New Cornonavirus Numbers Prematurely Revealed

The White House and author of this modeling report showing an expected increase in covid-19 cases and deaths by June 1 are doing their best to convice the media this report was not finished and isn't meanat to be relied on.

The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double the current number of about 1,750.

...The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.

The report is here. [More...]

Reopening states and counties is the wrong thing to do. Doesn't anyone remember back in March when Andrew Cuomo and others said we could expect a decrease only if we followed stay at home orders and practiced social distancing?

The author of the report is Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Lessler said that while the exact numbers and charts in the CDC document may differ from the final results, they do show accurately how covid-19 cases could spiral out of control. He said 100,000 cases per day by the end of the month is within the realm of possibility. Much depends on political decisions being made today.

The first political decision the country needs to make is that Donald Trump should be frog-marched out of the White House.

< Donald Trump's Feelings are Hurt: No More Briefings? | Monday Night Open Thread >
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  • Display: Sort:
    Mr Lessler should take care (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon May 04, 2020 at 07:30:56 PM EST
    And avoid tall building nags or he might find himself flying like a Russian doctor

    Ridiculous... (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by desertswine on Mon May 04, 2020 at 07:45:37 PM EST
    the covid 19 is going to disappear like a miracle any day now.

    Mutant (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue May 05, 2020 at 08:46:38 AM EST
    "Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic," the Los Angeles Times reports.

    "The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March."

    "In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease."

    The East coast strain is more (none / 0) (#17)
    by Militarytracy on Tue May 05, 2020 at 12:27:30 PM EST
    Contagious than the one that the West coast originally contended with.

    When we get to (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue May 05, 2020 at 12:50:10 PM EST
    The Stand

    I know we will be on the same side.

    (See King, Stephen)


    Of course (5.00 / 3) (#21)
    by Militarytracy on Tue May 05, 2020 at 12:54:01 PM EST
    See you in Boulder. It's summer. Maybe we can bike there.

    You know (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed May 06, 2020 at 12:53:11 PM EST
    I and millions of others have been waiting with bated breath for the announcement of the premier of The Stand on the CBS streaming service.  
    I read they are very aware of the "current situation" and have no interest in the appearance of trying to use the disaster to promote the event.  Or vice vera

    Shooting wrapped in March and I guess they are just waiting for a time that's acceptable.  

    Here's the thing
    If they wait to release it because of the virus you would expect it just before the election.  

    I think if you have read the stand you would be ok with it being released before this election.

    Either way, it's coming pretty soon.



    Oh pu...leeeezeee (none / 0) (#39)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu May 07, 2020 at 11:49:00 AM EST
    My favorite cousin (none / 0) (#40)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu May 07, 2020 at 11:59:12 AM EST
    And I have mad a pact.  If Trump gets this we will seriously entertain the possibility there is a God.

    Mad (none / 0) (#41)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu May 07, 2020 at 12:00:45 PM EST
    Is a good enough word

    Tick (none / 0) (#42)
    by FlJoe on Fri May 08, 2020 at 02:41:56 PM EST
    President Donald Trump confirmed Friday that Vice President Mike Pence's press secretary, Katie Miller, tested positive for the coronavirus.
    and the kicker
    Katie Miller is married to Trump's senior adviser, Stephen Miller.

    The Trump Plan: (5.00 / 2) (#26)
    by KeysDan on Tue May 05, 2020 at 05:19:15 PM EST
    I really don't care do you.  Terminate task force, let daily deaths of 1,000 become normalized, sow confusion, lie, underscore the virus mostly affects the elderly and POC, and point fingers at others as to the evident corruption and incompetence.  All in service of a papering over of the failed Trump Administration.

    The task (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 05, 2020 at 05:30:18 PM EST
    force was less than worthless staffed with covidiots. But all the other is the plan. Like Zorba says deaths are just to be considered collateral damage. I expect any day now for them to go full Nazi and call them deaths of "useless eaters".

    The disposal (none / 0) (#30)
    by KeysDan on Tue May 05, 2020 at 06:42:38 PM EST
    of the task force gives an opportunity to sideline Dr. Fauci.  Not only does he give inconvenient truths, but also, commits the cardinal sin---he eclipses Trump.

    Dr Birx may stay on since when scarves are peeled back, there is but an apparatchik.  


    I think (none / 0) (#31)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 05, 2020 at 07:00:18 PM EST
    Dr. Fauci will always be able to get his message out if nothing other than through the press. It's not like they were listening to him anyway on the covidiot task force.

    Bottom line is (none / 0) (#1)
    by ragebot on Mon May 04, 2020 at 05:44:24 PM EST
    no one knows what is going on.  None of the tests are accurate to an acceptable level.  Seems like there is no standard for what is a death due to COVID-19.  Many countries are inflating or deflating their numbers.  Not to mention third world countries really don't have the capabilities to accurately measure who has it and who has died from it; to a lesser extent this goes for first world countries as well.

    I have no doubt there will be more deaths; and a lot more in third world countries.  I have no doubt the economic disaster we are experiencing will get worse.  

    I would also point out the current health care situation is not sustainable.  I get my health care from the VA.  My regular dental cleaning and checkup was postponed till who knows when.  I have had melanoma in the past and am sure there is a growth on my face my doctor would freeze off if I could see her; but my checkup with her was postponed till who knows when.  Same goes for my six month regular check up with my primary care doctor.  The thing is there are some folks who are in much worse shape than I am in and need regular health care.

    There are multiple reports of hospitals laying off employees due to no work for them; some hospitals are even closing.  Not sure how long this can go on before there are serious hits to the health care systems.

    There seem to be a flood of litigation against multiple folks; companies, hospitals, cruise lines, airlines, and others.  Not to mention there are several attempts to start class actions suits against colleges/universities.  The pubs have proposed legislation to protect against some, or all, of these suits while the dems seem dead set against it.  Not much question this will be a huge drag on any economic recovery what ever happens.  I do thing some of the suits are legit but suspect a lot are not.

    There is some worry about food supplies and the delivery system to get things to consumers.  Meat packers are shutting down and production has taken a hit.  Prices are also rising.

    I probably have left out things some folks think should have been mentioned.  But I am sure things will get worse before they get better.

    I (none / 0) (#2)
    by FlJoe on Mon May 04, 2020 at 06:09:28 PM EST
    think that plenty of people know what is going on. At it's root it's a relatively simple mathematical equation. The problem being the virus itself is the only constant(even though if the exact value is still being determined)  and the variables are more sociological than mathematical, good luck modeling human/governmental/business behavior.



    The CDC death count for COVID-19 (none / 0) (#3)
    by ragebot on Mon May 04, 2020 at 06:57:07 PM EST
    in it's latest release is far lower than the numbers the MSM are pushing; around 38,000.  Thing is the CDC numbers are based on death certificates while the MSM numbers come from lots of sources; some of which may inflate the numbers.  The true number is most likely somewhere between the 38,000 and 70,000.  But it is silly to say any one knows what the true number is.

    The same is true for a lot of other things we are hearing/reading about COVID-19.  While I have no doubt it is a very serious problem I am also convinced we really don't know enough to deal with the problem.

    Does anyone doubt the link to the CDC numbers is correct in saying this is a hard floor for COVID-19 deaths; or on the other hand some of the higher numbers are inflated and the real cause of death may be something other than COVID-19.

    It is impossible to come up with a solution without knowing just what the problem is.


    We know a lot (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by MKS on Mon May 04, 2020 at 07:05:20 PM EST
    It is not like we do not know anything, so screw the scientists and open the country.

    Insurance companies (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by Repack Rider on Mon May 04, 2020 at 07:22:13 PM EST
    ...can tell you how many deaths took place in April of last year and any previous year.  If those numbers are reasonably consistent year over year until this year, and then there is a spike this year, it is safe to assign the number of actual deaths over the number of expected deaths to the CV virus.

    Maybe not so simple. (none / 0) (#24)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Tue May 05, 2020 at 02:02:50 PM EST
    Sure, "safe to assign" if everything else is "normal," but this past April was decidedly not normal.

    Probably a little more complicated than you make it seem.

    idk, but I'd guess that many of your "standard" deaths due to things like auto accidents, falls, etc., are way down due to the covid.

    But, to your point, you could probably use past year's data and make some educated guesses and get a reasonably good range of "guesstimates."


    Hard to explain (none / 0) (#25)
    by ragebot on Tue May 05, 2020 at 03:48:38 PM EST
    how last year there were about 61,000 deaths from the flu and this year 34,000.

    As for other causes of deaths some are up and some are down; with COVID-19 deaths really being up compared to zero from last year.


    Check again (none / 0) (#28)
    by FlJoe on Tue May 05, 2020 at 05:29:52 PM EST
    those numbers are not from this past season, but from the previous two seasons. And the CDC strikes again the numbers are still preliminary!

    It is obvious that flu cases and deaths vary greatly
    from year to year, it would not be surprising if the flu cases were actually way down this year as the mitigations aimed at preventing covid happen to be really, really effective against the flu.


    Those (5.00 / 4) (#6)
    by FlJoe on Mon May 04, 2020 at 07:30:28 PM EST
    numbers are a joke and they even admit it
    It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1-2 weeks.
    the media are "pushing" data from several respected research organization that seem to be doing a whole lot better job of counting in real time, they all track in the same range and their data is consistent with the individual state data. There also has been zero pushback on the higher numbers from anyone in the medical field or the tRump administration for that matter. Many if not most of the experts think the death count is actually higher.

    Almost certainly higher (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon May 04, 2020 at 08:05:32 PM EST
    No one is counting people who just die at home and don't get a chance to get sick and get a test.

    The (5.00 / 3) (#11)
    by FlJoe on Mon May 04, 2020 at 08:15:13 PM EST
    excess mortality rates that have been released strongly suggest that.

    You may already be (none / 0) (#23)
    by KeysDan on Tue May 05, 2020 at 01:36:17 PM EST
    aware of this, but this is a good resource
    World Covid-19 Stats:   ncov2019.live/data

    Here we go again (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by Yman on Mon May 04, 2020 at 10:33:42 PM EST
    Why are conservatives pushing these fake numbers?  Do they really think anyone is stupid enough to not read them?

    Those CDC death totals are weeks old.

    "Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 4, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically."
    So, the numbers that Young and others were peddling as evidence of some sort of revelation about the "real" death count were, in fact, numbers that the CDC acknowledges are weeks behind the actual mortality number.

    Such a fuss (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue May 05, 2020 at 08:41:41 AM EST

    "Of course, everybody wants to save every life they can -- but the question is, towards what end, ultimately?"

    -- Former Gov. Chris Christie (R), in an interview with CNN.

    It looks as though (5.00 / 4) (#15)
    by Zorba on Tue May 05, 2020 at 10:43:14 AM EST
    All (or most) of the Republicans are spouting the same message now.  Essentially, economy-saving beats life-saving.
    Money, money, money.
    It reminds me of the whole "collateral damage" arguments that we have heard during every war since I've been alive.  A certain number of civilian deaths is supposed to be acceptable (not by me) in furtherance of our war efforts.  
    So I guess the deaths of more old people and people with underlying medical problems, are justified as "collateral damage"- okay as long as the economy reopens.

    In a consumer confidence driven economy (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Militarytracy on Tue May 05, 2020 at 12:24:36 PM EST
    What they are doing is economy killing.

    Because people now must risk their lives and the safety of their loved ones, we will wear old clothes and drive old cars. Your mother doesn't want flowers on Mother's Day, she wants you alive.


    I was just out (5.00 / 2) (#19)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue May 05, 2020 at 12:44:21 PM EST
    Went to the new dispensary.  (It's AWSUM!!! and a bit closer) there is a very noticeable reduction of masks and gloves.  I stopped at Walmart.   I would say by half.

    I really hope this does not go as badly as I think it might.

    Either way our job is to keep doing what we have been doing and influence as many others as possible.


    I have only seen maskless (none / 0) (#22)
    by Militarytracy on Tue May 05, 2020 at 12:58:18 PM EST
    At a Maryland Conservative hangout when we went to pick up some wings.

    I ordered plastic face shields yesterday.


    This is true. (5.00 / 3) (#27)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 05, 2020 at 05:28:11 PM EST
    If people cannot trust that it is safe to eat in a restaurant or go to a store, they are not going to go.

    All of this will work on the Trumpers but they are not enough to keep the economy going all by themselves.


    It comes down to government (5.00 / 3) (#32)
    by Militarytracy on Tue May 05, 2020 at 08:38:34 PM EST
    Murdering its citizens. It defiles the social compact.

    Republicans (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by KeysDan on Thu May 07, 2020 at 09:51:55 AM EST
    are a death-positive party.  Trump indicated yesterday that he intends to terminate Obamacare. Perfect timing in the midst of the pandemic and economic recession, soon to become depression.  Of course, Trump lied saying he would retain pre-existing provisions.  The legal position of his Administration before the Supreme Court is that Obamacare should go in its entirety.  

    And, then their is the Republican resistance to the food stamp program when children are going hungry and food banks are overwhelmed.


    Yeah, Fat Tony Baloney.. (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by desertswine on Wed May 06, 2020 at 01:51:12 AM EST
    wants you to go out and sacrifice your health so he can maintain his lavish lifestyle.

    Yes, there is a lag (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by KeysDan on Tue May 05, 2020 at 12:38:25 PM EST
    from death and death certificate recording.  And, too, the cause of death may be listed as the comorbidity, rather than the virus.  And, Covid-19 attacks all cells, not only lung cells.  And, without testing, it may not be known that the virus was the killer.

    so true (none / 0) (#48)
    by Jeralyn on Tue May 12, 2020 at 04:53:15 AM EST
    New Trump plan (none / 0) (#37)
    by CaptHowdy on Thu May 07, 2020 at 08:13:16 AM EST
    Axios' Jonathan Swan reported Wednesday that President Donald Trump doubts the official death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States -- and officials believe he will start openly questioning the growing tally.

    The Dems (none / 0) (#9)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon May 04, 2020 at 07:58:10 PM EST
    are set against rewarding irresponsible behavior which the GOP wants to reward.

    It's Mourning in America brought to you by the GOP and Donald Trump here


    Today's word is (none / 0) (#45)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon May 11, 2020 at 12:25:26 PM EST
    Doctors Without Borders.. (none / 0) (#46)
    by desertswine on Mon May 11, 2020 at 10:19:35 PM EST
    has sent a team to the Navajo Nation as Native Americans are slammed by covid-19.

    "Doctors Without Borders is best known for sending medical professionals into international conflict zones in the midst of medical crises," reported Christina Capatides. "The organization has teams in Afghanistan, Iran, Sierra Leone, Venezuela and 66 other countries. It did not, however, have a medical presence in the United States - until now."

    Are we a member of the third world now?

    First Nations (none / 0) (#47)
    by Peter G on Mon May 11, 2020 at 10:36:51 PM EST
    Third World. Ironic, but true.