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The Path to Victory: Biden v. Trump

By Jeralyn, Section Colorado News
Posted on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 12:08:27 PM EST
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95% of the time I think the election will be a slam-dunk for Biden and a decisive rejection of Donald Trump. But then, I think of all the millionaires and billionaires exercising their clout for Trump, and the unknown faction -- the number of marginalized, unhappy, under-informed lost souls out there somewhere in rural America, and I wonder, could they bring the election home for Trump?

The Wall St. Journal today has a "path to victory" chart in which you can move the battleground states into either candidate's column to see how they can reach 270 electoral votes. (Note: Paywall, but I think the NY Times had a similar feature a few weeks ago).

Biden starts way ahead of Trump with 226 electoral votes to Trump's 165. But, Florida is big, with 29 E.V. and Texas has 38. PA, Ohio and MI are next with 20, 18, and 16. Personally, I think Biden will take Florida, but even if he does, Trump could still win. For example, if the only undecideds Biden takes are FL, IA and NV.

Biden has the edge, and I hope he trounces Trump in a landslide, so Trump can never claim his legacy is anything but the failure that it is. [More...]

But people need to vote and I think Trump's supporters are more dedicated than Biden's. Biden was and remains a poor pick, and I don't think Harris has made as much of a difference as people thought she would.

With two weeks to go, of course, anything can happen. Maybe it's the stations I watch, but Trump surrogates on TV sound less positive every day. I saw a segment yesterday with Jake Tapper and Lara Trump and it didn't seem like even she believed what she was saying.

Then again, other days it seems like only Trump's children really want him to win. There is hope for getting rid of Trump, but it all depends on the turnout in the critical undecided states.

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    The Path to Victory: Biden v. Trump | 36 comments (36 topical)

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    Trump's path (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by KeysDan on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 04:54:03 PM EST
    to victory is to pin science and good judgment on Biden.  As Trump warned at his rally in Nevada yesterday, if elected, Biden will "listen to scientists" regarding the corona virus.

    Meh, who cares about the Coronavirus. (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by vml68 on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 05:15:56 PM EST
    I want to know what Biden is going to do about the fact that I have to flush my toilet 15 times.
    Tr*mp has already freed my dishwasher and saved my house!

    "So you go into a hotel or you buy a house, and they have what's called the restrictor. Right? Look at them. They're all nodding. Same thing, by the way, same thing with your dishwasher. I freed that up too. The dishwashers, they had a little problem," the president said.

    "They didn't give enough water, like, so people would run them 10 times, so they end up using more water. And the thing's no damn good. We freed it up. Now you can buy a dishwasher and comes out and beautiful. Go buy a dishwasher. Go buy it. Those companies. I said, `What's wrong with this thing? It doesn't clean the dishes.' Right? The women come up to me, the women who they say don't like me, they actually do like me a lot. Suburban women, please vote for me. I'm saving your house."

    Parent

    yeah, what's the matter with those women? (5.00 / 5) (#11)
    by Peter G on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 07:56:58 PM EST
    Kids in cages? Abolishing health insurance reform? Nonstop lies and personal abuse? Contempt for scientific knowledge? Who cares? What women want is a good old-fashioned water-wasting dishwasher!

    Parent
    He spent the day (none / 0) (#5)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 05:18:42 PM EST
    Attacking Fauci.  Not the way I would have gone but he's the president and I'm not.

    Parent
    Mr. Zorba (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by Zorba on Tue Oct 20, 2020 at 02:23:49 PM EST
    Wants a t-shirt that says "Listen to the scientists."

    Parent
    I (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by FlJoe on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 10:43:23 AM EST
    voted today, 17 minutes total time.

    I have made plans (none / 0) (#25)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 10:52:51 AM EST
    To visit old friends in Little Rock for Nov 3rd.  They never leave their house and I don't plan to have any human contact between now and then so we can celebrate without fearing an untimely death.

    I'm really looking forward to it having not seen living people outside Walmart for months.  Well, except my neighbor who has supplies delivered from Walmart.

    The last election we gathered for was 2000 so we have some celebrating to catch up on.  

    If not, it's better than drinking alone.

    Parent

    voted Monday (none / 0) (#26)
    by Coral on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 11:43:17 AM EST
    Took 5 minutes. Western MA. Mid-afternoon. The easiest time I've ever had voting in presidential election. I love early voting.

    Parent
    Voted a week ago (none / 0) (#28)
    by MO Blue on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 01:05:49 PM EST
    in St. Louis county. There was a line and it took me approximately an hour. It was a beautiful day and I was happy to see so many people eager to vote. Advised by friends and family who voted earlier than I did, that there was a line to get into building to vote then as well.  

    Parent
    The "mail-in" ballot that (none / 0) (#29)
    by Peter G on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 01:47:09 PM EST
    I hand-delivered a week ago to a local drop-box was acknowledged today by email as received. Apparently this took a week because the county elections office staff had not had time to scan in ballots like mine (and my wife's), as they have been so busy sending out thousands more mail-in ballots to the last-minute rush of voters who requested them just before the deadline. I am now very confident that it will be counted on Election Day, when Pennsylvania law allows the envelopes to be opened and scanned/counted.

    Parent
    Probably made you (none / 0) (#31)
    by Zorba on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 10:13:46 AM EST
    a bit nervous when you didn't here from them for a week, but they did get it.  Our ballots which Mr. Zorba had put in the county Board of Elections drop box last week, were acknowledged by email the next day.
    I was a little nervous even about the locked drop box, but my husband said they had a camera there overlooking the drop box.  I don't know how often they monitor it, but hopefully it should discourage anyone from performing some malicious acts.

    Parent
    yah, I thought about using the vote drop box (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by leap on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 10:22:12 AM EST
    outside the library, wondering if some idiot would drop a flaming torch into it -- this is what has happened to this country, thinking this could actually be a reality. Cripes, I hate thinking like that. Nonetheless, I walked to the Court House, instead, and dropped my ballot into the box outside the front door. A cop was standing nearby. The next day I saw that my ballot had been received and accepted.

    Parent
    We have other drop boxes (none / 0) (#33)
    by Zorba on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 10:59:41 AM EST
    in my county, but we thought the Board of Elections one would be more monitored.
    We were happy to receive the acknowledgment the next day, I'll tell you.
    I cannot believe that we have to worry about such things.  The loonies have always been with us, but it seems that they now feel even more emboldened to commit acts of vandalism, violence, racism, etc.  


    Parent
    In Pennsylvania, the dropboxes must be (none / 0) (#36)
    by Peter G on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 05:01:55 PM EST
    secured at all times, so they do not just sit out somewhere, like a mailbox. (Ironically, since the dropboxes are just places for the hand-delivery of "mail-in" ballots.) So they are available only at certain hours, so there can be a security guard or deputy sheriff present. Either in a public building lobby, like ChuckO's, or in a temporary mini-trailer, like mine, which is unlocked at a certain time, when the guard arrives, and you hand over your ballot into the box through a window in the trailer, under the guard's watchful eye. Six hours later, or whatever, the box is taken to the County office building to be unloaded. The box returns and trailer is unlocked at the next time when it is scheduled to be opened. The hours vary on different days, to accommodate different folks' schedules.

    Parent
    The only dropbox in my (none / 0) (#35)
    by Chuck0 on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 01:27:47 PM EST
    county is inside the lobby of the county bldg. It was monitored by election staff. Inside the bldg, but outside of security. So voters don't have to go through the scanner and empty their pockets and all that stuff just to drop off their ballot.


    Parent
    I plan on (none / 0) (#30)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 02:45:10 PM EST
    voting Monday when more early voting locations open up. So far at least the lines in my county have not been too bad.

    Parent
    Promises, promises. (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by KeysDan on Wed Oct 21, 2020 at 11:59:10 AM EST
    Trump told his audiences in Florida, on Monday; in Pennsylvania, on Tuesday; and in Iowa on Wednesday; that Mexico is paying for THE WALL.

    The planned path to victory is paved with lies, trickery and deceit.

    He told (none / 0) (#34)
    by Zorba on Thu Oct 22, 2020 at 11:02:52 AM EST
    an audience in Georgia that he would have to leave the country if he lost to Biden.
    Promise, Donald?  If only that were true!

    Parent
    Political Wire (none / 0) (#1)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 12:14:53 PM EST
    Has had a mo up they update with the following sources

    forecasts:

    Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, October 8, 2020
    Cook Political Report, September 29, 2020
    First Read, September 8, 2020
    Cook Political Report, July 24, 2020
    Inside Elections, July 17, 2020

    You can also play with the states but they have Biden at 291 to Trumps 125.

    link


    Trump getting (none / 0) (#2)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 02:21:25 PM EST
    125 EVs would be glorious. It would be the lowest EV total of a Republican in decades.

    Parent
    122 were tossup (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by CaptHowdy on Tue Oct 20, 2020 at 01:29:34 PM EST
    Trump will probably get some of them.  But the thing about wave elections, they say, is usually all or most the tossups end up going the same way.

    Parent
    This will go over well I'm sure (none / 0) (#6)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Oct 19, 2020 at 07:33:44 PM EST

    Commission on Presidential Debates says it will mute mics during parts of final debate

    A perfect excuse (