He was turned in by his closest business associate, the trafficker Ismael Zambada, some argue, because Zambada was suspicious that the arrest of his own top people earlier this month was due to a betrayal by Guzmán. Or, he was at the cheap beachfront apartment with its dinky furniture because he had become overconfident, and was looking forward to watching this coming weekend’s carnival parade with his wife and daughters from the Miramar’s balcony. Or, he was arrested because “something bad” happened between Guzmán, president Enrique Peña Nieto, and the ruling party of Mexico, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional, or PRI.
I think the speculation that Zambada-Garcia turned on him is the least likely scenario -- as is the reverse speculation that Chapo was intentionally responsible for the recent arrests of Zambada-Garcia's security team members. If the first scenario is correct -- he turned himself in upon agreement with the Mexican Government -- I can't imagine he would do so without a provision that he would not be extradited. That would be a huge slap to the DEA and the U.S. Government.
If he agreed to turn himself in, why would Mexico have needed the DEA's technological assistance in pinpointing his location through his phone?
Chapo obviously knew they were on to him after his narrow escape from the under the bathtub tunnel in Culiacan-- and the arrests of Daniel Fernández Domínguez, aka "The Pelacas", on February 12, Jesus Enrique Sandoval Romero, alias "El 19", the security chief for Ismael Zambada-Garcia, on Feb. 13, and Jesús Peña, aka "El 20", on Feb. 20.
It is curious that knowing of these arrests in Culiacan, he only had one bodyguard with him in Mazatlan. But I doubt he would have exposed his wife and daughters to the imminent physical danger posed by a military squad operation even if the arrest was staged.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. I'm not yet convinced by any of the alternative theories that Chapo engineered or was a willing participant in his own arrest, or that he turned on Zambada-Garcia or vice-versa.
It also seems to me the tension between the U.S. and Mexico over Chapo's extradition is real, and Mexico will not turn him over to the U.S. anytime soon. I don't think Mexican President Nieto wants to hold onto Chapo as a symbol of his government's willingness to go after drug traffickers. I think he wants to keep him to milk him for information about the corrupt officials who aided him over the past 13 years. If Nieto can prosecute and convict the public officials, he can claim to have successfully targeted corruption, which is a much bigger trophy than capturing a drug lord. If to do that, he has to make a deal with Chapo, I think there's little doubt he will do so.
