Obama Up in Iowa, Ohio; Returns to Colorado Tonight

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:20:26 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney (all tags)

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Update: Final national poll before election day: WSJ/NBC poll has Obama 48, Romney 47. Here is the actual poll. Voters with a "very positive" view of Obama: 40%. For Romney, only 25%. Who is better prepared to lead the country? Obama 46%, Mitt 42%. I'm not sure how representative the sample is. 37% identified themselves as conservative, to 25% who identified as liberal. 23% are retired, only 4% are unemployed because they can't find a job, 48% have college/post-college/law degrees and 26% earn more than $100k per year.

A new Des Moines Register poll shows President Obama up 5 points. [More...]

A new Pew Research poll has Obama up 50% to 47%. In the 9 battleground states, Obama is up 49% to 47% for Romney.

President Obama will be in Aurora, Colorado tonight (Community College of Aurora's Lowry campus.) Also on hand: Dave Matthews, who will perform acoustically.

Mitt Romney drew a crowd of 17,000 in Englewood, CO last night (Arapahoe County).

The polls here are tied. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Obama ahead in Ohio, but tied with Romney in Colorado, Florida and Virginia.

In Ohio, Obama gains:

Obama had 48 percent compared to Romney's 44 percent. On Saturday, Obama was ahead in Ohio by a point in the same poll.

< Obama: It's All Up to You, Who Do You Trust More? | Mitt Romney Lectures Radio Host on Mormonism and Abortion >

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Obama Up in Iowa, Ohio; Returns to Colorado Tonight | 24 comments (24 topical)

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Interesting story on how (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by ruffian on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:36:25 PM EST

the fights GOP governors in Ohio and Wisconsin picked with unions are coming back to hurt Romney. . Might this explain the parts of the polling that seem to not look right to people in those states? I have seen elsewhere that Obama is out-performing his 2008 numbers with working class white voters. I have to think that the union battles and the auto bailout explain it, and could very well make the difference in the election.

So even though the Wisconsin recall did not recall Walker, I think that sit-in and recall attempt were ultimately very influential. Latest polls look good for Obama in WI - hope there is an effect for Tammy Duckworth and WI state Dem office holders too. They deserve it.

Um, a poll of union households (5.00 / 2) (#4)
by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:17:47 PM EST

in Wisconsin, comparing it to previous polls, is apples and oranges. Union membership has dropped precipitously, owing to impact of Walker's Act 10.

I wish that there were data from other than AFSCME to test the white, working-class vote. It is difficult to reconcile these data with pollsters' findings that Obama's drop in Wisconsin -- from the actual vote in 2008 to some polls in 2012 -- is greater than in any state, isn't it? And the auto bailout did not resurrect the industry there; a lot of loss in population to other states is the result, labor votes lost.

Tuesday will tell. And then Wisconsin again will not matter, and the man who has been there almost a dozen times in recent weeks will not be seen again, nor will labor have a better outlook. The time to do something about that was a year ago.


A year ago... (none / 0) (#10)
by Rojas on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:02:04 PM EST

Or a decade and a half ago?
Bring Delphi back from Mexico or Magnaquench from China?
A miracle worker, lady parts or not, couldn't help all those folks already sold down the river.


: Huh? (none / 0) (#12)
by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:10:00 PM EST

Lady parts do not require comfy shoes.

AFSCME membership includes many (none / 0) (#14)
by DFLer on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:13:39 PM EST

"white, working-class" folks. While not an industrial union, nonetheless membership includes maintenance workers, janitors, secretaries, truck drivers, street cleaners, snow-plowers...etc. and not just teachers, government supervisors and the like.


Yes. Apparently you do not understand (none / 0) (#15)
by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:25:16 PM EST

Walker's Act 10.

I rather think that I do, as I live with it daily.

It covers all public-sector employees.


I was responding to this part (none / 0) (#16)
by DFLer on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:35:54 PM EST

I wish that there were data from other than AFSCME to test the white, working-class vote.


: Ah. I'm still not sure that I see (none / 0) (#17)
by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:10:01 PM EST

why my saying that suggests what you see -- AFSCME is not the same as AFT, for example -- but . . . bygones. The basic problem in the news release has not enough information to figure out whether it is a worthy sign of good things, knowing what I know. It's interesting and sad in that some such lacking info is exactly the sort that used to be trumpeted by the state AFSCME.
But then, who's still there to write the news releases? I know a lot of unemployed former labor organizers now in Walker's Wisconsin, as well as a lot of former union members. With Walker's hits to take-home pay, too, they don't see the sense giving up another 1 percent of their pay for union dues. Walker -- aka ALEC -- won, with a long-term impact that will take decades to turn around, if ever.

I guess that "Jeeps to be mfg. in China" (none / 0) (#2)
by oculus on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:59:22 PM EST

meme backfired big time.


Wrong Tammy. (none / 0) (#3)
by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:10:10 PM EST

Duckworth is in Illinois.

(It's Baldwin.)


: Arrrrgh...sorry! (none / 0) (#24)
by ruffian on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:33:35 AM EST

Thanks for the correction.

Nate has dropped Wisconsin (none / 0) (#8)
by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:57:26 PM EST

from his list of competitive states tonight. He now has Obama at 95% to win Wisconsin.


: Does that mean it's safe tomorrow (none / 0) (#11)
by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:09:00 PM EST

to answer my phone and my door?
Guess not.
I'm humming, from Les Miserables, "One Day More"!

Just on the local news... (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:43:19 PM EST

the line to get into see Bronco Bama in Aurora is over a mile long and he doesn't get here for 5 more hours.

Anyone that you know who hasn't voted (5.00 / 6) (#7)
by christinep on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:53:41 PM EST

Get 'em out to vote on Tuesday. It is sort of a block by block, friend to friend thing now....

Worries about Ohio's machinery aside, it is looking better. Everywhere. Keep focused, working. We've got to bring this one home.


: All my friends know... (5.00 / 6) (#21)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:10:53 PM EST

that all I want for my birthday is for them to vote.

Are you in line? (none / 0) (#9)
by fishcamp on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:00:19 PM EST

The newspapers (none / 0) (#13)
by Coral Gables on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:12:02 PM EST

in Broward County today estimates the Obama crowd at between 23-25 thousand at an outdoor high school football stadium. He'll be at the 13,000 Cincinnati Bearcats arena prior to getting to Colorado. What is the venue in Denver?


: Community College of Aurora's Lowry campus. (none / 0) (#18)
by Jeralyn on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:11:56 PM EST

mile hi, where did (none / 0) (#19)
by Jeralyn on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:25:33 PM EST

you see it. I can't find any local news on it, they are all covering Ryan (live no less.)


: It was on Channel 4 news (none / 0) (#20)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:10:00 PM EST

after the late afternoon football game. They did a live shot with Shaun Boyd (I think).

: Here you go... (none / 0) (#22)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:16:32 PM EST

Obama visit

WSJ/NBC poll's education and income levels (none / 0) (#5)
by Towanda on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:22:07 PM EST

certainly do not look like some swing states! Good catch on those factors, at least, in the sampling.

Hosting an election night party? (none / 0) (#23)
by caseyOR on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:14:06 PM EST

Here is some good advice, in cartoon form, for how to make it a hit.

h/t Digby