NY Times: Trump is Plunging

The New York Times reports:

Donald J. Trump’s support has plunged across the swing-state map over the last 10 days, wiping out his political recovery from September and threatening to undo weeks of Republican gains in the battle for control of Congress.

...Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop, especially among independent voters, moderate Republicans and women, according to a dozen strategists from both parties who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the data was confidential.

A new Monmouth poll has Hillary up in Ohio -- but just slightly. However, when it comes to temperment: [More...]

Clinton has an even wider advantage on the issue of presidential temperament. Significantly more voters say Clinton has the right temperament for the job (59%) than say the same about Trump (33%).

Trump's former accountant Jack Mitnick, who was in charge of his tax returns from the 1960's to 1996, was on TV this week. He said Trump doesn't understand the tax code and had nothing to do with preparing his return.

"As far as I know, and that only goes through late '96, he didn't understand the code," said Jack Mitnick, a former tax adviser for Trump, in an interview with NBC's TODAY. "Nor would he have had the time and the patience to learn the provisions. That's a lifetime of experience."

He said Ivana was more interested than Trump in the topic. All Trump cared about was the bottom line.

Mitnick, however, told the TODAY show Tuesday that Trump was "not at all" involved in the 1995 filing. "He was interested in the bottom line, not the detail," Mitnick said. "Staff under my supervision did his returns - he had no involvement in the preparation."

So did Trump use business losses to offset his personal tax liability? Mitnick won't say -- he says you have to draw your own conclusions, but everything Trump did was legal in the tax code. He also warned against assuming the loss of $915 million was generated in 1995 -- he said you can't determine that from the one page released by the New York Times.

So much for the "genius" of Trump.

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    He is no kind of genius (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by ruffian on Wed Oct 05, 2016 at 10:40:18 PM EST
    Another scam being reported....he had an arrangement with a jewelry store where he'd bring his lady in and pick out something of course extremely expensive, and say to ship it to NJ to avoid NY sales tax. The store would ship an empty box to NJ  lady would walk out of the store with the item.

    I believe that one is illegal.

    Illegal, yes. On the other hand, (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Mr Natural on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 07:22:30 AM EST
    New York taxes are criminal.

    "We don't pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes" - Leona Helmsley


    NY Taxes (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 10:48:02 AM EST
    are high, but they pay for extensive services afforded to those of us who live here. Where else can you get around easily without owning a car? We complain about snow removal every year, but buses are usually up and running within hours after a bad snow storm. I have also lived in burbs of another state, and snow removal and other services were at the mercy of real estate taxes, so snow removal was often non-existent or way slow.

    There are a lot of public services being ... (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 12:52:33 PM EST
    ... being provided to us which we tend to take for granted. But we'd sure take notice quickly if they weren't.

    In re: Helmsley (none / 0) (#6)
    by Peter G on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 11:07:49 AM EST
    See my comment #4, just above.

    Do you have any proof that Trump (2.00 / 1) (#25)
    by jimakaPPJ on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 11:40:25 AM EST
    did this??

    And whether he did our did not, the argument is that those who do rob government of funds needed to run the government.

    Have you ever purchased anything over the Internet and didn't pay sales taxes?


    If that's who needs to run the government (none / 0) (#26)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 12:07:38 PM EST
    Then how come you aren't rooting for all those welfare users and abusers to run the government too?

    Well there's just something (none / 0) (#27)
    by jondee on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 12:28:26 PM EST
    about a self-absorbed uber-rich guy with a "beautiful piece of as*" wife that makes some tea bagger types hearken back to the Founding Fathers, Lincoln, and FDR..

    It's the dignity of bearing..the embodying of all that we aspire to..


    Speaking of dignity of bearing, ... (none / 0) (#40)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 04:47:25 PM EST
    ... there's this little misogynistic bombshell that Trump dropped on a hot mic back in Sept. 2005, which apparently had a delayed fuse and waited until today to explode:

    "When, you're a star, they let you do whatever you want. Grab 'em by the pu$$y. You can do anything."

    If that rude, crude and lewd comment, coming as it did from a late middle-aged married man whose third wife was then pregnant with his fifth child, doesn't finally drive women to the polls en masse to collectively repudiate this hypergesticulating Schittstain, then I'm truly at a loss for words.



    Yeah, that was (none / 0) (#41)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 04:53:08 PM EST
    a doozy and it was said to George W. Bush's cousin. Classy group that Bush family is.

    In about five minutes, ... (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 05:05:13 PM EST
    ... Speaker Ryan's office will issue the following public statement:

    "While I roundly denounce Mr. Trump's juvenile braggadocio and vigorously condemn his puerile and crass comment about grabbing women by their naughty bits, I nevertheless believe that he's the best person to become our next president, and I look forward to campaigning with him tomorrow in Wisconsin and introducing him to my mother."



    I shouldn't be surprised by anything Trump does, (5.00 / 2) (#43)
    by Cashmere on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 05:24:42 PM EST
    but this one takes the cake.  I will NEVER understand how anyone can support or vote for him.  

    And HRC should say *nothing* (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by Peter G on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 05:31:45 PM EST
    about it Sunday. Just let it fester and spread over the interwebs.

    Listening to CNN and Corey L. trying to spin this (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Cashmere on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 05:38:38 PM EST
    and how Hillary is so much worse and the fact that we don't know have Sec. Clinton's speech transcripts is worse...  is just amazingly silly.  There is NO WAY that this won't backfire on Trump.  If his disgusting behavior is accepted by voters, well, I will never know what to think about his supporters.  

    Oh, I bet money (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 06:20:59 PM EST
    his behavior will be accepted by his supporters. Because Hillary. Everything Donald does is acceptable to his supporters Because Hillary. I have to laugh at all those evangelical leaders who never checked out Donald and the Republicans who apparently never really checked into his background. The GOP should be called The Stupid Party from now on.

    Exactly. (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 06:02:27 PM EST
    As President Woodrow Wilson once quipped in a letter to a friend, "There's no need to murder a man who is committing suicide."

    That is the key. The POTUS race is over (none / 0) (#49)
    by ruffian on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 06:19:08 PM EST
    Time to hang this rock around the neck of every other GOPer running for any office anywhere.

    The wingbats have skeedaddled. (none / 0) (#56)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 07:37:13 PM EST
    While I fully expect one final and half-hearted pushback from them in the name of Gennifer Flowers and Juanita Broaddrick, I'm betting that today's disclosures have likely caused them to curl up collectively in fetal positions.

    Billy Bush has since issued an apology ... (none / 0) (#51)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 07:11:19 PM EST
    ... in the wake of this breaking story, in which he claims:

    "Obviously I am embarrassed and ashamed. It's no excuse, but this happened eleven years ago - I was younger, less mature, and I acted foolishly in playing along. I'm very sorry."

    And to that, I would only note that Bush was 33 years old at the time of this conversation with the then-59-year-old Trump.



    some of them want to abuse you.. (none / 0) (#65)
    by jondee on Sat Oct 08, 2016 at 07:19:18 AM EST
    some of them want to be abused..

    There are people - I'm not going to limit it to women - who will happily lay down and let themselves be broiled and consumed by the likes of Trump.

    We'll see just how many there are in this country come November.


    Yes, here's the proof (none / 0) (#54)
    by Peter G on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 07:32:14 PM EST
    he admitted it (as did Henry Kissinger) at the time, and testified against his co-conspirators to avoid prosecution. It happened in 1986.

    Mary Tyler Moore???!! (none / 0) (#59)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 08:29:45 PM EST
    Mary loves Fox News (none / 0) (#64)
    by jondee on Sat Oct 08, 2016 at 06:26:03 AM EST
    somehow it fits.

    None of this should be surprising to anyone. Getting over on the government is a party game to the folks who've been told by the "Great Communicator", Margaret Thatcher, and the Prophet Ayn Rand that they already provide the nation's life blood simply by existing.

    So, the outrageous suggestion that they actually pay taxes on top of the blessings they already provide to all of us becomes a cruel-and-unusual and wholy tyrannical imposition.

    I've dealt with these folks in the antiques business. People who take in 20k a week who crow about how they paid a clueless little old lady fifty bucks for a piece worth 20 thousand. It's just a game to them.


    That is (none / 0) (#2)
    by TrevorBolder on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 06:05:40 AM EST
    A common one used by many,

    Not a genius there.

    Stores will quietly promote that with their good customers

    Tax avoidance or tax evasion......


    In my professional opinion (5.00 / 6) (#4)
    by Peter G on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 10:32:14 AM EST
    it is tax fraud - that is, evasion not avoidance. And petty chiseling by a self-described billionaire, so that it reflects on moral character as well as law-abidingness. Much more so than taking advantage of lawful but unfair tax provisions like the "net operating loss carry-forward." You really wanna quote Leona Helmsley (fellow hotel magnate)? She was criminally prosecuted for acting on that philosophy -- an investigation which, perhaps ironically, began with complaints about her failure to pay contractors -- and did in fact go to prison for almost two years.

    It isn't petty chiseling; (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 11:19:58 AM EST
    It's chiseling as a way of life for the Donalds and Leonas of this world.  They view themselves as sharp and anyone who doesn't position theirself to take advantage of every possible situation and relationship, as dull.  They respect only those with equally sharp talons.

    It is not a small irony that Donald's base of support lies in people he would happily eat for lunch - if they were served on white linens.


    because.. (none / 0) (#23)
    by jondee on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 11:24:28 AM EST
    they look up to and respect someone who would happily eat them for lunch. For that very reason.

    Sometimes onerous (none / 0) (#18)
    by TrevorBolder on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 06:01:49 AM EST
    Taxes promote this conduct

    See NY cigarette tax laws.

    Eric Garner would not have been out selling "Lucys"
    If not for the onerous tax laws, and then the NYC officials cracking down on illegal cigarette sales  due to complaints from store owners.

    So, if the store owners actually did mail the merchandise to the NJ address, it is avoidance, but mailing a empty box is evasion.
    The store owner actually does go ahead with th e mailing, they need to prove the mailing when audited by NYS sales tax officials, however, they cannot prove "What was in the Box"!


    You seem to be confusing the question (5.00 / 3) (#19)
    by Peter G on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 10:09:56 AM EST
    of "was it a crime," with the questions "will I get caught, and if I do, can they prove a case against me." Many of my clients, presently residing in federal prison, suffered from the same confusion.
       I did enjoy your suggestion that criminal laws cause crime, however. I guess that's true. If it wasn't against the law, then no one would commit a crime by doing it, and there would thus be less "crime." Brilliant!

    UPS, Fedex, and the USPS weigh every single (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 10:55:08 AM EST
    package.  Who knows the resolution of their measurements...  Who knows how long that data persists in their systems...  Long enough for their costs analysts to use it as input into their pricing model, certainly.

    I know nothing about New York sales tax audits or auditors, but that shipping weight data is out their somewhere.  Empty packages weigh less than packages with jewelry in them.  That fact is hanging like a Sword of Damocles over the heads of those "I'm smarter than the rubes who pay sales taxes" jerks.  

    Well, I'd like it to be.


    So, digging a little deeper, it turns out (none / 0) (#55)
    by Peter G on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 07:35:55 PM EST
    that the boxes the store mailed to the dummy out-of-state addresses were not "empty." They contained cheap costume jewelry, while the rich cheaters walked out of the store in NYC with the good stuff.

    Favorite election humor so far (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by ruffian on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 05:45:36 PM EST
    People spreading this picture of Ted Cruz phone banking for Trump with an unhappy face...some wth great captions, like 'Yes, I have accepted the fact that my father killed JFK".

    Cruz phone bank

    I don't think this is a secret (5.00 / 2) (#31)
    by mm on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 12:47:11 PM EST
    In an illegal attempt to evade the tax, Trump "asked" the store to instead ship the jewelry to an out of state location, where no New York sales tax could be collected. In fact, the store would merely send an empty jewelry box to the location, while Trump and his lady friends walked out the door with the jewelry that very day.

    The state and city tax collectors eventually caught onto this scheme, and Trump promptly testified against his erstwhile tax evasion colluding partners at the jewelry store in order to save his own skin.

    Oh, puh-LEEZE! (5.00 / 3) (#35)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 01:31:41 PM EST
    JimakaPPJ: "Since Hillary has never did anything except be in government I'd say she's been on welfare."

    Hillary Clinton was a full partner in Little Rock's prestigious Rose Law Firm for over a decade, and in the 1980s and early '90s was recognized as one of the top litigators in the country. In fact, because her husband's salary as governor was only $35,000 annually, she was the family's primary breadwinner. What an incredibly ignorant thing for you to say, since the odds are better than even that 22 years ago, you were one those people who were screaming for the Rose Law Firm to release Mrs. Clinton's billing records.

    Try again, Jim.

    Clinton up 11 in MI (none / 0) (#8)
    by smott on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 02:07:21 PM EST
    That together with bumps in PA and FL could be enough.
    OH is too white to switch I believe.

    Is this post debate bounce merely a bounce, or is this the new mean?

    It is October 6 today (none / 0) (#9)
    by Peter G on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 02:59:29 PM EST
    not November 8.

    "Paul Ryan Burns Final Shred Of Dignity, (none / 0) (#10)
    by Mr Natural on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 03:52:42 PM EST
    - Will Campaign With Trump"

    Ryan's campaign released a media advisory Thursday titled, "Paul Ryan to Attend Annual Fall Fest in Walworth County." It's an event in Ryan's home state, and the advisory lists lots of state officials attending.

    Oh, and three paragraphs in, it mentions Trump will be there too.

    Read Krugman today (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 04:24:21 PM EST
    and he pokes a whole in the whole nonsense about Ryan. It's really about there's no serious person in the GOP these days so Ryan got assigned the "serious person" label even though in reality he's no more serious than any other Republican.

    Here is (none / 0) (#24)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 11:30:25 AM EST
    Krugman's blog post, The King of False Equivalence

    My recommendation: skip Krugman.  Read the comments.


    Looking at today's polls (none / 0) (#13)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 07:32:41 PM EST
    seems as though Dems are taking a bit of a hit; both national and key state polls down for Hillary. I hope the polls will go back up for her after the next debate.  

    this isnt correct (none / 0) (#14)
    by linea on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 07:56:19 PM EST
    nate silver's 538 now-cast has hillary 85.3% to trump 14.7%(based on electoral college) if the vote was held today. not politics; just poll crunching.

    You are the only one i have heard say that (none / 0) (#15)
    by ruffian on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 08:15:00 PM EST
    but sure, I hope they do nothing but improve for the next 30 days.

    I've stopped worrying, FWIW.


    I was just looking (none / 0) (#16)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Oct 06, 2016 at 10:42:11 PM EST
    at State and national Presidential and senate polls posted at realclearpolitics. I saw what Nate Silver has, so I am confused.

    You have to be (none / 0) (#17)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 04:40:44 AM EST
    careful with RCP because they cherry pick the polls.

    nate silver (none / 0) (#57)
    by linea on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 08:06:24 PM EST
    weighs polls based on proven accuracy and error rate. his models take the differing validity of (multiple) polls into account. it's wonky but the most accurate.

    Trump's Super-Pac Pals (none / 0) (#20)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 10:20:26 AM EST
    - a report about the Billionaire Hedge Phamily, the Mercers, people who can count themselves among the counted.  Research from the Center for Public Integrity.

    No Tax Returns, No Job. (none / 0) (#29)
    by KeysDan on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 12:39:46 PM EST
    Ethics counsel for two presidents, Norman Eisen and Richard Painter, (NYTi October 7,2016) present how nominations to senate confirmation positions would be doomed by any nominee who tried to pull what Trump is pulling on the American people.

    Nominees were asked for a waiver so as to get tax information from the IRS. and they also asked nominees to have their tax returns ready for a Senate request. If the White House were to so much as delay in disclosing the tax returns much less tell the Senate that the nominee did not want to disclose them, the nomination would be dead on arrival.  

    Geez, Jim, have you already forgotten (none / 0) (#30)
    by Mr Natural on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 12:46:46 PM EST
    the Rose Law firm?  Clinton was a practicing attorney there.  She made Partner.

    Jim's comment was deleted for (none / 0) (#67)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Oct 09, 2016 at 12:26:21 AM EST
    demonstrably false facts.

    Have I ever what? (none / 0) (#34)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 01:16:20 PM EST

    Have you ever whatever? (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 01:38:23 PM EST
    C'mon now, MT, 'fess up! What did you never know about whatever, and when and where did you ever not know it?

    Omg I needed that (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 01:49:43 PM EST
    The psychos are getting me today :) I tried...I tried to ignore them. The elections can't get here soon enough.

    The psychos are out (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 02:54:18 PM EST
    in full force today. They think if they scream loud enough they can reverse the trend for Trump. But in their heart of hearts they know it's the end no matter how much they scream. I mean when the WSJ is even going after Trump the end is nigh.

    ... the so-called "terrible twos," that period of screaming tantrums during which toddlers eventually come to realize that perhaps they're not the center of everyone's universe after all.

    Next up for the GOP's Toddler-in-Chief, a trip down memory lane to the days of the "Central Park Five," in which their former loudmouthed accuser once again insists that they were guilty, even though DNA tests exonerated them of the crime 14 years ago.

    We've been stranded in a Fellini film that's unfolding in real time.


    Last night after the Trump thing blew (none / 0) (#66)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Oct 08, 2016 at 08:20:33 AM EST
    My Conservative friends went into passive aggressive mode. They were so angry but couldn't say a word about the election so they plotted out how many guns they must all own in order to take care of the scary clown problem ;). They are all really really starting to scare me now.

    Andrea Mitchell is waving around the alleged (none / 0) (#48)
    by ruffian on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 06:15:36 PM EST
    transcripts or nots of Hillary Clintons speeches to Goldman Sachs, which she says were obtained form hackers connected to the Russians...or something like that. She has not read them yet. LOL.

    Should be a fun weekend.

    Hopefully, ... (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 07:29:57 PM EST
    ... Mrs. Greenspan will be announcing her retirement soon.

    we can only (none / 0) (#69)
    by Amiss on Sun Oct 09, 2016 at 03:03:50 PM EST
    hope. She gets on my last nerve.

    we can only (none / 0) (#70)
    by Amiss on Sun Oct 09, 2016 at 03:04:23 PM EST
    hope. She gets on my last nerve.

    These are not the speech transcripts. (none / 0) (#60)
    by caseyOR on Fri Oct 07, 2016 at 08:49:14 PM EST
    They are, allegedly, emails from John Podesta's email account, which was hacked. They were released by Wikileaks who supposedly got them from the Russian hackers.

    The story is that when Sanders was demanding that Clinton release the teanscripts her campaign reviewed the speeches to see what parts of the speeches could be spun in a harmful way. The campaign staff listed bullet points and possible negative headlines that could be used. The emails detail those bullet points, excerpts and imaginary headlines.

    Now, I have also read that there is some evidence that the Russians are doctoring hacked emails before passing them on to Wikileaks. No idea if these Podesta's emails were doctored.


    Off topic comments (none / 0) (#68)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Oct 09, 2016 at 12:28:59 AM EST
    not about Trump and the election deleted.