537 Votes Gave Us Bush: Let's Not Get Fooled Again

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 08:40:00 AM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney (all tags)

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“Five hundred and thirty seven. The number of votes that changed the course of American history … If you’re thinking that your vote doesn’t count, that it won’t matter. Well, back then, there were probably at least 537 people who felt the same way.”

We get the Government we elect. Don't forget to vote. [More...]

Here is the latest Qunnipiac poll, conducted Oct. 23 to Oct. 28 (with the NY Times and CBS News) in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Obama is holding his own, barely.

Here is the latest NY Times/CBS News poll: Obama leads 48% to 47%.

The poll found that Mr. Obama is supported by 52 percent of women and 44 percent of men, while Mr. Romney is preferred by 51 percent of men and 44 percent of women.

... 67 percent saying that Mr. Romney would very closely or somewhat closely follow the policies of former President George W. Bush.

The last thing the nation needs is another GW Bush.

Please don't take anything for granted. These these last days are critical. Don't let up on your friends, relatives and co-workers. While the election is said to come down to 7 states, Romney is now trying to create more swing states, focusing on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota. He's got money to burn, and his last minute ads, claiming he's a moderate, will deluge the airwaves. There may be very few undecided votes left, but these last-minute efforts could inspire greater turnout among his supporters. It's all about turnout now, and the Electoral College count.

Remember 2000, let's not get fooled again.

< Bill Clinton Holds 2 Colorado Events Today for Obama | Wednesday Afternoon Open Thread >

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537 Votes Gave Us Bush: Let's Not Get Fooled Again | 83 comments (83 topical)

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NYT/CBS/Q poll (5.00 / 3) (#1)
by CoralGables on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 07:47:30 AM EST

released this morning:

Ohio Obama +5
Florida Obama +1
Virginia Obama +2

If anyone wants to dig into crosstabs,
they are here

It's pretty obvious why Romney is throwing money at Pennsylvania and Minnesota. He's finding himself in an electoral nightmare in the states where he's been campaigning. A reverse momentum if you will.

For PR purposes the Romney campaign is referring to it as "Expanding the Map". What it is in reality is "Grasping at Straws".

PPP (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by CoralGables on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 08:02:18 AM EST

Iowa Obama +5
Wisconsin Obama +5

Is Dandy Don Meredith warming up his voice to sing a solo to Mitt?


Obama being a leader on Sandy... (5.00 / 4) (#6)
by magster on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 08:54:47 AM EST

... is probably helping in FL. I imagine showing an ability to lead during a hurricane would be a plus there.


An analysis of why Wisconsin (none / 0) (#18)
by Towanda on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:19:28 AM EST

differs from other battlegrounds, from this morning's Milwaukee paper, here.

The factor that may be the focus is turnout; will Walker's and Priebus's voter-suppression tactics allow three-fourths of eligible voters to again cast ballots? And especially the factor of its historically high youth vote -- until the recall election, that is, when the voter-suppression tactics targeted at them worked well for Walker. As a practice run by ALEC, et al., for this fall, it ought to be reason for worry about Wisconsin.

So, Obama suddenly is returning to the state tomorrow, before Romney returns again, too. What their internals show, it would be nice to know.


And the big guns: the Big Dawg (none / 0) (#20)
by Towanda on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:27:53 AM EST

Bill Clinton is extending his stay in Wisconsin, not only heading to the northern, sometimes-blue outpost of Eau Claire today but also heading into the reddest of red counties tomorrow: Waukesha.

I know all seventeen Dems in Waukesha County, where the local Dem party is famed for decades for running ads in the local paper, begging for anyone to volunteer to be on the ballot/led to slaughter.

This could be fun. I don't recall that Bill Clinton dared go there even when he was president. As for Obama, he no doubt knows that African Americans still get stopped and arrested there just for driving there -- or, in one case, even just for goin' fishin' there.


My wife's family is from the Fox Valley area (none / 0) (#22)
by Farmboy on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:44:14 AM EST

and I've found driving from town to town there to be like a political checkerboard. Early this summer I'd see fields of "stand with Walker" signs then ten minutes later it was all Barrett.

What blows my mind are the "Farmers for Obama" signs along I-94. Obviously Wisconsin farmers know to which side of their bread the butter is applied.


: Yes, those are the Obama-Walker voters (none / 0) (#24)
by Towanda on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 11:06:47 AM EST

(the subject of an analysis a week or so ago in the JSOnline). In the Fox Valley home of Joe McCarthy, where his memory still is venerated, those are the voters who blow my mind and make me blow my top.
I'm just hiding out in my blue city, waiting out the end of the ads and phone calls, and planning on doubling the blood-pressure pills next week to be able to watch what those weird Wisconsin voters do.

Before Dandy Don (none / 0) (#31)
by MKS on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 11:44:22 AM EST

was giving grief to Howard Cosell, Pops and I were watching him live in the Ice Bowl.

And, the answer is, no, it is not time to sing yet. More work to be done.


: Work is never done... (none / 0) (#66)
by easilydistracted on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 03:15:47 PM EST

One only runs out of time.

And another.... (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by magster on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:18:56 AM EST

O + 2 in Florida according to Mellman poll released today.


... and another! (5.00 / 0) (#33)
by magster on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 11:56:05 AM EST

PPP also says O + 5 in Ohio.


... and another! (none / 0) (#52)
by magster on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 01:27:18 PM EST

O + 8 in Wisconsin.

Remember, OH plus WI and NV = 270, even if CO, IA, FL, VA, NC and NH are red.


I think that's too wide a margin in Wisconsin (5.00 / 1) (#68)
by Towanda on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 03:27:50 PM EST

but what's important is the trend, in terms of the same pollsters and what they're seeing. Whew.

Still, what is the WH seeing, and what are the internals saying, that they rushed Biden to Wisconsin for the last few days, and they rushed Bill Clinton to Wisconsin today and now are extending his stay by another day, and even are rushing Obama here to Wisconsin tomorrow? And both Romneys and Ryan and . . . I dunno. I wish that I could stop worrying about the blatant voter-suppression tactics that are rampant in Wisconsin.


What you're seeing is (none / 0) (#70)
by CoralGables on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 04:04:30 PM EST

Ohio is in the Obama basket.

I wouldn't say Obama is "rushing" to Wisconsin tomorrow. He's been off the trail since Saturday, and wasn't Wisconsin part of Monday's cancellation? He's also going to Colorado and Nevada tomorrow. They are just solidifying the 270. No sense leaving anything to chance the last 5 days.


: I Think He Should Stay and Do His Job... (none / 0) (#74)
by ScottW714 on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 04:57:12 PM EST

...if there is one thing pretty much everyone hates, is the GD politicking. Has anyone ever said they haven't seen enough of the candidates.
He has a chance to show he is above all of it and would rather lose while helping folks, then win. Not true, but with the disaster he is getting awesome press without having to be a typical pol. Even Christie is kissing his A. He should be walking arm and arm with Christie letting those undecided see that they are above it when the S hits the fan.
He should just stay in front of the cameras, in this and that city, you know jeans and button shirt. The caring pol. Let Romney run around scared, telling folks why his better while Obama actually helps people who really need it, and all of it on TV.

: Ah, yes, he had cancelled (none / 0) (#77)
by Towanda on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 06:47:55 PM EST

his trip to Green Bay. Still, it would have seemed that he was needed more elsewhere. Well, we'll just have to see, next week, if the schedulers did their job in this crucial week.

: But -- update -- now Obama is coming back (none / 0) (#80)
by Towanda on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 07:27:17 PM EST

to Wisconsin on Saturday, definitely a sudden announcement with no details, other than that it will be an event in Milwaukee.
Bill Clinton extending his stay for more days, Obama coming twice in three days -- and Romney in between, and Ryan for several days . . . I wish I knew why they're worried about Wisconsin.
The only Romney sign in my neighborhood got blown to bits by Superstorm Sandy yesterday. Hahahaha.
But when Wisconsin is hit by a hurricane, with surfing on Lake Michigan on waves topping dozens of feet, anything is possible.

Did they rush them or (none / 0) (#72)
by nycstray on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 04:22:55 PM EST

did they rearrange them because of Sandy?


and another! Nat'l Journal says O +5 (none / 0) (#58)
by magster on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 02:11:42 PM EST

nationally, when tied at the end of last month.


Uh Oh (none / 0) (#11)
by Militarytracy on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:26:54 AM EST

some of us may be owing Wasserman an apology for our smarty comments about her praising of the Florida ground game.


I read something about Obama exceeding (none / 0) (#12)
by magster on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:33:43 AM EST

2008 in Palm Beach county early voting so far. I think FL is almost more likely than CO at this point.


Surprising the heck out of me (none / 0) (#13)
by Militarytracy on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:47:28 AM EST

Pleasantly. Sorry Debbie that I didn't have full faith in your ground game claim.


Palm Beach GOP operative memo (none / 0) (#15)
by CoralGables on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:00:09 AM EST

obtained and displayed by Palm Beach TV station...

"The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling...The Democrat turnout machine in the county has been very effective and they are cleaning our clock."


: I saw that (none / 0) (#17)
by Militarytracy on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:03:28 AM EST

Do you think it's authentic?

Agreed--If Romney (5.00 / 2) (#29)
by MKS on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 11:39:27 AM EST

were truly closing the gap, he would be in Ohio and Colorado all the time. No need to go to Florida or Virigina, since (according to reality-free Romney world) they are in the bag. No need to worry about Pennsylvania and the rest, since securing the victory must come in Ohio first.....

And the new ads lying about the Auto Industry.

And the revival of the lying ad about Welfare Reform.

And buying thousands of dollars of stuff at Walmart, so your charity photo-op about Sandy aid yesterday did not flop.

Romney is desperate and throwing the kitchen sink at it. What a despicable lying, shallow, Nixonesque figure. Worse than W, although both were touted as MBAs, CEOs who are not all that conservative.

And, Ohio will be ours. I love calling those guys. No b.s. there. Went to high school there. More calls, the better.


Fix the flooding and power outages in Ohio (5.00 / 1) (#69)
by Towanda on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 03:30:09 PM EST

from the storm, Mr. Obama, as the problems are in northern Ohio. We really need turnout in northern Ohio.


Looking good (none / 0) (#14)
by lilburro on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:51:35 AM EST

amazing the discrepancies in how this is being reported. By all rights this is momentum in FL but elsewhere I'm seeing it as an erosion of the President's support. Sure, maybe from quite some time ago, but not since the first debate.


Nate still has Florida at 59% chance Romney (none / 0) (#16)
by Militarytracy on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:00:19 AM EST

A few days ago I think he had it at 67% for Romney. I don't think I checked yesterday, attempting to stop being so Nate driven. A Nate sheeple


: Nate has a new article up this morning. (none / 0) (#19)
by Angel on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:27:23 AM EST

Numbers still holding for Obama electorally, 299 - 239 based on state polls. Shows Willard 59% Fla and Obama 77% Ohio.

Handy chart for the (5.00 / 5) (#8)
by magster on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:14:47 AM EST

"I'm disappointed in Obama" crowd here.

Early Voting Way Up in Leon County Florida (5.00 / 1) (#83)
by john horse on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:02:10 PM EST

which I think benefits Obama. Going to be another close election in Florida but I think high turnout benefits the Democrats.

By the way, could the creep that stole my Obama yard sign please return it. Just know this. Besides being a poor reflection of your side, in a close election the bad karma you have created may be just what is needed to tip the election to Obama.

Probably too late for Ads to have an impact (2.25 / 4) (#3)
by Jim in St Louis on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 08:03:24 AM EST

I think the result will be fairly close- but Romney will end up with a decent sized victory. Not 1980 mandate stuff- but substantial. Plus Rs hold the house, and pickup a few in the senate.

2008 Obama voters just are not there this time. He has shed votes from all of his support groups- even blacks are not going to give him 97% support again, it's down to about 93% in the last poll I saw- I guess they are mad about SSM.

He lost much of the extreme left by mis-handling Obamacare- who wanted a single payer, without gaining anything from the center, and it's had a measurable dampening on hiring. They may be quieter about the war on terror, Gitmo, drones etc, but they are not pleased either.

He had a honest argument that he inherited a nasty economic situation- but the electorate has judged his handling of that situation to be amateurish and I think they have had enough. 2010 should have given him a clue to triangulate ala Clinton. Pending unemployment numbers will come in just prior to the election- (guessing 7.8% here) (and I hope they remember CA this time)

He's lost a lot of moderates who thought he was going to be post-racial, (whoopsie) and those voters who had only voted for him because it would prove America is not racist. Well we did that- now we can go back to electing based on experience and competence.

His campaign's core message has not been his record- but instead that Mitt is some Ayn Rand nut job who will give your wife cancer while he wheels g-ma off the cliff and sends jobs to Bolivia. In the first debate, and in the TV ads America sees Mitt as a reasonable, moderate, competent manager who was elected Gov of Mass- how radical could the guy be and still get elected Gov of Kennedy country?

I'm a full supporter of everything you said- get out the vote, let your vote count, drag your neighbor to the polls etc. But there are just too many erosions from his previous voters- hard to find people who would be `new' Obama voters.

I am too verbose- I need an editor!

: Thanks for the summary from this ... (5.00 / 7) (#7)
by magster on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:09:43 AM EST

... morning's Fox & Friends. I was too busy looking at all of Obama's excellent overnight polls to tune in this morning.

: Do you actually understand... (5.00 / 0) (#21)
by Dadler