Zogby Predicting Obama Wins In Indiana and NC
John Zogby stands alone right now in predicting a Barack Obama 2 point win in Indiana. The key finding:
Clinton leads by 11 points among white voters in Indiana, which make up about 83% of the electorate. Obama leads by an enormous 10-to-1 ratio among African American voters in Indiana. Obama is holding on to a nine point lead among Indiana men, while closing the gap to five points behind Clinton among women.
Projecting undecideds, by my math, Zogby is projecting Clinton to win whites 55-44 (83% of the vote) and Obama to win African Americans (17% of the vote) by 90-9. This would be a terrific outcome for Obama and would win the race. Suffice it to say that Zogby is a charlatan and his results should be only be used to determine what Zogby the pundit is about. I think he is hoping for a close race in Indiana to let him claim some prescience. I believe he will have Clinton up narrowly on Tuesday. In North Carolina, Zogby has Obama up 10, which sounds about right to me. The key NC finding:
Clinton leads among whites, 56% to 33%, while Obama leads among African Americans, 78% to 6%. African American voters in North Carolina comprise about one-third of the electorate.
In NC, it seems fair to expect a rough 2-1 split among whites in favor of Clinton and a 90-10 split among African Americans in favor of Obama. This leads to about a 5 point Obama win, assuming whites are two thirds of the electorate and African Americans one third.
By Big Tent Democrat
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