Lost Decade Or Double Dip?

The government lowered its estimate of 1st quarter GDP growth:

The government lowered its estimate of how much the economy grew in the first quarter of the year, noting that consumers spent less than it previously thought.Gross domestic product rose by an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the January-to-March period, the Commerce Department said Friday. That was less than the 3 percent estimate for the quarter that the government released last month. It was also much slower than the 5.6 percent pace in the previous quarter.

[. . . Going forward . . .] inventory restocking will provide less of a boost to GDP. Another factor inhibiting growth will be a reduction in government spending. The impact of the federal stimulus program is expected to fade toward the end of the year. Economists also warn that state and local governments are likely to rein in spending and raise taxes as they struggle to close budget gaps. That was apparent in the latest GDP estimate, which showed state and local governments reducing their outlays by about 4 percent.

Will we have a second dip? Krugman thinks we will have a lost decade:

I expected something like this[.] It’s part of the reason I was so anxious to see Obama go for the maximum stimulus possible: it seemed obvious that he would have only one shot. And because that shot wasn’t big enough, I really do think we’re looking at a lost decade.

I think the seriousness of our economic situation is simply not appreciated in Washington, D.C. Perhaps in November they will understand.

Speaking for me only

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    It is possible to have both (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 11:35:14 AM EST
    I think we will experience another dip and a lost decade.

    Doomed to repeat it (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by ruffian on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 12:05:00 PM EST
    Until I got to the end of your second quote I thought it must have been one of the Correntians. Really sad how much this applies to today - and I'm usually screaming about overuse of historical references. When the shoe fits, however....

    If you think it's not appreciated in Washington, (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by steviez314 on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 12:14:01 PM EST
    how would you describe the EU's reaction?

    It's orders of magnitude worse.  Their GDP is equal to ours, and they are quite capable of bringing down the whole shebang by themselves no matter what we do.

    They want to freeload on our deficit, imports, and defense spending.  And they won't even give us a ref call at the WC.

    lol (none / 0) (#7)
    by jimakaPPJ on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 12:45:05 PM EST
    A good'un.

    Not just a lost decade (5.00 / 6) (#10)
    by robotalk on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 01:58:41 PM EST
    because this assumes the neo cons will be neutral during this period. This is a misassumption.  Given our state of deregulation, I fear the Neo cons will take advantage of stagnation and make life very bad for the poor, working and middle class.

    They will (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 02:05:33 PM EST
    This will look a lot like the Great Depression but don't get carried away because this is a Recession damn it....even if it is a ten year one :)  I will probably be okay though cuz I'm on the military dole and that one is magic with NeoCons. I always knew I would be okay.  I'm a worthless elite though because I just can't stop fighting for those who won't be okay, and most of them....even liberal ones, will fight for and vote against their best interests.  It isn't just the Republican base that's crazy enough to do that :)

    It used to be that more of the people (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by ruffian on Sat Jun 26, 2010 at 06:42:16 AM EST
    that were not worried about themselves felt an obligation to help those less fortunate. Now people like you are the exception rather than the rule. They built a political philosophy that let's them feel morally superior about it too. I don't want to be around to see it, but when the bottom falls out, everybody falls.

    But, but (none / 0) (#4)
    by hookfan on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 12:07:07 PM EST
    the recession is over! Larry and Timmy said so. and Obama has brought us back from the brink. and there's green shoots everywhere! And the rich have profited very well:
          Any questions?
    Fri, 06/25/2010 - 8:24am -- lambert

    World's rich got richer amid '09 recession (and by "'09 recession," Reuters must mean the 2007-???? Depression):

        In North America, the ranks of the rich rose 17 percent and their wealth grew 18 percent to $10.7 trillion.

    So, it couldn't be more clear, could it? (from Correntewire.com)
       Apparently, the economy Larry and Timmy were referring too, isn't the economy in which most of us live. So, lost decade for whom?

    Darn! (none / 0) (#5)
    by hookfan on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 12:13:46 PM EST
    You say it much better than I.

    Create an overly generous floor... (none / 0) (#8)
    by Dadler on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 01:37:59 PM EST
    ...that requires work -- provided by the government if the private sector can't provide it -- while at the same time maintaining the possibility of wealth through achievement, invention, etc., and A LOT of our economic problems and divisions would largely be mitigated. It's all a confidence game, and right now that game is rigged.

    We simply can't figure out, as most of our parents attempted to teach us, how to properly share.

    We're sorely confused: (none / 0) (#9)
    by jondee on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 01:49:24 PM EST
    the most popular book in the country basically says sharing is a good thing, and the second most popular book says it promotes an infantile slave mentality and the elevation of the weak and inferior.

    There is a golden mean (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 02:01:19 PM EST
    I should probably say could be.  You must have competition though, we have rigged protected monopolies all over the place.  There must be regulation as well that protects living things.  I watched that damned documentary 'Gasland'.  Cheney and buddies opened up BLM land all over for natural gas drilling and we can't even figure out what chemicals they are using because that is "proprietary" knowledge.  They are killing living things all over the place and too many people to count can set their drinking water on fire now, but we can't regulate them because we don't even know what they are doing and using and legally we aren't allowed to know?  It is crazy!  Completely crazy!

    and back on the hill (none / 0) (#11)
    by CST on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 02:00:49 PM EST
    the deficit hawks have killed jobless benefits for $1 million people.  Link

    Beautiful (none / 0) (#14)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 02:06:09 PM EST
    It's just gorgeous

    I wonder (none / 0) (#15)
    by jbindc on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 02:08:16 PM EST
    How many of them will be jobless come January?

    to be replaced (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by CST on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 02:11:08 PM EST
    with people who rally against greater stimulus most likely.

    Sometimes I really don't understand people...


    Easy (none / 0) (#17)
    by jbindc on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 02:27:40 PM EST
    It's called "If it doesn't affect me, and it's good for my campaign contributors (companies who won't have to continue paying into unemployment coffers), then it must be good policy."

    I still think members of Congress should have to live on minimum wage and we could set up dorms for them to live here in DC, since they have households in their districts.  They would be allotted so much travel, so they could go back to their districts, and that would be about it.


    oh i understand the pols (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by CST on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 02:36:48 PM EST
    what do they care?  They're sitting pretty on fortunes.

    I don't understand the people who continue to vote against their own economic self interest.

    The deficit "concern trolls" will be replaced with deficit "hawks".  Because the American people will vote them into office.


    Most likely (none / 0) (#20)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 03:15:15 PM EST
    Everybody will be sitting around hurting, therefore everyone must hurt with them....even everyone but the elite will already be.  Not enough watching of documentaries.  Elizabeth Warren isn't sexy enough.  Perhaps if we all chipped in and got her a bustier and propped her girls up or something.

    it's all (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by CST on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 03:24:45 PM EST
    the mexicans fault

    It has to be Europe....... (none / 0) (#23)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 03:29:43 PM EST
    Not the old Europe.....the new Europe.  Europe today China tomorrow :)

    As long as (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by jbindc on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 03:34:45 PM EST
    it isn't Geithner or Larry Summers in a bustier....

    I don't want to see Larry in one (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 03:38:15 PM EST
    There are just some things human beings should not be subjected to.  But if we get one on Timmy I want one with garters :)

    We aren't chipping in for bustiers though (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 03:44:41 PM EST
    to improve anyone's marketability who is part of this administration until they have appeared in a factually based documentary.  Those are the rules.

    This is also obviously (none / 0) (#18)
    by jondee on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 02:32:33 PM EST
    about hitting (and hurting) the people where they live and then turning it into a political coup by using the wingnut noise machine to blame the suffering on the other party.

    Why did Reid dismiss out of hand (none / 0) (#27)
    by BTAL on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 06:07:59 PM EST
    the proposal to pay for the extenders with un-committed out-year stimulus monies?

    Budget neutral and according to the purpose of the stimulus, help the states, keep unemployment below 8% and help with higher than normal UI payments.

    There is stimulus money that is not committed to any projects but is being held for some magic future date.

    The Dems could have passed this easily if they would have just used the money they already have available.


    I missed a "though" in there (none / 0) (#21)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 03:16:14 PM EST
    Even though

    Lost Decade + Peak Oil===??? (none / 0) (#28)
    by observed on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 06:16:44 PM EST
    Resource problems and global warming mean we are facing civilization imperiling threats.
    A few years of high unemployment is not the worst that can happen, at all!

    HOPEfully I'll continue to be wrong ... (none / 0) (#29)
    by seabos84 on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 11:01:59 PM EST
    when Raygun & his christo-fascists were elected 30 years ago, when I was 20, I really expected a Blade Runner / Mad Max world.

    Billions of people don't have clean water, sewage, reliable food - and we're all pre-occupied with the Lost NBA NFL futball NASCAR Surviving American Dancer. How long can appx 5% of the globe's population in north america, and another 5% or more in the EU, and a few more % in a few other industrialized nations - how long to we all get to get 50 or 80% of the world's resources for Anime Soccer conferences?


    I don't know what the hell keeps things going, other than tens of millions show up everyday and run the buses and spend money.

    it sure as hell ain't the "leadership" we're subjected to.