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Obama Tells Mubarak to Go Sooner

By Jeralyn, Section Foreign Affairs
Posted on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 06:18:46 PM EST
Tags: Egypt, Mubarak (all tags)
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"We've already said good-bye...Go now"

President Obama called Egypt President Hosni Mubarak after his announcement today to tell him the transition to a new government needs to begin now:

He said he told Mubarak of "my belief that an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful, and it must begin now."

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    Obama Tells Mubarak to Go Sooner | 70 comments (70 topical)

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    I don't hear him telling Mubarak to (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by ruffian on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 06:38:40 PM EST
    go sooner. I hear the transition should begin now, but no desire on when it should end. Not that it matters - as Obama said, it is up to the Egyptian people, and I doubt they are going to allow Mubarak to stay until September.

    Well...he also said (none / 0) (#3)
    by christinep on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 06:59:08 PM EST
    more than once that the Egyptian people's will must be the determinor. Frankly--unless we like the Iraq example of forceable eviction (and unless we like the US telling/commanding the MideEast in terms of what to do), I believe the tone matched what should be said from a foreign government, like the US or any western government, at this point.

    Think about what may be clouding your interpretation? Is it clear? Or does your domestic political position get in the way of this obvious inexorable move to the final act?
    In saying this, I am reminded that we as the US can and must push and support the Egyptian people, but to up-the-ante to much really contradicts what so many of us said in earlier US intervention situations (esp. Iraq.)

    In my estimation, this is playing out to be a matter of days.

    Parent

    I agree - I said he said it is up to the (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by ruffian on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 08:26:19 PM EST
    Egyptian people.  And I think he struck the right tone. I just don't agree he urged the speeding along of events, in that statement at least. And that is fine - it is not his place as a foreign leader.

    I also strongly applaud the lack of fear mongering. I like that he put it in a historical, 'in the course of human events' context.

    Parent

    according to the Post (none / 0) (#17)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:37:34 PM EST
    In public statements since Sunday, the administration has called for an "orderly transition" in Egypt, defined by officials as the immediate establishment of a representative, interim government that would enact reforms and prepare for an open election. (my emphasis)

    Although officials have said the administration was not opposed to Mubarak's remaining in office through a transition period if that were acceptable to the Egyptian people, several indicated in recent days that they did not see how that would satisfy the vast throngs who have taken to the streets to demand his ouster.

    No one is talking about him leaving Egypt, just giving up power. I think that's what "go sooner" means -- give up power sooner than the elections even if he retains a nominal title. I could be wrong, but that's how I take it.

    Parent

    I think the president's statement (5.00 / 4) (#2)
    by KeysDan on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 06:53:12 PM EST
    was a very good one.  The "transition should begin now" coupled with the obvious pressure applied to obtain Mubarak's agreement not to run again provides diplomatic room for the complexities involved. And, importantly, the constructive public statement  should remove, in large measure, perceptions that may exist that the Administration is sitting on the fence.  

    I took it as his first definite stand on (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:08:37 PM EST
    well, just about anything. Let's get Mr. Mubarak packed and headed to Bahrain, and see some democratic institutions developed, and some elections.

    He's sending Frank Wisner (none / 0) (#5)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:12:15 PM EST
    I think protecting corporate elite interests is the top priority now....or it would seem so to me with this pick.

    Parent
    That will happen until (none / 0) (#6)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:17:02 PM EST
    the real will of the people gets expressed. I don't think the current elites in Egypt will be quite as powerful after Egypt changes... provided it gets to.

    Parent
    this may sound 'out there,' (none / 0) (#7)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:18:58 PM EST
    but I'd like to see Odierno on any transition-building-aid team. He has tremendous credibility in the Arab world. He's also just, and a constitutionalist.

    Parent
    Plus, after herding and poking sticks (none / 0) (#9)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:21:31 PM EST
    at cats in Iraq, his language and culture skills should be well polished. Different accents, but similarities abound.

    Egypt-- pride, dignity, humility, desire to share...same as the iraqi people.

    Parent

    I don't really care for him (none / 0) (#12)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:25:38 PM EST
    off the cuff.  But Jesus, at least he isn't a damned crook and up to his neck in Wall Street's ripoff of the whole fricken world now.  If he has the credibility with the people I could stomach it.  At least I know his head would be in the right place, he's about saving lives...not corporations.

    Parent
    Hmmm. A lot of the folks I know (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:29:08 PM EST
    either can't stand him but know he'll perform his duty, or love him and would lead the columns to the gates of perdition.

    I take it as a vote of confidence, actually, MT, that you say what you do.

    Odierno didn't leave with a whole lot of friends, but he did leave with a lot of respect, I think.

    Parent

    It is the same from what I hear too (none / 0) (#16)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:34:05 PM EST
    We had a friend who was one of his aides....and it just chapped me that Odierno has to eat off of silver service everyday even in a war zone.  For some reason that just fries my butt :)

    Parent
    Yeah, that Caesar stuff (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:39:47 PM EST
    bothers me, also. But I was a snake eater, and he's field artillery. He's probably gone to the field with a bunk in a trailer since he was a butterbar.

    Parent
    Snake eater? (none / 0) (#46)
    by MKS on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 12:35:17 PM EST
    What is that?

    Artillery as MOS does have its rivals...

    Butterbar?  2nd Lt.?

    Parent

    Its all goofy stuff (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 02:04:43 PM EST
    When someone is a new officer and 2nd Lt, their rank insignia is one golden bar.  I think they call them butter bars cuz they are soft and melt easy under heat :)  A snake eater is someone out of special forces.

    There is a lot of ribbing in the military for new officers.  My husband says that hearing three things should strike terror in any soldiers heart and those are a Lt. telling you that they have a great idea, a Captain shouting, "Follow Me Men!", and a Warrant Officer saying, "Hey, Watch This!".

    Parent

    He would just piss off American corporate (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:31:57 PM EST
    interests though Jeff.  Remember the military officers here recently and the attempted selling of the Harvard Business School's model of creating successful organization, and a military officer standing up and asking why he would want to follow such a model after what it had done to our economy :)?

    Parent
    Do you mean he's (none / 0) (#18)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:38:14 PM EST
    'not diplomatic in comportment?"  Ray-Ray's never been known for that! ;-) Never met him during my time in, but I've had a few old comrades compare his comportment to Joe Stilwell. Sounds like a good match for this as-yet unmade mission.

    Parent
    I'm sure that Wisner's biggest (none / 0) (#24)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:49:55 PM EST
    concern is going to be that canal and what happens with that canal every day.  Not so sure Odierno is going to start his day every day with that, pretty sure that won't be his main focus after he is served coffee :)  Not sure how he would break that to those running Washington at this time though and the first ones who made a beeline for the President's office today sobbing hysterically.

    Parent
    Let's hope this helps (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:20:31 PM EST
    but Obama is reacting rather than leading.  Not very good.

    Just what kind of leading is Obama supposed (5.00 / 3) (#10)
    by tigercourse on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:22:17 PM EST
    to do in the internal affairs of a foreign nation? There is only so much he can or should do.

    Parent
    Promoting democracy and human rights (none / 0) (#32)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 10:41:53 PM EST


    Parent
    I agree Obama should make (none / 0) (#47)
    by MKS on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 12:37:22 PM EST
    sure Mubarak leaves now, and democracy is established in Egypt--without any violence, and without appearing to dictate to the Egyptian people that the U.S. is calling the shots.

    Yes, he should do that.

    Parent

    Sounds good, but... (none / 0) (#49)
    by christinep on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 01:22:53 PM EST
    would that require some direct intervention by the US, a foreign government, to "make sure" of the immediate leaving <that we would all like to see>? Certainly, there is room for more stepped up pressure--economically/drawing down aid, etc. There is also room for repetition--by the State Dept--of President Obama's stated position that the transition "begin now."

    When does push become shove, so to speak? That is, I'm assuming most do not want US military interaction of any sort or any public show of crossing a certain understood line; and, with that assumption, is it at all possible or advisable to "push" beyond the sovereign state line in this day & age after all that has happened? And, based on our experiences, is there agreement that most covert attempts at toppling have a way of becoming overt?

    My own take for some days now has been that the turning point has passed...that we are only seeing real disputes over the "when" of the leaving.

    Parent

    Excuse me MKS (none / 0) (#50)
    by christinep on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 01:25:26 PM EST
    On second look, I see that my response should have been made directly to the individual describing the immediate attainment of the ideal. Oops.

    Parent
    It is a confusing and quickly changing (none / 0) (#53)
    by MKS on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 01:54:10 PM EST
    situation....

    Hard to judge right now....

    Parent

    There's a pew (none / 0) (#11)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:23:20 PM EST
    poll over at Huffington Post that says that only 17% of Egyptians have a positive view of Obama and the US. I hope this doesn't mean that fundamentalist radicals can get a hold of the leadership in Egypt.

    And we can compare and contrast... (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by EL seattle on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 09:18:08 PM EST
    ..to a recent BBC World Service poll.

    NYT: Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight - 1/31/2011

    The story is by Nate Silver.  I don't know of he (or the BBC) are reliable/respectable sources or not.  I've kinda lost track of that stuff lately.

    Parent

    I don't see how Obama's low numbers (none / 0) (#15)
    by tigercourse on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:33:38 PM EST
    in Egypt would lead to a radical government.

    However, Pew also says this -

    "95% of Egyptian muslims want more "religion" in politics.
    54% support gender separation in the workplace.
    82% support the stoning of adulterers.
    77% support amputations and whipping of thieves.
    84% support the death sentence for apostasy. Etc, etc

    http://pewglobal.org/files/2010/12/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Muslim-Report-FINAL-December-2-2010.pdf"

    I would say that data makes a fundamentalist government a strong possibility.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#20)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:39:52 PM EST
    you never know but gosh, those numbers are even worse. Sigh. Do you know what percentage of Egyptians are Muslims? The few Egyptians that I've known here in the US basically had no religious beliefs.

    Parent
    Roughly 85 percent, (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:44:21 PM EST
    maybe a little bit less. the rest are Christians, Coptic, Orthodox, and Catholic. Insignificant number of protestants.

    But Egypt won't be another Iran. conservative, yes. But no Ayatollahs in Sunni Islam.

    The country probably will be no more conservative than it is now.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#22)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:47:21 PM EST
    I hope you are right. Personally, I don't care what government they choose for themselves but another fundamentalist Islam country would give the neocons another hammer to wield to start yet another war in the Middle East.

    Parent
    Wikipedia says it's about 90%. (none / 0) (#23)
    by tigercourse on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:47:22 PM EST


    Parent
    Problem is, we don't know the ratio of (none / 0) (#25)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:50:57 PM EST
    'nominal' to 'deeply religious.'

    90 wouldn't surprise me. I guess the Christian identifying population isn't keeping up with birth rates.

    Parent

    I'm sure they (none / 0) (#26)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:53:29 PM EST
    aren't since Christians can only have one spouse.

    Parent
    If that 84% support for the death penalty (none / 0) (#27)
    by tigercourse on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:54:54 PM EST
    for apostasy is close to correct, I'd say that a large number are deeply religious

    Parent
    Perhaps most importantly... (none / 0) (#34)
    by EL seattle on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 05:25:18 AM EST
    ... according to the Wikipedia entry on Religion in Egypt:

    The vast majority of Muslims in Egypt are part of the Sunni Islam. A significant number of Muslim Egyptians also follow native Sufi orders, and there is a minority of Shi'a numbering a few thousands.

    So as I understand it, unlike Iraq, Egypt doesn't have much of a Sunni/Shi'a power struggle.  And it doesn't have anything quite like the Kurdish issue to resolve at some point. And even if he's a dictator, Mubarak isn't exactly a monster like Sadam was.  So I think that Egypt should be in a better position for regime change than other countries in the area.

    Does anyone know if Boutros Boutros-Ghali has come out with a statement on all of the recent developments?

    Parent

    Sufis--that could be a good sign (none / 0) (#48)
    by MKS on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 12:42:59 PM EST
    Sunnis--Al Qaeda is Sunni.  The Ayatollahs in Iran, Shia.....

    Moderates in each sect--that is the key...

    Parent

    I dunno (none / 0) (#35)
    by lilburro on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 08:18:16 AM EST
    polls are polls.  You could ask the people of Egypt if they supported Sharia law as a whole and the answer could be entirely different.  If they want to incorporate Muslim beliefs into their laws, they are free to do so.

    Also, take this statistic for example:

    Many Muslims see a struggle between those who want to modernize their country and Islamic fundamentalists.  Only in Jordan and Egypt do majorities say there is no such struggle in their countries (72% and 61%, respectively).

    Egyptians from what I can tell and what little I know generally practice a rather moderate, kind of modern version of Islam.  So if that's what Islam is to them, it's not a surprise, or necessarily worrying to us, that they would see it as a positive influence on politics.  Our concept of separation of church and state isn't even particularly strong in our country.

    I just don't believe that Egypt harbors some dark secret we don't know about.  They want democracy, they want Mubarak gone, and presumably more US aid.  I don't see them suddenly radicalizing.  I could be wrong but that's my 2 cents.

    Parent

    That's a very good statement (none / 0) (#28)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 07:57:22 PM EST
    I can't think of anything I wish he had said or not said (except a variation on his trademark "let me be clear").

    Hannity (none / 0) (#30)
    by lilburro on Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 09:04:12 PM EST
    wants us to protect American interests above all.  "Shouldn't the President as a moral issue take a stand against the Muslim Brotherhood?"  Now to hear what Larry the Cable Guy has to say on the issue.

    Democracy for me, but not for thee.

    Also this:

    HANNITY: You seem to be very much at peace with the idea that -- that history will write about the Bush presidency.
    BUSH: Yes.
    HANNITY: And that chapter hasn't been written. That -- that book hasn't been written --
    BUSH: And it can't be written for a while.
    HANNITY: Well, why --
    BUSH: Because -- because historians who live the moment have got their prejudices. And there needs to be a time to be able to fully analyze the consequences of the decision to not only liberate Iraq but to then help the Iraqis develop their own democracy.
    HANNITY: And what happened after? What happened 10 years later?
    BUSH: Exactly.
    HANNITY: What happened 20 years later?
    BUSH: Right. And the effect of a free Iraq if in fact the democracy succeeds like I think it will on other countries.
    HANNITY: You think history will judge you fairly?
    BUSH: Yes.

    Actually, Larry appears to have little to say about Egypt, he is just upset he is being frisked by the TSA when he is white.  

    I mean, I know Republicans are hypocrites, but my god.  We lost how many lives, spent how much in Iraq, and they have the gall to discredit all the lies and intentions they had when invading it in the first place?

    Anderson Cooper just attacked by pro-Mubarak mob (none / 0) (#36)
    by ruffian on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 08:36:37 AM EST
    Punched about ten times in the head, according to CNN.

    Maybe it's time for now to mean NOW.

    I mean sooner to mean now (none / 0) (#37)
    by ruffian on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 08:43:05 AM EST
    His thugs are going to be causing trouble until he is gone.

    Parent
    I just saw on a news crawler (none / 0) (#41)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 10:55:03 AM EST
    the "pro Mubarak" groups on horses and camels running through the people being called "rent a crowd"

    Parent
    Wow (none / 0) (#38)
    by lilburro on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 08:43:25 AM EST
    too many people are accessing Al Jazeera for me to be able to so I am following the day's events over at the NYT liveblog.  I hope the Coop is okay.  Anyway the stuff posted by Sandmonkey there is interesting.

    Camels and Horses used by Pro Mubarak protesters to attack Anti-Mubarak protesters. This is becoming literally a circus.

    You can't even make up a movie that would equal this level of insanity.

    ...

    people are showing on TV holding police ID's from the protesters they just clashed with.

    Mubarak has proven to be smarter than all of us, he will not leave. Just watch.

    The aim of this is to evacuate the Tahrir square & justify never having protests there Friday, where 1 is scheduled, or ever again.

    Authoritarian regimes, watch Mubarak and learn from the master.... Ben Ali must be so jealous he didn't think of this psychotic brilliant plan.

    They don't trust that their dictator will leave, and who can blame them?  


    Parent

    After watching Ahmadinijad brazen it out (none / 0) (#39)
    by ruffian on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 09:56:39 AM EST
    I think the calculation is - who's gonna MAKE me leave?

    Parent
    Given the level of violence that is (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by Anne on Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 10:41:54 AM EST
    erupting between pro- and anti-government supporters, and the military's 180 in their treatment of the protestors, I'm starting to think that "transition" may be Mubarak-speak for "head fake," and that he may try one more time to put his boot on the neck of the Egyptian people in the name of "security."  

    From what I've been reading this morning, it appears that it was all the US could do to stay marginally ahead of the curve on this whole situation; this from the NYT was troubling:

    American officials had also been in close contact with Vice President Suleiman, who may be playing a particularly pivotal role in managing the transition of power. American and Egyptian officials who know him well describe him as both a cunning operator and Mr. Mubarak's closest aide. He is also considered the figure with the largest base of support in Egypt's security forces because his work as intelligence chief