    On the plus side, got my ballot yesterday in the mail. It goes back tomorrow. Harris/Walz, Stelson and Bob Casey.


    Trump's playing a character (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by jondee on Wed Oct 09, 2024 at 08:31:09 PM EST
    and not one modeled after Lincoln, Jefferson, and FDR. He's molded his schtick to be like someone WWF fans looked up to when they were 11.

    Making himself stupid and them stupid. But enough people like the way it makes them feel for him to be popular.


    Parent

    How bad is Smith's appendix? (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by jmacWA on Sat Oct 12, 2024 at 06:52:46 AM EST
    Lyle Denniston has another easily understandable post on Trump's current predicament.  It seems to me that if Trump is now trying to keep the appendix from Smith's report private, it must contain much more damaging material than has already been let out.

    Will the Supreme Court intervene on Trump's behalf?  I would like to think no, but John Roberts and his cohorts on the right have made it hard, at least for me, to assume they will not simply do Trump's bidding.

    Polls polls polls (5.00 / 2) (#116)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Oct 12, 2024 at 05:48:38 PM EST
    I think the polls are wrong.  I think there is an undercounted dem advantage.  Partially (mostly) reproductive rights but also a quiet anti Trump vote.

    It's gotten so crazy.  He has gotten so crazy I really think there will be a not insignificant number of people from "Trump families" that vote for Harris.  Anecdotally I know a couple.

    There will be chaos after the election no matter what but I don't think Harris winning or losing will come down to one or two states.  I predict a big EC win.

    And I think republicans are going to lose all over.
    Ted, maybe Rick.  I think in the tough senate races the abortion vote will win.

    We keep the Senate and take the House.

    It's going to be ok.


    I am convinced the Orange felon (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by Chuck0 on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 11:11:03 AM EST
    has dementia. I experienced that with my mother.

    His rhetoric is getting nastier and nastier. His speeches are more incoherent every day. Look what he said in Detroit. What sane or mentally stable politician would do that?

    It is more than astounding and demoralizing that there is still a large number of so-called Americans that will still vote for this crazed, demented degenerate.

    I agree with you on the polls. Most pollsters contact "likely" voters. There are millions of new voters. Those people don't qualify as a "likely" voter because, wait for it, they never voted before.

    Parent

    The last 2 presidential elections (none / 0) (#125)
    by CaptHowdy on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 04:02:33 PM EST
    especially 2016 but also 20 pollsters underrated Trump voters.  
    IMO they have now "overweighted" them.

    In addition to what you mentioned about likely voters.  I really think half the voters who vote in this election will never have been reached for a poll

    And fundamentally like Dan says, I simply don't believe the it could be true.  I know there's a cult but the 25-30%.  I think the cult is being polled.

    Parent

    I've given this some additional thought with (5.00 / 1) (#134)
    by Chuck0 on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 05:04:24 PM EST
    regard to PA. Looking at the last three elections in PA, there is no way the Orange Felon will win in PA.

    10 years ago, PA rejected the incumbent GOP governor, Tom Corbett, and elected Tom Wolf. Then rejected MAGA Scott Wagner for Tom Wolf. Two years ago, PA rejected MAGA Mastriano for Josh Shapiro.

    John Fetterman was elected to the US Senate over Dr. Oz. Oz was less MAGA and may just have been seen as a carpetbagger from NJ.

    The Orange Felon won PA by just 44,000 votes in 2016. I think this was largely due to dislike of HRC. And face it, she was not a candidate on the campaign trail. My neighbor at the time, changed his vote at the last minute after the Comey email debacle.

    Dems have taken the House in the PA legislature.

    I think PA is bluer than polls show. I don't see how this Commonwealth is going to pivot for the Orange Moron in 2024 given the current track record. I don't think that is going happen.

    I even believe that Scott Perry will finally be ousted from the US House (fingers crossed).

    Parent

    I keep (5.00 / 1) (#158)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Oct 19, 2024 at 08:27:15 AM EST
    reminding myself that John Kerry won PA in 2004 with the wind against his back. 2016 was a freak accident largely due to Comey basically breaking the law.

    Parent
    Have you seen this (none / 0) (#135)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 05:18:35 PM EST
    He just stopped taking questions and swayed back and forth with Kristi Noem (who looked a little like WTF) for 39 minutes.  And then walked off the stage.

    Today they cancelled the CNBC interview.  Trump is unraveling.

    Trump sways and bops to music for 39 minutes in bizarre town hall episode



    Parent

    That event was held in a "red" corner (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by Peter G on Wed Oct 16, 2024 at 12:37:21 PM EST
    of Montgomery County, PA.  MontCo (where I live) is one of the largest counties in the state (with an abnormally high voter turnout, too) and went more than 62% Biden in 2020. Holding a bogus "rally" there in a small arena is a joke, in terms of building a winning campaign.
      What do our TL gay culture experts make of Tr*mp's obsession with such music as "YMCA" and Rufus Wainwright's version of "Hallelujah" (both of which he uses despite cease-and-desist demands from the artists)?  I get "It's a Man's World" as an indirect message not to vote for that woman. Does he think "YMCA" is also about male dominance?
      My wife and I voted ("mail ballot" via dropbox) yesterday, btw. We are not going back.

    Parent
    I assumed (5.00 / 2) (#147)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 16, 2024 at 01:30:43 PM EST
    he assumed Hallelujah was about religion.  Which it certainly is not.

    Parent
    This (none / 0) (#136)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 05:20:31 PM EST
    Out (none / 0) (#137)
    by FlJoe on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 06:53:32 PM EST
    Of the weird, into bizarre. Won't move the polls though, strange days.

    Parent
    It was both insane and brilliant (none / 0) (#138)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 07:34:50 PM EST
    It was him saying, in fact he actually said "who wants to listen to a bunch of questions", I don't have to do or even say anything.  I can just stand here and sway like a mental patient to stolen music for 40 minutes and they love it.

    And they did.  The Trumpers loved it.

    But it's not the way to win an election.  I don't think he thinking about winning anymore.  

    Just doing as much damage as possible.

    Parent

    He has no intention of winning. (5.00 / 3) (#141)
    by Chuck0 on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 08:36:08 PM EST
    Never did. He intends to just take it. Through the courts, or with chaos and violence. He believes he has the Supreme Court in his pocket and they will give him the presidency.

    When Harris is called the winner on November 7th or 8th (it won't be called on the 5th), all hell is going to break loose. Hopefully smart governors will have the National Guard on standby. It think it's going to be that bad.

    Parent

    Oh so do i (none / 0) (#142)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 09:16:18 PM EST
    But I think the hopeful part of that is Biden and the NSA and FBI and those guys see it as clearly as we do.

    I really think that after 2020 Biden is going to be saying "make my day".

    It almost worked last time because Trump was in charge.

    Not in charge anymore.

    But I totally agree, it has not been about winning in any traditional way for a while.  If it ever was  
    But he he totally delusional enough to try it.  

    The question is, will the mob show up.
    They haven't really been showing up much.

    Parent

    If he calls for violence in the streets (none / 0) (#148)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 16, 2024 at 06:23:08 PM EST
    ...tell me you can not imagine him doing that..

    It could be his final undoing.  
    Open rebellion and treason.  Let's go.  Charges worthy of his conduct.

    He won't win.  More extremists will be in jail.
     I see a silver-like lining.

    Parent

    The (none / 0) (#149)
    by FlJoe on Wed Oct 16, 2024 at 07:28:02 PM EST
    CT in me expects violence on election day to suppress the vote in certain neighborhoods.

    A couple of dozen well trained snipers could swing the election, Eric Prince probably has that many on speed dial.


    Parent

    Another good thing (5.00 / 2) (#154)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Oct 18, 2024 at 06:36:56 PM EST
    This is good news. (5.00 / 4) (#161)
    by Chuck0 on Sat Oct 19, 2024 at 05:19:38 PM EST
    My sister is one of those overseas PA voters. She lives in Kathmandu now and has no plan to ever return to the US. She has been using my address for a US mailing address for a number of years. With that, I persuaded her to register to vote here in PA while she was here a few weeks ago. She is a US citizen and has to vote somewhere, so I see no reason it can't be PA. I am her only living family.


    Parent
    I think a theme they might get to with ads (none / 0) (#150)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 16, 2024 at 08:17:55 PM EST
    is "he's running to stay out of prison".

    Because hecdid clearly is.  There is nothing he won't do.  Not sure how much beyond aggravation he can do.

    A civil war would be quick.


    Parent

    A good thing (5.00 / 2) (#151)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 16, 2024 at 08:25:51 PM EST

    Judge Invalidates Georgia's Election Certification Rules
    October 16, 2024 at 7:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 126 Comments

    "A judge invalidated seven new Georgia election rules Wednesday, including requirements for a `reasonable inquiry' before elections are certified, hand counts on election night and additional access for partisan poll watchers," the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

    CNN: "Among the rules Fulton County Superior Court Judge Thomas Cox said violated state law are two that would require county election officials to conduct a `reasonable inquiry' into election results before certifying them and allow them to `examine all election related documentation created during the conduct of elections prior to certification of results.'"



    Parent
    This (none / 0) (#157)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Oct 19, 2024 at 08:24:26 AM EST
    election board to me represents the cowardice or corruption of Brian Kemp. He nominated some of those clowns and the legislature installed the rest of them.

    Parent
    Or (none / 0) (#139)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 07:40:26 PM EST
    if he imagine this is the way to win he really has lost his mind.  

    Parent
    Yes, (none / 0) (#143)
    by KeysDan on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 10:12:13 PM EST
    he turned his town hall into a "music".   The media tried to sane wash  it into "a musical".   And, Kristi Noem seemed to be longing for her comfort zone down at the gravel pit.  Trump appeared to be at his rhythmic best with the Village People's "YMCA".  And, his MAGAts, too.  

    Parent
    Excellent psychological analysis (5.00 / 2) (#162)
    by Peter G on Sat Oct 19, 2024 at 06:56:37 PM EST
    of Tr*mp by Will Saletan (my third cousin, btw), concluding that the principal reason not to vote for Tr*mp is that "he is a psychopath." Draws a straight line between Tr*mp's treatment of women and his statements about election results. Will is a moderate conservative, with whom I do not ordinarily agree.

    Parent
    Trump's (none / 0) (#164)
    by KeysDan on Sun Oct 20, 2024 at 11:58:01 AM EST
    prefrontal cortex seems to be melting rapidly. In his Pennsylvania rally yesterday he rhapsodized endlessly about the late Arnold Palmer's junk, recalling how he was a real man as attested to by those in the club house gang showers.  The WaPo and most of the media are reporting this bizarro  discussion, except the  NY Times that sane washed this rant as Trump "told golf stories".

    Parent
    Every Republican (none / 0) (#168)
    by jmacWA on Sun Oct 20, 2024 at 03:16:02 PM EST
    Should be asked to comment on Trump's obsession with Arnold Palmers ** interestingly when asked Speaker Johnson had no comment.  Ask them ALL.

    Parent
    What IS with the GQPs (none / 0) (#176)
    by Chuck0 on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:07:34 PM EST
    creepy interest in what's in other people's pants??

    Parent
    Repression (5.00 / 1) (#178)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:14:08 PM EST
    That's what it does to ya

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#177)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:13:32 PM EST
    there was his the Speakers prissy "don't SAY  it again!"

    With Jake Tapper.  It's worth googling

    Parent

    Here is the actual transcription (none / 0) (#144)
    by leap2 on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 11:49:56 PM EST
    of some of FatNixon's townhall "speech," put into quatrain format by a commenter on another blog:

    "My Very Favorite Paper"
    A poem by the 45th President of the United States, Donald J Trump

    (Dementia Quatrain format by Little Davey)

    [Remember, this is an actual bleeping transcript]

    Why don't we do it?
    And I mean this if my guys can hear me.
    Two things.
    Put up the chart.

    My favorite chart.
    My all time favorite chart.
    And let's listen to Pavarotti sing Ave Maria.
    Can you hear that?
    They gave me the Ave Maria with no voice.

    There it is.
    That's my favorite piece of paper anywhere in the world.
    I sleep with it every night.
    I kiss it.
    I kiss it.

    And you see those numbers, by the way, for those that we talked about, you know, the border, when you're talking about the border.
    Look at the numbers.
    That was the lowest it ever was right there.
    That was the last day I was in office.

    And we're going to get it lower than that.
    But we're going to let people come in.
    We're going to let people come in.

    So very, very important.
    But there's one of my most favorite.
    If I didn't turn to the right, I wouldn't be here with you right now.
    So it's sort of a cruel world. But I was very proud of that before the fact.

    Now, even if it had lousy numbers, I would love that piece of paper a lot.
    So put on Pavarotti singing Ave Maria.
    Nice and loud.
    Turn it up louder.

    We want a little action here. Turn it up louder.

    [Music plays]

    Beautiful.

    Let's not do any more questions.
    Let's just listen to music.
    Let's make it into our music.
    Who the hell wants to hear questions, right?

    Isn't that beautiful, though?
    It's just so beautiful.
    And we played that in Butler, Pennsylvania.
    We had a moment of silence.

    And then we had the bells of Notre Dame go off.
    And then we had a great opera singer, Christopher, who was so incredible, a great, great opera singer.
    That's Pavarotti.
    Pavarotti, I guess, is, I actually asked Christopher, I said, your voice is incredible.

    How does it compare to Pavarotti?
    No, no, no, sir.
    He was the maestro.
    He was the greatest of them all.

    And this man's voice, you all probably heard it.
    He was phenomenal.
    But he said, no, no, no, Pavarotti was the greatest.

    Maybe we'll play "Time to Say Goodbye" when we end, OK?

    It's shocking to read Dump's actual string of words. The guy is losing it, and the media treats this as a real candidate. It's nuts and malpractice and exceedingly dangerous.

    Parent

    I think his favorite "chart" (none / 0) (#145)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 16, 2024 at 08:17:17 AM EST
    Is a slide that said

    TRUMP WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING

    Parent

    We're seeing record numbers of ... (5.00 / 3) (#153)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Oct 18, 2024 at 05:40:34 PM EST
    ... new voter registrations, particularly among young women. Pollsters, on the other hand, tend to put great weight behind the concept of the "likely voter", which most of them define as someone who has cast a ballot in the past four consecutive elections. The problem with that definition is that it tends to mostly exclude or greatly discount voters who are ages 18-29, who have turned out in droves since 2018 and tended to favor Democrats quite heavily.

    Another measure polls consider is voter enthusiasm. There was a long period of time (1980-2008) when Republicans - particularly culture warriors - tended be much more enthusiastic than Democratic voters. But that hasn't been the case the last three election cycles, when Democratic enthusiasm has at least matched that of their GOP counterparts if not actually surpassed it.

    Political pundits and pollsters who prognosticate otherwise - and there are a sizable number of them - are trapped in an old comfort zone that's no longer necessarily applicable to the present circumstances. I mean, how many times have we heard pundits marvel over the last four years at the fact that Donald Trump received 74 million votes in 2020, more than any Republican in history, while mostly ignoring the parallel fact that Joe Biden received 81 million votes that same year? To be sure, Trump's vote tally increased 11 million in four years, but Biden likewise increased the Democrats' turnout by an even more impressive 15 million.

    So, yeah, Cap'n, your instincts are probably correct. Democratic turnout is likely being discounted even as enthusiasm has increased. How else to explain Kamala Harris' campaign raising over $1 billion in small donor contributions just since July.

    Further, the folks in the Harris-Walz campaign brain trust probably sense that, as well. Kamala's contentious half-hour interview with the Botox-addicted Bret Baier on Fox News last Wednesday night was a bold power move on her part, one which couldn't help but project her inherent strength to even the most MAGA of GOP viewers. That's in very sharp contrast to her opponent Trump's obviously disheveled, flagging and often incoherent appearances at his own recent campaign events, including that "women's town hall" only six hours earlier on the same network.

    Personally, I'm sensing that Trump's worn out not only himself physically but also his welcome amongst many of his supporters as well. It's hard to sustain such a high-intensity level of political outrage for an extended period of time, even if you're being paid to do so. That could adversely impact GOP turnout, though I wouldn't bank on it just yet. Because if that does happen, it will only be apparent after the fact as election results are reported and posted.

    Further compounding the MAGA GOP's problem is the wild card "Never Trump" GOP voter, who constitutes perhaps 15% of the Republican electorate. At best, Trump's been hoping they'd either vote 3rd party or stay home. But if they're actively flipping to Harris, that's highly problematic to Trump's chances at belated re-election to the office he lost four years ago.

    So, all told, I'm cautiously optimistic, as you are. I like Kamala Harris' odds at this point, and I think there's even a fair chance that the election may not be nearly as close as all the Chicken Littles and Henny Pennys on cable TV news are predicting.

    Aloha.

    Parent

    We have (none / 0) (#159)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Oct 19, 2024 at 08:30:50 AM EST
    been over performing the polls on an average of 8 points but I am still nervous. These young women couldn't be bothered to vote in 2022 to get rid of Brian Kemp who instated the abortion ban. Maybe it takes a few years and women dying for it to sink in.

    Parent
    PS (none / 0) (#117)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Oct 12, 2024 at 05:51:34 PM EST
    one of the people I mentioned said they might not vote at all.  That works too.

    Parent
    It sure is (none / 0) (#119)
    by KeysDan on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 10:44:25 AM EST
    difficult to believe that the race is tied. The vice President with a long period of public service advancing a program of improvement and progress for all Americans. An old, nutty former president who defiled the office of President with criminality and corruption along with a program of regression for all American except for tax cuts for corporations and Americans of great wealth.  A choice between hope and good governance and retribution and carnage.

    Parent
    Don't underestimate the power of... (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by desertswine on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 10:39:29 PM EST
    racism in America.  I believe that is the power behind Trump's base.

    Parent
    Apparently, the Explanation is (2.00 / 1) (#122)
    by RickyJim on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 01:05:27 PM EST
    anger about current Biden policies which it is assumed Harris has some responsibilities.  Also, not everybody finds Harris such a good candidate.  Here are some critiques:
    Link 1
    Link 2
    I agree that the details of how they decided that Trump wouldn't be so much worse are lacking.

    Parent
    The critiques cited (5.00 / 3) (#123)
    by KeysDan on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 02:30:27 PM EST
    are anything but persuasive in explaining why some do not find Vice President Harris to be a good candidate.

    Link 1. exclaimed that Ari Melber, an MSNBC host, was "shocked" that Trump's former ambassador to the EU, Gordon Sondland, has now changed his mind about Trump's fitness for the presidency.

    Sondland was among the show's panelists who were in the Trump Administration  along with the jailed Trump aide, Peter Navarro, and Sarah Matthews, Deputy Press Secretary, who immediately resigned following the Jan 6 attempted coup d'etat.

    Ms. Matthews testified against Trump at the Jan 6 House Committee Hearing and stands by her testimony; Mr. Navarro refused to testify and is steadfast in his support for Trump; Mr. Sondland was a star witness against Trump in the first senate impeachment trial, but now recants. And, does so without any clearly stated reason.  The hazy reason expressed  for his vacillation  reflects more poorly on himself than it does on his view of the vice President. Indeed, he embarrassed himself.

    Link 2.  It is difficult to take seriously Norman Finkelstein's criticism of Kamala Harris when he starts off by referring to her as a "laughing cow".


    Parent

    The critiques cited (none / 0) (#124)
    by KeysDan on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 02:30:47 PM EST
    are anything but persuasive in explaining why some do not find Vice President Harris to be a good candidate.

    Link 1. exclaimed that Ari Melber, an MSNBC host, was "shocked" that Trump's former ambassador to the EU, Gordon Sondland, has now changed his mind about Trump's fitness for the presidency.

    Sondland was among the show's panelists who were in the Trump Administration  along with the jailed Trump aide, Peter Navarro, and Sarah Matthews, Deputy Press Secretary, who immediately resigned following the Jan 6 attempted coup d'etat.

    Ms. Matthews testified against Trump at the Jan 6 House Committee Hearing and stands by her testimony; Mr. Navarro refused to testify and is steadfast in his support for Trump; Mr. Sondland was a star witness against Trump in the first senate impeachment trial, but now recants. And, does so without any clearly stated reason.  The hazy reason expressed  for his vacillation  reflects more poorly on himself than it does on his view of the vice President. Indeed, he embarrassed himself.

    Link 2.  It is difficult to take seriously Norman Finkelstein's criticism of Kamala Harris when he starts off by referring to her as a "laughing cow".


    Parent

    I Predict That if Trump Wins (none / 0) (#132)
    by RickyJim on Mon Oct 14, 2024 at 12:27:21 PM EST
    the whining will mostly be something like "Oh why didn't we have an open convention?".  If you can listen beyond "laughing cow", there is a litany of reasons Finkelstein gives, that I've also heard from others, about why people find Harris deficient.  The problem to be solved is what to do now to get enough Harris votes in the right places to win.  I doubt that calling people who say they won't vote for her idiots is a good strategy.

    Parent
    I don't give a crap about Trump voters. (5.00 / 7) (#155)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Oct 19, 2024 at 03:56:57 AM EST
    The Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. once counseled us, "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." Well, MAGA Republicans have cornered the market on that.

    There is absolutely no good reason or rational defense for voting for Donald Trump, who is a criminal defendant awaiting trial in multiple jurisdictions, is a convicted felon awaiting sentencing in New York, is an unindicted co-conspirator in Michigan and Arizona, is the principal of a real estate company that was found guilty of fraud in a New York criminal trial, and is an adjudicated sexual assailant who owes E. Jean Carroll $88.5 million in damages. And please don't get me started about his obvious entanglement with the Russians.

    Anyone who finds Trump "presidential" is an effin moron.

    Parent

    I was going to dress as a (5.00 / 4) (#160)
    by Chuck0 on Sat Oct 19, 2024 at 05:10:50 PM EST
    Trump voter for Halloween. But I couldn't get my head up my bum.

    :)

    Parent

    I thought you were going to say (none / 0) (#163)
    by jondee on Sat Oct 19, 2024 at 10:38:15 PM EST
    the traditional white sheet with eye holes but with a cone added.

    Parent
    Heilemann (none / 0) (#131)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 14, 2024 at 08:11:38 AM EST

    All the polling is telling the same story. Never before has an election been so heavily polled or suffused with data--and never has that data been so intensely scrutinized, analyzed, and algorithmically massaged. Is it possible that all this polling will turn out to be wrong?"

    "Yes! In 2016 and 2020, the polling industrial complex screwed the poodle en masse, and not by a little (with 2020 producing an even bigger miss than the first time the data wizards had to contend with the Trump phenomenon). So despite the best efforts of the industry to cure what has ailed it in the Trump era, the polls could be systematically underestimating Trump's support again; they could also be understating Harris's."

    "When Nate Silver recently ran like a jillion simulations through his forecasting model, what the model spit back was that the most likely outcome in November wasn't what the polling averages are telling us today... but that Harris wins all seven swing states--with Trump winning all seven the next-most likely scenario, by a hair."

    "But as we sit here today trying to decide if Democrats are right to panic, there is literally nothing in the mass of available public polling to suggest that the Blue Wall is crumbling, or that the Sunbelt swing states are out of reach, or that the race writ large is slipping away from Harris."

    link

    Parent

    This is going to be another record turnout (none / 0) (#140)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 07:45:20 PM EST
    Yes (none / 0) (#156)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Oct 19, 2024 at 08:22:52 AM EST
    but the Trumpers are early voting this time. Which I would say is good because there can be no red mirage on election day.

    However the law says absentee ballots cannot be counted ahead of time. So depending on how election day goes I expect the same nonsense from 2020 to happen again.

    People are also early voting because they expect chaos and bomb threats at polling places on election day. In 2020 we had police at my polling place on election day.

    Parent

    Hey fishcamp. (5.00 / 1) (#121)
    by Chuck0 on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 11:14:54 AM EST
    How about those Ducks? Beating Ohio State by 1. Hallelujah!


    Yes the Fighting Ducks (none / 0) (#127)
    by fishcamp on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 05:18:12 PM EST
    we're both great and lucky.  I wonder if they will move up to second place in the ratings?

    Parent
    Fighting Ducks (none / 0) (#128)
    by jondee on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 09:29:03 PM EST
    Not the first image that pops into my head when I think a football team, but what do I know?

    Go Ducks!

    Parent

    They have been no, 1 for the second.. (none / 0) (#130)
    by desertswine on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 11:08:04 PM EST
    week now on the ratings system that I've been following.
    FBS College Football rankings

    Parent
    There are several college football polls. (none / 0) (#133)
    by fishcamp on Tue Oct 15, 2024 at 09:38:37 AM EST
    Each conference has a poll and Oregon has been number one in the big ten poll for a while.  The coaches poll is good, but the AP poll is the main one as far as I know.

    Parent
    This one goes up to 134... (none / 0) (#175)
    by desertswine on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:06:20 PM EST
    so the Lobos are always on it.  They're ranked 107th now, pretty good for them.

    Parent
    Go Ducks (5.00 / 1) (#152)
    by fishcamp on Fri Oct 18, 2024 at 04:05:39 PM EST


    Could be interesting (5.00 / 3) (#174)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 12:23:49 PM EST

    Army ordered to release records on Trump's Arlington cemetery visit

    A federal judge has ordered Army officials to release their records by the end of this week regarding President Donald Trump's controversial visit to Arlington National Cemetery this summer.



    The (5.00 / 3) (#193)
    by FlJoe on Thu Oct 24, 2024 at 10:33:25 AM EST
    Double standard shown toward Kamala by the media is incredible.

    CNN is bashing her for 'less then precise', meanwhile they keep digging up undecideds who can accept Trumps 'less then gibberish'.

    YEP (5.00 / 4) (#194)
    by jmacWA on Thu Oct 24, 2024 at 11:20:12 AM EST
    It's really ridiculous.  Trump is LAWLESS, but Harris must be FLAWLESS.  Double standard indeed.

    Parent
    What Does This Mean? (none / 0) (#1)
    by RickyJim on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 08:19:19 AM EST
    We try to build units that fall below permitting requirements with the simplest of construction techniques to make units fast and affordable.
    Is he confessing to building units that don't meet legal requirements?

    Ricky I was wondering the same (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Jeralyn on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 07:04:41 PM EST
    thing but I think he builds sheds for houses which have lower standards.

    Parent
    What was the conviction he had that (none / 0) (#6)
    by ruffian on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 12:35:02 PM EST
    made him owning a firearm illegal? I have not seen the details of that. Maybe fraud related?

    Parent
    NPR this morning said his prior conviction (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by Peter G on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 12:46:35 PM EST
    was for possession of an unregistered machinegun. (True machineguns, by the way, cannot lawfully be registered or possessed.)

    Parent
    No machine guns allowed? (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by jondee on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 07:09:00 PM EST
    They're 'arms' are they not? Yes, they are.

    I guess the 'no machine guns' clause is to keep the mass shooting casualties down to manageable numbers.

    Parent

    A Tr*mp-appointed judge in Kansas (none / 0) (#28)
    by Peter G on Tue Sep 17, 2024 at 02:16:25 PM EST
    did rule recently that the federal ban on machineguns is unconstitutional, but I don't believe that ruling will stand up on appeal.

    Parent
    He was also involved (none / 0) (#9)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 02:37:30 PM EST
    In some kind of standoff with law enforcement

    Parent
    I prefer (none / 0) (#2)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 09:37:59 AM EST
    oh yeah (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by ruffian on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 12:05:53 PM EST
    That has the late stage Jason Robards vibe

    Parent
    I (none / 0) (#8)
    by FlJoe on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 01:05:30 PM EST
    am getting serious surfer-dude vibes.

    Parent
    Honestly (none / 0) (#10)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 02:53:25 PM EST
    The blue hair is not saying surfer or Jason Robards to me.

    Parent
    Looks like one the crew (none / 0) (#20)
    by jondee on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 06:34:16 PM EST
    of Aguirre the Wrath of God after a month in the jungle with Klaus Kinski.

    Parent
    Heh! My initial thought was ... (none / 0) (#43)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Sep 20, 2024 at 10:48:34 AM EST
    ... "OMG! It's Gary Busey!"

    Parent
    I don't know.. (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by desertswine on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 04:45:46 PM EST
    He looks nice.

    Parent
    that's a goodie and he (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Jeralyn on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 07:05:55 PM EST
    Keeps aging in each round we see. I'd like to see a photo of him standing with Jeffrey Epstein -- separated at birth.

    Parent
    This one is (none / 0) (#11)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 03:07:59 PM EST
    Rich Lowery of the National Review (none / 0) (#12)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Sep 16, 2024 at 03:12:50 PM EST
    Came so close to using the N word live on air I bet his professional life

    flashed before his eyes

    If it's ever going to happen (none / 0) (#31)
    by jondee on Tue Sep 17, 2024 at 04:03:22 PM EST
    Megyn's show is a likely venue.

    BTW, a WHITE homeless guy told me once that the way to get geese is to give them bread balls soaked in vodka. Don't get any ideas.

    Parent

    If you listen to that (none / 0) (#56)
    by jondee on Sat Sep 21, 2024 at 10:40:08 PM EST
    slowed down, he didn't come close, he said it.

    Parent
    Oh man, he did (none / 0) (#57)
    by leap2 on Sat Sep 21, 2024 at 11:15:55 PM EST
    say that. I slowed it down to 0.5x speed. Clear as day.

    Parent
    Yeah, he's claiming the N (none / 0) (#61)
    by jondee on Sun Sep 22, 2024 at 03:00:16 PM EST
    was an M and that he was trying to say "migrants".

    He's fos. It's a very clear N, with no long I, and no T anywhere in there.

    Parent

    I think the biggest problem JD might have (none / 0) (#66)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 05:23:48 PM EST
    tonight could be the 2 female moderators.

    Will he be able to mask his contempt for them?

    I hope one of them asks JD about calling Gov Walz "Tampon Tim" for making sanitary napkins available in school bathrooms.

    That is just a singularly pathetic and F'ed up thing.

    (Might as well use this thread? Not much more to say about Ryan)

    Hope Tim Walz (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by KeysDan on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 06:51:10 PM EST
    brings up Trump's last  vice President, Pence.   Does Vance worry that he may face the same fate?  (As Walz rubs his neck)

    Parent
    He could ask him about this (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 06:59:54 PM EST
    Today

    Trump: "I will shut down all entries through Kamala's migrant phone app. She's got a phone app. It's meant for the cartel heads. The cartel heads call the app, and they tell them where to drop the illegal migrants... It's not even believable."



    Parent
    Yes, (none / 0) (#72)
    by KeysDan on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 07:28:45 PM EST
    make Vance defend (make excuses for) all of Trump's insanity.

    Parent
    He should (none / 0) (#70)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 06:56:44 PM EST
    definitely be mentioned

    Parent
    Tim has got this (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 08:59:11 PM EST
    it was not the Commanding officer or the coach that showed up.  It was the popular and effective governor.

    Parent
    I don't know if I'm gonna watch... (none / 0) (#67)
    by desertswine on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 06:23:22 PM EST
    I just get way stressed out.

    Parent
    It almost seems (none / 0) (#69)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 01, 2024 at 06:55:58 PM EST
    there has been a coordinated campaign to lower expectations for Gov Walz and raise them for Goober.

    I think it's not going to go that way.  Walz was a high school teacher.

    But he was also a Commanding Officer.   And everything JD pretends to be.

    I have high hopes for Tim.

    Parent

    Springsteen endorses (none / 0) (#82)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Oct 04, 2024 at 08:15:08 AM EST
    Great message from the Boss. (none / 0) (#87)
    by desertswine on Fri Oct 04, 2024 at 01:22:38 PM EST
    Unredacted (none / 0) (#89)
    by CaptHowdy on Sat Oct 05, 2024 at 02:34:40 PM EST
    Thanks for this. (5.00 / 2) (#91)
    by Chuck0 on Sat Oct 05, 2024 at 03:38:16 PM EST
    Very interesting.

    Parent
    I'm really over the weatherman who cried (none / 0) (#102)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 08, 2024 at 03:18:23 PM EST
    can we move on?

    Just saw a long piece on Ethel Kennedy (none / 0) (#110)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Oct 10, 2024 at 06:02:57 PM EST
    on CNN.

    Long summary of her life.  RFKjr was never mentioned.

    1 (none / 0) (#111)
    by BGinCA on Thu Oct 10, 2024 at 06:58:01 PM EST
    of 9

    Parent
    Sure (5.00 / 1) (#112)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Oct 10, 2024 at 07:56:37 PM EST
    It just seemed surprisingly respectful to not tack on at least one sentence at the end about him.

    For CNN. I approve.  

    Parent

    RFK Jr. was very much his mother's son, ... (none / 0) (#114)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Sat Oct 12, 2024 at 05:17:39 AM EST
    ... until the acid kicked in.

    Parent
    And then he started (none / 0) (#118)
    by jondee on Sat Oct 12, 2024 at 09:28:42 PM EST
    collecting whales heads and eating roadkill and continued even after the acid wore off.

    Parent
    I keep picturing Trump (5.00 / 1) (#126)
    by jondee on Sun Oct 13, 2024 at 04:16:51 PM EST
    crossing RFK and waking up with a whale's head tangled up in the satin sheets at the foot of the bed.

    Parent
    Don't BOO (none / 0) (#170)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 21, 2024 at 10:55:17 AM EST
    These legal maneuvers (none / 0) (#179)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:16:54 PM EST
    Ijust got back from voting.... (none / 0) (#180)
    by desertswine on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:24:21 PM EST
    big line at the polling place which surprised me.  I hope its a good thing.  I'm nervous about this election.  Great rousing speech by Obama on tv a while ago.  

    This election has me in full ostrich mode. (5.00 / 1) (#186)
    by vml68 on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 06:07:24 PM EST
    If I were a fingernail biter, I would have reached my knuckles by now.
    Wish I had CaptHowdy's boundless optimism.


    Parent
    When I voted yesterday (none / 0) (#181)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:39:24 PM EST
    There was a line.  It was about 10 am.  This is my routine.  But in all the years I've lived here there has never been a line.

    Except, and you won't like this, 2016.

    I think it's a good sign.  I got good vibes from those in line.  Wasn't a long line.  Like 3 before me.

    And it's definitely, IMO, not 2016.

    Parent

    It's a room with (none / 0) (#182)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:41:39 PM EST
    a dozen machines or so

    Parent
    About 2016 (none / 0) (#183)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:45:17 PM EST
    I think the similarity is this is - whether we intended or not - is another "Event Election"

    I predict record turnout.

    Parent

    A footnote (5.00 / 1) (#184)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 04:56:31 PM EST
    The first time Trump was on the ballot people turning out to vote for him also voted for and passed medical marijuana in my state.  Thanks to him I am legally very stoned at this very minute.

    This year there is a recreational ballot measure and I have high hopes.  Pun entirely intended

    Parent

    The first Event Election was 2016 (5.00 / 1) (#187)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 07:43:41 PM EST
    2020 sort of doesn't count. No one wants to think about 2920.
    But this is Event Election 2.

    Mano a Mano.  I think Mano can be female but the literal translation is funny in this case.  But Trump against a liberal woman.

     And it could end the same way.  I would love to kid myself and say Dems would win on principal or Kamala is a better candidate but I think Dobbs is the reason we will win.  Dobbs is the biggest difference from 2016.

    Parent

    Dems race to lose (none / 0) (#188)
    by coast on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 07:53:37 PM EST
    IMO this is the Dems race to lose.  I hate all these polls and frankly don't pay attention to any of them.  I don't think they have figured out how to actually poll anymore.

    My gut says its a Dem run away.

    Parent

    Democrats everywhere I think (none / 0) (#189)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 22, 2024 at 08:00:19 PM EST
    In every state and local election. Republicans have allowed Trump to poop the bed.

    Maybe not a blue wave but I think it's a thin

    About polling, they have been missing support for reproductive rights in elections over and over.

    Maybe a new demo.

    Parent

    This (none / 0) (#190)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 23, 2024 at 07:43:31 AM EST

    Donald Trump's recent momentum shift could in fact be an illusion, according to some experts.

    Trump has recently overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris in certain states' polling averages, but the data also include a huge number of GOP-leaning polls that could potentially tip the scales.

    The mainstream media outlets suggest that they have accounted for the GOP polls, but some pollsters aren't so sure, according to the New Republic's new reporting.

    link

    IMO (5.00 / 1) (#191)
    by jmacWA on Wed Oct 23, 2024 at 08:42:22 AM EST
    what we are seeing is a push by Trump and his supporters to get a lot of coverage on polls that favor Trump.  This whole polymarket nonsense is the same, instead of giving money to his campaign or a pro Trump pac his billionaire supporters can simply place a bet for him to win.  The idea is to have all this Trump is ahead coverage pounding us for the next 2 weeks so that Trump can point to it in his inevitable claim that the election was stolen.  A compliant media does not help.

    Parent
    Yes (none / 0) (#192)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 23, 2024 at 04:13:54 PM EST
    It's coming  

    I think a hopeful sign is these "hundreds of republican lawsuits" care crashing all over.
    I can't keep up.

    Look at it this way, the system held last time.  With Trump in charge.  More or less.  He is not in charge.  The system will hold.

    IMO

    Parent