This is a further update on the "Key States in the 2008 Presidential Election" analysis I circulated last July. These are states in which the Democratic Presidential ticket needs to compete effectively in November in order to have a good chance of being elected. The Democratic Presidential ticket must win one or more of these key states, in addition to the 20 states with 252 electoral votes carried by the Democratic Presidential ticket in 2004.

Here's an update on the ten key states: Arkansas; Colorado; Florida; Iowa; Missouri; Nevada; New Mexico; North Carolina; Ohio; and Virginia.

• Arkansas (6 electoral votes): Hillary Clinton won with 70% of the vote (202,010) to Barack Obama's 27% (77,970) in this state's February 5th open primary. Since Independents were able to vote, it may be viewed as an especially good indicator of the Democratic candidates' potential appeal in November. Arkansas has voted for the winners of the last nine Presidential elections. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 17% in 1996 and by 18% in 1992. Since 1964, the only other Presidential election in which the Democratic ticket carried the state was 1976, when Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale won with a huge margin of 30%.

• Colorado (9 electoral votes): Obama won with 67% of the vote (79,344) to Clinton's 32% (38,587) in this state's February 5th closed caucuses. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Colorado by 5% in 2004. This was a lower margin than the 2000 election, in which the Republican ticket carried the state by almost 9%. The Republican ticket carried the state by 1% in 1996. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 4% in 1992. Colorado has voted Democratic in Presidential elections only three times since Franklin Roosevelt’s candidacies: Clinton-Gore in ’92; Johnson-Humphrey in ’64; and Truman-Barkley in ’48.

• Florida (27 electoral votes): Clinton won 50% of the vote (865,099) to Obama's 33% (571,333) in this state's January 29th closed nonbinding primary. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Florida by 5% in 2004. This was a higher margin than the 2000 election, in which the Republican ticket carried the state by less than 1% (537 votes) in a highly controversial election. Overall, the Republican ticket carried 58 of the state’s 67 counties in 2004. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 6% in 1996. The Republican ticket carried the state by 2% in 1992 and by 22% in 1988. Florida has voted for the Democratic Presidential ticket only three times since 1964: Johnson-Humphrey with 51% in 1964; Carter-Mondale with 52% in 1976; and Clinton-Gore with 48% in 1996. Republicans have not won the White House without winning Florida since 1924.

• Iowa (7 electoral votes): Obama won 38% of the vote to Clinton's 29% in this state's January 3rd open proportional caucuses on. (The Iowa Democratic Party has not released the actual vote count.) The Republican Presidential ticket carried Iowa by 1% in 2004. This was the first time the Republican ticket carried the state since 1984. The Democratic ticket carried the state by .032 percentage points in 2000. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 10% in 1996 and by 6% in 1992. The Democratic ticket carried the state by 10% in 1988, which represented the largest Democratic margin since 1964, when the Johnson-Humphrey ticket carried Iowa with a margin of 24%.

• Missouri (11 electoral votes): Obama won 49% of the vote (405,284) to Clinton's 48% (395,287) in this state's February 5th open primary. Since Independents were able to vote, it may be viewed as an especially good indicator of the Democratic candidates' potential appeal in November. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Missouri by 7% in 2004. This was a higher margin than the 2000 election, in which the Republican ticket carried the state by 3%. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried this state in 1996 by 6% and in 1992 by 10%. With one exception (1952), Missouri has voted with the winner of every Presidential election since 1900. No other state has this record of accuracy in Presidential elections.

• Nevada (5 electoral votes): Clinton won 51% of the vote (approximately 59,000) to Obama's 45% (approximately 52,000) in this state's January 19th closed proportional caucuses. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Nevada by 3% in 2004. This was a lower margin than the 2000 election in which the Republican ticket carried the state by 4%. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 1% in 1996 and by 3% in 1992. Since 1964, Nevada has voted for the Republican Presidential ticket, except for Clinton-Gore in 1992 and 1996.

• New Mexico (5 electoral votes): Clinton won 49% of the vote (68,084) to Obama's 48% (67,010) in this state's February 5th closed primary. New Mexico has had the two closest most recent Presidential elections. In 2004, the Republican Presidential ticket carried the state by approximately 6,800 votes (less than 1%). In 2000, the Democratic Presidential ticket carried the state by 365 votes (.006 percentage points). Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by almost 8% in 1996 and by 9% in 1992. The Republican ticket carried the state by 5% in 1988, which had been the sixth consecutive Presidential election in which the Republican ticket carried New Mexico.

• Ohio (20 electoral votes): Clinton won 54% of the vote (1,207,086) to Obama's 44% (979,025) in this state's March 4th open Democratic Presidential primary. Since Independents were able to vote, it may be viewed as an especially good indicator of the Democratic candidates' potential appeal in November. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Ohio by 2% in 2004. This was a slightly lower margin than the 2000 election in which the Republican ticket carried the state by less than 4%. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 6% in 1996 and by 2% in 1992. No Republican has ever been elected President without carrying Ohio.

• Virginia (13 electoral votes): Obama won 64% of the vote (620,919) to Clinton's 35% (344,477) in this state's February 12th open primary. Since Independents were able to vote, it may be viewed as an especially good indicator of the Democratic candidates' potential appeal in November. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Virginia by 9% in 2004. This was a slightly higher margin than the 2000 election in which the Republican ticket carried the state by 8%. The Republican ticket carried the state by 2% in 1996 and by 4% in 1992. Since 1964, the Democratic ticket has not carried the state, but the margins have often been close.

Of the ten key states, one has yet to hold its primary. It is:

• North Carolina (15 electoral votes): This state's Democratic Presidential primary will be held on May 6th. The Republican Presidential ticket carried North Carolina by 12% in 2004. This was a slightly lower margin than the 2000 election in which the Republican ticket carried the state by 13%. The Republican ticket carried the state by 5% in 1996 and by less than 1% in 1992. Since 1964, the Democratic Presidential ticket has carried this state only once – Carter-Mondale by 11% in 1976.

The winner of the popular vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in each of these key states will have a higher likelihood of carrying that state in November. This is a critical consideration in determining who is likely to be the Party's most successful Presidential candidate in the general election.

Summary

Thus far, Hillary Clinton has won five of these key states -- Arkansas (decisively), Florida (decisively, but in a primary that was not recognized by the Democratic National Committee for the purpose of selecting delegates to the Party's convention), Nevada (solidly), New Mexico (slightly), and Ohio (solidly). Barack Obama has won four -- Colorado (decisively), Iowa (solidly), Missouri (slightly), and Virginia (decisively). Clinton's popular vote total in these keys states was 3,179,630 (2,314,531 if Florida's vote is excluded), or 52.7%, vs. Obama's 2,852,885 (2,281,552 if Florida's vote is excluded), or 47.3%.

Of these states, Clinton's five have a total of 63 electoral votes, while Obama's four have a total of 40 electoral votes. Together with all of the 20 states that went Democratic in the 2004 Presidential election, both Clinton's and Obama's key states would have enough electoral votes to give the Democratic Presidential ticket victory in November.

This analysis does not assess, however, the possibility that the Republican Presidential ticket, headed by John McCain, might win one or more of the 20 states that went Democratic in 2004. Based on the margins of the Kerry-Edwards ticket, the 2004 Democratic states that might be winnable by the Republican Presidential ticket in 2008 are: Michigan (17 electoral votes, 3.4% Democratic margin); Minnesota (9, 3.5%); New Hampshire (4, 1.3%); Oregon (7, 4.1%); Pennsylvania (21, 2.5%); and Wisconsin (10, 0.4%). These six states have a total of 68 electoral votes.

What to Look for in Pennsylvania

The Keystone State is not one of the key states identified, since it did go Democratic in 2004 (albeit by only 2.5%) and 2000 (by only 4.2%) and has done so more often than not in the last ten Presidential elections. It is, however, one of the states that might be winnable by the Republican Presidential ticket in 2008.

Pennsylvania's population contains significant numbers of three of the four key voting constituencies that the Democratic Presidential ticket needs to carry to win the White House in 2008. They are:

• Catholics: Of those who voted in the 2004 elections, 27% were Catholic. With Catholic voters, the Republican Presidential ticket in 2004 had a margin of 5%. This was a shift of 7 percentage points from the Democratic Presidential ticket’s margin of 2% in 2000. The last Presidential election in which the Democratic ticket lost the Catholic voter to the Republican ticket was in 1988 (Dukakis-Bentsen vs. Bush-Quayle), when the margin of loss was also 5%. The Democratic Presidential ticket of Clinton-Gore in 1992 and 1996 carried the Catholic vote by margins of 9% and 16% respectively. Except for the 2000 election, every Presidential ticket in recent history that has won the Catholic vote has captured the Presidency.

In the 2004 Presidential election, Catholics in Pennsylvania voted for Kerry-Edwards over Bush-Cheney 51%-49%.

Approximately 29% of Pennsylvania's population is Catholic.

• Older Voters: Voters age 60 or older represented 24% of those voting in the 2004 election. Of these, voters age 65 or older represented 19% of those voting in the 2004 election. In the 2006 Congressional elections, voters age 60 or older represented 27% of those voting. This was an increase of 3 percentage points from the 2004 elections. Voters age 65 or older represented 16% of total voters in 2006. This was a decrease of 3 percentage points from the 2004 elections. Of voters age 65 or older, 77% are registered to vote. This represents a higher voter registration percentage than any other age group.

Beginning with the 1976 Presidential election, people age 65 or older have constituted a larger share of actual voters than their portion of the total voting-age population. In the 2004 and 2000 Presidential elections, voters age 65 or older had turnouts of 69% and 67% respectively, which were the highest turnout rates among all age groups.

In 2004, the Democratic ticket nationwide lost voters age 60 or older to the Republican ticket by a margin of 8%. This was a shift of 12 percentage points from the Democratic Presidential ticket’s margin of 4% in 2000. The Democratic ticket’s margin of loss among voters age 65 or older was 5%. The greater margin of loss among voters age 60 or older was due to the Republican ticket winning the votes of those aged 60-64 by a 15% margin. Among older white voters in 2000, however, the Republican ticket had a margin of 6%. More white older voters have backed the Republican Presidential ticket in seven of the last eight Presidential campaigns. Of those age 65 or older, 81% are white.

The last Presidential election in which the Democratic ticket lost older voters to the Republican ticket was in 1988 (Dukakis-Bentsen vs. Bush-Quayle), when the margin of loss was 1%.

Of voters age 60 or older, 54% voted for Republican House candidates in 2004 compared with 51% in 2002 and 48% in 2000. In the 1998 Congressional elections, 55% of older voters voted Republican. In the 2006 Congressional elections, voters age 60 or older voted for Democratic candidates by a 2% margin. This represented a shift to the Democratic Party of 9 percentage points from 2004. Of these older voters, 37% described themselves as Republicans, 36% as Democrats, and 27% as Independents.

Approximately 20% of Pennsylvania's population is over age 60, with nearly 16% over age 65. One in four Pennsylvania residents is over age 55.

• Women: In every Presidential election since 1980, a gender gap has existed. Women have more often supported Democratic candidates, while men have more often supported Republican candidates. In recent Presidential elections, the gap has ranged from 4% to 11%. In 1992, women voters supported the Democratic Presidential ticket in larger numbers than men by 4%. In the 2000 election, the Democratic ticket won the women's vote by 11%.
  
  Of the voters nationwide who are men, the Republican Presidential ticket in 2004 had a margin of 11%, which was the same margin as in 2000. Of the voters nationwide who are women, the Democratic Presidential ticket in 2004 had a margin of 3%. This represented a shift of 8 percentage points to the Republican Presidential ticket from the Democratic ticket’s margin among women voters in 2000. This decrease in the margin of women voting for the Democratic Presidential ticket may have been the single most important factor in the outcome of the 2004 Presidential election. This gender gap is seen in all age groups, ranging from a 4% Democratic margin among women voters under age 30 to 11% among women voters over age 60.

While women tend to vote more Democratic and men more Republican, even larger differences exist between married and unmarried voters. Women of voting age who have never been married, are divorced or are widowed comprise 42% of all registered women voters. In the 2000 Presidential election, unmarried women voters represented the same percentage of the electorate as Jewish, African-American, and Hispanic/Latino voters combined.

Of married women overall, 55% voted for the Republican Presidential ticket in 2004. Of married women with children, 59% voted for the Republican ticket in 2004. Approximately 60% of single women voted for the Democratic ticket in 2004. The Democratic Presidential ticket, however, has carried the unmarried segment of the electorate in every election since 1988.

Approximately 52% of Pennsylvania's population are women.

Pennsylvania does not, however, have a significant percentage of voters in this fourth key voting constituency:

• Hispanics/Latinos: Hispanic/Latino voters comprise 6% of the voting population nationwide. This represents an increase of 2% since 2000. With 13% of the total population and 17% of the population under age 18, Hispanics/Latinos are potentially the fastest-growing segment of the electorate. In 2004, the Democratic ticket nationwide won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 11%. This was a shift to the Republican Party of 25 percentage points from the Democratic Presidential ticket’s margin of 36% in 2000. In 1996, the Democratic ticket nationwide won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 51%. The 2004 Presidential election represented a continuing trend of Hispanic/Latino voters away from the Democratic ticket. The 44% share of the Hispanic/Latino vote achieved by the 2004 Republican Presidential ticket surpassed the previous high of 37% for the 1984 Republican Presidential ticket (Reagan-Bush). Although subsequent revisions of the Edison/Mitofsky National Elections Pool (NEP) exit poll reduced this share to 42%, the Republican Presidential ticket in 2004 won a greater share of the Hispanic/Latino vote than any other Republican Presidential ticket since the advent of Presidential election exit polls in 1972.

In the 2006 Congressional elections, Hispanic/Latino voters voted for Democratic candidates by a 19% margin. This represented a shift to the Democratic Party of 8 percentage points from 2004.

There is diversity among Hispanic/Latino voters nationwide. About two-thirds have roots in Mexico. The remainder includes voters with roots in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and other parts of Latin and South America.

Approximately 4% of Pennsylvania's population is Hispanic-Latino.

In the states that have held primaries/caucuses thus far, Clinton has proven to be more attractive to each of these four segments than Obama. What makes these four segments critical to the Democratic Party's chances in November? Unlike African-Americans or younger voters who have voted steadfastly for the Democratic Presidential ticket in recent elections, Catholics, Hispanics-Latinos, older voters and women have tended to vote less Democratic in recent Presidential elections. In the 2004 Presidential election, the Democratic Party suffered significant losses of support among each of these four critical constituent groups.

Thanks to Mr. Arnone for letting us reprint this. Now, what do you all think?