The Polls - 9/30

DKos/R2000 has Obama up 10, 51-41. Ras has Obama up 6, 51-45. Gallup has Obama up 6, 49-43. Hotline has Obama up 6, 47-41. Even Battleground has Obama up 2, after stubbornly having McCain ahead for the past 2 weeks.

With just over 30 days to go, unless McCain changes the game, the election is over.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< Looking For A New FDR | Electoral Map Swing State Update >
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    Larry's late. (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by oculus on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:44:17 PM EST

    TEN. I'll help say it for him. (none / 0) (#24)
    by Teresa on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:30:05 PM EST
    Personally, I expect it to get closer before the election as they usually do, but I could also see this being a total blowout. It's not a good time to be a Republican.

    I won't believe it is over... (5.00 / 3) (#11)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:59:35 PM EST
    ...until I wake up on 11/5 and Obama is the new President elect.  That would be a wonderful day- early birthday present.  

    Yeah.... (none / 0) (#26)
    by kdog on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:31:08 PM EST
    too many variables to call it a lock.

    Will the votes be counted accurately?

    Will Uncle Sam start another war?

    And if the market totally bottoms out, maybe the stars will align and Nader will pull off the upset of the millenia:)  


    I think we can recognize that the GOP (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:08:57 PM EST
    is facing a bloodbath when they have to run ads like this one in Mississippi.

    I hope they got some sort of discount (none / 0) (#17)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:16:48 PM EST
    on that ad.

    that was (none / 0) (#29)
    by bramdizle on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:37:26 PM EST
    pretty f-ing funny. going for the price is right audience

    The bigoted price is right audience (none / 0) (#32)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:40:25 PM EST
    as they say, it's the process stupid! (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Yotin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:24:00 PM EST
    In business, it's about the process, process, process.

    The collapse of the financial market can be traced to failure to employ or follow process. Existing due process of oversight was not followed. And financial institution themselves didn't follow their age-old and proven process of screening the credit worthiness of their borrowers.

    And now that it has collapsed, I'm amazed at the vitriol and denigration of McCain's action for injecting himself in the process. I believe senators and congressmen are being paid to be part of the process in Congress. For example, when a leader is out of the country and calamity has befallen the country, it's the leader's job to immediately return home and personally get involved in solving the problem and take accountability. In this crisis, that's just what McCain has done.

    This is the most serious problem facing the country and whatever happens is certain to be historic. Unless there's a more serious event, there's nothing that could be so important to get in the way. McCain's has chosen to be part of history in the making. Obama, however, has characterized it as a political stunt. There is nothing more hypocritical than for Obama to say his campaign is history in the making and for you to join in and, then say in the same breath, call me when you need me as history of America is being written and he can't be part of it.

    In times of crises, there's nothing more out-of-touch and aloof than to second guess the good intention of another for dropping everything in order to take part in a process for which he was elected for. Obama and the democratic leadership are guilty of injecting presidential politics in times of national crisis.

    Again, it's not about the result. It's the process, process, process. If the process is followed, the best result is not guaranteed, but it's the most likely outcome.

    I have to disagree (none / 0) (#34)
    by Howard Zinn on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:50:00 PM EST
    When campaigning, there's no avoiding the political side of governance, as we've seen.  Obama had been working on the crisis behind the scenes, and even when McCain got to DC, pretty much all he did was get on the phone with the actual decision makers.  He thought he could save the day in DC when in fact he complicated things greatly.  McCain lauded this bill as an example of his ability to reach across the aisle before his own party rejected it.  I fail to see how you see him as effective in any way.

    McCain has been "a part of history in the making" -- the beginning of the end of his candidacy, IMO.

    But don't take my word for it: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/30/bailout.candidates/index.html


    my point was... (none / 0) (#52)
    by Yotin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 09:19:46 PM EST
    not about the result. Obama is likely to be the next president. if his own party supports him in a way that he couldn't do wrong, who's going to keep him honest?
    Certainly, there are risks that one won't succeed in his efforts, no matter how well meaning they are. McCain took that risk. That was his job as a Senator. And what's the motive to second guess his intentions in a time of national crisis?

    It's basically in the bag. Now would be the (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by tigercourse on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:26:52 PM EST
    time for Obama to start worrying about what shape the country will be in when his administration starts. Start pressuring your supporters to do the right thing on Thursady Mr. soon to be President.

    Game Changers (1.00 / 1) (#45)
    by chopper on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:46:29 PM EST
    First, they say Rezko has started talking.  He may have a lot to say about Obama's Chicago dealings. But, that could come out after the election.

    Second, with Obama's supporter, Sen. Dodd, trying to get some of the bailout billions for ACORN, some of that truth may come out. That was one thing that stalled the bailout bill.

    Repubs know that ACORN and Obama are closely tied. ACORN's tactics helped him win in Chicago and now they're doing it nationwide.  

    Some have been convicted of election fraud. There's a recent article about Michigan and ACORN registering dead people, multiple registrations, etc.  

    There's also a money laundering case going on with Obama and ACORN.

    Third, that lawsuit is moving along about whether Obama is eligible to be prez because of where he was born, his real name, and his citizenship.  He refuses to produce his original birth certificate and passport.

    Fourth, the truth is starting to surface about his long and close ties to Ayers, the terrorist bomber of American sites and their connection with Annenberg.

    Fifth, his connection to this financial crisis may be revealed in the media - his ties to those CEOs involved and he being the person who accepted the most money from the lobbyists to stall McCain's reform bill and let the corruption continue.

    Who knows what else could come up.

    I don't have links, just google Obama, ACORN, election fraud, money laundering.


    If memory serves me (none / 0) (#47)
    by CDN Ctzn on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:14:21 PM EST
    it was inferred by Air America, et al, during the Scooter Libby trial that the reason U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald was chosen to investigate Libby was because of his record of incompetance in not persuing investigations far enough. It was suggested that had another prosecutor been appointed then ties directly implicating Cheney in the Plame investigation would have been uncovered. So I question the idea of Fitzgerald running a tight ship that doesn't leak!

    That's not right (none / 0) (#49)
    by Steve M on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:19:33 PM EST
    in fact, one of the cases that made Fitzgerald famous was the Illinois scandal where he started off by prosecuting small-time offenders and methodically worked his way up the chain until he ultimately managed to send the Governor of Illinois to prison.  So Fitzgerald doesn't have anything like the reputation you describe.

    No way. (none / 0) (#30)
    by indy in sc on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:37:32 PM EST
    Now is the time to worry about winning the election on November 4.  Of course he can and should be thinking behind the scenes about what his administration would look like and what his priorities will be for his first 100 days in office.  It won't be good if he makes any public indications of planning for his administration when he hasn't won the election.

    I realize you're speaking specifically about the bailout/recovery plan--and there I agree with you 100% that he needs to pressure congress people to do what needs to be done--but I think that's separate from his acting as if this is "in the bag" in other ways.


    Oh you're right that he shouldn't start (none / 0) (#33)
    by tigercourse on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:43:29 PM EST
    acting like the President in waiting. But I don't think being on top of the market problem can hurt him.

    Too Late (none / 0) (#48)
    by CDN Ctzn on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:15:59 PM EST
    Obama started acting like the President in waiting long before the Primaries were even over.

    I'm on board ... (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by Howard Zinn on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:36:26 PM EST
    at least most of me.  At this point, I can't see McCain being able to create a game-changing moment.  It would smack of the same sort of "heroics" he's been exploiting the past week.  It would look desperate.

    Obama gets to play the basic game he played against Hillary: zone defense.  Oh he'll keep the jabs there and, hopefully, constantly remind people what it would be like to turn on the TV and see the same faces with the same agendas in Washington for the next 4 years.  

    He has to stay assertive about their differences, but the impetus is off for Obama to create a game changer.

    The only thing that could derail Obama at this point is something crazy coming at him from the outside.  Good thing Rev. Wright came and went in the primary, though I'm sure we all expect some sort of rehash a week or so before election day.

    I used to think the same thing for McCain: something crazy that's out of his control would have to happen for him to have a chance.  Now though I think Obama is in a much better position to respond to international crises after his solid demeanor during the financial crisis and to a lesser extent his performance in the foreign policy questions in the debate.

    Barring armaggedon, I think we coast.

    Is this the historian Zinn? (none / 0) (#50)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:31:44 PM EST
    he's the inspiration for my avatar :-) (none / 0) (#54)
    by Howard Zinn on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 10:45:43 PM EST
    Palin/Biden debate (none / 0) (#2)
    by Faust on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:31:50 PM EST
    is going to be a total game changer.

    In McCain's favor? (none / 0) (#6)
    by oculus on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:34:28 PM EST
    Let's hope not. (none / 0) (#7)
    by scribe on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:37:45 PM EST
    I'm halfway expecting McCain to pop out from behind the curtain mid-debate to interrupt and tell her (in the way he did in their joint interview with Couric) what to say.

    The problem is expectations for her have been so lowered that, so long as she does not mess herself, The Villagers will count it as successful.


    I disagree (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:25:21 PM EST
    the expectations game works when you lower them a little in order to give your candidate an edge.

    In this case they have allowed a narrative that Sarah Palin is almost a clinical idiot to be established.

    So any gaffes she makes will simply affirm that narrative.  

    She will now need to really ace the debate.

    Biden must stay away from personal stuff.  That is her wheelhouse and where she can spin the story.

    Keep it on the issues and make her defend her positions.


    if she gets to make some free (none / 0) (#25)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:30:44 PM EST
    no charges gaffes she'll almost be on equal footing with Biden :)  Nobody gaffes with all of us expecting him to like Biden.

    Nice point! nt (none / 0) (#38)
    by jpete on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:59:26 PM EST
    NYT blog has Bill (none / 0) (#8)
    by oculus on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:39:56 PM EST
    Clinton's advice on how Biden debate Palin.  Pretty good.  

    Can you give us a link for that? (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Demi Moaned on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:33:20 PM EST
    I'd like to read it.

    Oops. Wrong paper. (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by oculus on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:52:11 PM EST
    It's possible (none / 0) (#23)
    by lentinel on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:29:21 PM EST
    Biden is such an unattractive candidate, and garbles sentences as majestically as Palin. She could emerge as more personable and sympathetic. At least a tie.

    Obviously, Biden has some sort of credentials, but what has he done? He went around supporting the invasion of Iraq. He produced draconian legislation. Jeralyn even called him a "deal breaker" for her. (She since has "resolved" her issues with him, but others might not have.)

    Bottom line: I think the Biden/Palin debate might wind up putting the polls back to even. And then it will be up to Obama to make it through on his own.


    If those, shall we say, "flip flops" (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:34:20 PM EST
    are seriously explored by Ifill and the question editors, Biden will look like a bloody fool.

    It's intersting that McCain has withheld all fire on Biden.  Something's very odd about that silence.

    There's truly a wealth of oddball policy emanating from Biden.


    Battleground says (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:31:59 PM EST
    that they finally stopped weighting for party ID yesterday.

    McCain looks like toast right now.

    Or unless the game (none / 0) (#4)
    by BernieO on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:32:34 PM EST
    changes. If the economic crisis dies down and a national security crisis comes up then who knows?

    If a national security crisis pops up (none / 0) (#15)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:14:30 PM EST
    I don't see that automatically working in McCain's favor.  Obviously his backing of Dubya's war on terror failed, our troop strength and readiness is terribly terribly depleted, that could end up not being a "good thing" for McCain.  Meanwhile Obama is fine with going Special Ops into Pakistan univited to whoop on someone.

    I say "uncle." (none / 0) (#5)
    by oculus on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:33:02 PM EST
    Looks like the majority of those polled did think Obama looked Presidential.  

    ah, i remember it well: (none / 0) (#13)
    by cpinva on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:01:12 PM EST
    Dewey beats Truman!

    last time i checked, the polls don't actually close until the evening of nov. 4th. nothing is "over" yet.

    i believe those polls as far as i can throw them, and i'm feeling mighty damn weak today.

    Thanks for the update (none / 0) (#16)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:16:28 PM EST
    I would have been pretty upset had I gone to the polls on the 7th and found out that they closed the previous Saturday.  

    Heh (none / 0) (#18)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:17:30 PM EST
    My bad.  Calender let me down.

    When snark goes bad.


    and you would have been, (none / 0) (#43)
    by cpinva on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:23:18 PM EST
    I would have been pretty upset had I gone to the polls on the 7th and found out that they closed the previous Saturday.

    as usual, stupid. you can fix a lot of things flyerhawk, but you just can't fix stupid.


    Throwing (none / 0) (#19)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:18:58 PM EST
    out the two outliers, it looks like Obama by six right now.

    Unless those polled are (none / 0) (#39)
    by jpete on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:01:06 PM EST
    disguising their racism by saying "Obama".

    Of course (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:16:57 PM EST
    that's always a possibility.

    Wouldn't help (none / 0) (#31)
    by Demi Moaned on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 01:37:33 PM EST
    Mr. McCain can't repudiate his choice for running mate. ...

    Only Ms. Palin can save Mr. McCain, her party and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

    And no one would believe she wasn't pushed out.

    Yup. It's Obama's to lose. (none / 0) (#36)
    by votermom on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:02:05 PM EST
    I'm guessing that explains his relative hands-off about current events. As long as he avoids any major mistakes he will coast to victory. So he's avoiding the chance of making mistakes.

    hm (none / 0) (#37)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:55:24 PM EST
    So far so good.

    This made me chuckle ... (none / 0) (#41)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 03:33:00 PM EST
    McCain might suspend campaign again.


    No, he won't suspend again, it will just LOOK LIKE he's suspended.