home

Sunday Electoral Maps

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:54:00 AM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney (all tags)
Share This: Digg! StumbleUpon del.icio.us reddit reddit

I posted some electoral college result scenarios here, but I've now whittled them down to three. Obama wins in all three: In his worst case scenario, he wins with 271 electors. The second has him winning with 280. In his best scenario, he wins with 299.

At this point, I think Meatloaf would have to bring his Bats of out of Hell for Romney to win. The maps are below: [More...]

The squeaker: Obama 271, Mitt 265

More comfortable win: Obama 280, Mitt 250

Better Case Scenario: Obama gets 293

Best Case Scenario: Obama gets 299

I really don't see how Mitt Romney wins, so long as Obama supporters vote. Since 15,000 showed up last night to hear Obama and Clinton together in Virginia, I suspect VA will go to him as well, but I've calculated both VA ways.

To be on the cautious side, I've given Florida and New Hampshire to Romney, and in some scenarios Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. I used Colorado and Iowa both ways, since they seem to be the only swing states truly up in the air (with Virginia close behind.) Obama has Ohio and PA, and Nevada is now leaning to him, so I gave Obama those.

Anyone have similar predictions, or disagreements with my maps? I made a lttle poll on this below.

< Romney Adviser Lobbied for Homosexuality to Be A Crime | Romney May Need Both VA and PA to Win >

Poll

Which State is Obama Least Likely to Win?
♦ Nevada 0%
♦ Colorado 3%
♦ Iowa 3%
♦ Virginia 7%
♦ Florida 42%
♦ Will Lose More Than One 7%
♦ Will Win All of them 34%

Votes: 26
Results | Other Polls

  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft


    • Display: Sort:
    Sunday Electoral Maps | 90 comments (90 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment

    Ack! (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Lena on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:38:56 AM EST
    No matter which map you look at, Florida's red. Count me as one of those people who really didn't want to vote for Obama (Go Jill Stein!).... but what with my home state red, I'm going to have to suck it up and vote for Obama.

    I appreciate all the GOTV stuff you've been doing, but I just wanted to vote for someone I believed in. Ah well, if I just think of it as a vote against Romney, I'll be fine.

    Lose, Romney!!!!

    You are voting for someone.... (none / 0) (#24)
    by magster on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:47:21 AM EST
    ... the Anti-Romney.

    Parent
    No, (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by Lena on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:33:29 PM EST
    I'm afraid not. The Anti-Romney would be Paul Wellstone. Or FDR. Unfortunately, they're dead and I'm stuck with Obama.

    Parent
    Think of it as... (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by unitron on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:34:03 PM EST
    ...like, Paul Lynde, to block.

    The important part here is to keep The Romney out of office.

    Parent

    I'm going with your best case scenario. (5.00 / 3) (#3)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:04:14 AM EST
    I'm in (northern) Virginia and I'm feeling very optimistic about it here.

    I did some volunteering last week downstate - it feels like Virginia is blue to me! Just intuition, but I'm very excited.

    agreed dr. molly. (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by cpinva on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:49:47 AM EST
    i'm dead center, between DC & richmond. my fair little city will probably go red (it has since, well, forever), however, i believe va itself goes blue again. romney has managed what most people long thought to be an impossibility, unless you're david duke: he's alienated an entire demographic, african americans. this will be the difference for obama in va. he'll take it, by a point or two.

    if we're real lucky, obnoxious frat boy allen finally gets consigned to the dustbin of history as well, and kaine wins. while kaine doesn't thrill me, he's exponentially better than allen.

    Parent

    ugh, george allen. he's got to go! (none / 0) (#15)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:18:15 AM EST


    Parent
    New Hampshire (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by robrecht on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:39:03 AM EST
    I wouldn't give up on New Hampshire. I hear Jedd Bartlett is doing a lot of campaigning there.

    Opening line (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:59:00 AM EST
    of a Washington Post editorial this morning:

    THROUGH ALL the flip-flops, there has been one consistency in the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney: a contempt for the electorate.

    My worst case scenario for Tuesday:
    Obama wins 294-244

    Best case and expected scenario:
    Obama wins 332-206

    Lately, when the anxiety of those (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by Anne on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:25:13 AM EST
    around me starts to make me think I'm being too calm about this, I take a deep breath and go read Nate Silver, who always manages to make sense of what really should be more obvious.

    For example, referring to the fact that Obama's leading in 19 of the 22 polls from Friday (bold is mine):

    Although the fact that Mr. Obama held the lead in so many polls is partly coincidental -- there weren't any polls of North Carolina on Friday, for instance, which is Mr. Romney's strongest battleground state -- they nevertheless represent powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a "tossup." A tossup race isn't likely to produce 19 leads for one candidate and one for the other -- any more than a fair coin is likely to come up heads 19 times and tails just once in 20 tosses. (The probability of a fair coin doing so is about 1 chance in 50,000.)

    I also like his discussion on "margin of error," wherein he explains that:

    The margin of error is much reduced, however, when you aggregate different polls together, since that creates a much larger sample size. In Ohio, for example, there have been 17,615 interviews of likely voters in polls conducted there within the past 10 days. That yields a margin of error, in measuring the difference between the candidates, of about 1.5 percentage point -- smaller than Mr. Obama's current lead in the polling average there.

    In other words, Mr. Obama's current lead in Ohio almost certainly does not reflect random sampling error alone. The same is true in states like Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin and others that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes.

    Reading Nate, aside from putting a lot of gobbledygook in perspective, makes me see the sheer folly of the way the media tosses around the numbers - just one more thing it's probably better not to take from them at face value.

    Parent

    Re: margin of error (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by lilburro on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:36:22 AM EST
    I don't always read Nate thoroughly and had missed that reassuring point.

    Another reassuring thing I saw this morning, considering that the GOP argument now is that state polls are skewed, was a tweet from PPP.  They write that "our final Ohio poll in 2010 which called both Republican wins on the margin was D+6 party id."  That coupled with the analysis that Obama still holds strong in Ohio even if you half the party ID advantage, make me feel better.  For now.

    Parent

    most of those media number tossers, (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by cpinva on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:58:44 AM EST
    are tossers themselves.

    Reading Nate, aside from putting a lot of gobbledygook in perspective, makes me see the sheer folly of the way the media tosses around the numbers - just one more thing it's probably better not to take from them at face value.

    a. they have no idea what they're talking about (for the most part), when discussing the polls.

    and,

    b. they have a vested financial interest in it being a "toss-up": cash money rides on it, ratings and the ad dollars those bring.

    this hasn't been anywhere close to a toss-up, since the republicans presented us with their odious collection of misanthropes, masquerading as candidates, in their primary. in a class of misanthropes, being the winner makes you no less of an odious misanthrope to the general public.

    Parent

    Anything being possible keeps (none / 0) (#13)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:00:52 AM EST
    Them glued to you.

    Parent
    So you are feeling good about Florida? (none / 0) (#11)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:51:22 AM EST
    I would love for him to take Florida too!

    Parent
    Your math (none / 0) (#16)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:20:38 AM EST
    is excellent :)

    Parent
    Florida has problems (none / 0) (#17)
    by Coral on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:42:56 AM EST
    Probably the most successful voter suppression effort by GOP local officials (and governor). If he wins Florida, he'll win the election by a landslide.

    The early-voting lines in FL are outrageous.

    Parent

    When the polls closed last night (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:36:54 AM EST
    at 7:00, everyone in line at 7:00 was permitted to vote.

    The last vote was cast in Miami at 1:00am.

    Sure to raise a bit of a stink. Lawsuits are flying in Florida right now to open the polls today (obviously way to late to pull that off) but Miami has opened it's main election office from 1:00 to 5:00 today permitting people to vote. And again people in line at 5:00 will be allowed to vote.

    Should I expect another Brooks Brothers protest trying to shut voting down?

    Parent

    In FL, may voters opt to permanently (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by oculus on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:07:53 PM EST
    vote by mail even if not absent?

    Parent
    Yup - lots of us use (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:10:02 PM EST
    absentee ballots as a mail-in ballot option. You don't have to prove you will be absent. I mailed mine 3 weeks ago.

    Parent
    sorry, I see you said 'permanently' (none / 0) (#53)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:11:06 PM EST
    Then the answer is no. You have to apply for the absentee ballot every election.

    Parent
    Ah. In CA you can sign up for this (none / 0) (#59)
    by oculus on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:17:17 PM EST
    option for future elections too.  

    Parent
    Fox News this morning - hilarious! (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:47:09 AM EST
    Four white republican dudes on the Sunday News 'roundtable' with Chris Wallace (fair and balanced!) - all trying with straight faces to spin the data away (albeit lethargically) and project a Romney win.  hahahahahaha.

    Those with anxiety: GOTV! (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by DFLer on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:07:29 AM EST
    GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV.

    Contact your local Dem party office, or candidate's office. Everyone is looking for volunteers....for example: maybe giving someone a ride to the polls.

    GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV.

    Canvassing after the Broncos game. (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by magster on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:50:42 AM EST
    Wish I had a "Bronco Bama" t-shirt. It kind of makes him sound like a gunslinging western sheriff from old movies. Might appeal more to people in Douglas County, CO.

    Parent
    I agree that most voters will vote for Obama (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:50:52 AM EST
    including in my swing state.*

    But whether their votes will be counted, I dunno.  It's not looking good.

    That's the difference between pre-election polls and election day at the polls:  Voter suppression, voter intimidation, dirty tricks galore, and more -- all of which are factors in my swing state, and none of which appears to be factored into these maps and predictions by pollsters and pundits.

    I predict that there will be lots of work for lawyers.

    *My morning paper defines a swing state as a place where we can't swing a cat without hitting a candidate.  

    Obama, Romney, their wives, their veep choices -- all are screwing up traffic at the airport and in the streets on a daily basis as well as filling the airwaves and clogging the phone lines.

    I awoke this morning with the happy thought that, after tomorrow, they'll all go home, and cats will be safe again from being weapons swung at candidates, and we'll be back to wondering why the prez wears such uncomfortable footwear and can't find us on any map and cares f*ck-all about our economic disaster in this state.

    My sentiments exactly. (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by lentinel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:00:48 AM EST
    I awoke this morning with the happy thought that, after tomorrow, they'll all go home, and cats will be safe again from being weapons swung at candidates, and we'll be back to wondering why the prez wears such uncomfortable footwear and can't find us on any map and cares f*ck-all about our economic disaster in this state.

    After all of the media-inspired hallucinogens have evaporated, it will be time for a coffee.

    Parent

    Do you also agree that (none / 0) (#20)
    by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:08:34 AM EST
    there will be lots of work for lawyers?

    The level of suppression, intimidation, dirty tricks, etc., here is beyond ever before -- and nothing will be done about it by the state, as it's in the favor of the governor's and AG's party.  We had heard of promise of a DoJ presence, but that word was weeks ago, with nothing since to suggest that they will be here and in sufficient numbers to be everywhere that they will be needed, from what I see in the offing.

    Parent

    I honestly (none / 0) (#22)
    by lentinel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:37:51 AM EST
    wouldn't know about the lawyers.

    It would depend, I suppose, on who is declared the winner, and the margin of victory.

    It seems as if we hear about fraud every now and then, something about Diebold now and then, intimidation every now and then, and then nothing until the next election season rolls around.

    If there is no paper trail, I don't know what can be done about anything.

    I did read that Florida's ballot this year is no less confusing that the one they put forth in the infamous election of 2000.

    I would just like this to be over so we can get back to what you said we need to get back to. Along with dealing with the obvious reality of global warming, the need to reconstruct our cities, the war in Afghanistan, the economy, joblessness, and the off-again on-again threats of war with Iran, North Korea and an enemy du jour to be announced.

    Once we are rid of the "Romney is worse" factor, we can begin to concentrate once again on what is happening to us in our daily lives and try to unite to do something about it.

    Parent

    The ballot in Miami (none / 0) (#28)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:58:07 AM EST
    wasn't confusing at all.

    Long at 5 pages both sides, but not confusing. And quite simple at only one page if you didn't bother looking at constitutional amendments or county initiatives.

    Parent

    I'm (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by lentinel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:13:23 AM EST
    glad to learn that the ballot in Miami is more straightforward this time - at least if one is determined to just vote for various candidates for public office.

    However, what seems to be the case is that the long ballot will lead to very long lines. They are estimating that it will take up to 12 minutes per person to vote if one is to seriously consider the eleven amendments to the Florida Constitution which I read are complicated - yet important.

    This could lead to some people not voting at all.

    But, whatever happens, it will be over by the 7th, hopefully, and we can get back to the reality that confronts our nation - with respect to global warming, wars, joblessness, homelessness and the erosion of civil liberties and human rights - among other ongoing problems.

    Parent

    The lines (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:20:05 AM EST
    are indeed very long with the last voter in Miami last night waiting 6 hours and finishing at 1am.

    Here is a photo of a Miami voting line yesterday

    Parent

    That's horrible and wonderful at the same time... (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by magster on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:41:43 AM EST
    ... voters who Scott thought would be too lazy to exercise their right to vote sticking it out 6 hours past closing.

    "My feet are tired, but my soul is rested." still applies. I so hope Florida is blue....

    Parent

    But (none / 0) (#82)
    by lentinel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 03:15:23 PM EST
    don't you think it is a travesty that voting could be made to be so difficult in our country?

    Parent
    Of course it is a travesty. (5.00 / 3) (#83)
    by caseyOR on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 03:26:03 PM EST
    I think you would be hard pressed to find a commenter here at TL who thought all these voter suppression acts were good for the country.

    Admiring the grit and determination of voters who, despite the best efforts of the vote suppressors, stayed in line for hours to make sure they could cast a ballot, is not an endorsement of the suppression that put them in those long lines in the first place.

    That this is happening in the United States is beyond shameful. And after this election I would hope that the American people would rise up against those who would deny them the vote and run them out of office and well, out of town. Maybe on a rail.

    Parent

    Faint hope. (none / 0) (#88)
    by lentinel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:58:23 PM EST
    And after this election I would hope that the American people would rise up against those who would deny them the vote and run them out of office and well, out of town. Maybe on a rail.

    I would hope so too.
    But I don't think it will happen;
    People are defeated. 2000 was the turning point. A coup d'état. And there have been no consequences. No rising up. Just laying down and taking it. And I think that the Obama presidency, cemented that sense of hopelessness. No new beginning. Just a gradual awakening to the facts of life in the new America.

    We're all reduced to hoping that Romney goes down. And then what are we going to do after we wake up from the binge of gleefully pointing out the pointy heads of the Republican candidates?

    We will have a lot of work to do.

    Parent

    as to votes being counted, voters getting a fair (5.00 / 2) (#81)
    by DFLer on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 02:37:35 PM EST
    shake etc.: It's important to sign up for election judge duties. I realize it's too late for this year, but it's one way to help. It's a long day....but it is a chance to help things go the right way. Of course systems vary from state to state....but....

    Parent
    Hope so, but... (5.00 / 3) (#23)
    by Dadler on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:39:14 AM EST
    ...we still have a TON of electronic voting equipment that is so easily hackable it's almost a joke.  Someone is going to try to hack an election in a major way at some point, and with as little play as this issue is getting this election, well, we'll see.

    what states do you think it is hackable in? (none / 0) (#80)
    by DFLer on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 02:34:22 PM EST
    not hackable in MN system.

    Parent
    What happened in FL yesterday makes me nervous (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by magster on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:55:51 AM EST
    A well placed suspicious package can disenfranchise hundreds very quickly.

    Miami-Dade is allowing (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:16:37 AM EST
    voters to request and cast absentee ballots in person Sunday

    The office will now open between 1 p.m. and 5 p.m. to also allow voters who had not requested an absentee ballot to do so in person, and turn them in. Anyone still in line by 5 p.m will be allowed to cast their ballot. The office is located at 2700 NW 87th Ave., Doral.
    Pinella and Hillsborough too (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:18:29 AM EST
    here

    Parent
    And also one site (none / 0) (#36)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:21:43 AM EST
    in Orange County

    Parent
    Palm Beach County (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:27:33 AM EST
    is following Miami's lead and they will now allow in person absentee voting both today and tomorrow

    WEST PALM BEACH -- The Palm Beach Supervisor of Elections main office will open their office Sunday and Monday for absentee voting in spite of a pending law suit.

    Only the main elections office will be open from 9am - 5pm which is located at 240 S Military Trail.



    Parent
    Nate Silver has made The Onion! (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Angel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:36:19 AM EST
    http://tinyurl.com/NateSilverMakesTheOnion

    BTD just posted his Sunday Kos article.... (5.00 / 3) (#57)
    by magster on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:16:06 PM EST
    ... For any of those here who are "Obama sucks because he is not progressive enough" so I'm not voting for him, please read.

    with the caveat, of course, (none / 0) (#65)
    by dk on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:53:33 PM EST
    that his argument only applies to voters in swing states.

    Parent
    I disagree. Obama needs to win the popular vote (5.00 / 1) (#66)
    by Angel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:57:51 PM EST
    so the GOP can't start Obama's second term off with that "no mandate" BS.  It does matter.

    Parent
    I ask you, did W need to win the (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by oculus on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:00:32 PM EST
    popular vote to claim a mandate?  We don't need no f#cking popular vote.  

    Parent
    Exactly. And Obama did not even claim (5.00 / 2) (#69)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:02:37 PM EST
    a sweeping mandate when he HAD the popular vote.

    Parent
    Yah, popular vote doesn't matter. (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by dk on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:02:58 PM EST
    And, even it did, I'd prefer it not be argued that there is a mandate for the Grand Bargain that will be occurring once Obama is re-elected.

    Parent
    I'm guess I'm just not as cynical as you. (none / 0) (#71)
    by Angel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:06:06 PM EST


    Parent
    I'd use the words "reality based," (none / 0) (#72)
    by dk on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:08:15 PM EST
    but it does we seem to have a difference of opinion.  :)

    Parent
    Depends on your reality. ;)/ (none / 0) (#73)
    by Angel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:13:00 PM EST


    Parent
    What size lead in the popular vote (none / 0) (#75)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:37:22 PM EST
    do you think would prevent them from making that argument? They will do it anyway. I just don't dwell on the popular vote in the current environment.

    Parent
    Considering that nowadays... (none / 0) (#86)
    by unitron on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:44:11 PM EST
    ...all the right wing is practicing a willing suspension of sanity, I'd say if Obama beats The Romney with the same numbers/percentages that were called landslides for Reagan they'll say it was just a handful of votes away from being a tie and mumble and grumble a lot about voter fraud.

    Parent
    My numbers (none / 0) (#1)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:29:12 AM EST
    Keep coming out the same way.  Like a pessimist I keep running scenarios where Romney wins and none of them are plausible.  That scares me for some reason.  Maybe just nerves.

    That sounds like the legitimate fear of (5.00 / 2) (#87)
    by shoephone on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:42:16 PM EST
    GOP voter suppression tactics and other ugliness towards corrupting the result. IMO, the only way Romney wins is by stealing it. And there is no doubt he and the GOP are going to try it.

    Parent
    Aggregators (none / 0) (#7)
    by koshembos on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:29:15 AM EST
    Four pool aggregators, Simon Jackman, Nate Silver, Sam Wang and Drew Linzer predict Obama win in excess of 300 EV. (Jackman is currently at 277 with Virginia as a high likelihood.)

    These guys have the statistical knowledge to construct models with excellent track record.

    Why are we trying to guess?

    Aggregate Heaven (or hell) (none / 0) (#26)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:53:11 AM EST
    an aggregate of the poll aggregators.

    (Obama listed first and tossups if applicable last)

    Using:
    Cab Political 303-235
    Cook Political 253-191-94
    Electoral-Vote 281-206-51
    Nate Silver 307-231
    Princeton Consortium 319-219
    RCP 290-248
    Simon Jackman 277-206-55
    Votamatic 332-206

    Aggregate of EV vote leaving tossups as tossups (for those aggregators with no balls)

    Obama wins 295.25-217.75 with 25 tossups

    With Obama losing all the tossups
    Obama wins 295.25-242.75

    Splitting the tossups
    Obama wins 307.75-230.25

    With Obama winning all the tossups
    Obama wins 320.25-217.75

    Parent

    That's why I like Jeralyn's maps... (none / 0) (#29)
    by magster on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:00:47 AM EST
    ... they are as pessimistic as the realistic scenarios could be, and Obama still wins.

    The firewall during Obama's post-Denver debate poll plummet discussions said, OH, WI and one of IA, NV or CO.

    IA is too pessimistic on Jeralyn's maps. From what I've read, Romney has all but given up there based on how early voting has gone, and I haven't seen Romney leading in any poll for a while. In many polls, including the "Iowa poll-goddess" Ann Selzer's poll last night that had O + 6.

    Parent

    Selzer's Iowa Poll (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:55:27 AM EST
    has O+5 47 to 42.

    President Barack Obama does best with union households (31 points better than Mitt Romney), unmarried voters (up 28 points), younger voters (up 17), those with no more than a high school education (up 16), seniors (up 12), in the 1st Congressional District in northeast Iowa (up 12) and with women (up 11 points).

    Obama, a Democrat, also does well with Iowans who did not participate in the 2010 election, winning 53 percent to 31 percent among this group.

    Romney, a Republican, does best with evangelicals (26 points better than Obama), voters in Iowa's 4th Congressional District in northwest Iowa (up 19 points), married moms (up 18), affluent voters (up 17), married voters (up 10), middle-age voters (up 9), people with minor children (up 5), and with men (up 3).



    Parent
    O + 5, O + 6, it's all the same within the (none / 0) (#49)
    by magster on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:03:06 PM EST
    margin of error. Just call me Wolf Blitzer.

    Parent
    Just doublechecking myself.... (none / 0) (#30)
    by magster on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:05:22 AM EST
    ... the last lead Romney had in Iowa was + 1 in a PPP poll on October 19.  PPP has it O + 5 as of Halloween, so that's a big surge for O.

    Parent
    Obama is up by comfortable margins (none / 0) (#33)
    by Angel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:17:42 AM EST
    in IA, MI, OH, PA, VA and WI. This is Obama's win unless there is something extraordinarily wrong with the state polls.

    I'm more pessimistic about FL (none / 0) (#39)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:37:35 AM EST
    now...Obama down 1.2 in the aggregate poll, plus the voting shenanigans. The Romney ads here have been relentless.  

    The fact that they are gasping and sweating (none / 0) (#41)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:43:50 AM EST
    Gives my heart wings.  Sorry for you guys though having to survive being terrorized by domestic terrorists.  You should all ink a finger and take a group photo, even though they threatened your life you voted :)

    Parent
    Plus the fact that Mitt feels the need to come (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:49:55 AM EST
    to FL tomorrow - it is a good sign for the national result since I think it means he knows he has lost Ohio and pretty much has to win FL instead.

    Might also be a good sign for FL if he thinks it is not already in the bag.

    I guess I should not give up hope in my neighbors!

    Parent

    One friend tried to get in today (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:45:14 PM EST
    To see Obama someplace near Hollywood FL.  She said the line to get at 10:30 was a mile long.  Obama not set to speak until 12:30.  She had to wimp out.  She didn't have standing in a mile long line in her.

    Parent
    That was actually (none / 0) (#78)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 02:21:50 PM EST
    a gates open as 12:30. It usually takes a couple hours to get everyone passed security. I think he was scheduled for 2:40.

    Parent
    She said the line was a mile long already at 10:30 (none / 0) (#79)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 02:29:46 PM EST
    Two to Four hours of standing before game time is a bit much for some people.  I guess the lesson is to take a lawn chair and a book, but would you have to forfeit your folded lawn chair to get past security and get in?

    Parent
    By this reasoning, is this why (none / 0) (#43)
    by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:53:55 AM EST
    Obama is coming to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Iforgetwhereelse tomorrow?  It's not in the bag, and he needs states with as few as six Electoral College votes?  If so: Oh oh.

    Parent
    Nope...those are his 'nice to have' states (none / 0) (#45)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:57:55 AM EST
    He has his 'must haves' of PA, OH, and probably VA in the bag.

    Parent
    I know you know enough to take my (none / 0) (#48)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:01:51 PM EST
    tea leave reading with a huge grain of salt!

    Parent
    I just read that the Wisconsin State Journal (none / 0) (#47)
    by Angel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:59:43 AM EST
    endorsed Romney.  How much influence does that paper have?

    Parent
    Nada. (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:16:19 PM EST
    It's in Madison.  And newspaper endorsements have negligible impact, anyway, per many studies.  And the Madison papers are not even printed daily, anymore.

    Btw, the major media monopoly and newspaper in the state decided to not even do endorsements anymore, so it announced this week.  It would have endorsed Romney, and it would be nice if the decision to no longer do endorsements was based on the embarrassment of its repeatedly endorsing Republicans for the presidency who then do not win Wisconsin, i.e., evidence that its pontificating editorial endorsements have no impact on real people.  (Biased reporting does.)

    But the decision really is due to the embarrassment of the major media monopoly repeatedly endorsing Walker with the most awkward editorials ever I've read, with hedging about all of his awful acts, legal defense fund, etc., and followed by editorials denouncing even more awful acts and exposes about their awful effects, etc.

    Parent

    Thanks for the response. Reminds me of the (5.00 / 2) (#61)
    by Angel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:29:22 PM EST
    ridiculous endorsement yesterday by Ross Douthat in the NYTimes.  He's being excoriated in the comments section.  You should read it.

    Parent
    Where else would you like him to go? (none / 0) (#60)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:21:02 PM EST
    Today he's in:
    Concord, NH
    Fort Lauderdale, FL
    Aurora, CO
    Cincinatti, OH

    and Biden today is Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

    I haven't seen the Monday schedule but I'd guess Iowa, Wisconsin and maybe Ohio again because as was said weeks ago, a win in those three states guarantees a victory. What else is left to visit?

    Parent

    It's not the states as much as (none / 0) (#64)
    by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:52:35 PM EST
    where in the states, I guess.  (Btw, Silver's predictions of which states will be significant have dropped Wisconsin, in second place recently, way down the list.

    But Madison?  Why, if the purpose is to win votes?  It could not get bluer, and the turnout of college students could not get higher in Wisconsin, and especially in Madison (but for the voter-suppression laws and the like, and it's too late for him to get Holder to do something).

    If it's just for optics in a pretty city, fine -- but the optics also will remind more than a few of us that those comfy shoes could not be found to come to Madison when we needed him, not when he needed us. . . .

    And far more swingy in that swing state are other cities that he needs.  He has been to Madison just recently and to Green Bay and Milwaukee, too.  But also crucial are La Crosse and Eau Claire, for example.  And they have very pretty vistas, too.

    So, we'll see what the Wisconsin electoral map brings on Tuesday, and whether those cities that have become increasingly important in recent years -- to offset the incredible growth (in population and and corruption) of Waukesha county -- will bring the turnout needed without him.

    Parent

    That's a legitimate argument (none / 0) (#77)
    by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 02:19:56 PM EST
    All I can tell you is why they choose those type spots late in the game. It's also why they were in Broward County, FL today. (which along with Palm Beach County is the bluest of Florida's blue).

    The argument I saw was this... it's far more effective as you get closer to the election to convince the average Dem to be sure to vote than to win over late swing or undecided voters. It becomes a GOTV as opposed to changing opinion.

    Whether that is true statistically I don't know.

    Parent

    Makes logical sense to me (none / 0) (#84)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:20:10 PM EST
    I keep hearing FL is all about GOTV at this point.

    Parent
    It's an expression, people (none / 0) (#46)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:59:36 AM EST
    The latest sign of desperation.

    Revenge is a dish best served.... (5.00 / 4) (#67)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:59:10 PM EST
    by the 47%.

    I do know that much.

    Parent

    Ryan: (none / 0) (#50)
    by oculus on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:03:43 PM EST
    "We don't believe in revenge, we believe in change, in hope. We actually do!" he said.

    Funny.  

    Parent

    Besides, as any Romney can tell you, (5.00 / 2) (#55)
    by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:12:28 PM EST
    Living well is the best revenge.

    Parent
    One is in Russia scarfing up investors. (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by oculus on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:16:01 PM EST
    What about our greatest geopolitical challenge?

    Parent
    Ha ha ha ha ha ha! (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:50:19 PM EST
    Uhhhh Mr. Ryan, some of us people with ladyparts out here who have been raped before, we might feel very differently about this revenge thing :)  We do hope that you change, but we aren't holding our breath.....nor our revenge : )

    Parent
    andgarden, please check in! (none / 0) (#54)
    by oculus on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 12:11:32 PM EST


    NYT "The Caucus" on Ryan's (none / 0) (#76)
    by oculus on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:47:21 PM EST
    effect on the race in WI:  link

    As of today I am predicting O-270, R-268 (none / 0) (#89)
    by Angel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:48:17 PM EST


    Changing my prediction: O-274, R-264 (none / 0) (#90)
    by Angel on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:24:25 PM EST
    I changed New Hampshire to Obama.

    Sunday Electoral Maps | 90 comments (90 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment