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Another Look at Colorado Voter Stats

Two weeks ago I did a preliminary assessment of Colorado voters, trying to assess the impact of the state's evangelical voters. I began with the 2004 presidential results. There were 2.1 million voters and Bush won by 100,000 votes. We have 9 electoral votes.

The Colorado Secretary of State has these voter registration numbers (pdf) by county, current as of September 2. There are 3 million registered voters in the state.

Denver has the largest number, 390k. Jefferson County (Golden, Coors country) now has more than El Paso (Colorado Springs.) Jeffco has 352k to El Paso's 347k. The counties with the most registered voters after the top three are: Arapahoe (very suburban) with 319k, Boulder and Adams with 205k each, followed by Larimer (Northern Colorado) with 200k, and Douglas (just north of Colorado Springs and equally as conservative)with 172k.

Here's where it gets tricky: There are huge numbers of unaffiliated voters.

  • Dems 955k
  • Republicans 1029k
  • Unaffiliated 1022k

In the largest counties, the numbers are:

  • Denver 182k Dem, 71k Rep., 135k Unaffil.
  • El Paso 75kD, 158kR, 113kU
  • Jefferson 110kD, 124kR, 117kU,
  • Arapaahoe: 105kD, 110kR, 103U
  • Boulder 83kD, 42kR, 78kU
  • Adams 73kD, 55kR, 76kU
  • Larimer 55kD, 72kR,71kU
  • Douglas 36kD, 84R, 52kU

In addition to reaching out to unaffiliated voters, Team Obama is making a huge push to register new voters and get out the vote.

Take Aspen, in Pitkin County, which has almost 13,000 voters, 5,600 of whom are unaffiliated. 4,200 are Dems and 2,600 are Republicans. The Aspen Daily News reports today:

The overwhelmingly Democratic-voting Pitkin County — where Democratic candidate John Kerry received more than twice as many votes as President George W. Bush in 2004 — is being targeted as a voting sector that can put Obama over the top for Colorado’s nine electoral votes. Because any vote from this area is most likely a vote for Obama, his local boosters are focused primarily on registering as many locals as they can.

“One of the fallacies about Pitkin County is that people don’t need to go vote for a Democrat because everybody is voting for them anyway,” said Blanca O’Leary, co-chair of the county’s Democratic party. “What we need to do is make sure Pitkin County over-performs.”

The strategy worked in a local race in 2006:

Aspen Mayor Mick Ireland, an Obama supporter, cited the 2006 election of state Sen. Gail Schwartz as proof that this supercharged Pitkin County strategy works. In that contest, Schwartz pulled 82 percent of the Pitkin County vote after a similar local voter registration push. Ireland said the Pitkin County vote overrode more conservative sections of the district and propelled Schwartz’s narrow victory over Republican incumbent Lewis Entz. “We totally outweighed Delta County,” Ireland said.

As to the effort being expended:

These local Obama volunteers have been hitting the streets twice every week, on Saturday mornings and Wednesday afternoons, usually with a team of eight to a dozen. A smaller squad in Basalt does the same.

This weekend, Colorado Obama volunteers were matched up in a contest with those in Virginia in which the canvasser from those two states who knocks on the most doors gets to meet the candidate himself.

Nor is Obama overlooking the redder portions of the Western Slope:

Last week also saw Obama’s top adviser on veterans’ issues holding a forum in Grand Junction, Sen. Ken Salazar telling Colorado reporters in a conference call that Obama “as president will stand up for rural Colorado,” and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson touring Colorado addressing concerns of Latino voters and registering people to vote.

Obama is also pushing early voting which begins October 20 in Colorado.

[L]ocal Obama supporters are taking over Paepcke Park on Oct. 19 to push a less traditional campaign strategy: encouraging early voting..... They are worried that this year’s extra-long ballot in Pitkin County will cause extra-long lines at voting booths that might turn some people away on Election Day. Between local, state and national items, the ballot here is expected to have more than 30 questions and contests for voters to decide.

Obama has 32 campaign offices in Colorado. Nationally, he has 330 offices to McCain's 100.

Obama’s 50-state web of local offices is fueled by what is believed to be the largest field operation in American political history. And even veteran politicos are taken aback by the magnitude of his standing volunteer army.

“This is the best organized campaign I’ve seen,” said [Blanca]O’Leary, the county Democratic co-chair. “And I’ve been doing this forever.”

So, can Obama's get out the vote effort generate enough new voters to cancel out the smaller, largely Republican counties? And is there any way to predict which way the unaffiliated voters in the big counties will go?

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  • Display: Sort:
    People have been out (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Jjc2008 on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 08:57:15 PM EST
    registering voters here in conservative El Paso county.  However, this county can be deceiving on the national level.  And the kids at Colorado College are very hyped and active this year.  

    I was walking today and I saw this sign on the yard of a person I would have guessed to be republican:  This old white woman is voting for Obama.

    Of the seven houses on my block (on my side), six for sure are going Obama.  And of course the area near the college and downtown is mostly democratic but for the first time in my 30+ years here, the democratic party is really active.

    I think Obama can win Colorado.

    I think he will win... (none / 0) (#22)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 09:17:34 PM EST
    ...the Centennial State.  

    There's been a buzz around about "the ground game" for awhile now and most people seem to be amazed.

    Heck, while I'm at it, I say that Musgrave goes down to Markey this year.
     

    Parent

    Likely, but not a certainty (none / 0) (#40)
    by MaBJ on Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 04:29:28 AM EST
    Primarily due to the district she represents. It is extremely conservative and they love her there. She's "one of them" (born and raised) and that has lots of street cred in this district. She's in a tough fight - more than she has been in a number of years. It could also hurt her that Wayne Allard (her bff) isn't around anymore and thus not campaigning for her this year, as he has done in the past. Their ideologies are about as close as can be without being related, so...this might actually be her death knell!

    Parent
    Good research (none / 0) (#1)
    by BrassTacks on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 08:34:40 PM EST
    Evangelicals are never as important as we tend to think that they will be.  On the ground democrat organization seems to always be more important.  Our voter drives this year have been fantastic.  Racism won't matter as much as we may fear either.  Most of those jerks don't even vote.

    I find one sentence in this comment. . . (none / 0) (#2)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 08:38:36 PM EST
    to have the ring of truth.  Anyone care to guess which I think it is?

    Parent
    Maybe someone in the Republic party knows (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 08:39:50 PM EST
    The penultimate one? (none / 0) (#5)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 08:42:09 PM EST
    I always like an excuse to use the term "penultimate." :-)

    Parent
    No. . . (none / 0) (#7)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 08:52:42 PM EST
    the modal one.

    Parent
    Penultimate... (none / 0) (#14)
    by CoralGables on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 09:00:00 PM EST
    is one those words that is wonderful to use unless you are running the penultimate lap in a mile race. Then it's a gut wrenching word :)

    To answer the question though, I would lean towards "Our voter drives this year have been fantastic."

    Parent

    Come down south. The majority of the (none / 0) (#15)
    by Teresa on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 09:01:34 PM EST
    people I know still say Democrat Party. My mom moved to a little county a few years ago. She joined the "Women's Democrat Party". That was their official name. :)

    I try to cut them some slack because they vote the right way.

    Parent

    I completely missed. .. (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 09:04:19 PM EST
    the use of the term "Democrat" until andgarden pointed it out below.  I just think the statements are absurd.  I'm happy to have the votes of the Women's Democrat Party.

    Parent
    Me too. When I hear it, I immediately think (none / 0) (#19)
    by Teresa on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 09:07:44 PM EST
    it's either a mean Republican or a southern Democrat.

    Parent
    Guilty as charged! (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by BrassTacks on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 09:32:27 PM EST
    My whole fam-damily have been southern democrats for at least 100 years.  I apologize if I offended anyone but we always called it the democrat party.  I keep forgetting that you all don't do that anymore. Sorry!  

    Parent
    Polls, polls, polls (none / 0) (#4)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 08:42:05 PM EST
    make the pundits--and me--go round. There's supposed to be at least one for CO tomorrow.

    It is possible to fundamentally change the demographic nature of the voting electorate, but I would hate to have to stake my chances on that. And anyway I'm doubtful that it's really so simple in a Presidential election.

    We'll know before Christmas. . .