Clinton's base, however...

His negatives are as high as hers now. Something tells me he would inspire Repubs to come out and vote against him also. Now Clinton has won favor with some for her spirit and fight along with her clarity on issues that matter.

New young voters are historically unreliable. And so far they haven't learned about voting down ticket. They are not voting for the party, they are voting for Obama, period.

Obama has mainly used his Senate seat to run for President. He is not nearly as progressive as HRC in his approach to policy. And Obama only seems to win when voter turnout is low. (Jeralyn posted on this a while ago.)

First off, there's no positive indication that young Obama voters are going to vote downticket Dem, and results from Texas showed that they were less likely to do so than Clinton voters.

Second, you seem to think that Obama himself won't mobilize Republicans to vote against him. I think its rather likely that he will. Never underestimate the will of Republicans to demonize a Democrat in order to get out the vote.  His unfavorables are already higher than Clinton's are at this point.

Obama has weaknesses with core Democratic voters. He isn't going to make that up with Republicans after the 527s get through with him. He has turned out to be just as divisive (or more so) than Clinton.

And lastly, you are really in fantasyland if you think that white males are going to suddenly undergo a radical shift in voting patterns this year and shift to Obama. Its not going to happen. When Democrats win it is because they can will minority voters  by a large margin (including not just blacks bur Hispanics and others as well), AND get at least a small majority of white women. White men usually vote for the Republicans by significant margins. Obama can deliver the black vote but he's got weaknesses with Hispanics and real serious problems with white women. It's possible that he can win in November but not likely. If he does I suspect it will be because of reverse coat-tails.

but a key difference between Obama and Clinton may be the vastly different effect they would have on the number of new Democrats we elect to replace Republican obstructionists in Congress.

Hillary Clinton is the GOP's main Get Out The Vote strategy, even more so than their anti-gay, anti-choice strategies have spurred their followers to vote in the past.

Do you seriously think that if Obama is the nominee, he will not be a lightning rod for the GOP GOTV strategy?  Seriously?  They can't wait to run against Obama - it's all they can do not to lick their chops and rub their hands together in anticipation.  I don't know where you have been lately, but Obama is going to be pathetically easy for the GOP to run against.

Right wing voters don't just dislike her, they actively despise her!

Problem is that a lot of actual Democrats feel that way about Obama, and he can't win without them.

Alternatively, new and reengaged voters motivated by Obama can help us elect 10-20 new Democrats in Congress.

Motivated by Obama?  What, this guy is now the Second Coming and is the only one who can elect down-ticket Dems?  Please - how do you explain that some Dems have already had to distance themselves from Obama?

That has got to be on the minds of Dem party leadership.  Do we want to pass up the chance in a lifetime to finally clean house in Congress?  That's what Obama brings to the table.  Even if he loses the presidency, and I don't think he will, almost EVERY OTHER Democrat on the ticket WINS because the millions of  new and reengaged voters motivated by Obama can be checking Democrat, Democrat, Democrat everywhere on their ballot.  At some point the white, male middle class vote that everyone keeps saying will go to McCain is going to wake up and realize the impact of McSame on their wallets, their kids and their American way of life.

I don't know what you are drinking or smoking, but this is not even close to being reality-based thinking.  Obama's presence is going to help clean up Congress?  How - will there be a laying on of hands?  Some magical transcendent light that will help people come to the truth that is Obama?  I hate to break it to you, but Obama does not and cannot claim ownership and responsibility for MILLIONS of energized voters.  Sure, there are some, but stop already with the hyperbole.  And unless and until you can guarantee that these new followers have even the slightest interest in Congress or down-ticket races, please stop with the overblown claims.

I personally don't look to Barack Obama to make all the changes I hope for in this country's near future.

That's good - because he isn't going to be making any, unless you consider chipping away at core Democratic principles to be the kind of change you want.

I look at him as an opportunity to make sweeping changes in Congress, if only because the Hillary-haters on the right might sit out the vote, and the Obama supporters will be at the polls voting down ticket like crazy.  

Please stop - you are embarrassing yourself.

I also think that the millions of new and reengaged voters will have expectations of progressive change, will demand transparency and integrity in our government, and will be mobilized and connected to effect that change.

They're expecting progessive change from Obama?  Only if you consider co-opting GOP talking points to be progressive - I don't.  Transparency in government?  Obama can't even be honest about who he takes money from and who did the real work on things he claims credit for.  Mobilized and connected?  Like he was to his subcommittee?  Yeah, that's just inspiring beyond belief.

That's what I see from the Yes We Can Movement. It's less about Obama and more about the rest of us who support him.

Less about Obama?  Better not tell him you feel that way - I think he expects that it is ALL about him.