Early W. Va. Exit Polling

The early West Virginia exit polls are out from the Associated Press. What stands out to me:

If they had to choose, seven in 10 voters said they'd prefer that their candidate wins the Democratic presidential nomination, even if the race continues for months. A quarter said they'd prefer the race ends as soon as possible, even if their candidate loses the nomination.

...Barely a third of Clinton supporters say they'd vote for Obama over John McCain in a November matchup. As many claim they'd vote for Republican John McCain and a quarter said they would not vote for president. If that horse race were Clinton vs. McCain, half of Obama backers say they'd vote for Clinton, about three in 10 say they'd back McCain and the rest would stay home.

The voters are 95% white, 50% rural and 40% are over age 60. 70% do not have college degrees.

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    Obama keeps losing Clinton voters. (5.00 / 5) (#1)
    by alexei on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:36:37 PM EST
    Now up to two thirds will not vote for him in WVA (has more Democrats than Republicans).  This another nail in the electability coffin for him. Are the SDs going to see that they are looking at an epic loss?

    that's what I noticed (5.00 / 4) (#4)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:38:28 PM EST
    It's a sharp increase from last week's PA exits on that question.

    matches what I am hearing (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:39:44 PM EST
    on the street.
    and, frankly, personally feeling.

    The "presumptive nominee" jazz... (5.00 / 6) (#12)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:42:02 PM EST
    ...has really teed off voters, both those who voted for Hillary, and those who haven't yet voted.

    It's ludicrous. (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:43:35 PM EST
    John McCain hasn't even claimed victory yet, and doesn't he have like 1000 delegates more than anyone else?

    One thing Americans DON'T like to be told is:

    "Your votes don't count."


    since the first time I voted (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:45:59 PM EST
    I have never considered sitting out an election.
    I am considering it.

    I will vote the undercard, lots of locals (none / 0) (#56)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:46:23 PM EST
    running here. So I will vote the straight Dem ticket as usual, but leave Pres. blank if Obama is the nominee. Or if I can, write in Hillary Clinton. I will NOT vote for Barack Obama. I just can't bring myself to do it.

    AP's hed is: (none / 0) (#20)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:46:18 PM EST
    "Clinton seeks largely symbolic win in W. Va."



    Yep. (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by janarchy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:45:38 PM EST
    I can't say how indicative of the rest of the country this is but I was out food shopping today and people in the local grocery store were discussing how unhappy they are with Obama, especially after this presumptive nominee schtick. This is a pretty affluent suburb on Long Island too. Several women, several seniors (men and women) and even one or two younger workers at the store. And they're all Democrats. There was a lot of anger at the DNC, the media and anyone who has just discounted HRC. I suppose since no one was African American, they'll all just be discounted as racists though.

    Took my cat to the vet today. (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by davnee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:00:36 PM EST
    First time with this vet.  She launched into how disgusted she was about HRC losing and she couldn't believe the media shortcircuiting everything.  The young gal (max. age 21) who was assisting, just kept repeating how sad she was about McCain becoming president.  There is a backlash out there.  How big I don't know.  But it is there.

    and people who voted pre-PA.. Buyer's Remorse! (none / 0) (#32)
    by BostonIndependent on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:57:37 PM EST
    It will be difficult (5.00 / 0) (#52)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:26:05 PM EST
    to lose bigger than McGovern, but it does appear he's going to give it a good try.

    I hope the SD's (5.00 / 4) (#3)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:37:51 PM EST
    are paying attention to the fact that 66% of HRC's voters WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA.

    This is not racism. It's that they don't think he represents their values.

    BitterCling and Jeremiah Wright have indeed taken their toll - and it's only May.

    Well I think the racism (5.00 / 4) (#10)
    by rooge04 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:41:50 PM EST
    accusations are causing a backlash of her voters as well. I know I'm sick of being told only racists vote for her (and my goodness, it couldn't be that the woman is by far the most qualified, most intelligent, BEST candidate could it? I think she's better and smarter than Bill!)...and it makes me less likely to vote for Obama due to this. It has dirtied my vote for her and the votes of millions of others.

    Interesting take on the whole "racism" (5.00 / 2) (#31)
    by chancellor on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:56:52 PM EST
    issue, and I think you're correct. The real "racisim" backlash may actually be those millions of people who are not racist and are tired of being told that they are racist. Another way for Obama to shoot himself in the foot.

    another element.... (5.00 / 2) (#48)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:19:03 PM EST
    that plays into this is the 90+% of the black vote that Obama is getting -- especially in the wake of the Wright controversy.

    I think htat accounts for the very high % of clinton voters who acknowledge that race was a factor in their decision -- and that this is dangerous, not just for Obama's chances, but for the nation.

    When it becomes "normative" for white people to tell perfect strangers that "race was an issue" when telling them they voted for a white candidate, you've got a very large potential problem on your hands....


    i find it especially insulting when an aa (none / 0) (#55)
    by hellothere on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:45:41 PM EST
    commentator sits there and says the voting isn't racist in the aa community. i was afraid of backlash when jackson jr started with the ugly katrina comment.

    What got me mad about the Katrina (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:55:38 PM EST
    comment is that Hillary didn't cry for the victims of Katrina, she got mad and went to work getting funds and help for them that FEMA should have and didn't. If you look up her bills around that time, you will see that she did more than show emotion, she got to work. I want to know what Obama did for the victims of Katrina, if anything.

    He has a hard time recognizing the line (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:31:05 PM EST
    he shouldn't cross. The first shot at racism got him the "defiant vote" and people who said, "I'll prove I'm not afraid to vote for a black man".

    Each subsequent claim got less and less attention to the point where people are now simply ignoring the accusation.

    Playing that card has been a huge mistake for Obama. He's actually harmed race relations in this country with his campaign.


    Yes (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by Dr Molly on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:47:42 PM EST
    I've been thinking/saying this for a long time. I really don't think it matches the data to say that his eroding white support is due to white racists who won't vote for a black person. It seems to me it's directly the opposite - the constant racial bullying towards white voters and the cognitive dissonance about the church he attends vs. his unity message has painted a picture that has driven them away IMO.

    I'm sorry to say this, but IMO, it has been mainly black racism, not white racism, that has stunk up the joint during this campaign.


    But But But You Can't say that!!! (none / 0) (#63)
    by Marvin42 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:10:45 PM EST
    Take it back, take it back, quick before the mob comes.

    You may be right, I for one (5.00 / 0) (#60)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:00:38 PM EST
    am not going to be emotionally blackmailed into voting for an unqualified candidate. I will NOT vote for someone to prove I am not a racist. I don't have to prove it. I am not a racist, but I don't think Obama is qualified. The color that bothers me about Obama isn't that he is black, it is that he is green.

    And (none / 0) (#43)
    by kenoshaMarge on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:10:52 PM EST
    Social Security
    Trashing WJC Legacy
    Ayers and Dorn (realize it doesn't mean much to some people but it means a great deal to me.)
    Voting Present a gazillion times
    and on and on and on...

    If the supers are paying attention (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:40:24 PM EST
    it won't matter how the media spins it.

    Like Terry from Clinton's camp said, "turn off your tvs and vote. Don't let the pundits decide."

    More (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by cmugirl on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:42:55 PM EST


    Two in 10 voters said Obama shares the views of his fiery former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, "a lot" and three in 10 said Obama shares Wright's views "somewhat." Nearly a quarter said Obama shares Wright's views "not much" and a quarter said the candidate doesn't share his one-time preacher's views at all.


    Seven in 10 Hillary Clinton voters supported her idea to suspend the federal gas tax for the summer. Obama opposes the plan and a little more than half of his voters called it a bad idea.


    More than six in 10 voters picked the economy from three choices as the most important issue facing the country. About one in five picked the Iraq war.

    Clinton voters were more likely than Obama backers to say the economy was hurting their families a lot. Half of Clinton voters said the current recession or economic slowdown has affected them and their families a great deal. About three in 10 Obama voters said the slowdown has affected them a great deal and more than half said it affected them somewhat.

    About one in 10 Obama voters acknowledged Clinton as more qualified to be commander in chief. Very few Clinton voters said that of Obama.

    the Wright stuff.... (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:51:35 PM EST
    I find that really interesting....

    I think that Obama's obvious dishonesty and manipulation of the Wright controversy -- the fact that he tried to pretend that he didn't know what Wright's views were have given people reason to suspect that Obama shares those views.  

    But there seems to be another element here -- are there viral emails going around with Wright's statement saying that Obama "had to say that" because Obama's a politician?   I think that Wright has a lot of "credibility" in the sense that he doesn't mince words....


    Did you see the off-the-wall guest (none / 0) (#36)
    by oculus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:02:31 PM EST
    op-ed in the NYT recently:  Obama renounces Wright and, thus, Christianity; Obama's father was Muslim, which apparently no-one can renounce; therefore, Obama must be Muslim.

    I don't know how to conclude (none / 0) (#58)
    by Dr Molly on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:49:28 PM EST
    anything BUT that Obama shares those views. Believe me, I wish he didn't. But 1) he's been going there for 20 years and has made huge financial contributions to the church, and perhaps more importantly, 2) the new pastor is just as bad as Rev. Wright was.

    CBS exit polls (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by cmugirl on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:47:28 PM EST
    Say about the same thing except see the bolded areas:

    "The polls close at 7:30pm ET in West Virginia but we have our first peek at some of the exit polling results. Most voters made up their minds at some time before last week - a period which has been dominated by talk of Hillary Clinton's ability to continue in the race. Seventy eight percent of voters in the early CBS News exit polls said they had decided who they would be supporting before the past week.

    As it has been throughout the primary season, the economy was once again the top issue on the minds of voters, with 64 percent saying so. Eighty eight percent said they had been directly affected by the economic slowdown and 63 percent said they were in favor of proposals to temporarily suspend the gas tax.

    Change was the quality voters were looking for most in a candidate, with 48 percent saying so compared to 23 percent who said experience was. Just eight percent said the ability to win in November was the most important quality for them.

    There are more signs of a split within the Democratic Party. Just 23 percent of Hillary Clinton voters in West Virginia said they would be satisfied if Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee while 75 percent said they would be dissatisfied - the highest number recorded in exit polls yet. In Indiana, 62 percent of Clinton voters said they would be dissatisfied with Obama as the nominee. Sixty one percent of Obama voters said they would be dissatisfied with Clinton as the nominee while 33 percent said they would be satisfied.

    Looking ahead to the general election, 59 percent of Clinton voters say they would either vote for Republican John McCain or not vote at all if Obama is the Democratic nominee. Thirty six percent of Clinton voters said they would vote for Obama while 35 percent said they would vote for McCain and 24 percent said they would sit the election out. Fifty one percent of Obama's voters said they would support Clinton in the general election while 31 percent said they would support McCain and 14 percent would not vote.

    Other indicators: Over half, 51 percent, of West Virginia voters said they think Obama shares the views of his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Sixty two percent said that Bill Clinton's campaigning in the state was an important factor in their vote. And 70 percent of Clinton voters said they think the race should continue."


    75 percent (5.00 / 3) (#26)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:48:35 PM EST
    thats pretty stunning.
    that has to get someones attention.

    Stunning for sure (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by chancellor on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:06:25 PM EST
    Voters telling the Dems that they want change from Bush, but the change they want isn't Obama.

    I guess that explains why he is in (none / 0) (#24)
    by bjorn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:48:22 PM EST

    Brave, Brave Sir Obama! (5.00 / 2) (#39)
    by Fabian on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:05:17 PM EST
    I think it's actually a deliberate ploy to split the media.

    It's a sneaky underhanded move.  First - go to a state well removed from Clinton.  The media will follow him, they pretty much have to.  Since they are bunked out there with Obama, they have to do something useful with their time, so they will cover him.  The networks, ever afraid of missing something Important and anxious to get a return on the money they are pouring into those expense accounts, will give him air time.

    And naturally, Obama has to deliver something that the media will air.  Perhaps it's a lackluster speech of the type he doesn't like - boring issues, tedious details.  But it's something and most importantly, it's going to steal that much air time away from Clinton.

    Is my theory too CT or is it cynically plausible?


    Let me explain about theory and fact.. (none / 0) (#61)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:57:54 PM EST
    If it has been happening, then it is a fact, not a theory. So, your theory isn't a theory, hon, it's a fact. Heh.

    weird thought... (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:00:55 PM EST
    I think I've been watching too much cable news...

    I just had an image of Hillary as the wicked witch of the west, flying over the skies of west virginia, spelling out the words SURRENDER BARACK!

    Borrowing heavinly from either (none / 0) (#37)
    by oculus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:04:42 PM EST
    the Wizard of Oz or Marc Chagall.

    Like I've said before (1.00 / 1) (#15)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:43:52 PM EST
    Obama supporters are getter Democrats

    as in... (none / 0) (#25)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:48:34 PM EST
    "Getter out of the race, and then we'll talk unity"?

    Keep insulting HRC supporters. (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:51:55 PM EST
    It's the only way they'll realize their utter stupidity and vote for Obama!



    Touche (none / 0) (#28)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:51:01 PM EST
    by the way, it looks like pledged delegates ARE in play

    They always were (none / 0) (#51)
    by tree on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:23:28 PM EST
    Its just another example of Obama-inspired hypocrisy. "Horror of horrors" if it might benefit Clinton, "the only right and noble thing" if it might benefit Obama.

    I think instead of showing (none / 0) (#2)
    by rooge04 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:37:09 PM EST
    that HIllary is extremely popular with working-class whites, it'll simply be spun as proof the racist voters that back her.  Sigh.

    the 64,000 dollar question is (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:40:48 PM EST
    how much are the supers influenced by network spin.

    Not much (none / 0) (#11)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:41:53 PM EST
    or else he'd be the nominee...

    Just what (none / 0) (#16)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:44:39 PM EST
    I was thinking. if they were influenced by it then they would have closed this down en masses after Russert's proclamation.

    wouldnt it be an amazing thing (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:47:47 PM EST
    if the supers actually did the job they were created for and saved us from a losing nominee?

    5% black turnout, it seems. (none / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:39:21 PM EST
    2 pct better than the 2004 general election. Overall, not that important in WV, though.

    How will Jay Rockefeller get (none / 0) (#7)
    by bjorn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:40:09 PM EST
    re-elected?  What is up with him supporting Obama?

    Maybe (none / 0) (#33)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:59:45 PM EST
    he'll abandon Obama after these results. Really, she should pick up the entire WV delegation.

    I have also been wondering about Rockefeller. (none / 0) (#38)
    by NCarolinawoman on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:05:07 PM EST
    I think he is one of those that endorsed pre-Reverend Wright.

    Did Byrd stay neutral? He recently said "Hillary is a work-horse, not a show-horse."


    Hopefully (none / 0) (#46)
    by kenoshaMarge on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:14:30 PM EST
    WV will get rid of Rockefeller and his persistent attempts to get his corporate pals Telecon Immunity.

    That's not hard data (none / 0) (#17)
    by 1jane on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:45:32 PM EST
    it is an exit poll which is merely a snap shot, a quick opinion. The demographics are perfect in WV for Hillary because of the compostion of the voters, 60+ in age, white and rural. She'll win big. Move on to the next state and compare demographics to better pedict the outcome. Factor in the fact that she cannot win the delegates. How many voters will vote for the person who cannot pick up the delegates and add in the MSM calling for an end to the contest. The mountain is darned steep but strange things could happen.

    The demographics (5.00 / 2) (#27)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:50:06 PM EST
    should be ignored...unless they favor Obama.



    What's pathetic (none / 0) (#44)
    by 1jane on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:12:27 PM EST
    is ignoring factual data. Data was reported that favors Clinton.

    You wait (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by sas on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:17:21 PM EST
    and see how many will vote for her, even if the supers declare....voters are ticked off!

    LOL. But it's hard data (none / 0) (#22)
    by rooge04 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:47:35 PM EST
    when it shows that only the racist vote won her OH correct?  Because I specifically recall that particular exit poll being quoted en masse by Obama supporters as proof, PROOF that her voters hate black people.

    LOL (none / 0) (#41)
    by 1jane on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:09:54 PM EST
    There is no implication that white voters in WV are racists. They are older 60+ white voters, who live in rural areas and do not have a college education. How those voters feel about about race is impossible to determine. Their votes may have been for many other reasons. We will never know what motivated the votes for Clinton. The point is certain demographics have shown a trend for supporting Clinton.

    but what'll the excuse be... (none / 0) (#45)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:12:55 PM EST
    ...when she trounces him among voters under the age of 60?

    that (none / 0) (#50)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:22:14 PM EST
    that they are apprentice Klansmen?

    NO, it says (none / 0) (#49)
    by tree on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:19:41 PM EST
    40% are 60 or older which means that 60% are younger. Half of them live in rural areas and half do not. 70% don't have college degrees, which of course means that 30% of them do. If you can't even describe the data accurately yourself its rather pointless to expect people to listen to your criticisms about how "hard" the data is.

    It doesn't contradict (none / 0) (#42)
    by Fabian on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:09:56 PM EST
    any of the previous polling data that I know of.

    If it did, then there would be something to discuss.

    But the polls say "Yep, that's what we've been saying all along.".


    John Edwards (none / 0) (#54)
    by facta non verba on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:45:20 PM EST
    won 4% of the vote tonight and he wasn't even on the ballot.

    Yes, he was on the ballot. (none / 0) (#62)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:11:39 PM EST
    See this link, for the ballot. He is on the ballot.

    So if Obama gets 30% (none / 0) (#64)
    by Marvin42 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:12:42 PM EST
    The "winner" would have gotten 7 times the votes of a guy who dropped out months ago? Interesting.