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Election Night Thread

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections
Posted on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 07:21:16 PM EST
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Stephen Strasbourg went 7 innings, gave up 2 runs, an HR and 4 hits while K-ing 14 (including the last 7 he faced) in the most anticipated MLB debut in recent memory. The Nats beat the Bucs 4-2. Strasbourg gets his first big league win.

Game 3 of the NBA Finals is tonight.

And there are elections going on around the country. I'm paying attention to 2 results-- Bill Halter's effort to retire Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Head Birther Orly Taitz's run for the GOP nomination for Secretary of State in California.

UPDATE: Lincoln wins. Sure loser in November though.

Please report in on other interesting races.

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    Election Night Thread | 51 comments (51 topical)

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    Main event is the season finale of (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 08:18:40 PM EST
    Justified of course, in 42 minutes and counting down. Will Boyd Crowder make it into Season 2? I sure hope so!

    Raylon I will miss your hotness over the summer.

    Episode is called 'Bulletville' (none / 0) (#16)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:19:09 PM EST
    Apt title, is all I'm sayin'.

    Parent
    CA Chamber of Commerce wins (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by waldenpond on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 12:47:39 AM EST
    Prop 14 passes.  Open primaries.  Open the money spigots.  blech.

    16 to close to call? (none / 0) (#29)
    by nycstray on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 01:02:33 AM EST
    :(

    Parent
    Even I'm not following any of this (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 07:38:25 PM EST
    As expectations gaming goes, it will be a massive win for Blanche if she pulls it off. She's still toast in November though. (And no, I'm not rooting for her).

    Good call on Orly, though. I'll be amused if she wins. Consider that even if she gets blown out in November, she's still likely to get more votes than anyone else in the country.

    I don't really get the big deal about (none / 0) (#2)
    by tigercourse on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 07:39:40 PM EST
    Arkansas. Yeah, if a Halter victory or loss had any effect on the general election I could certainly see why it matters a great deal. But he will lose the GE and so will Lincoln. A Republican will have the see in about 5 months and not many people are going to care that the somewhat more liberal candidate won or lost in the primary.

    I'm interested in the South Carolina race (none / 0) (#3)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 07:44:29 PM EST
    with the woman who was accused of having an affair with her opponent's aide. Jon Stewart had a funny piece about that last night. I'm rooting for her despite her tea party support. I figure SC is going to elect a nut case anyway, so it may as well be this woman.

    Nikki Haley is winning with 43% (none / 0) (#5)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 08:15:34 PM EST
    Not enough to avoid a run-off. Not sure if the run-off opponent, Gresham Barrett, is the one who's aide alleges the affair. Didn't follow it all that closely, what with the oil spill and the wars and all.

    Parent
    Actually (none / 0) (#10)
    by CoralGables on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 09:34:12 PM EST
    2 different accusations. The first from someone that worked for one of her campaigns, and the second from an opponent's staff member.

    Parent
    Haley also said (none / 0) (#30)
    by jbindc on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 07:19:17 AM EST
    If either of the two men whom she supposedly had affairs with, could offer any proof of said affairs, she'd quit (or resign if it came out afterwards).  So far, no proof has been offered.

    Parent
    Unless (none / 0) (#33)
    by CoralGables on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 09:09:03 AM EST
    you're into filming yourself, proof never exists.

    But well played on her part. How could anyone prove they had sex with someone a year ago.

    Parent

    Hotel receipts (none / 0) (#34)
    by jbindc on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 09:27:50 AM EST
    witnesses who saw them "canoodling", etc.  There's all kinds of ways to infer, if not prove, an affair.

    Parent
    There (none / 0) (#35)
    by CoralGables on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 09:39:11 AM EST
    has been plenty of inferring including lengthy late night phone records and neighbors offering confirmation of late night visits. None of which is proof of a damn thing but certainly can be seen as inferring certain things

    Keep in mind the first accusation was from a conservative blogger who along with the website he founded supports Haley. He's also married and has plenty to lose by going public.

    Parent

    If I were her I would have said (none / 0) (#37)
    by ruffian on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 10:29:33 AM EST
    that if anyone could offer evidence that any affairs I did nor did not have negatively impacted my job performance, I would resign.

    But that's just me.

    Parent

    I agree (none / 0) (#38)
    by jbindc on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 10:35:33 AM EST
    Here's her exact words:

    "If something comes out after you win the primary, or after you win the general election [to] become South Carolina's next governor, if something were to come out that validates the claims that have been made against you -- in terms of stepping out on your husband and on your marriage -- would you resign as governor because basically the way you've handled it has been an absolute, 100 percent denial?" the host asked Haley.

    "Yes," the state representative responded.

    "Yes, you would resign?" the host again asked.

    "Yes," she said.



    Parent
    Haley just under the magic 50% (none / 0) (#15)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:18:09 PM EST
    to void a runoff. Speculation at Salon that the opponent, who has just 21%, may withdraw to look magnanimous. I'd say that ship sailed.

    Parent
    Lincoln's ahead (none / 0) (#4)
    by waldenpond on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 07:58:33 PM EST
    I'm paying attention in CA because of the props.  They were the only reason I voted.  I was absolutely unenthused by any policitician and could care less who wins.

    Lincoln 54 Halter 46   (.2% in!)

    Calhoun is the one compete cty (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 08:27:06 PM EST
    so far. Bad news for Halter: fewer votes than in round 1, and he didn't maintain the size of his margin.

    Silly to project that outwards, though.

    Parent

    Lincoln is back from the dead (none / 0) (#8)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 09:13:28 PM EST
    But for how long?

    Lincoln wins (none / 0) (#12)
    by RonK Seattle on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:04:22 PM EST
    ... and AR Dems dodge a potentially severe embarrassment, win or lose in November.

    Seen the NYT profile on Halter?

    Parent

    I did not (none / 0) (#13)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:07:50 PM EST
    I'm pretty sure they're guaranteed to lose the seat--especially with her. But it would have been useful from an ideological standpoint for her to have lost.


    Parent
    Lincoln has a better shot at Boozman. (none / 0) (#18)
    by RonK Seattle on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:22:31 PM EST
    Still a long-shot, and further damaged by the primary and the runoff.

    Halter's resume was a veritable pavilion of red flags.

    Parent

    Saying Lincoln has abetter shot (none / 0) (#19)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:32:31 PM EST
    is nuts IMO.

    All academic now.

    Parent

    Reasoning, evidence, experience. (none / 0) (#21)
    by RonK Seattle on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:40:50 PM EST
    BTD garbled the poll results, and neglected more than one of the dynamics that affects settings like this. Maybe you did, too.

    That doesn't make you nuts - just sloppy.

    Parent

    The poll results were pretty (none / 0) (#24)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:44:51 PM EST
    unequivocal. Lincoln is damaged goods.

    but who knows, maybe she can capture the magic/strategy of tonight in a bottle.

    Parent

    You thought so? (none / 0) (#45)
    by RonK Seattle on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 12:08:17 PM EST
    Maybe you misread then - like BTD did. Maybe you missed the mislabeled Mason-Dixon results - like BTD did. Maybe you failed to notice that almost all of them were Rasmussen (questionable) or dailyKos (discredited). Maybe you failed to adjust for the effect of two attacking opponents, or strategic poll response by Halter Democrats, or the usual incumbent/challenger vs unknown/challenger effects.

    Anyway, where the poll pro's hang out, they saying wait three weeks for the bounce to settle out before anybody takes a reality reading.

    Damaged? Sure. Out of it? Too soon to say. And that Halter character? A campaign's nightmare and an opponent's dream.

    Parent

    Heh (none / 0) (#46)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 12:10:09 PM EST
    She is toast. You want to creditably argue how she is going to win in November in Arkansas, I am all ears.

    Parent
    Just a guess (none / 0) (#48)
    by christinep on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 02:35:05 PM EST
    Run as an "independent" Democrat. Use words like "stood up to the big <fill in the blank> of the party" "said no to outsiders" "pulling for Arkansans and pushing hard on Wall Street with the strongest law written in Congress (i.e., derivatives--she can define how she wants because noone understands derivatives anyway)" and such like. She runs "against Washington" that way, while--at the same time--once in a sly while pointing out that she has the kind of power there to bring home that bacon that everyone eschews but then loves when its on their table.
    It is stunning that she won under the conditions of the day; so, I wouldn't count her out.

    If some of the crazies Repub candidates--from Nevada, South Carolina, and South Carolina--start to make the noise that gets the unfavorable national coverage, that may well morph in the national consciousness to cause a return to "safe" bet if not sanity. Arkansas is not immune from that kind of mood shift. Sounds far-fetched, but I've seen stranger mood shifts in 5 months. For an example in another state, look at the hand that has now been dealt to Harry Reid.


    Parent

    How many (none / 0) (#49)
    by jbindc on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 03:05:20 PM EST
    of those voters will be persuaded by the ever-popular Dem mantra "Where else are you gonna go?"

    Parent
    She may feel that way, but (none / 0) (#51)
    by christinep on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 04:20:31 PM EST
    she would be "nuts" herself even to suggest it. No, how politics (in its strategic form) plays out has so many permutations. The passing of Kennedy, the election of Republican Brown there, Brown "hero" to the Tea bunch only to become anti-hero in short order. Sanford of SCarolina as "moral voice" and would-be presidential candidate changed to Sanford & Argentina. Crist the beloved of the Republicans to the despised by same to being declared "toast" to becoming Independent to--at least today--ahead in the polls to tomorrow? And, Harry Reid...favored, not favored, favored, loser, maybe not loser, lucky....  Where does this take us? One outlook is that we have no idea. The other outlook? Focus on how you win the hand dealt you. (And, Lincoln picked up some good cards last night in the manner that she won and in the expectations game.)

    Parent
    It is a bit interesting (none / 0) (#27)
    by CoralGables on Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 12:43:04 AM EST
    that Halter worked on a Clinton presidential campaign, and Halter worked on the Wesley Clark presidential campaign, and both Clinton and Clark backed Lincoln.

    Parent
    No-show wins SC Dem. Senate primary (none / 0) (#9)
    by RonK Seattle on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 09:32:47 PM EST
    "No-show" as in no signs, no ads, no website, no fundraising, no appearances - no nothing.

    No job, apparently. . . (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 09:36:03 PM EST


    Parent
    no chance (none / 0) (#14)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:16:18 PM EST


    Parent
    Yup (none / 0) (#17)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:21:59 PM EST
    And against Jim DeMint. . .

    I guess that had to be some price to pay for getting no opposition to Gilibrand.

    Parent

    Go Lakers (none / 0) (#20)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:34:04 PM EST
    Up by 4, 2:17 left

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