Earth Day/PA Open Thread

By Big Tent Democrat

Today is Earth Day and D-Day in Pennsylvania. Zogby makes a shrewd play to regain his reputation by predicting a double digit Clinton victory. If it happens, he nailed it. If it does not no one will remember. The other option he had was to predict an Obama win, but PPP already has that ground covered.

BTW, Suffolk says Clinton by 12 and ARG says Clinton by 16.

This is an Open Thread.

< Obama's Waffle Controversy | A Reason The Race Should Continue: Debating "Umbrella of Deterrence" >
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    I have decided that Clinton will win by 10 (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:29:27 AM EST
    And this will be the "second Ohio."

    My prediction is arbitrary and without any substance. But it's still correct anyway.

    wish I could agree (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:43:19 AM EST
    but I'm familiar with Obama's dogwhistling.
    Obama's campaign has primarily been based on "beat the B!" So when Obama declared Hillary will win PA - it was basically a call to GOTV - "you don't want the B to win - do you?"

    Get out the vote (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:47:48 AM EST
    Both of them will see record turn-outs.  No whistling needed.

    It would appear from the polls today that the undecideds are breaking for Hillary as they did in Ohio and Texas.

    That final ad of hers was great.


    AnninCA - Welcome!!!!! (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by jeffhas on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:50:48 AM EST
    I was so glad to see your posts yesterday... just wanted to say welcome from another HuffPo refugee.

    Can't wait to hear your insights.


    Refugee is good term! (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:54:33 AM EST
    Glad to see you, too!  I'm so glad Huff imploded.  My blood pressure is down points already.  :)

    Man, this has been a long 6 weeks!  Slogging toward PA was the best editorial headline of the bunch.

    I'm glad today is for the voters.  (Bet they'll be glad, too!)

    She's worked hard.  Her ads have been excellent.  Her pitch has been perfect.  

    Can't ask for more.  


    did HuffPo implode? (none / 0) (#82)
    by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:34:08 AM EST
    what happened?

    I like it! (none / 0) (#9)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:36:15 AM EST
    Yeah......Go Hillary!

    It FEELS like it's going to be a good win.


    Me? (none / 0) (#106)
    by Rainsong on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:17:45 PM EST
     I put my money last week on the online betting markets for a 12-pointer, in the vague possibility of getting a return on my contribs to Hillary :)

    Has anybody been watching (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:29:39 AM EST
    Canterbury's Law?  The legal aspects are totally stupid, but I love the shirts Julianna Marguilese (sp) wears--the ones with the high collars.  And Aidan Quinn is such a sexy, sexy man.

    By the way, is anyone else nervous as a wh*re in church today waiting for the polls to close?

    I'm trying not to be nervous today (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:43:04 AM EST
    but Kathy, I was never nervous in church.  I knew it was all fiction.

    yeah, but I take it you were (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:45:55 AM EST
    never a wh*re either, so it doesn't hold up.

    (thankfully, the internet is anonymous because I will freely own up to my wild youth!)


    model I promise to make more money than he does.  I'm moving to D.C. and becoming a Dominatrix, seems to me that that is the sort of girl rich Republicans fantasize about and you don't even have to sleep with them.  You just dress nasty and be mean to them, what girl in her right mind can't do that?

    heck, I've been doing it for free! (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:59:35 AM EST
    You just dress nasty and be mean to them, what girl in her right mind can't do that?

    I've always wanted to date a guy 20 years younger (none / 0) (#66)
    by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:06:42 AM EST
    Unfortunately, I'll have to wait for that, since that would amount to a 3 year old today.

    Looking forward to it though.


    Aidan Quinn (none / 0) (#6)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:35:12 AM EST
    Now you are talking.  Is this guy ever gonna get old, what is this show, I will start watching, where is it?  

    our friends from Fox (none / 0) (#14)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:38:38 AM EST
    Canterbury's Law

    She's wearing one of the shirts in the pic.  Like I said, the legal cases are pretty laughable, but the emotional stuff and character development kind of make you overlook the crap.

    And, of course, Aidan Quinn helps, too.  (And Julianna ain't so bad herself, come to that.  I have had a major crush on her since her Hathaway days.)


    My wife and I watch it (none / 0) (#13)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:38:34 AM EST
    And actually like it a lot (but we also really like Rescue me). I am amazed at how good an actor Julianna Margulies really is.

    I am hoping it gets picked up for a second season.

    As for polls: I have this strange calm feeling. I think today is in the bag.


    Nervous? (none / 0) (#33)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:49:07 AM EST
    Of course!  I have been thrilled to hear the talk about electability.  A good solid showing in PA would push that more.


    I'm going to go have waffles for breakfast and work out.  :)


    My two predictions (5.00 / 4) (#15)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:39:15 AM EST
    Clinton will win by 11+ points.

    Obama will never eat waffles again.

    I stand by my prediction (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:49:01 AM EST
    HRC by 16.


    Let's Guzzle More Gas!! (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:49:47 AM EST
    What's the deal?  McCain had this really stupid idea to have a "gas tax" holiday over the summer -- this does two bad things that the GOP loves: (a) increases gas consumption; and (b) lowers taxes with no offset so as to increase the deficit.

    Now I read that Hillary has endorsed the idea too?!?

    Happy Earth Day.

    I like the idea..... (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by kdog on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:57:08 AM EST
    Let's face it...the price of gas (including taxes) will not deter John Travolta from fueling the private jet, or Joe Blow Millionaire from fueling up the suv for a trip to Cape Cod.  If we suspend gas taxes at least the working schmucks can take a vacation too....we deserve it:)

    Not stupid (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:59:47 AM EST
    if it's what people want to hear - people don't pay attention to details, and while you're right, I'm just as bad - you tell me gas is going to be 20 cents cheaper, I'm heading to the gas station in my SUV and filling up!

    The other one is (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:04:36 AM EST
    that if you lower the gas tax  -- thereby raising demand -- the oil companies will HAVE TO raise prices due to demand!

    This tax holiday is a giveaway to oil companies.  If they want to give the tax back to us, let us claim it on our income taxes.


    I hate this idea (none / 0) (#70)
    by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:16:25 AM EST
    Does anyone remember right before the mid-term elections when oil prices dropped dramatically and all the oil companies pretended not to be buying the election? (I say pretend since they went up dramatically immediately after and I am conspiracy theorist)

    Didn't work too well then.


    I like Hillary... (none / 0) (#78)
    by sweetthings on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:25:29 AM EST
    But this is a supremely stupid idea. I know she's just pandering, but it's annoying pander.

    Hillary also wants excess profits tax--wants (none / 0) (#79)
    by jawbone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:30:01 AM EST
    to look into it.  Will only do gas tax holiday if offset by excess profits tax. IIRC.

    I'll drink a celebratory shot.... (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:49:51 AM EST
    ...for every point Hillary wins by today!

    Who's with me??

    Are you endorsing alcohol poisoning? (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:51:13 AM EST
    Shame, shame on you! ;-)

    LOL! I'll trade a hangover (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:56:39 AM EST
    ...for a double-digit win!

    Hugging the toilet bowl (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:58:49 AM EST
    I can't make it with any of you guys doing this.  I'm a light weight.

    A donation pledge (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by katiebird on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:57:21 AM EST
    Over at Confluence, riverdaughter's pledged to give Hillary $20 for each point over Obama.  I couldn't do that, but I've pledged $10.

    Waffle plate on ebay (5.00 / 2) (#37)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:50:32 AM EST
    Waffle plate

    LOL! (none / 0) (#41)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:52:14 AM EST
    Now THAT is American initiative at work!

    I love it! (none / 0) (#81)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:33:27 AM EST
    That plate would go perfectly with Obama toast - are they selling any of that on e-Bay yet (you know, like the Jesus toast)?  

    He didn't clean his plate?!? (none / 0) (#84)
    by Exeter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:43:25 AM EST
    I guess he could only stomach so much of the  proletariates' swill; )

    news channels until the polls close.

    BTD (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:06:36 AM EST
    Your writing on the Umbrella of Deterence issue is greatly appreciated.

    It's a discussion I think, well I think one of the reasons why Politics now fails us (it's not that Pols are inherently evil -- though some are, or tha Washington is inherently evil -- though it could use some spraywashing), it's that America has lost the ability to critically think about an issue.

    That talent, which I do think did exist in greater quantity in the distant past, has been more and more replaced by activism.

    Gendered delegates (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by MaryGM on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:09:11 AM EST
    I'm a PA-er, and when I went into the booth this morning (in Montgomery County) the delegate selections for the convention couldn't exceed a 4:3 male/female ratio.  Does anyone know why this is?  It seems ridiculous to me, because I couldn't find a good reason for it.

    By the way, no real representation of either candidate in my town.  If we were going on yard signs alone, Ron Paul would be the unanimous choice.

    Well (none / 0) (#71)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:17:33 AM EST
    The Democratic Party has a number of pro-diversity rules designed to ensure that the party of the people doesn't end up represented by a national convention of old white guys.

    Many states have rules mandating a minimum number of women, a minimum number of various minorities, a minimum number of GBLT delegates, a minimum number of disabled delegates, etc...


    It's also Equal Pay Day (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:43:48 AM EST
    This is the day many women catch up to what their male counterparts made between Jan 1 2007 thru Dec 31 2007. Only takes us 3 months and 22 days longer. . . . if we're lucky.

    ARG Clinton +16 (none / 0) (#3)
    by ineedalife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:30:19 AM EST
    Just saw at MYDD that the final ARG poll is Clinton +16 with 4% still undecided.

    LOL! (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:32:19 AM EST
    ARG is full of BS, but it's comforting BS.  Makes you feel warm and cozy.

    Yummy (none / 0) (#7)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:35:24 AM EST
    I could use a plateful of unrealistic hope right now.  :)

    'unrealistic hope' (none / 0) (#80)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:33:17 AM EST
    i have shivers from that line... sounds too much like a campaign i know...

    ARG is right! (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:39:18 AM EST
    I'll listen to Zogby over them, thank you!

    Arg Demographics: Basically the Old SUSA poll (none / 0) (#40)
    by Dan the Man on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:52:12 AM EST
    Arg Demographics: Basically the Old SUSA poll

    One striking fact:  the Arg survey Demographics results is basically the old SUSA result i.e. the results prior to the change in methodology due to Passover.  Let's compare:

    1.  "Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 49% to 47% among men (44% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 61% to 35%."
    Old SUSA:
    Men Clinton 48 Obama 44
    Women 59 37

    2.  "Clinton leads 66% to 30% among white voters (81% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 86% to 11% among African American voters (15% of likely Democratic primary voters)."
    Old SUSA:
    White Clinton 62 Obama 31
    A-A Clinton 15 Obama 85

    3.  "Clinton leads 61% to 35% among voters without a college degree (64% of likely voters) and Obama leads 50% to 46% among voters with a college degree."
    Old SUSA:
    College Grad Clinton 46 Obama 49
    Not College Grad Clinton 61 Obama 33

    I think the third demographics (ie college graduated) is most striking in it is similarities.


    ARG (none / 0) (#47)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:55:39 AM EST
    was on the money in Texas.

    I thought this was interesting (none / 0) (#5)
    by magster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:33:32 AM EST
    but I have no idea if he's full of beans.

    I haven't seen any other logical theory for how Obama could possibly win today.

    But if you dig beneath ... (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:55:27 AM EST
    the top soil of his analysis, he's just saying that the undecideds will break for Obama.

    That's just not going to happen.

    And he's comparing PA to SC!?!


    PA = SC, no way! (none / 0) (#69)
    by Fabian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:15:36 AM EST
    I think OH is the closest to PA.  I think that Obama learned a lesson from Ohio, but unsure how much that is worth.

    We'll see won't we? (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:35:27 AM EST
    Sen. Clinton on Larry King last night (none / 0) (#10)
    by halstoon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:36:20 AM EST
    said she and President Clinton would "campaign vigorously" for Sen. Obama this fall. That was good to hear. He'll need her support to become president.

    Now if he could just pull off an "Immaculate Election" in the Keystone State, we'll be all set!

    Please let us know (5.00 / 5) (#17)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:40:09 AM EST
    As soon as Sen Obama commits to do the same for her....<crickets>

    Or maybe they should let us know (none / 0) (#20)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:42:18 AM EST
    whe he agrees to do a national interview or presser again.

    As soon as she has more than a 10% (none / 0) (#109)
    by halstoon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:25:15 PM EST
    chance of winning, maybe that question becomes relevant, Marvin.

    That's kinda like asking McCain back in February if he'd campaign for Huckabee. What's the point? It ain't gonna happen.

    But by all means enjoy the rest of the campaign.


    I will, thanks (none / 0) (#112)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:33:09 PM EST
    Enjoyed the PA results, going to bed. Let's discuss when this is all over. Because after tonight's demographic showing by Sen Obama after spending $11 million I think you may want to recalculate your odds.

    Enjoy the big win. (none / 0) (#113)
    by halstoon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:58:03 PM EST
    I'll take the crow tonight, but I don't think 10 points is gonna get her a big swing in SDs.

    This election will go down as 'status quo' which = Obama in '08.


    What she actually said was: (none / 0) (#96)
    by felizarte on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:12:11 PM EST
    " . . . campaign vigorously for the democratic nominee . . " I think because she was sure it would be her.  But of course everyone else understands it to be her or Obama.

    No. Larry asked her directly (none / 0) (#107)
    by halstoon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:23:27 PM EST
    "Will you and President Clinton campaign vigorously for Sen. Obama if..."

    She said she would.


    Umbrellas and Tents (none / 0) (#11)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:37:13 AM EST
    Sort of interesting that BTD is into the Umbrella strategy, fits his medium.   What else do we have to do till this evening.  

    Shades of Tyler Perry (none / 0) (#19)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:41:41 AM EST
    from your remarks... hahaha!

    DId BTD explain why he lined out some (none / 0) (#86)
    by jawbone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:44:30 AM EST
    links in his post below on umbrella strategy?

    It's had to skim comments once their compressed.(excuses, excuses)


    Today is a bad day (none / 0) (#12)
    by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:37:47 AM EST
    I fell down the stairs this morning, the Bruins lost, and I've had a bad feeling about PA all week; I predict Hillary by 20 points.

    Happy Earth Day, I also predict an oil spill somewhere.

    Cheer up! (5.00 / 3) (#18)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:40:25 AM EST
    Maybe one of those nuclear power plants in IL will voluntarily report a spill...

    They did not have a good week either (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by BarnBabe on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:18:14 AM EST
    I mean, two earthquakes in Illinois, although, as a x-Californian, I would probably say the second one was an after shock, but I have not had time for that. Then they had gang Chicago shootouts over the weeks. Over 7 dead, 37 shot at. They seem to be having their own little war there.

    PS going to vote after work. I leave the office at 4:30 and I am at the polls at 4:40 and then I get to make my mark. I think we are back to paper this time. AND, it is a beautiful day in NE PA today. Sunny, clear skies, and looking positive.  


    I spilled oil in my kitchen last night... (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by jerry on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:44:09 AM EST
    does that work?

    Were you ... (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:45:29 AM EST
    making waffles?

    falafel (none / 0) (#92)
    by jerry on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:58:44 AM EST
    no really, I was making falafel.

    Open Thread drinking games? (none / 0) (#24)
    by jerry on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:45:03 AM EST

    Is it noon somewhere? (none / 0) (#30)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:46:44 AM EST
    Count me out.... (none / 0) (#43)
    by kdog on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:54:29 AM EST
    I was at a sales seminar aka 5-day booze bender last week....all I can recall are the endless stream of jaegerbombs.

    I couldn't even look at a drink right now...I don't know how alcoholics do it.


    Hmm (none / 0) (#26)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:45:40 AM EST
    I had expected Clinton by high single digits.  A double-digit win wouldn't necessarily be a game-changer, but it would be quite impressive.

    Please keep up my spirits (none / 0) (#28)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:45:55 AM EST
    as I never can forget the day of the Wisconsin primary here . . . and then that awful night.  So yeah, I'm as nervous as a first-time driver in winters here.  

    I keep telling myself that the campaign is so much better now with Maggie Williams at the helm.  We only had Clinton here for a day, and a day that events had to be cancelled for weather -- but PA has had Clinton there, working hard, for six weeks.

    Pennsylvanians admire hard work and experience and are so smart, they must want someone like them in the White House.:-)

    Holding your spirits for you (5.00 / 0) (#77)
    by BarnBabe on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:25:15 AM EST
    I know she will win here, the suspense is by how much. People are voting though and I think, even knowing she should win, they want to make it solid enough so no one can say it is a whim.

    No whim, just a solid win in a blue state. I think back to 2 months ago when Obamanators were telling Hillary to quit. I kept yelling, Nooooooooooooooooooo, give me a chance to vote first. Well, today is the day. Never thought it would happen. My spirits are up too.


    Polls are fundamentally useless. 20 point (none / 0) (#29)
    by tigercourse on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:46:18 AM EST
    spreads, Zogby just pullig numbers out of a hat... Since SurveyUSA has been the best, I'll ay Clinton wins by between 5-8.

    ZOgby doesn't pull nbrs out of a hat... (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:05:46 AM EST
    ...he pulls them out of somewhere else!

    From Bucks County, (none / 0) (#36)
    by Makarov on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:50:22 AM EST
    represented by Obama endorser Patrick Murphy (who ironically beat Republican freshman Mike Fitzpatrick last year due to Repub. gerrymandering that had moved a part of Dem rich NE Philly back in 2000), I'm predicting Clinton by 12.

    Even in my area which is more affluent than the working class area of Bristol/Levittown, there just hasn't been much visible Obama support in terms of signs or bumper stickers.  While completely anecdotal, I expected to see much more support for him around here.

    Zogby's WECM? (none / 0) (#42)
    by ineedalife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:54:13 AM EST
    White Ethnic Catholic Men. Zogby is blaming the racist Wops and Pollacks and Micks for his friend Obama's loss. Classy guy. Hillary can't win on merits.

    Unless he means albinos from Sudan?

    Sudanese Albinos for Hillary! (none / 0) (#46)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:55:39 AM EST
    It's a new microgroup, but very powerful!

    Word from family in Philly (none / 0) (#53)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:59:28 AM EST
    was that there was a huge line in Philly this morning. I don't think that has any special significance.

    of course it does (none / 0) (#57)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:00:40 AM EST
    they were all voting for Clinton!

    Seriously, can someone tell me why O supporters just assume that all the newly registered dems ware going to vote for O?


    Anecdotes mean nothing (none / 0) (#58)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:02:15 AM EST
    but where I'm from in Philly is essentially a swing area that leans Obama.

    they mean everything! (none / 0) (#67)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:07:24 AM EST
    Clinton by 16.  You read it here second.

    mindless optimism (none / 0) (#64)
    by Nasarius on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:06:28 AM EST
    It's the foundation of their entire movement, no?

    I say Hillary by 15+ (none / 0) (#59)
    by jeffhas on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:03:37 AM EST
    I think THEN it becomes a game changer as the MSM have to acknowledge what a HUGE victory it is...

    They start to pepper Obama with direct questions about why he failed so miserably... Why can't he get the support of blue collar whites?.... He said it was going to be close!

    The MSM continues a narrative that the wheels must be off the Obama bus, that they completely underestimated the 'bitter' comments, and Wright, Ayers, the terrible debate performance...

    Every night leading to the next primary they rummage through all that is wrong with his candidacy...

    Of course he loses Indiana... and even North Carolina closes fast!!  

    Seeing the light up ahead is really a train headed straight for him, he accepts the VP slot, and we all move to a united General Election.


    That's as far as I get...

    ... then I wake up.

    Oh well, one can hope.

    And then it would be fun (none / 0) (#62)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:05:46 AM EST
    to calculate the cost per vote to Obama for such a big loss.

    I'll be shocked if she wins by double-digits.


    Surely (none / 0) (#61)
    by Claw on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:05:03 AM EST
    PPP is just shooting from half court and hoping it goes in, right?  Either they'll look like geniuses or the bad prediction will be quickly forgotten.

    It's a good day! (none / 0) (#73)
    by ADC406 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:20:15 AM EST
    First off, Yeah for a great EARTH DAY!  It's exciting to see more and more ppl taking steps in becoming more green.  Secondly, hooray for Hillary.  I'm glad there is reporting on up-to-date information regarding the election.  However, I'm reading that Obama's camp is blaming the PA primaries on "Bush style" election fraud.  Apparently blacks can't vote!  BS.  It's a set up for him to try to win NC and other states for sympathy.  What a Wild Card to use among other things!

    waffling poll numbers (none / 0) (#74)
    by Lil on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:20:21 AM EST
    I feel a little sick trying to figure it out. Right now I think one of those 8 balls you turn upside down would be almost as conclusive.  I guess that means we will have to wait for the final poll results tonight. That said, I'm gonna get out of my house and try to stay positive. Kathy and Stella and others, I'm feeding off your energy...keep it up!

    I'm off to make GOTV calls for our girl soon (none / 0) (#75)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:24:01 AM EST
    so it'll be up to Stellaaaaaaaaa!

    (and probably best, since I goofed real bad on another post, owing to my giddiness about the day!)


    Suburbs the key in November (none / 0) (#76)
    by waldenpond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:24:31 AM EST
    Suburbs are key to Democratic victory

    per... Rep. Rahm Emanuel:

    [While overall Democratic primary turnout is up approximately 100 percent this year, Democratic turnout in suburban and exurban counties across America has been truly astonishing. My home state of Illinois provides a good example. In the 2008 Illinois Democratic primary, voter turnout increased by 67.4 percent statewide. With a favorite son on the ballot, that figure isn't terribly surprising. But dig deeper, and you find that turnout in large suburban counties exploded.]

    Per Dana Milbank, Homo Politicus:

    {The Democratic congressman from Chicago, a one-time ballet student, is known for his obscenity-laced speech;.........The night that Shuler and two dozen other Democratic candidates gave the party control of the House for the first time in twelve years, Emanuel jumped on a desk and, in the company of his staff, colleagues, and a Tribune reporter, had some advice for the Republican Party: "They can go f^ck themselves."]   :)

    Earth Day (none / 0) (#83)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:42:03 AM EST
    NYC Dept. of Sanitation is apparently celebrating it today by not picking up the trash on our street.

    Ours got picked up (none / 0) (#87)
    by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:47:00 AM EST
    Maybe your guys just have spring fever and are at the park?

    Maybe so (none / 0) (#88)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:49:57 AM EST
    They picked up the paper recyclables this morning, but the other stuff is just sitting there.

    It's a beautiful day, isn't it?  I'm home for lunch now and will have to force myself to go back to work in a little while.  


    It is beautiful out :) (none / 0) (#93)
    by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:00:28 PM EST
    I'm debating going to the park with my dog, but not sure how long I'll last with all the pollen out there. It's not too bad having the windows open, but extended park exposure, not sure.

    Great idea.... (none / 0) (#95)
    by kdog on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:07:35 PM EST
    if nobody picked up the garbage for a week, maybe we the people would realize how much senseless waste we produce.

    This is why I'm a proud litterbug...if all the unnecessary packaging was in the streets up to our ankles instead of hidden away in a landfill, maybe we would do away with all the excess packaging.  Don't know about you guys, but I don't need a bag within a box within a plastic wrapper when I buy dried peaches....one package would suffice.

    Littering...it's a public service:)


    Well it's a moot point (none / 0) (#97)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:13:41 PM EST
    b/c they just picked up the garbage.  I always have a sneaking suspicion that the recyclables don't really get recycled.

    Garbage up to the ankles reminds me of my trip to NOLA several years ago.  Walking down Bourbon Street on a Sunday morning, we were ankle-deep (at least) in empty go-cups.


    Wow (none / 0) (#89)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:52:11 AM EST
    Don't miss this from George McGovern.  A link worth clicking.

    Conversation outside my window (none / 0) (#90)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:52:24 AM EST
    between two AA men.  I kept hearing Obama's name and then I heard Bill Clinton.  The guy doing most of the talking is deploring the fact that Clinton has been accused of being racist.  "His m-f-ing cabinet was 98% black!"  A bit of an exaggeration, but I take it as a hopeful omen that I'm overhearing this conversation between two young men who would ordinarily be in Obama's demographic.

    ARG the new best pollster?? (none / 0) (#91)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:52:37 AM EST
    One hopes so!

    Hmmm... (none / 0) (#94)
    by nell on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:05:18 PM EST
    The news is reporting record breaking turnout in Philadelphia, which is probably in Obama's favor...

    I am going to keep wishing and hoping for double digits...

    Is there any way he would surprise us all and take over here? I started to get worried after Zogby came out with his most recent poll...remember California?

    Not so fast about Mellencamp (none / 0) (#99)
    by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:28:13 PM EST
    From the same site...but more recent...as in TODAY...

    By Rick Pearson

    PHILADELPHIA--So much for the belief that Indiana singer John Mellencamp endorsed Barack Obama.

    When Obama's campaign announced that Mellencamp would be performing at tonight's rally in Evansville, Ind., jump-starting the Hoosier state's May 6 presidential contest, it was widely perceived to be an endorsement of the Illinois senator's candidacy.

    Shortly after the Obama announcement, his rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton, entered her own Pennsylvania event with the sound of Mellencamp's "Small Town" playing. Her campaign also has Mellencamp's "This Is Our Country" on its artists list. But by performing at an Obama event, there were questions about how soon the songs would be removed from her campaign playlist.

    The answer, apparently, is that Mellencamp will continue to be played at Clinton campaign events. Clinton's campaign just announced that Mellencamp will perform on Saturday at rally the New York Democrat is planning in Indianapolis.

    Mellencamp had previously endorsed former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards for the Democratic nomination.

    Oops...forgot the link (none / 0) (#100)
    by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:29:23 PM EST
    Interesting Article about the war (none / 0) (#101)
    by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 12:40:39 PM EST
    It's on yahoo and the moderate voice.  I would post it but the link is really long and I don't know how to fix such things.  The title is "When will Young Americans get Angry about the War?"

    It reminds me of the divide between the have's and have not's with regard to who is paying the real price on the war.

    I just found out a good friend of mine is joining the military, partly due to his feeling of outrage at this discrepancy.  I agree it is a problem, but I'm also terrified that I'll lose a friend, and I wish I could stay in my "creative class" bubble.  I know people in the military, but this is the first person I would consider a close friend.

    That's easy.... (none / 0) (#104)
    by kdog on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:39:36 PM EST
    if and when we have a draft young people will get angry about the occupation.

    Until then, out of sight out of mind.


    I just voted (none / 0) (#103)
    by 1horseNag on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:37:39 PM EST
    It was my first experience with paper ballots. I put my ballot through the optical reader myself, and I got a numbered receipt of my ballot. It felt wonderful to know that my vote didn't just disappear into cyberspace.

    I live in NE Pa, a Hillary bastion, so my concept could be skewed on the state as a whole, but I predict Hillary by double digits. Maybe approaching 20%. Then you will see some real fear resulting in very bad behavior from the Obama side that will either be repeated or ignored completely by the MSM.

    A thought for post PA results and trolling (none / 0) (#105)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:58:56 PM EST

    Here is a simple proposal I have when we are hit by the inevitable trolls that will descend most likely after today's results: let's NOT engage them in any kind of response. Rather let's try to only respond with humor. We can see who can come up with the funniest non offensive answers. Kind of like a game.

    It will either help our good mood get better or salve the pain.

    Any takers?

    false, I'm deleting the comment (none / 0) (#108)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:25:13 PM EST
    saying Mellencamp endorsed Obama. He didn't, he's playing at a rally for him and will play for both of them in a few weeks. He says he is not endorsing Obama.

    Truckers For God (none / 0) (#110)
    by squeaky on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:08:46 PM EST
    A CATHOLIC priest who floated away under hundreds of helium balloons in a bid to raise money for his parish is missing off Brazil.


    Mr de Carli had been trying to break a 19-hour record for flying with balloons to raise money for a spiritual rest-stop for truckers

    link via digg

    Occupation News (none / 0) (#111)
    by squeaky on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:12:04 PM EST
    As Reuters noted, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's crackdown on the militias largely "backfired, exposing the weakness of his army and strengthening his political foes ahead of elections." Yet the Bush administration and its allies have attempted to portray this violence as a success, demonstrating the capability of the Iraqi army:

    Weakness of Maliki's army???, that is a laugh. It might just be that the Iraqi's are not so interested in killing their own at the behest of the US.

    According to a new Time magazine article, some U.S. troops are bristling at all the undue credit being lavished upon the Iraqi forces

    think progress