Looking Ahead: Oregon Is The Test
While we can pretend there have been recent ebbs and flows in the campaign, the reality is that from Super Tuesday on, almost invariably demography has been political destiny. Tell me the demographics of a state and I can tell you roughly what the electoral result will be. Consider North Carolina and Indiana. In North Carolina, Research2000 has Obama up 7. In Indiana, Ras has Clinton up 5. Why? To put it bluntly, it is because there are many more African American voters in North Carolina. Clinton leads among whites by 36 points in North Carolina and by 19 points in Indiana. She trails among African Americans in North Carolina by 88-5 and in Indiana by 90-4. In North Carolina a third of the electorate will be African American. In Indiana, 10% will be African Americans.
Clinton can not win in North Carolina. Period. And in Indiana, it is looking like Obama can not win. Looking forward, Obama has no chance in West Virginia or Kentucky. Where can he break this demographic narrative? Oregon. More . .
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