The Polls - 9/18

The Presidential race may be on the brink of breaking open. Along with CBS NYTimes poll (9/12-16) which has Obama up 5, a new Q poll (9/11-16) has Obama up 4, 49-45, and the Dkos/R2000 tracker (9/15-17) now has Obama up by 6, 49-43. Ras has it tied, 48-48, McCain down 1. Gallup, Obama by 4, 48-44, a 2 point bump for Obama.

After yesterday's Wall Street meltdown, the economy will again dominate the talk of the Nation. That the economy will be the main topic of discussion is good for Democrats and good for Obama, though the events that have made this so are awful for the country (and will present great challenges to a potential Obama Administration.) McCain is being viewed as running for Bush's Third Term. The Palinpalooza is basically over, despite the attempts of some to keep it going.

In 8 days, Obama and McCain meet for the first Presidential debate. It may be make or break for McCain by then.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< Doubts About Palin a Factor in NY Times Poll | Drudge: "The Disco Of Right Wing News Sites" >
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    Thank goodness. (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by rooge04 on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:10:34 AM EST
    I think the economic meltdown really did a number on voters. They've realized what's really at stake and that's the reflection, I think. Palin was fascinating the public, but her star seems to be fading, now that bigger concerns are on the horizon.  

    How frightening the thought of McCain being in charge with what's going on right now.

    I don't want to be too negative about Obama (none / 0) (#19)
    by tigercourse on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:47:10 AM EST
    or Biden, but did you read their various statements about the economy over the last couple days? Utter jibberish. The thought of any of these 4 in power scares me. I hope they hire good advisors.

    You read (none / 0) (#30)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:03:21 AM EST
    statements? I don't think it matters if the statements are jibberish as far a politics go since I hold fast to the belief that hardly anyone reads them. The only thing that makes the news is one sentence out of them if anything at all.

    No gibberish! (none / 0) (#36)
    by Mike H on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:23:50 AM EST
    I read the transcript to one of Obama's recent (like last two days) speeches on the economy, and it wasn't gibberish at all.

    McCain clearly is flubbing on the economy.  Most of the time he essentially is saying "stay the course!" and only when it got REALLY bad did his campaign look for something else to say, and it was about forming a "commission".

    McCain/Palin will NOT solve our country's economic crisis.  Period.  

    Obama/Biden have a shot at it.  At the very least, they are offering something different, and that alone gives it a better shot at working than McCain/Palin's plan, which is "more of the same what got us here".


    Well (none / 0) (#37)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:25:34 AM EST
    the above poster was talking about press releases not speeches.

    The real question is ... (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Robot Porter on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:00:30 AM EST
    can Obama hold onto this bounce caused by the economic crisis, or will it be another one that will fade?

    I mean you can't count on a 500 point drop in Wall Street every week.

    Scratch that, in this economy, maybe you can.

    Either way we must see if this is a secure realignment or more signs of just how squishy the middle is in this election.

    What's the standard? (none / 0) (#46)
    by Chisoxy on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 12:53:30 PM EST
    Give it a week? Well see next Monday if it's legit or people panicking. McCain might still be ahead if not for the economy, that doesnt bode totally well. I'd rather it not take an economic meltdown for Obama to win.

    well (none / 0) (#51)
    by connecticut yankee on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 02:38:33 PM EST
    Obama is back where he was pre-convention.  That he's been generally running ahead is nothing new.  McCain had a good two weeks out of months. Thats the anomoly.

    I'm concerned the media won't want this to (none / 0) (#2)
    by steviez314 on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:15:34 AM EST
    break away, so they may start some pushback (like breathless coverage of Palin's email hack).

    Now is the time for another big Obama story--maybe a Warren Buffett ad, or a Colin Powell endorsement, something to keep the pressure on.

    I agree we're near the tipping point, so it's time for a final push, instead of waiting for this surge to recede a bit.

    True (none / 0) (#3)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:19:33 AM EST
    on yahoo, the economic talk was already fading from their headlines.

    Headlines (none / 0) (#4)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:21:10 AM EST
    on yahoo this morning are stock losses have halted.

    Heh (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:23:11 AM EST
    Since the market is closed in NY until 9:30, that is true.

    Well (none / 0) (#7)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:26:58 AM EST
    I should have said "european". So the story line is kind of starting to be shopped out there is more or less my point.

    The Dow (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:27:44 AM EST
    will tell the tale, shopping notwithstanding.

    Oh, (none / 0) (#10)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:29:25 AM EST
    I know but I just thought it was interesting. Even yesterday, Yahoo had one line on the eoonomy. Lynn de Rothschild got as much ink as Wall Street.

    Well then Yahoo is (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:34:22 AM EST
    out of touch.

    The economy was EVERYWHERE yesterday.

    Sounds like more of a comment on Yahoo than the state of the news and the election to me.


    Heh (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Steve M on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:43:05 AM EST
    You want evidence that the economy is a big deal right now?  George Bush actually cancelled his appearance at a Republican fundraiser to deal with the economic crisis.  This is a guy who could barely manage to cut short his vacation for Katrina!

    Now, whether there will be an additional level of panic in the market because people know Bush is focusing on it, I cannot say.  I actually expect today to be an okay day on Wall Street but the lack of leadership from Bush is a real problem.  I think Sarah Palin has taken more questions about the AIG bailout than Bush has!!


    Well (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:44:19 AM EST
    if you were a Republican would you want Bush out there leading on this issue? I can't imagine they would.

    Course not (none / 0) (#22)
    by Steve M on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:52:06 AM EST
    but imagine FDR refusing to address the nation after Pearl Harbor because he didn't want to hurt downticket candidates.  It's just nuts that if people want guidance about the state of the economy or the decision to bailout AIG, they have to get it from Dana Perino's assistant.

    Credit Gergen (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:53:33 AM EST
    with the same insight last night.

    Gergen and Matthews (none / 0) (#40)
    by MTSINAIMAMA on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 09:27:47 AM EST
    Were hitting Bush pretty hard on this. Matthews went so far to say that this is another "Katrina" moment.

    Well (none / 0) (#24)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:58:20 AM EST
    we don't have any FDR's right now. And I certainly would never put Bush in that category. It seems he nor the party can seem to "un rove" themselves. The odd thing is that even when his father was unpopular he never hid like this.

    They have been (none / 0) (#14)
    by rooge04 on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:38:46 AM EST
    out of touch this whole cycle. Always on the front page is something nonsensical.  I have heard about the economy from absolutely everyone I know.

    heck (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:43:13 AM EST
    everybody I know has been talking about the economy long before this latest incident.

    I'm sorry if I got heated with you yesterday (none / 0) (#5)
    by steviez314 on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:21:20 AM EST
    This election is just driving up my blood pressure.

    This election (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:28:20 AM EST
    stinks. I'm sorry but it's the way it seems to me. It's all about voting "against a candidate" than for one.

    Like every election (5.00 / 3) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:33:31 AM EST
    You act as if this is something new.

    You (none / 0) (#15)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:41:41 AM EST
    know what? It is for me. I've always found a reason to vote FOR a candidate. I might only have one reason or issue but it's still one.

    You are unusual (none / 0) (#20)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:50:32 AM EST
    Really? (none / 0) (#25)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:00:17 AM EST
    Don't you think there are voters out there who want to vote for something? Or maybe you are the opposite of me and always voting against?

    There are a lot of voters (5.00 / 2) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:02:15 AM EST
    that claim to want to vote for something positive but these are the same voters who respond to negative advertising - which they all deplore but which works in every election.

    You may not have gotten this from reading my posts by now, but I have extreme contempt for the electorate.


    Oh (none / 0) (#34)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:10:38 AM EST
    I agree 100% with the negative advertising. People constantly complain about it but it works. They are kind of like soap operas. Everybody says "Oh, I never watch soap operas" but yet they get these great neilsen ratings. LOL!

    It also makes me wonder about polls. Do people tell the pollsters what they think the pollster want to hear?

    No, I never picked up on the contempt for the electorate. I reserve my comtempt for the press. I'm still mad about how they treated Gore in 2000. When I think about how different things in this country could have been, well, perhaps it's better not to think about it. The other day I got a Republican friend of mine to concede that out of the four running in 2000, we ended up with the worst possible one. I guess I can relate to your attitude about the electorate when thinking about that.


    My contempt for the press and (none / 0) (#42)
    by Faust on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 10:09:50 AM EST
    my contempt for the electorate are linked. They are part of a powerful feedback loop. The public demands no substance and the press feeds them their diet of nothing.

    And that's putting it nicely.

    It is however, nothing new. See Plato's Apology.


    I know. (none / 0) (#11)
    by Fabian on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:32:22 AM EST
    I just want a solid, reliable candidate to vote FOR.  Obama seems to be belatedly trending that way.

    Solid and Reliable versus Hype and Hyperbole.  Hype and Hyperbole tend to win every time.  Mostly because the Media wants a story, no matter how flimsy or ridiculous.


    I'll be waiting (none / 0) (#39)
    by WS on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:56:35 AM EST
    for Hillary in 2016.  Right now, Obama is a solid choice.  Like O said, "I may not be your first choice but I'm a good choice."  Thats good enough for me and the country needs to get back on the right track.

    Don't Order the Champagne Just Yet (none / 0) (#21)
    by Doc Rock on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 07:51:08 AM EST
    Only one poll ultimately counts--that's the vote of the electoral college.  Winning the national popularity poll didn't keep Dubya out.  Let's focus on the contrast of Obama-Biden to Bush-Cheny-McCain-Palin on key issues such as economy. Let's avoid the distractors and the savage racists attacks coming and beat the stuffing out of McCain-Palin on issues that matter to voters' self-interests in enough key states to win an electoral majority!

    But I still don't get ... (none / 0) (#27)
    by Demi Moaned on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:01:10 AM EST
    why the war is considered an advantageous issue for McCain.

    Well (none / 0) (#29)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:02:58 AM EST
    the experience issue predominates there.

    And McCain leads ... (none / 0) (#31)
    by Robot Porter on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:03:49 AM EST
    on this issue in polls.

    Yep (none / 0) (#32)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:05:26 AM EST
    Whatever I think could have been done about the issue in this election, no need to nash our heads in to make our point - run on the economy and against Bush's Third Term.

    Just drive that to the finish line. Which is not so far away - 40+ days now.


    I'm feeling a bit better with these new polls (none / 0) (#33)
    by barryluda on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:09:49 AM EST
    Also happy to see that the Intrade Prediction Market, which has been all over the place, has Obama up again 50.7 to 40.0.

    Hit post to soon, McCain's at 48.0 (none / 0) (#35)
    by barryluda on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:11:18 AM EST
    ain't hardly worth beans (none / 0) (#41)
    by wystler on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 10:00:09 AM EST
    sell Clinton short (current bid/ask = 2.7/2.8) ... there's your real money shot

    Heh (none / 0) (#44)
    by Steve M on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 11:10:12 AM EST
    I don't think you can short on Intrade.

    New RAS daily tracking posted a few minutes ago (none / 0) (#38)
    by rdandrea on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 08:39:11 AM EST
    Obama/McCain now tied at 48.

    McCain was +3 just a few days ago.

    Does Ras need to update (none / 0) (#43)
    by Faust on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 10:11:54 AM EST
    his LV model?

    and ras reports that McCain is more trusted on the (none / 0) (#45)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 12:49:33 PM EST

    "As for the political implications, polling conducted last night shows that 47% trust McCain more than Obama on economic issues while 45% trust Obama. "


    I think (none / 0) (#47)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 01:38:49 PM EST
    that might be because of the "total panic" and "hysteria" game people have been playing. When you get scared, it's not suprising that you go immediately to the calming, more experienced candidate.

    doesn't make sense otherwise (none / 0) (#49)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 02:34:16 PM EST
    i can't believe for a minute most americans feel mccain would be better for the economy.

    Me neither. (none / 0) (#50)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 02:37:12 PM EST
    Of course, I think Rasmussen skews slightly GOP just like Kos' poll leans D. So I'm willing to bet that Obama has and advantage but it may be ever so slight.

    guarded optimism (none / 0) (#48)
    by christinep on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 01:55:52 PM EST
    I'm being a bit more cautious than some about the polls mostly in memory of my optimism in the fall of 2004.  I think that the debates will be quite important...in reality or perception. If Obama can retain his crisp, direct, on point answers for those debates, I'll feel a lot better.

    The problem (none / 0) (#52)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 02:40:12 PM EST
    Obama has is not "crisp answers" imo though that is somewhat of a problem. I see his problem as the fact that he lectures the viewers like they are students. It's very annoying and comes off as condescending.

    I agree (none / 0) (#55)
    by jb64 on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 03:31:46 PM EST
    He does come off that way a bit too much.

    I'm actually worried about the debates, I feel like this is where we were in 2000 when everyone assumed that Gore would clean George Bush's clock. And I believe he did, but the media made it out that Bush held his own, because he didn't have anywhere to go but up. All McCain has to do is hang in there and it becomes a wash. With Palin, the expectations are even lower. I feel sorry for Joe Biden because he'll be forced to walk a very fine line between scoring points, and appearing not to be too "condescending" or overtly "sexist" to Palin.

    Find 3 or 4 themes and ram them home in short succinct sound bites. Make the GOP own their failure.


    well (none / 0) (#53)
    by connecticut yankee on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 02:42:03 PM EST
    Kerry rarely had Obama's polling.  That anyone expected Kerry to win at all was surprising.  It narrowed at the end but in general Bush want thumping him.

    eh (none / 0) (#54)
    by connecticut yankee on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 02:42:41 PM EST
    was thumping him...