Suburban vs. Rural and Faith-Based Republicans

The New York Times reports today on efforts of suburban republicans in places like Texas who are so disgusted by Donald Trump they are organizing for Dems in the 2018 election.

“Have you ever heard of a stupider and trashier man than the president of the United States?” asked Ms. Sharp, an interior designer who lives not far from the elegant condominium where about 75 women gathered this month to help the House candidate Lizzie Pannill Fletcher. “Calling a U.S. senator ‘Pocahontas’ in front of God and everyone!”


The mounting backlash to President Trump that is threatening his party’s control of Congress is no longer confined just to swing districts on either coast. Officials in both parties believe that Republican control of the House is now in grave jeopardy because a group of districts that are historically Republican or had been trending that way before the 2016 election are slipping away.

It sounds like soccer moms vs. the under-informed Trump voter base:

From Texas to Illinois, Kansas to Kentucky, there are Republican districts filled with college-educated, affluent voters who appear to be abandoning their usually conservative leanings and newly invigorated Democrats, some of them nonwhite, who are eager to use the midterms to take out their anger on Mr. Trump.

The article also says Doug Jones won due to "African-Americans and upscale whites." The latter, are traditionally Republicans.

Shorter version: Rich Republican women who despise the vulgarity in Donald Trump are fodder for Dems in the 2018 elections.

It would be nice to see some numbers like how many wealthy Republican suburban voters are there compared to the rural under-informed voters who make up Trump's base.

Added: From NPR: Why evangelicals are sticking with Trump.

We are talking about white evangelical Protestants, especially the core of "born again" or "fundamentalist" believers among them. As voters, they went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016 more than 80 percent in the November election, according to exit polls the highest degree of loyalty the group has ever shown a presidential candidate.
The reason:
It is not that evangelicals think Trump is one of them, but rather that they believe he is being used by God. As the Bible says, "By their fruits ye shall know them," (Matthew 7:20) and so far Trump's crop has looked pretty good.

Trump may not seem worthy as an instrument of the Lord's will, but that judgment is not ours to make and belongs to someone else. So as long as Trump seems to be doing the Lord's work, Trump will be just fine with the people of the Lord.

So how many voters is this? 80% of them went for Trump but are we talking thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of voters?
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    In our upper middle class, highly educated (none / 0) (#1)
    by Peter G on Mon Dec 18, 2017 at 01:03:42 PM EST
    suburban township outside of Philadelphia, the voter registration has gone from around 70-30 Repub to around 65-35 Dem in the 35 years we have lived here. Township Commission (our City Council), elected by wards, has been 11-3 Dem for the last eight years. The R's are civilized, sane, moderate, old-fashioned (true) conservatives, and just as smart, decent, educated, and civic-minded as the D's. In this year's election, one of the R incumbents, in a R-dominated ward, was overthrown by a less-qualified, newbie D, for no reason that I or anyone else can see other than that he had an R next to his name and people here, of both parties, are so angry. The political mood is ugly, and for good reason.

    Fundamentalists and evangelicals (none / 0) (#2)
    by Chuck0 on Mon Dec 18, 2017 at 01:39:15 PM EST
    have been voting for Republicans cycle after cycle because of promises of changes to social issues. To which the GOP has stabbed them in the back time and time again. Yet they still come back for more. The next guy will do their bidding. And of course, all the GOP candidates are anointed by god. Look at how well that anointing went for Moore. They are ignorant, superstitious people who will also vote this way until they shed themselves of their mythologies and invisible friend in the sky.

    I would add (none / 0) (#4)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Dec 18, 2017 at 07:43:30 PM EST
    They are ignorant, superstitious people

    There is a racial aspect.  


    Hundreds of thousands (none / 0) (#3)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Dec 18, 2017 at 07:42:04 PM EST
    There is so much said in forums like this that make it blindingly obvious people who live and work in urban or even suburban places do not understand how wide spread these people are in rural America.

    There is a reason the entire country appears red in national elections with blue spots around urban centers.

    This disparity is a problem.  Right now for example in the Senate we have what approaches 30% of the Senate representing 70% of the population.  And vice versa.

    Upside (none / 0) (#5)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Dec 18, 2017 at 07:49:31 PM EST
    The mask of respectability has been torn away.  I was listening to a bunch if republicans discuss this the other day.  

    They will never be taken seriously or be able to wave the morality flag with out being laughed at.

    Their numbers are shrinking.  Their political clout is as well. They are dying off.  

    NBC has a poll out in the last few days that show democrats are preferred to republicans by a 48% margin by those under 45.

    Oops (none / 0) (#6)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Dec 18, 2017 at 07:55:22 PM EST
    under 35

    69 to 21


    Pew did a very in depth (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Dec 18, 2017 at 09:07:49 PM EST
    study of this a few years ago and I tried explaining this to someone when it came to the whole bake a cake for a gay wedding thing. I told the person that no matter what the supreme court decides it is going to be a losing issue for any bakery to start denying wedding cakes to gay people due to the fact that a huge number of young people support gay marriage and if you don't support gay marriage they really don't want to listen to anything else you have to say. This person started whining and saying we'll buy from the bakery. I said 65 year olds are not the ones buying wedding cakes. Pew made it clear in their research if you don't want to include gay people as part of the fabric of our society then the young crowd just doesn't want to listen to anything else you have to say.

    If only (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by CST on Tue Dec 19, 2017 at 08:35:09 AM EST
    They'd show up to vote.

    Well, when they (none / 0) (#11)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Dec 19, 2017 at 03:43:11 PM EST
    start passing 30 I bet they will start voting in record numbers. For some reason 20 somethings have never been that great about voting.

    I'll say this much (none / 0) (#9)
    by CST on Tue Dec 19, 2017 at 08:36:41 AM EST
    I don't get the impression that young Republicans are holy-rollers.  That's not to say they don't exist, but they definitely don't even attempt to claim a moral high ground.

    This is what my daughter says (none / 0) (#10)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Dec 19, 2017 at 10:26:21 AM EST
    Also about her generation coming of age in Alabama. And she is a Christian, I am not but my children get to choose for themselves.

    My daughter foresees a very different future. I wonder though. Because as the old guard passes on they will attempt to toss the keys of power to those they believe will maintain their status quo.


    They will attempt (none / 0) (#12)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Dec 19, 2017 at 03:47:17 PM EST
    to pass the keys to those who will keep the status quo but it's not gonna work. The older generation sent their kids to segregation academies but their chidlren largely don't seem to be doing that as much. One benefit so to speak of income inequality. These middle class people really can't afford the academies anymore.

    Silver lining of sorts. (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Dec 19, 2017 at 04:17:02 PM EST