Obama's Healthcare Tuesday Speech - the contents

Here's what's going to happen come Tuesday.  This is my naked prediction, i.e., independent of any outside information.  I've been sitting on this for two days, more out of laziness in putting it on the screen than anything else.

And those of you who remember these things, will remember I am usually pretty darn good at my predictions being right.

What Obama has done by holding back and letting Congress dither is to get them, and the public, in the mood where they want Daddy to step in and say "this is the way it's going to be."  It's a corollary of the way that in, say, a jury room, the last guy to speak is the one whose position wins out.  Put on an authoritative voice, and that's that.

So, come Tuesday, Daddy shows up to end the discussion.  He's going to tell everyone that he appreciates what they did and all their hard work, and what he thinks is the best resolution is (a), (b) and ©.  His list will not include a public option, though he will likely couch it in such a way that there is something which looks like a public option but it (a) has a "Trigger" (the conditions for activating it, we know, will never be met) and (b) will sound like it satisfies the conditions that the progressives, led by FDL & Co., have put on the Progressive Caucus' pledges, at least enough that they can vote for it and avoid an obvious contradiction.

In a word, Obama's plan is going to look good, but be a bunch of kabuki.  The main beneficiary will be the insurance industry.

Then, Obama's position will be whipped as a loyalty test - not to the law, good policy, common sense, or anything save the person of Obama.  In other words, more of the same ego-driven - as opposed to principle-driven - image politics we saw in the campaign.  Anyone who disagrees with the Obama bill (which, BTW, I'm sure he's had drafted for months and sitting in a can on the shelf in the WH)  will be castigated as being all the nasty names that were hurled at non-Obamabots last year.

And everyone gets sold a bill of goods which only bails out the insurance industry but without dipping into tax revenues.

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