GDP Growth Reports: 2nd Qtr 1.3%; 1st Qtr Revised Downward to 0.4%

While the debt ceiling debacle continues, the fact that the economy is tanking comes into clearer view. Today's reports:

Gross domestic product rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate following a 0.4 percent gain in the prior quarter that was less than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 1.8 percent increase. Household purchases, about 70 percent of the economy, climbed 0.1 percent.

< Thursday Night Open Thread | Like The Bush Tax Cuts Extension Never Happened >
  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft

  • Display: Sort:
    Real unemployment up (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by MO Blue on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:11:12 AM EST
    Nearly 14 million people remain out of work.

    Though the recession officially ended two years ago, economic growth remains too weak to recover the 8.4 million jobs lost during the slump.

    The higher U6 unemployment rate, which includes part-time workers who would prefer full-time jobs and people who have given up looking, also increased in June, from 15.8 percent to 16.2 percent. link

    More austerity - more job loss. Hecka of job, Obama.

    The new normal. (none / 0) (#24)
    by KeysDan on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:31:53 AM EST
    Sad to say (none / 0) (#36)
    by MO Blue on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:53:21 AM EST
    we may not have reached the low point that will become the new normal.

    The American people may not be working (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Dadler on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:19:07 AM EST
    But corruption still is.  And it's the one thing really, to this day, that no one is seriously talking about addressing.  And without taking care of that, well, let's be honest, nothing will ever change, since all the "money" will continue to simply be stolen.  When crime pays the most, you get what you pay for.

    When Lloyd Blankfein is sitting in a prison cell in a state of terminal anguish, when the entirety of his wealth is confiscated, and when other mafioso like him face he same consequences for their crimes, maybe we'll be on the road to fixing things.  As it is, we're talking not just about bandaids on gaping wounds, but about some of the most profound wounds there are, that continue to bleed out and kill us.

    David Kurtz on GDP (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by MO Blue on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:19:51 AM EST
    Let's go ahead and suck some more demand out of the economy by cutting government spending. But first, it'd be a good idea to roil the credit markets by flirting with government default.

    Anything we're leaving out of this recipe for disaster? link

    But thank god the pols are focused on the REAL (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by ruffian on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:25:18 AM EST
    problem, the national debt.


    Downward revision to 0.4%? (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:50:17 AM EST
    Wow, the technical definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  If Q1 only grew at 0.4%, then we are essentially there right now.  The difference is so small it really doesn't matter.

    And the 3rd quarter is shaping up to be (none / 0) (#7)
    by tigercourse on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:54:41 AM EST
    another piss poor cycle. No matter what happens in Washington over the next 5 days, it's going to hurt the economy - the only difference is in the degree. I think some people have been fooled by unaturally high stock prices into thinking that this economy was healthier then it is. I feel like a large scale disabusing is on the way.

    I've always found (none / 0) (#53)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 01:53:30 PM EST
    the definition which declares an end to recession to be rather ridiculous.  It's X quarters of growth. (can't remember if it's two or three, or whatever)

    According to that definition the Great Depression ended sometime in late 1934.

    Until an economy regains levels of employment before the recession then the recession is not over.


    Brooklynbadboy (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by lilburro on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:39:39 AM EST
    has a diary about Obama losing the support of independents (according to Pew).

    This shift is driven by a steep drop-off in support for Obama among independents. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 20-24 among 1,501 adults and 1,205 registered voters finds that just 31% of independent voters want to see Obama reelected, down from 42% in May and 40% in March. Where Obama held a slim 7-point edge among independent registered voters two months ago, a generic Republican holds an 8-point edge today.

    And he provides some commentary:

    Dear clueless: throw out your playbook. It's f*cked. People definitely give a sh*t about the unemployment rate, even if they have a job. There's this little thing Americans like to do. It's called getting ahead. When people think they can get ahead, they go ahead and spend. If things look sh*tty, they hold back and wait. So sir, you are absolutely mistaken if you think the public doesn't pay attention to what is going on in the broader economy. They do.

    I have to say, I appreciate reading the erm, "spicy" language over at DK.  But I'm glad we don't really participate in that here.  I know if we didn't I would probably embarrass myself.  It would be bad.

    One more thing to add to his (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by MO Blue on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:51:52 AM EST

    Independent voters receive SS and Medicare, are boomers and have counted on receiving SS and Medicare, have relatives that receive SS, Medicare and Medicaid and wouldn't appreciate having their family members thrown out in the street or moving in with them.


    Independent Voters (5.00 / 2) (#37)
    by jbindc on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:55:55 AM EST
    Are also more likely to want change faster.  If this isn't working for them, they are willing to try something new.  Unlike party loyalists who would go down with the Titanic to vote for their own party only.

    And this is where (none / 0) (#50)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 01:28:53 PM EST
    the Obama gang has it all wrong.  My impression is the Obama team believes Independents are some group of people who make a down the middle calculation about public policy and consider cuts to Social Security, etc. as just another policy like cutting taxes for business or cutting various subsidies.  IMO, they're seen as a group that's insulated and detached just like the Obama crowd that views the nation as an Excel spreadsheet instead of a social compact defined by geography.

    For Independents as with everyone else, it's always the economy and talk about cutting Social Security, etc. only makes matters worse.


    Kazakhstan is looking (none / 0) (#5)
    by observed on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 08:28:15 AM EST

    Please keep us up to date (none / 0) (#30)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:42:50 AM EST
    on the process!

    I will. At this point, I think I would take (none / 0) (#38)
    by observed on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 12:36:23 PM EST
    the job, if offered; definitely with some trepidation.

    Borat or bust! (none / 0) (#31)
    by Dadler on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:47:37 AM EST

    Kazakhstan (none / 0) (#39)
    by Warren Terrer on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 12:54:26 PM EST
    greatest country in the world.
    All other countries are run by little girls!

    More depressing (none / 0) (#8)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 09:13:50 AM EST
    economic news. Same ole same ole. We can expect to continue the bad news for quite a while.

    Atrios with some short (none / 0) (#9)
    by MO Blue on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 09:43:40 AM EST
    but cut to the bone posts.

    Better Living Through The Suffering Of Others

    This is all just part of the morality play which is going on in the heads of rich people. I don't know precisely who he imagines is going to experience pain, but generally the theory is once poor people suffer a bit more for the sins of rich people everything will be ok again.

    The link is to Fox's Cavuto but that seems to accurately describe the mindset of the D.C. crowd. Both Rs and Ds.  

    "Less Than Expected"
    It is a theme these days.

    So many problems could be solved by simply giving people other than banksters some free money.

    Which is why, of course, we aren't doing it.

    The next time I hear (none / 0) (#51)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 01:36:15 PM EST
    a banker or Conservative talk about moral hazard I'm going to vomit.

    Also disturbing (none / 0) (#10)
    by lilburro on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 09:55:27 AM EST
    The missing piece was today's Bureau of Economic Analysis report. The expected headline was that growth had slowed, and indeed it has: The economy grew at a annual rate of just 1.3 percent in the second quarter of this year. What wasn't expected is that the BEA would go back and admit it's been overestimating growth for the past three years. "For 2007-2010, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of less than 0.1 percent."

    As Wolfers suggests, these numbers solve the mystery in the labor market. This isn't about confidence or uncertainty or regulations or any of the other bankshot explanations we've been using to explain why unemployment seems stuck even as the economy rebounds. The economy isn't rebounding. Demand isn't returning. And without demand, there can't be jobs.

    Ezra Klein

    And it's still worse than Wolfers (none / 0) (#52)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 01:43:22 PM EST

    One often overlooked element of our weak economy and poor prospects is the enormous loss of manufacturing base.  Even if massive spending on infrastructure suddenly occurred there are fewer good permanent jobs available.  There's nowhere to go.  Adequate spending would help for awhile but the long term prospects are bleak.  The number to watch if spending were adequate would be the increase of the balance of trade deficit.

    It's almost as though we are a nation slashing its own wrists.


    This all sucks (none / 0) (#11)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:00:13 AM EST

    And all so drearily (none / 0) (#21)
    by smott on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:25:14 AM EST

    Raise your hands, anybody who's surprised....

    Here's Aravosis - he seems like he's finally gettign a divorce...



    Yupp (none / 0) (#23)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:29:45 AM EST
    as he said, they all need to be fired....

    Starting at the top (none / 0) (#25)
    by smott on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:35:04 AM EST
    John Boehner, Orange Smurf (none / 0) (#12)
    by FreakyBeaky on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:04:34 AM EST
    Think that weakling will get his joke of a bill passed today?

    I don't.

    The weakling who might not get his (5.00 / 2) (#32)
    by Anne on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:47:41 AM EST
    bill passed v. the I-don't-know-what that will get his, or some blended/hybrid version, passed would be a real contest if there were some significant ideological difference between them - but there aren't.

    There's no one who gets any say who's arguing for a true Democratic position, which should be: clean debt ceiling bill, with no spending cuts and no mother-freakin' "commission" designed to do an end run around a real small-d democratic process, because - wait for it - that is not how we grow the economy and increase demand and spur hiring.


    Sorry for yelling, but there's no ideological tension that would put divergent ideas on the table, with history as a guide, to demonstrate with super-HD clarity what needs to be done.

    And why is that?

    Because Obama has been speaking and spouting  Republican nonsense from his bully pulpit for months on end, with almost no pushback from within the Democratic caucus, and in the face of a moribund economy that is already at near-zero growth.  We have had no discussion about whether we should cut, only discussion about what we should cut and by how much.

    The fix, as they say, has been in for a long time, and whether Boehner does or doesn't get his bill, whether he does or doesn't look like he could be easily picked off by the oh-so-odious Eric Cantor, the only thing that really matters is that the economy is going to end up going in the wrong direction - and just as in the past, most Republicans won't vote for the final bill, so they will be positioned to absolve themselves of blame for the inevitable ugliness that's coming.

    Well played, Mr. Obama...


    Yes (none / 0) (#16)
    by jbindc on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:14:14 AM EST
    The Tea Party will fall in line if they want money next election cycle to get re-elected. The Senate will then shoot it down and the Republicans can then say "we tried".  The entire fiasco, and what results from it is squarely on the Dems going into the election cycle.

    What are the nbrs? (none / 0) (#22)
    by smott on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:28:59 AM EST
    Assuming Pelosi gets 100% Dem NO - how many TPrs' NOs needed to screw Boehner?

    He's probably (none / 0) (#44)
    by jbindc on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 01:52:55 PM EST
    going to get 10-20 with the newly added balanced budget amendment tonight when they vote.

    Oh well. Lost that one. (none / 0) (#54)
    by FreakyBeaky on Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 02:17:49 PM EST
    You'll all be relieved to know I don't pick stocks.

    so... the economy's close to (none / 0) (#13)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:08:50 AM EST
    a standstill. I think the second dip is approaching.

    History... Beginning of Roosevelt's second term...austerity... oh, my!

    I think we are IN the second dip now (none / 0) (#14)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:11:54 AM EST
    In economics you never know when you are actually in recession or out of recession until it is months behind you :)

    sigh, true. (none / 0) (#19)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:18:56 AM EST
    Japanification (none / 0) (#15)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:13:45 AM EST

    Giltrification. Rove's dream, realized. (none / 0) (#17)
    by observed on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:18:31 AM EST
    Norquistication (none / 0) (#41)
    by Dr Molly on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 01:19:14 PM EST
    Just continuing the theme...

    There are some bright spots though (none / 0) (#18)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:18:35 AM EST
    These are bright spots? (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:21:57 AM EST
    What's a dark spot for you?  A black hole?

    The 'bright' spot i guess (none / 0) (#26)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:53:07 AM EST
    is no longer hemorrhaging?

    ROTFLMAO (none / 0) (#27)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:29:29 AM EST
    Notice how many "red states" were left off that list like SC who has increased unemployment. Talking about apologia for failure.

    Nope. Those numbers are outdated (none / 0) (#28)
    by Towanda on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:30:07 AM EST
    and six months old now (see December 2010 on the chart?).  I've seen current data on some of those states, now dealing with increases in unemployment rates.

    redstate bluestate (none / 0) (#33)
    by CST on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:47:56 AM EST
    this was supposed to be the end of some kind of dr. suess-like rhyme but I'm not that clever.

    In any event, you can cherry pick your data to say just about anything.  Link to actual state data.

    "Over the month, 16 states recorded statistically significant changes in employment.
    The four states reporting the largest over-the-month statistically significant job
    gains were Texas (+32,000), California (+28,800), Michigan (+18,000), and
    Minnesota (+13,200). Over-the-month statistically significant declines
    in employment occurred in Tennessee (-16,900), Missouri (-15,700), Virginia
    (-14,600), and Kansas (-7,500).

    Over the year, 18 states experienced statistically significant changes in
    employment, all of which were increases. The largest increase occurred in Texas
    (+220,000), followed by California (+157,000), Ohio (+72,400), and Illinois
    (+59,000). (See table D.)"

    So sure, under some metrics, the red states are better-performing states.  And under other metrics, they are the worst-performing states.  In any event, considering that republicans have well over half the governerships in the country, it's no surprise that some of the better performing states are going to be red states, and some of the worst.   And then there is this stat:

    "The West had the highest regional unemployment rate in June, 10.4 percent,
    while the Northeast had the lowest rate, 8.1 percent."

    I must have forgotten about that conservative stronghold in the Northeast - must be why it's doing so well.


    Red state- blue state (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by ruffian on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 01:18:51 PM EST
    we are screwed-state

    What we really need is some Government Salami (none / 0) (#34)
    by Dadler on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 11:51:36 AM EST
    Yikes! n/t (none / 0) (#43)
    by oldpro on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 01:41:57 PM EST
    Satire (none / 0) (#45)
    by Dadler on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 02:04:39 PM EST
    I hope.

    ick (none / 0) (#46)
    by The Addams Family on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 06:36:28 PM EST
    sexism with a side of racism (antisemitic variety) & a great big ol' dollop of p3n!s obsession - this guy (author is obviously a guy) has, um, "issues"

    wow (none / 0) (#47)
    by Dadler on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 07:06:31 PM EST
    volumes of issues.  bound in very tattered cloth.

    jaysus, and i thought i was the only one who had 'em.



    what is it? (none / 0) (#48)
    by The Addams Family on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 09:00:41 PM EST
    some kind of sicko fan fiction?

    that's a very odd link

    how did you happen upon this chef d'oeuvre of eeew?


    Obama is toast (none / 0) (#49)
    by Slado on Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:06:57 PM EST
    He tried to right the ship and he has failed. The ditch is a valley.  Headwinds are now gale force winds and he's out of ammunition.

    Romney or Perry?