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In A Zero Lower Bound Recession, A Payroll Tax Cut Is Not Stimulative

The Obama Administration wants to extend the temporary payroll tax cut it brokered with Mitch McConnell in December 2010 (it was part of the infamous Deal that extended the Bush tax cuts.) While some like Ezra Klein hailed this initiative as great stimulus, the record is mixed at best. Bruce Bartlett writes:

[T]here is no evidence that the lower payroll tax has done much of anything to stimulate either spending or hiring. There are a number of reasons for this. [. . .T]he tax cut only helps those with jobs. While many have low wages and undoubtedly are spending all their additional cash flow, those with the greatest need and most likely to spend any additional income are the unemployed.

[. . . E]ven if one assumes that the cost of employment has declined and employers can somehow capture some of the payroll tax cut, there’s little sign that labor costs are the principal factor holding back hiring. The main one is a lack of sales, as monthly surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business document. In the latest survey, 23 percent of businesses said poor sales were their No. 1 problem and only 4 percent cited the cost of labor.

(Emphasis supplied.) I'm not sure why the lack of demand in a zero bound recession is not recognized as the problem here by the VSP in this country. The issue is how to stimulate demand. For this purpose, spending, by the government, is what is required. It seems clear no one wants to understand this. Bartlett writes:

In my view, the $110 billion cost of the one-year Social Security tax cut would have been far better spent on measures that would actively raise spending in the economy. Public works would be the best way of doing that. Under current economic conditions, all tax cuts are essentially passive and do almost nothing to increase aggregate demand or economic output.

This seems obvious. But what is worse is that this tax cut will be used as part of the excuse to cut government spending now and in the future. It was a mistake at the time and it would be a mistake to extend it.

Speaking for me only

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  • Display: Sort:
    Lack of Aggregate Demand (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by MKS on Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 10:18:51 AM EST
    This is what drove Keynes to write his General Theory.....

    Why will few see it?   Good question.

    After all, this Recession is compared to the Great Depression, as in this is the worst economy since the Great Depression.

    Republicans tell me all the time that the New Deal did not work and it took WWII to get us out of the Great Depression......The rejoinder that that shows that the New Deal was too small just amazes them.....

    The reason the Republicans don't see it is that they really don't care about unemployment.  Their bugaboo is taxes and inflation.  They have jobs, and everyone else is just lazy.....That is what they really believe and will say when being honest....

    Obama's compromise position? (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by MO Blue on Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 10:31:33 AM EST
    Conservative economist Kevin Hassett, whose thinking often influences Republicans, sounds a lot like what was proposed by the Cat Food Commission, the Gang of Six and elements of Obama's "Grand Bargain."

    Hassett says a better way is to reduce the costs of long-term benefit programs like Medicare and Social Security and use some of the savings to enact a permanent tax cut for corporations, thus spurring higher earnings. link

    As you can see the focus is on corporate tax cuts and higher corporate earnings for the Masters of the Universe and nothing for the peons but sacrifice.

    Karl Marx Got It Right. Capitalism is a Failure. (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by Dan the Man on Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 10:41:46 AM EST
    Bloomberg Link

    "Marx also pointed out the paradox of over-production and under-consumption: The more people are relegated to poverty, the less they will be able to consume all the goods and services companies produce. When one company cuts costs to boost earnings, it's smart, but when they all do, they undermine the income formation and effective demand on which they rely for revenues and profits.

    This problem, too, is evident in today's developed world. We have a substantial capacity to produce, but in t