Zogby Predicting Obama Wins In Indiana and NC

John Zogby stands alone right now in predicting a Barack Obama 2 point win in Indiana. The key finding:

Clinton leads by 11 points among white voters in Indiana, which make up about 83% of the electorate. Obama leads by an enormous 10-to-1 ratio among African American voters in Indiana. Obama is holding on to a nine point lead among Indiana men, while closing the gap to five points behind Clinton among women.

Projecting undecideds, by my math, Zogby is projecting Clinton to win whites 55-44 (83% of the vote) and Obama to win African Americans (17% of the vote) by 90-9. This would be a terrific outcome for Obama and would win the race. Suffice it to say that Zogby is a charlatan and his results should be only be used to determine what Zogby the pundit is about. I think he is hoping for a close race in Indiana to let him claim some prescience. I believe he will have Clinton up narrowly on Tuesday. In North Carolina, Zogby has Obama up 10, which sounds about right to me. The key NC finding:

Clinton leads among whites, 56% to 33%, while Obama leads among African Americans, 78% to 6%. African American voters in North Carolina comprise about one-third of the electorate.

In NC, it seems fair to expect a rough 2-1 split among whites in favor of Clinton and a 90-10 split among African Americans in favor of Obama. This leads to about a 5 point Obama win, assuming whites are two thirds of the electorate and African Americans one third.

By Big Tent Democrat

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    you should clarify that BTD. (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by cpinva on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:50:18 AM EST
    AA's might comprise 1/3 of the Democratic electorate in NC, not 1/3 of the total electorate. they only comprise 1/5 of the total electorate, a critical difference come the GE. that's one reason why, regardless of who the dem nominee is, they will not win NC in the nov.

    sen. obama will most likely win the NC dem primary, due in large part to his AA vote. however, it will be another state neither will win in the fall. in that regard, the win is meaningless.

    That's fine (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by MaryGM on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:50:35 AM EST
    Set the bar low for her, Zog.  Then when she blows him out of Indiana and keeps it down to single digits in NC, we'll thank you for your (under)estimations.

    same as PA? (none / 0) (#10)
    by Kensdad on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:56:50 AM EST
    zogby had hillary at similarly low numbers in PA and jacked them up at the last second...  i couldn't help but think he was trying to demoralize hillary supporters leading up to the voting, then changed his numbers at the last possible second in order to save face (since his numbers have been so horrid this year that his future has to be in doubt somewhat.)

    does anyone remember zogby on "the daily show" after NH when he basically admitted that he was a complete joke, but as long as people want to pay him so much money, then who is he to say no?


    Wow..... (none / 0) (#34)
    by AnninCA on Sun May 04, 2008 at 03:56:20 PM EST
    He really said that?  Why is he always carried by Reuters.

    I am emotionally worn out not by the election but by the pollsters this year.  LOL*

    I can't take it.  :)


    As always, high undecideds for Zogby (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by ineedalife on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:57:20 AM EST
    Zogby's enormous undecided numbers are usually at Clinton's expense. He isn't that off on Obama's numbers but Clintons rarely match the final. Perhaps it is the way he asks his questions? Regardless, he always has "undecideds" flocking to Clinton in the final day.

    So a Clinton supporter should be heartened at these results. Obama is under 50% in NC. And Obama's IN number is actually less than other polls has it.

    Obama WORMs out of his Indiana=tiebreaker words (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by Ellie on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:17:55 AM EST
    Keeping one sleepy eye on Press the Meet, here's the most recent WORM moving the latest Indiana = tie breaker goalpost.

    Apparently Indiana is only the tie-breaker between HRC's win in PA and Obama's anticipated (good) performance in NC. About the larger race, it will be over when she folds (mmm-hmmm) or ...

    That's when the audio went faint under the siren call of the espresso machine, but any talking point that starts off with a Surrender, Hillary message is when I walk away anyway.  

    Oh look, there she is on Dis' Weak, not surrendering!

    Stef: "Can you name one credible economist supporting the [gas tax holiday]?" Hard follow up demand to name an economist.

    HRC says she's not going to throw her lot in with a particular economist and outlines her plan and discusses subsidies, profits and relief in contrast to market and pushback.

    This, in the first moments of an hour-long appearance, presents a stark contrast to the media-hours dedicated to sending Obama fluffernutters, and I'm not using SNL's: 'Senator Obama, are you comfy? Can we get you anything?' as a bar.

    Russert reverently waited for Obama's complete spiel though. Stef has already interrupted HRC several times to toss in Levels II, III and IV of the hard question.

    This would nuke FanBase Obama's long and short pants media apologists' wail that the ABC appearance is an infomercial.

    holy crap! (5.00 / 3) (#26)
    by Kensdad on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:23:54 AM EST
    his answer to the "tie-breaker" question is weasely...  does he get away with this?

    more WWTBQ...

    this "interview" is almost over... and the last 30 min have been an infomercial for obama.  axelrod and the boyz must be doing cartwheels over at obama campaign HQ...

    NBC is sinking faster and faster...  not that i ever liked timmy's game of "gotcha", but if you're going to be such a total ass for your entire career, then why suspend it now, just two days before critical primary elections.

    this primary season has done two things for me.  it has changed my view of the democratic party and has put NBC on the same level as Fox News.  it has been a real eye-opener in so many ways!


    You would not think so as I am watching the Sunday (none / 0) (#1)
    by Saul on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:39:11 AM EST
    Tv shows.

    Talk about in the Tank

    As I watch Meet the Press today and This Week, it is hard not to believe that both NBC and ABC WANT Obama to win so bad.   Tim Russert has Obama for the only reason so he can get more positive exposure since he had a bad week and so his man can explain himself once again for  his bad week so he can do well on Tuesday.

    On ABC Stenpanpoulus is doing everything to make Hilary look bad by constantly interrupting her before a group of people not letting her answer the question the audience gave him.  You can tell he hates her and wants her to mess up so she looks bad and Obama looks good.  His tone is like he is disgusted with Hilary.

    George isn't so bad (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by Kensdad on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:29:17 AM EST
    george is keeping the pressure on hillary, but he's not being unreasonable so far (first commercial break)...  the questions from the audience are easy for hillary, so george is just trying to keep this from turning into a 60 min commercial for the clinton campaign...

    don't get me wrong...  i am a huge supporter of hillary, but i think tough questioning makes her look better, not worse...


    I didn't like the SD question about (none / 0) (#20)
    by nycstray on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:36:39 AM EST
    the pledge delegate votes. He was phrasing it as if she would be overturning the vote, not the SDs. Odd.

    pledged delegates (none / 0) (#23)
    by Kensdad on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:49:10 AM EST
    hillary has to make a stronger case that all delegates have an equal vote...  pledged delegates are only part of the equation.  if she doesn't win this argument, then she'll lose the nomination.

    Agreed that harder is better; Stef interruptions (none / 0) (#22)
    by Ellie on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:40:32 AM EST
    ... aren't journalistically based so much as pointless automatic gunfire changing the question before she's answered the preceding question(s).

    A far cry from the (Obama Roolz) cut to the benignly nodding countenances waiting to ensure that the existing pause is long enough to take as a sign to continue.

    (Scorcard: Stef has not allowed one complete, uninterrupted answer and this is 2/3 of the way in.)


    Did I miss something? (none / 0) (#2)
    by Marvin42 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:44:36 AM EST
    I thought neither had broadcast yet (its 9:45am EST).

    There on as we blog (none / 0) (#3)
    by Saul on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:45:55 AM EST
    Great, my local station (none / 0) (#7)
    by Marvin42 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:51:07 AM EST
    Thinks its more important to show local flower shows! DoH!

    It'll be on in about an hour (none / 0) (#9)
    by stillife on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:54:13 AM EST
    here in NYC.  So says Stephanopoulos.

    Those shows are broadcast on different times. (none / 0) (#8)
    by pie on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:52:30 AM EST
    In southeast MI, they won't be shown until 10:30 am.

    Zogby sucks (none / 0) (#4)
    by Kensdad on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:49:33 AM EST
    why is it that you can find the zogby poll results on every cable news channel, but yet they ignore SUSA and others that have been so much more accurate for the entire primary season?  by listening to MSNBC and CNN you'd never know that there were three recent polls showing hillary ahead in IN by 8, 9, and 10...  they just keep blaring that it's a dead heat...  maybe inadvertently they are helping Hillary as her supporters become even more motivated to make their vote count?  

    Zogby = republican fundraiser (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Kathy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:08:45 AM EST
    Back-scratching among corporate media types and a fellow republican.

    As with any poll that does not favor my candidate, I choose to believe this man is an idiot.

    Clinton will win in IN, and she'll come dang close in NC.


    Zogby, I believe, (none / 0) (#24)
    by sancho on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:52:09 AM EST
    testified at Conyers' '04 Dem-only Voting Irregularities inqiry. Zogby had Kerry winning and, as I recall, testified that many things seemed unusual to him about the results. Republicans were mad at him for talking to Conyers.  At the time, I thought that might be evidence of election fraud. Now I wonder if it wasn't just bad polling and a** covering.

    Zogby I Believe (4.00 / 1) (#27)
    by delacarpa on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:34:43 AM EST
    One of the states has early voting and if it is NC then Hillary will do well because Ace Smith called (the closure) has been there for a very long time. My question if Clinton thought that these 2 states are so important for her why would she say they will be game changers. Hmmm sounds like they know something.

    Zogby: Publicity wh*re. (none / 0) (#25)
    by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:06:33 AM EST
    Will there be or has there (none / 0) (#12)
    by Stellaaa on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:07:05 AM EST
    been a new SUSA before Tuesday?

    KUSA (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by Kathy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:10:07 AM EST
    has Clinton at +8 in Indiana and +2 in NC....

    SUSA? Are you sure? (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Davidson on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:31:25 AM EST
    That NC polls looks too high.  The last one I saw had her down by 5 in NC.

    KUSA (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by Kathy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:37:15 AM EST
    Kathy USA....the most trusted name in Clinton polling...

    LOL Missed That All Together Kathy (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by MO Blue on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:47:54 AM EST
    and though it was a typo. My comprehension skills get better later in the day. No one has ever accused me of being a morning person.

    Brilliant! My new favorite pollster! N/T (none / 0) (#31)
    by Marvin42 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:04:23 AM EST
    'K' USA (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by waldenpond on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:42:26 AM EST
    You need to remember Kathy listens only to polls that favor her candidate.

    One for Kathy.... Rasmussen on Fox this morning.

    ..............Tied in NC...........

    So the shows keep having people on saying 'Hagee' 'Hagee' 'Hagee'


    The Last SUSA I'm Aware Of Was For 4/25 - 4/27 (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by MO Blue on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:13:35 AM EST
    Clinton 52%  Obama 43% and 2% undecided.

    SUSA evidently pushes undecided and Zogby apparently does not.


    We expect them (none / 0) (#15)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:11:49 AM EST
    Probably tomorrow (none / 0) (#21)
    by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:40:27 AM EST
    Hardly any comments in this thread (none / 0) (#32)
    by Militarytracy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 12:28:21 PM EST
    What can be said though other than Zogby seems to want to bury Obama.  He could help buy into the whole Oregon is the tiebreaker thing but no, he'd rather raise everyone's Obama expectations and then watch them dashed against the reef of reality.  Then again maybe Zogby has everything right and everybody else polling out there is an idiot.  Once again I reach for my magic eight ball hoping to understand what the heck is going on here.

    Is that the same Zogby (none / 0) (#33)
    by Left of center on Sun May 04, 2008 at 02:29:04 PM EST
    who was off by 21 points in the California primary?