Latest Poll: Bennet, Buck in Dead Heat, Tancredo Behind

A new poll from the Denver Post and 9News have Sen. Michael Bennet and challenger Ken Buck in a dead heat. Three weeks ago, Buck was leading by five points.

In the Governor's race, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper has a good lead on Tom Tancredo. The poll shows he's got more support than Tancredo and the Republican candidate, Dan Maes, combined. Results here.

Tancredo is ratcheting up the ads against both Maes and Hickenlooper. [More...]

Tancredo's campaign spent about $60,000 on the ads, which are airing more than a dozen times a day on some rural radio stations and some television stations.

If Maes, drops out this week, as Team Tancredo is asking him to do, will it help either Tancredo or Ken Buck? I doubt it will help enough for Tancredo, but if it causes more Republicans to vote, it could be a problem for Bennet.

This election will be close. Democrats really need to get out and vote.

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    In Bucks mind (4.00 / 0) (#15)
    by kdm251 on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 12:05:50 AM EST
    Female victims of rape and incest should probably be jailed for not fighting back hard enough.

    I really don't see how Maes is any crazier than Buck, and Tancredo is all about hating people with brown skin.  The GOP really has some winners in Colorado.  I can't wait to see a gelatinous tub of goo named Mike May get the nomination for governor in 2014

    Why would (none / 0) (#1)
    by Ga6thDem on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 04:44:24 PM EST
    more Republicans vote if Maes drops out? I would think it would cause less to vote if anything.

    because some won't (none / 0) (#4)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:00:15 PM EST
    vote for Maes but would feel bad about voting for an Independent rather than the Republican. If Maes drops out, Tancredo becomes the de facto Republican.

    Republicans have a real dilemma (none / 0) (#5)
    by christinep on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:03:17 PM EST
    in the CO gubernatorial race where they are more than conflicted about "deserting" their party to vote for the person who many of them view as putting their party in a divided situation--T. Tancredo. Many straightline Republicans are having trouble making that decision. (For the reasons why they might not be able to support D. Maes, suffice to say that the Denver Post termed his candidacy inappropriate, unsupportable, etc. and called for him to drop out on two occasions. There is a history of apparent dishonesty in Maes past...that is putting it mildly.)  So...oft times when people are conflicted as a number of CO Republicans are experiencing now, they might not get to the polls.  You know, enthusiasm dampens, lethargy sets in.  Of course, if Maes fails to capture at least 10% of the vote, the Republican party risks, by law, losing majority party status for the next election since the gubernatorial race is determinative of status.  Think about 2012 and the monetary ramifications and location & identification on the ballot ramifications of that.

    While the political me is tempted to make a sneering laugh....  Well, I've wondered if the CW about conflicted voters might play out differently. Namely: what if Repubs in the voting booth cast their vote for Dem Hickenlooper and then these normally party-loyal voters feel guilty, then cast a quick vote on the next line for Republican Buck?  In this case, I'm really rooting for the Conventional Wisdom that the conflicted ones stay home. (Some evidence to date is found in the return rate of Republican mail-in ballots, since they are running a bit behind the Dems returned ballots to date.)


    Didn't Republicans (none / 0) (#12)
    by MKS on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:41:34 PM EST
    turn in more advance ballots in 2008 than Democrats?

    I did some phone calls to Colorado in '08 and somehow remember that to be the case.


    I believe so (none / 0) (#13)
    by christinep on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:53:45 PM EST
    That is usually the case. But, I can't remember the ratio.

    Well (none / 0) (#14)
    by Ga6thDem on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 06:16:13 PM EST
    my thinking is pretty close to conventional wisdom on this one. I would think that Maes dropping out would make GOP turnout lower. I mean if they can't at least vote for Maes to keep the GOP on the ballot why show up unless you're only interested in voting against the D. I can't imagine Tancredo's base would expand by much if Maes dropped out because you would have to consider the fact that a good number of people were voting for him just to keep the GOP on the ballot

    Some of the best ads (none / 0) (#2)
    by christinep on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 04:46:35 PM EST
    against Ken Buck in recent days are his foot-in-mouth comments of the past week. They include: The fiasco of his performance on last week's Meet The Presss when he compared gays to alcoholics; his comment mid-week that he agreed with very conservative Sen. Inhofe that "global warming is a hoax" (note: Buck went beyond the usual conservative claims that "warming may exist, but that it stems from natural--not manmade--causes; he went directly to denying well-understood scientific data in Colorado, a state with a historically strong & demonstrated environmental interest.); then, his strange refusal to answer question put to him on a televised debate last night about whether he still opposed allowing abortion in cases of rape and/or incest as well as his evasion in responding to another question about who would be jailed in the event of an abortion (another note: Buck was pressed three times until he finally appeared to acknowledge that he opposed abortion in all instances; and, as to criminal prosecution potential, he said only that "it wouldn't happen soon.")

    Yep, the race in our Colorado sure is interesting. It is becoming more & more apparent that if Senator Michael Bennet should win--and, the trajectory is finally starting to look much more like that might happen even as the electorate might be prepared to vote Republican in other State races--we might have to send a Thank You note to the frightening Ken Buck.

    My favorite ad... (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:12:26 PM EST
    ...is the new GOTV one starring the Bennet girls.  Cute and very refreshing.  I think that will resonate with voters--those who haven't already mailed in their ballots--after all the crap that's been out there.  

    Bush, Sr.'s only misstep (none / 0) (#7)
    by MKS on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:22:46 PM EST
    during his campaign in 1988 against Dukakis was saying during a debate that the criminal penalties for abortion "would need to be worked out" leaving the impression that the women could go to jail.....He quickly clarified that the woman would never go to jail but maybe the doctor would--the standarde answer nowadays.

    That Buck messed up here is good news....and maybe he really does believe the woman should go to jail--that would explain his refusal to prosecute the rape case of the woman who was asking for it.


    Just got a robo call... (none / 0) (#8)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:23:55 PM EST
    ...from Tommy the Tanc invited me to a meet n' greet at the Tavern Wash Park tomorrow.  

    Wow--aim high Tommy, you and all 150 of your supporters!

    Mahalo for passing along the (none / 0) (#9)
    by MKS on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:24:16 PM EST
    good news.

    Hawaii electing Republicans is sacreligious.....a horro beyond all decency.

    Very cool news from Colorado! (none / 0) (#10)
    by MKS on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:25:28 PM EST
    Buck and Tancredo are hideous....

    You're feeling good about this? (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:32:00 PM EST
    Most other public polls have this down as a pretty close race, but I'm not confident about the quality of the polling in Hawaii.