Poll: CA Voters Oppose Initiative to Ban Gay Marriage

Polls can be wrong and opinions can change between now and November, but results of the latest Field Poll are encouraging:

Californians are likely to uphold the right to gay marriage in the state by voting against a ballot measure that seeks to override a court ruling allowing same-sex unions, poll results showed on Friday.

The Field Poll survey firm found 51 percent of voters oppose the measure, which proposes an amendment to the state's constitution recognizing marriage as only between a man and woman, while 42 percent were in favor.

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    The rule of thumb for California (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by MKS on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 05:54:55 PM EST
    initiatives is that if they do not poll well over 50%, they will fail; support generally goes down over time for most initiatives....

    Most voters here seem to default to the idea of "when in doubt vote it down."

    Field is best California poll (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by MKS on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 05:56:05 PM EST
    MKS -- (none / 0) (#6)
    by Valhalla on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 07:42:58 PM EST
    do you mean Field the best polling outfit on California issues, or best = this poll has the highest spread for the anti-amendment side?

    Field has been considered the best (none / 0) (#8)
    by MKS on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 07:46:52 PM EST
    pollster on California issues and races....

    Yes (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 06:04:11 PM EST
    This poll is excellent news indeed.

    Absolutely (none / 0) (#28)
    by dianem on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 11:12:52 PM EST
    We have become cynical with the initiative process, and tend to go in and vote for the few we believe in and check the "No" box on anything else. Some people just vote "No" on all inititives. This is going to be a very hard sell if the people aren't coming down hard in favor of it - scare ads about gay people destroying "the family" just won't sell in a state with as many openly gay people as we have here. They would actually just annoy people and inspire them to make a special effort to vote "No".

    Nice (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 05:54:11 PM EST
    I'd say it's headed for defeat. I'm beginning to think that I'll live to see DOMA repealed.

    Sigh, that would be fabulous! (none / 0) (#7)
    by Valhalla on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 07:44:12 PM EST
    May I live to see it too, although I'm older than you (I think).

    Everybody. . . (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 08:39:05 PM EST
    is older than andgarden.

    heh (none / 0) (#12)
    by andgarden on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:28:41 PM EST
    Tell my kid sister.

    However, U.S. census for 2010 will (none / 0) (#5)
    by oculus on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 07:25:14 PM EST
    not recognize same sex marriages.  Against federal law, per spokesperson.  Unbelievable.


    There's always the (none / 0) (#10)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 08:40:37 PM EST
    intensity factor to worry about -- that the crazies may come out in force while some supporters may be less intense in their interest.

    My family and I are going to our friends' wedding.  I know they're worried about the antis finding a judge willing to issue an injunction.

    Presidential election, so there will be (none / 0) (#13)
    by andgarden on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:30:36 PM EST
    big turnout. Question is, will everyone vote on this question?

    Well. . . (none / 0) (#14)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:35:59 PM EST
    a huge Obama mania turn-out would probably bode well for the referendum (or rather, I mean poorly).  Of course, Obama's soliciting votes from folks who would probably vote for the referendum as well, but on the whole I imagine his people will be anti-referendum.

    I believe he's come out (I mean, spoken publicly) against the referendum, has he not?  Perhaps he'll go so far as asking his voters to vote against it -- but I'm not holding my breath.


    I personally think that there's a limit (none / 0) (#15)
    by andgarden on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:39:14 PM EST
    to the number of "new voters" you can turnout. Generally speaking, increases and decreases in turnout are even across categories, unless there's some really turnout special election or primary.

    And I expect nothing from Obama on this. Maybe he'll say the right thing in a debate, but there's no way he's going to campaign on "no."


    The youth vote! (none / 0) (#17)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:42:22 PM EST
    The youth vote.  The youth vote.  The youth vote!

    (I understand if you say something often enough, that makes it true).


    It's the wrong state (5.00 / 0) (#25)
    by Steve M on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:22:57 PM EST
    to bring out the Utes.

    Don't forget cell phones! (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:43:25 PM EST
    poll earlier (none / 0) (#26)
    by TimNCGuy on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:23:57 PM EST
    this week sais that two months ago 66% of youth planned to vote this fall.  Now it's just 46%.

    The measure may be ok anyway (none / 0) (#27)
    by Valhalla on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 11:03:22 PM EST
    The poll has age breakdowns:

    18-29 68/25
    30-39 58/34
    40-49 51/42
    50-64 47/46
    65 or older 36/55


    Link... (none / 0) (#29)
    by waldenpond on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 11:40:48 PM EST
    do you remember where you saw that?  I would be interested in seeing how trends are moving.  Indies are pretty disinterested in both candidates right now.

    was reported on ABC News (none / 0) (#32)
    by TimNCGuy on Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 06:45:12 AM EST
    maybe you can find it on their website

    it may have been part (none / 0) (#33)
    by TimNCGuy on Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 07:07:26 AM EST
    of that larger poll  that the Obama camp complained about the way the NYT only reported the bad parts and none of the good parts. not sure.  it was the same poll that reported 50% approved of Obama Iraq withdrawl with timetables and 49% approved of McCain's without timetables

    He wrote a letter to a gay rights advocacy (none / 0) (#16)
    by oculus on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:39:57 PM EST

    Well see (none / 0) (#19)
    by andgarden on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:45:19 PM EST
    I'm leaning on low expectations.

    Probably good. Less disappointment then. (none / 0) (#20)
    by oculus on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:46:30 PM EST
    The letter seemed to undercut that outreach to Evangelicals.  

    Not really (none / 0) (#30)
    by MKS on Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 02:31:41 AM EST
    Outreach to Evangelicals does not mean accepting right wing issues.....

    I hope your confidence is rewarded. (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 01:00:04 PM EST
    Obama does not support same-sex marriage (none / 0) (#22)
    by caseyOR on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:09:48 PM EST
    He is not supporting the referendum. However, on the day the CA Supreme Court announced this decision, Obama stated, once again,  that he believes marriage should be between a man and a woman.

    I'll be surprised if he says or does anything else on this issue.


    His letter to Lambda, something or (none / 0) (#23)
    by oculus on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:11:47 PM EST
    other sd. he supported a no vote on the CA Prop. to amend the CA Constitution.  

    Lets hope this is a poll that actually (none / 0) (#11)
    by kenosharick on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:19:37 PM EST
    holds up. I will be in Calif. for 10 days in August- maybe I will fall in love and get married. That is if I could meet anyone buried in the Hoover Inst. achives 10 hours a day.

    A vampire? (none / 0) (#21)
    by oculus on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:46:53 PM EST
    As a proud dance seeker almost halfway out of the (none / 0) (#24)
    by WillBFair on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:19:00 PM EST
    closet, I have to say. Right on darlings! Or, You go girl! And how about Arnold coming out in strong opposition? That boy gets more like Che Guevara every day.

    Maria keeps saving his keester (none / 0) (#31)
    by MKS on Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 02:32:37 AM EST
    Anti gay marriage must be getting very ho hum (none / 0) (#34)
    by TadNauseam on Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 10:53:00 AM EST
    The trend seems to be heading toward those who are against same sex marriage will be the same crowd as those who support GWB.  And that group seems to always end up being wrong about everything anyway.