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Challenges to Romney's Electoral Vote Path

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:35:50 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney (all tags)
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I'm still creating various scenarios with CNN's electoral vote map. It seems to me Mitt Romney has the more limited paths to victory.

Even if Romney wins Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, given the leanings of the other battleground states, he will need Colorado or New Hampshire to reach 270. He can't lose both. (Added: Changed from saying he needs both.)See map below: [More...]

If he wins Florida but loses either Ohio or Virginia, he will fall short, even winning both Colorado and New Hampshire.

Pennsylvania and Iowa seem out of his grasp. I think it comes down to Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire.

Out of 2.7 million voters in Colorado, 1.7 million have already voted. Republican early voters outnumber Democrats by 25,000 so I won't be surprised if Colorado goes to Romney. Things that could make it go the other way: Independents (more than 400,000 have already voted) and Amendment 64 (to decriminalize personal adult possession of small amounts of marijuana).

I still believe President Obama will win either comfortably or in a squeaker. Nate Silver now predicts Obama will get 307 electoral votes.

But you need to vote. Every vote counts towards winning a state. Don't rely on polls, or the belief you are in a "safe" state. The race is too close.

Update: Public Policy's final election poll out today increases Obama's probable electoral college votes and shows Obama with a 6 point lead in Colorado. The only two states not leaning one way or the other are North Carolina and Florida.

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    Challenges to Romney's Electoral Vote Path | 73 comments (73 topical)

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    If experience in polling analysis (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by KeysDan on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:40:46 PM EST
    counts,  Lou Harris one of the first presidential pollsters who worked on the John F. Kennedy campaign in 1960 (who is now 9l years old) and sharp as a tack) told me today that he feels President Obama will win in a landslide.   Hope this pollster-emeritus  has not lost his touch, pretty re-assuring.

    I hope he's right also (none / 0) (#7)
    by nycstray on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:48:28 PM EST
    Then we need to do a mashup of all the talking heads along with the actual results :D

    Parent
    Don't worry (5.00 / 3) (#9)
    by Peter G on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:09:42 PM EST
    Jon Stewart is surely already working on that.

    Parent
    Ross Douhat: (none / 0) (#8)
    by oculus on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:51:30 PM EST
    Prediction time:  Obama survives

    Parent
    Oh, Jayzus. Is there anyone worse than him at (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:17:41 PM EST
    the Times?  Besides Brooks?  Have you read the comments?

    Parent
    Could not make myself read them. (none / 0) (#19)
    by oculus on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:45:09 PM EST
    Did read Dowd last night.

    Parent
    No re comments. Did read (none / 0) (#20)
    by oculus on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:46:12 PM EST
    Dowd last night.

    Parent
    It could happen! (none / 0) (#21)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:47:36 PM EST
    I was actually very bullish on an Obama landslide for most of this cycle.

    It could also just be wacky all over.  With one unexpected state flipping one way.  And another flipping the other.

    Parent

    With friends like these (5.00 / 3) (#22)
    by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:53:23 PM EST
    Some of you may have seen this. It's not often I can sit and listen to a handful of republicans talk for five minutes, but

    this is pretty good

    I'm not that brave. Especially with Gulianni (none / 0) (#24)
    by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:02:39 PM EST
    in the mix.

    Parent
    You shoukd hold on (none / 0) (#31)
    by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:21:46 PM EST
    until you catch one of Newt's answers. I spit my tea.

    Parent
    Maybe after dinner and a couple glasses of (none / 0) (#37)
    by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:02:44 PM EST
    wine.

    Parent
    It's the second time Newt comes up (none / 0) (#39)
    by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:06:30 PM EST
    in the video. Enjoy the wine.

    Parent
    :) I'm drinking a good pinot, not sure I want (none / 0) (#40)
    by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:17:54 PM EST
    to waste any blowing on my keyboard, so thanks for the warning.

    Parent
    I rely on news organizations... (none / 0) (#34)
    by unitron on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:45:13 PM EST
    ...and the Comedy Channel to listen to Republicans so that I don't have to.

    Parent
    Blissfully happy tonight (5.00 / 3) (#23)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:02:33 PM EST
    Chicken enchiladas in the oven, Obama landslide tomorrow.  Josh told me that if teens decided the Presidential election, Obama got 403 electoral votes in teen voting.

    Kids really are smarter than adults. (5.00 / 3) (#25)
    by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:03:03 PM EST


    Parent
    Usually (none / 0) (#26)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:03:37 PM EST


    Parent
    There are always exceptions. :) (none / 0) (#27)
    by Angel on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:04:18 PM EST


    Parent
    I saw a headline today: if 13-yr. olds (none / 0) (#66)
    by oculus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:50:19 AM EST
    could vote.  !!!!

    Parent
    MT - fairly peaceful here, (5.00 / 2) (#32)
    by DFLer on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:32:55 PM EST
    Prepping for a day at the polls as election judge, reviewing opening duties, who to assign what etc.

    ticking of the list of what to take, snacks, cookies,...oh yes...packing two pairs of cheaters for voters who forget them,

    will party with my caucus at 9:00 pm -sh to watch returns at Charlie's Bar...might stop by my neighbor, state rep., who usually serves very good beer....democracy in action!

    Parent

    Thank you so much for working tomorrow (5.00 / 3) (#36)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:59:07 PM EST


    Parent
    This is what it was like in Florida today. (5.00 / 3) (#48)
    by caseyOR on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:31:25 PM EST
    Charlie Pierce is on-the-ground in Florida. His report on the insanity of Florida's assault on voters this election season would, if it was happening in another country not the U.S.A., have the U.S. State Department in overdrive protesting these efforts to deny people their vote.

    What is happening in so many states is exactly the kind of voter suppression that we claim to oppose. Were this happening in a country in Central or South America or SE Asia or Eastern Europe or just about anywhere else on earth, the U.N. would be sending in poll watchers, the U.S. would be up in arms, Congress, people like Peter King, would be blowing a gasket over these egregious actions.

    Instead, we can't even get a national press that takes this seriously, that recognizes these actions for the evil that they are, much less a full-throated protest from members of Congress.

    I am ashamed of the example we are setting for the rest of the world.

    Let me just add, all of this insanity (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by caseyOR on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:45:45 PM EST
    makes me especially sad today. One hundred years ago today Oregon became the seventh state to grant women the right to vote. It would be several more years before all women in the U.S. got that right.

    For decades women asked and protested and were jailed and were beaten and were force-fed while on hunger strikes and were mocked as they fought for the franchise. They knew how important it was to have the vote, how important it was that all citizens have a voice in how they are governed.

    For so long the United States has been a beacon for people around the world fighting for their right to vote. Those days are over. We have abdicated our leadership on this issue. We have failed ourselves and our ideals.

    So, I am sad.

    Parent

    I heard on the news tonite (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by Amiss on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 11:00:39 PM EST
    that the Florida governor acts like he thinks he is a dictator in a third world country. I am so sad. To make matters worse,  we are predicted to get more bad weather tomorrow. My heart breaks for those in the NE and for all Americans.

    Parent
    I still don't understand how NY and NJ (none / 0) (#63)
    by shoephone on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:36:43 AM EST
    voters are going to be able to vote. With tens of thousands having lost their homes, are they going to have the inclination to figure out where they're supposed to vote and go do it? They have such enormous basic needs to deal with right now. And power still isn't on in a lot of areas. Will their usual polling places even be in existence anymore?

    Parent
    Which is why my FL brother is on the (5.00 / 2) (#67)
    by oculus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:52:39 AM EST
    phone and on the street.  I've never seen him so determined.  

    Parent
    What could be his last update (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by CoralGables on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:13:04 PM EST
    Nate Silver has increased Obama's chances of winning to 91.4% and to win 314.4 electoral votes.

    That's the computer talking on the 314.4. If Obama takes every state Nate is projecting right now Obama will win the EV 332-206.

    And tomorrow I drive a few elderly Spanish speaking citizens to the polls for the Obama campaign and get to practice my very limited Spanish.

    Votar Obama. Yo soy su conductor.
    (or something like that in a gringo accent)

    I hope Obama wins every state where the GOP (5.00 / 3) (#55)
    by caseyOR on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:14:45 PM EST
    enacted voter suppression laws. Every single one.

    Parent
    Yup (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by ruffian on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:24:35 PM EST
    Maybe if all else fails they will someday try to win votes by putting forward reasonable  candidates and policies.

    It's a long shot, but a girl can dream.

    Parent

    Did you see this NYT Op Ed? (none / 0) (#68)
    by oculus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:53:51 AM EST
    link

    Parent
    "Fundamental disdain for the facts" (5.00 / 2) (#69)
    by ruffian on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:20:45 AM EST
    That is what makes me crazy. So cynical. Worse is the people that know what is going on and vote for Romney anyway because they think he will save them a few bucks. Selling out their country, IMO.

    Parent
    Hope you saw PPP's last CO poll released... (none / 0) (#1)
    by magster on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:58:40 PM EST
    this morning that had O + 6 in CO.

    Also, please refer to my comment #59 in the last thread. I am sincerely grateful.

    GOP voter disenfranchisement.... (none / 0) (#2)
    by magster on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:35:51 PM EST
    ... dates back at least to the Reagan era.

    Pretty Sure it Dates Back to... (none / 0) (#4)
    by ScottW714 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:05:14 PM EST
    ...the 15th Amendment and those poll taxes, so Grant.  And while they may have been Dixiecrats, they disenfranchised the same folks, for the same reasons.

    Parent
    To quote David Frum ... (none / 0) (#46)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:00:33 PM EST
    %%norm_fo