The Path to Victory: Biden v. Trump

95% of the time I think the election will be a slam-dunk for Biden and a decisive rejection of Donald Trump. But then, I think of all the millionaires and billionaires exercising their clout for Trump, and the unknown faction -- the number of marginalized, unhappy, under-informed lost souls out there somewhere in rural America, and I wonder, could they bring the election home for Trump?

The Wall St. Journal today has a "path to victory" chart in which you can move the battleground states into either candidate's column to see how they can reach 270 electoral votes. (Note: Paywall, but I think the NY Times had a similar feature a few weeks ago).

Biden starts way ahead of Trump with 226 electoral votes to Trump's 165. But, Florida is big, with 29 E.V. and Texas has 38. PA, Ohio and MI are next with 20, 18, and 16. Personally, I think Biden will take Florida, but even if he does, Trump could still win. For example, if the only undecideds Biden takes are FL, IA and NV.

Biden has the edge, and I hope he trounces Trump in a landslide, so Trump can never claim his legacy is anything but the failure that it is. [More...]

But people need to vote and I think Trump's supporters are more dedicated than Biden's. Biden was and remains a poor pick, and I don't think Harris has made as much of a difference as people thought she would.

With two weeks to go, of course, anything can happen. Maybe it's the stations I watch, but Trump surrogates on TV sound less positive every day. I saw a segment yesterday with Jake Tapper and Lara Trump and it didn't seem like even she believed what she was saying.

Then again, other days it seems like only Trump's children really want him to win. There is hope for getting rid of Trump, but it all depends on the turnout in the critical undecided states.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Trump's path (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by KeysDan on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 04:54:03 PM EST
    to victory is to pin science and good judgment on Biden.  As Trump warned at his rally in Nevada yesterday, if elected, Biden will "listen to scientists" regarding the corona virus.

    Meh, who cares about the Coronavirus. (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by vml68 on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 05:15:56 PM EST
    yeah, what's the matter with those women? (5.00 / 5) (#11)
    by Peter G on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 07:56:58 PM EST
    Kids in cages? Abolishing health insurance reform? Nonstop lies and personal abuse? Contempt for scientific knowledge? Who cares? What women want is a good old-fashioned water-wasting dishwasher!

    He spent the day (none / 0) (#5)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 05:18:42 PM EST
    Attacking Fauci.  Not the way I would have gone but he's the president and I'm not.

    Mr. Zorba (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by Zorba on Tue Oct 20, 2020 at 02:23:49 PM EST
    Wants a t-shirt that says "Listen to the scientists."

    I (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by FlJoe on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 10:43:23 AM EST
    voted today, 17 minutes total time.

    I have made plans (none / 0) (#25)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 10:52:51 AM EST
    To visit old friends in Little Rock for Nov 3rd.  They never leave their house and I don't plan to have any human contact between now and then so we can celebrate without fearing an untimely death.

    I'm really looking forward to it having not seen living people outside Walmart for months.  Well, except my neighbor who has supplies delivered from Walmart.

    The last election we gathered for was 2000 so we have some celebrating to catch up on.  

    If not, it's better than drinking alone.


    voted Monday (none / 0) (#26)
    by Coral on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 11:43:17 AM EST
    Took 5 minutes. Western MA. Mid-afternoon. The easiest time I've ever had voting in presidential election. I love early voting.

    Voted a week ago (none / 0) (#28)
    by MO Blue on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 01:05:49 PM EST
    in St. Louis county. There was a line and it took me approximately an hour. It was a beautiful day and I was happy to see so many people eager to vote. Advised by friends and family who voted earlier than I did, that there was a line to get into building to vote then as well.  

    The "mail-in" ballot that (none / 0) (#29)
    by Peter G on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 01:47:09 PM EST
    I hand-delivered a week ago to a local drop-box was acknowledged today by email as received. Apparently this took a week because the county elections office staff had not had time to scan in ballots like mine (and my wife's), as they have been so busy sending out thousands more mail-in ballots to the last-minute rush of voters who requested them just before the deadline. I am now very confident that it will be counted on Election Day, when Pennsylvania law allows the envelopes to be opened and scanned/counted.

    Probably made you (none / 0) (#31)
    by Zorba on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 10:13:46 AM EST
    a bit nervous when you didn't here from them for a week, but they did get it.  Our ballots which Mr. Zorba had put in the county Board of Elections drop box last week, were acknowledged by email the next day.
    I was a little nervous even about the locked drop box, but my husband said they had a camera there overlooking the drop box.  I don't know how often they monitor it, but hopefully it should discourage anyone from performing some malicious acts.

    yah, I thought about using the vote drop box (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by leap on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 10:22:12 AM EST
    outside the library, wondering if some idiot would drop a flaming torch into it -- this is what has happened to this country, thinking this could actually be a reality. Cripes, I hate thinking like that. Nonetheless, I walked to the Court House, instead, and dropped my ballot into the box outside the front door. A cop was standing nearby. The next day I saw that my ballot had been received and accepted.

    We have other drop boxes (none / 0) (#33)
    by Zorba on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 10:59:41 AM EST
    in my county, but we thought the Board of Elections one would be more monitored.
    We were happy to receive the acknowledgment the next day, I'll tell you.
    I cannot believe that we have to worry about such things.  The loonies have always been with us, but it seems that they now feel even more emboldened to commit acts of vandalism, violence, racism, etc.  

    In Pennsylvania, the dropboxes must be (none / 0) (#36)
    by Peter G on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 05:01:55 PM EST
    secured at all times, so they do not just sit out somewhere, like a mailbox. (Ironically, since the dropboxes are just places for the hand-delivery of "mail-in" ballots.) So they are available only at certain hours, so there can be a security guard or deputy sheriff present. Either in a public building lobby, like ChuckO's, or in a temporary mini-trailer, like mine, which is unlocked at a certain time, when the guard arrives, and you hand over your ballot into the box through a window in the trailer, under the guard's watchful eye. Six hours later, or whatever, the box is taken to the County office building to be unloaded. The box returns and trailer is unlocked at the next time when it is scheduled to be opened. The hours vary on different days, to accommodate different folks' schedules.

    The only dropbox in my (none / 0) (#35)
    by Chuck0 on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 01:27:47 PM EST
    county is inside the lobby of the county bldg. It was monitored by election staff. Inside the bldg, but outside of security. So voters don't have to go through the scanner and empty their pockets and all that stuff just to drop off their ballot.

    I plan on (none / 0) (#30)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 02:45:10 PM EST
    voting Monday when more early voting locations open up. So far at least the lines in my county have not been too bad.

    Promises, promises. (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by KeysDan on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 11:59:10 AM EST
    Trump told his audiences in Florida, on Monday; in Pennsylvania, on Tuesday; and in Iowa on Wednesday; that Mexico is paying for THE WALL.

    The planned path to victory is paved with lies, trickery and deceit.

    He told (none / 0) (#34)
    by Zorba on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 11:02:52 AM EST
    an audience in Georgia that he would have to leave the country if he lost to Biden.
    Promise, Donald?  If only that were true!

    Political Wire (none / 0) (#1)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 12:14:53 PM EST
    Has had a mo up they update with the following sources


    Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, October 8, 2020
    Cook Political Report, September 29, 2020
    First Read, September 8, 2020
    Cook Political Report, July 24, 2020
    Inside Elections, July 17, 2020

    You can also play with the states but they have Biden at 291 to Trumps 125.


    Trump getting (none / 0) (#2)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 02:21:25 PM EST
    125 EVs would be glorious. It would be the lowest EV total of a Republican in decades.

    122 were tossup (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 20, 2020 at 01:29:34 PM EST
    Trump will probably get some of them.  But the thing about wave elections, they say, is usually all or most the tossups end up going the same way.

    This will go over well I'm sure (none / 0) (#6)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 07:33:44 PM EST
    A perfect excuse (5.00 / 3) (#12)
    by Peter G on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 08:24:09 PM EST
    for Tr*mp to cancel the third debate, would be my prediction.

    Trump Will Have No Problem Shouting (none / 0) (#8)
    by RickyJim on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 07:42:06 PM EST
    and being heard during Biden's two minutes.  Remember the description of the cellphone call he had with Amb. Sondland at a Ukrainian restaurant where the other people at the table could hear Trump clearly.

    A better (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 07:56:23 PM EST
    4x4 (none / 0) (#7)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 07:35:27 PM EST
    "The Supreme Court will allow Pennsylvania to count ballots received up to three days after the election, rejecting a Republican plea," the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

    "The justices divided 4-4 Monday, an outcome that upholds a state Supreme Court ruling that allowed election officials to receive and count ballots until Nov. 6, even if they don't have a clear postmark."


    4 -4 (5.00 / 6) (#9)
    by KeysDan on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 07:46:53 PM EST
    Roberts, Kagan, Sotomayor, Breyer ---Alito, Kavanagh, Gorsuch, Thomas.

    With the Handmaiden    Dollar to a donut: 5 -4,  joining the Alito Four.  


    Not sure how its not 99.9% of the time (none / 0) (#13)
    by coast on Tue Oct 20, 2020 at 11:43:18 AM EST
    I don't see Trump pulling this one out.  I think the next debate is going to be yet another train wreck no matter what the moderator has at her disposal.

    Votes (none / 0) (#14)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 20, 2020 at 01:24:13 PM EST

    more people have now early voted in Texas than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in Texas in 2016.


    In my county, 30% of active registered voters (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by vml68 on Tue Oct 20, 2020 at 02:24:54 PM EST
    have already voted.

    King County Washington (Seattle and environs) (none / 0) (#18)
    by leap on Tue Oct 20, 2020 at 10:56:42 PM EST
    King County Elections
    In the first 5 days, we have picked up an estimated 164,000 ballots from drop boxes! That's more than 10x the previous record and is AMAZING. Keep 'em coming! We're now picking up at least twice a day at all boxes with more for our higher traffic locations.
    Fun fact: The most ballots we've collected from drop boxes within the first five days of mailing them is 16,015. That was in this year's Presidential Primary.

    Can we beat that? What's your guess for how many we'll get back by Monday?
    10:02 AM · Oct 20, 2020

    Happy wed (none / 0) (#19)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 08:20:50 AM EST
    A while back (none / 0) (#20)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 08:53:20 AM EST
    We were wondering how much of Trumps endgame insanity Barr would be on board for.  It seems maybe that question is being answered.   The delay of the Dowd report.  And so far ignoring this


    We ain't there yet but Barr is allowing some hope that even if he has no moral compass he at least has a sense of self preservation legally and wants to avoid being mentioned in the same historical paragraph with  John Mitchell and Richard Kleindienst.

    I'm sure the resignation of Dowds top deputy was received as a shot across the bow from the DOJ but the coming blue wave probably has more to do with his reluctance to hop on the crazy train.

    But we still have two weeks of voting and the god only knows what after that.   So I would not want to bet on this either way.

    I guess it would take (none / 0) (#21)
    by leap on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 09:26:12 AM EST
    a Constitutional Amendment to eliminate the 2½ month period between presidential election results and inauguration. But I think we should aim for that to prevent the type of $h!† that Trump and his people will very clearly engineer. Why we have that absurd interval is nuts and makes no sense in the 21st C.

    An in-coming president should take office as soon as the results are known.


    In normal times, for which the rules (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Peter G on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 10:09:01 AM EST
    are written, there is a need for a massive gearing up of the new administration and for a highly complex transition in the operation of innumerable offices and agencies. Occupancy of the Oval Office is the least of it. The time presently provided for allows for that. In normal times.

    I was reading something (none / 0) (#22)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 09:41:43 AM EST
    the other day that asked what if he is all to eager to leave.  And talks about how much worse the 2008 recession would have been if the Bush administration had not worked so closely with the incoming Obamas.

    It's hard to see how he could really be helpful since he clearly has no idea what is even happening but it's easy to believe he could makes things way worse.  In lots of way.

    It pretty clear Mitch and his are stopping any stimulus because they want Biden to take charge of the biggest disaster possible.  Trump will likely be very creative in finding other ways to do that.

    What If Trump Is All Too Eager to Give Up Power?