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Boebert v Frisch - Colorado's 3rd District

Update: 11/17 6:00 pm: Now there are only 500 votes separating Boebert and Frisch. Looks like there will be an automatic runoff recount. At noon, Boebert had 162,175, 50% and Frisch had 161,078, 50%. I think the question now is, if Boebert holds her 500 vote lead, will there be enough mistakes in the recount for Frisch to win?

Update: I hate being wrong. But it looks like Lauren Boebert will skip to the lou for another 2 years. She's now more than 1,000 votes ahead. Her lead in Mesa County (Grand Junction) alone is 11,000 votes.

So even though she loses Aspen (Pitkin), Vail (Eagle), Telluride (San Miguel) and Crested Butte (Gunnison) by a landslide, and she even loses Garfield County (Glenwood Springs) and Pueblo (which used to be a Democratic stronghold and is apparently much more mixed now) by several thousand votes, those voters all turn into chopped liver because they're outnumbered by the Biden-hating Trump lovers.

Update: CNN is using higher percentages for the votes already counted in Colorado -- almost all at 95%. The New York Times and NPR are using the percentages I did below.

****Original Post

I would love if Lauren Boebert lost to Adam Frisch. Then maybe she'll pick up her guns and go skip to her lou someplace where we don't hear from her again.

The final vote count may not be in for a few days. Colorado has a process for "curing" votes. And if the candidates are within .05% of each other, there's an automatic recount.

[More...]

Right now she's ahead by 433 votes. But, here's the thing. Her red counties all have more than 95% of the vote counted. Adam's blue counties (where he is winning by a large margin) like Pueblo, Pitkin (Aspen) and Garfield (next door) to Aspen only have 90%, 80% and 90% of the votes counted. Adam is winning all three by a large margin.

If Frisch keeps his same percentage lead in Pitkin and Garfield, he can get hundreds more votes. Adding 20% and 10% to the vote totals for each county, and then giving each of them the same percentage points they have now in the counties, Adam would be ahead by about a thousand votes.

Pueblo: 68,311 votes counted, Adam leads 54 to 46%, with 10% of votes not counted, or 6831. 54% of 6831 is 3689 more votes for Adam while 46% of 6831 is 3142 votes for Boebert. So Adam would pick up 547 more votes than Boebert in Pueblo.

Pitkin: Only 80% of the vote is in. Using the same formula, where 9,297 votes have been counted and Adam leads 79% to Boebert's 21%, the extra 20 votes come to 1859 votes still out there. 79 of 1859 is 1320 more votes for Adam, but only 390 more votes for Boebert.

Garfield: 90% of the vote is in. Total votes, 23, 542. Adam has 57% and 13,375 votes. Boebert has 43% and 10,167 votes. Giving Adam 57% of the remaining 2,354 votes gives him 1,342 more votes. Adding 43% of the remaining 2,354 votes to Boebert gives her only 1,102 more votes.

So, by my calculations, Adam will likely pick up 7,363 votes in Pueblo, Pitkin and Garfield counties while Boebert will pick up only 4,364 votes. That's 2,729 more votes for Adam than Boebert that are still to come from these three counties.

The other counties have 95% of the vote totaled and most have very small numbers of voters. One more thing: If you look at the NYTimes numbers, in every county where Dems are ahead, they got a higher percentage of votes in 2022 than Biden did in 2020, while Republicans lost votes in every county where Boehbert is ahead compared to Trump in 2020.

So my tea leaves say: Adam Frisch wins. Then again, I haven't played with math since the late '60's, 70's and 80's when I calculated astrology charts using algorithms. I also never took statistics. So if I'm wrong, I'll stick to my day job.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Best Quote Eva and I Mean Eva (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by ScottW714 on Thu Nov 10, 2022 at 03:49:38 PM EST
    "Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit," Trump said in an interview with NewsNation that aired Tuesday. "And if they lose, I should not be blamed at all."
     LINK

    And who can ever forget one of the runner-ups.

    "Ladies and gentlemen, I want to make a major announcement today: I would like to promise and pledge to all of my voters and supporters, and to all of the people of the United States, that I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election -- if I win," Trump said, as the crowd cheered.
    LINK

    538 :( (none / 0) (#2)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Nov 10, 2022 at 04:20:15 PM EST

    "In Colorado's 3rd District, Boebert may hold on: She now leads by 794 votes and her lead grew even with light-blue Pueblo County reporting most of its remaining votes. ABC News estimates that around 5,000 votes are outstanding in the district, which means Frisch would need to win 58 percent of those to win, which seems unlikely."

    "But as we've seen, the vote method and timing matters. Colorado is a vote-by-mail state, but votes dropped off on Election Day tend to be more Republican, while those coming through the mail tend to be more Democratic. So until we have the results in hand, it's hard to know just how red or blue a batch of newly reported votes will be."

    link


    I think (none / 0) (#3)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Nov 10, 2022 at 05:56:26 PM EST
    unfortunately Boebert hangs on. However we now have a seat in CO to target and bring some money and talent to. She and Marge will be the clown show of congress for 2 years.

    Parent
    There is all the talk about "probes" (none / 0) (#4)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Nov 10, 2022 at 06:05:20 PM EST
    no one mentions the republicans have taught the country you can just ignore congressional investigations over the last few years

    Parent
    She and Marge (none / 0) (#5)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu Nov 10, 2022 at 06:29:50 PM EST
    will be running things
    The smaller the margin the more power the nutters will have

    Parent
    There's (none / 0) (#6)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Nov 11, 2022 at 05:48:23 AM EST
    gonna be a couple of power bases. Do you think those NY GOP seats are gonna all of a sudden go along with Large Marge & her impeachment plans? Literally probably 5 people can shut down the entire GOP.

    Parent
    Recount (none / 0) (#7)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Nov 11, 2022 at 07:16:22 AM EST

    Denver Post: "If neither candidate gains a wide enough margin, election officials might not declare an official winner in the race for weeks, depending on how the process plays out."

    "Not only would a slim margin of victory trigger an automatic recount but either candidate can also request a recount so long as they're willing to pay for it. The process could then extend into December."



    Approx. 800 votes or less (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by Jeralyn on Fri Nov 11, 2022 at 05:22:27 PM EST
    difference will result in a recount according to the Post, although either party can ask for one if they pay for it.

    The outstanding votes seem to be military and international voters. Frisch for some reason thinks military votes will go for him, but that didn't happen yesterday when a bunch were counted for Pueblo. I would think military votes would go to the Republican.

    Parent

    551 vote lead (none / 0) (#9)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Nov 18, 2022 at 07:35:42 AM EST

    Lauren Boebert Locked in Too Close to Call Race
    November 17, 2022 at 9:57 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 389 Comments

    Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) "was locked in a race that was too close to call and inside the threshold for automatic recount, the Associated Press projected Thursday, leaving the outcome of a surprsingly competitive election in a conservative congressional district in doubt," the Washington Post reports.

    Associated Press: "With nearly all votes counted, Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert led Democrat Adam Frisch by 0.16 percentage points, or 551 votes out of nearly 327,000 votes counted."



    But honestly, what are the chances (none / 0) (#10)
    by Peter G on Fri Nov 18, 2022 at 09:17:17 AM EST
    that the final total will swing by more than 550 after the recount? What sort of errors could produce that kind of difference?

    Parent
    Axios (none / 0) (#11)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Nov 18, 2022 at 10:33:45 AM EST

    Slim.  Still....

    It's estimated that a few thousand ballots remain outstanding or unverified.

    link

    Parent

    It has been called (none / 0) (#12)
    by CaptHowdy on Fri Nov 18, 2022 at 02:57:09 PM EST
    sigh

    Parent
    Frisch conceded, on the same basis (none / 0) (#13)
    by Peter G on Fri Nov 18, 2022 at 08:32:04 PM EST
    that I raised in my comment. That Colorado elections are so well run that the chances of 500+ errors are slim-to-none, not to mention the even slimmer chance that that many would all switch in his favor.

    Parent