The Next Primary and Caucus Battles
Here are the next group of states to vote:
Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine, Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, Wisconsin and Hawaii.
After 28 state primaries and caucuses from Jan. 3 to Feb. 5, the Democratic calendar now airs out a bit. Mr. Obama planned to head to Louisiana, Maryland, and Virginia in the coming days, while Mrs. Clinton intended to campaign in Virginia, Maine which holds caucuses on Sunday and maybe Louisiana, which she and Mr. Obama have often visited, in part to draw attention to the slow pace of recovery from Hurricane Katrina.
It's not over then because Ohio and Texas still have to vote. Hillary has a 20 point lead in Ohio and is expected to quite well in Texas.
Both campaigns are already looking ahead to March 4, when Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont vote, producing the second-largest single day total of delegates, 534.
Another biggie is Pennsylvania, with 158 delegates, whose primary isn't until April 22. [More...]
Even if Obama wins all of the next week's primaries and caucuses, it's still not settled, says Newsweek:
The next nine contests between now and March 3 are thought to favor Obama. They include Kansas on Saturday, where he has the endorsement of Gov. Kathleen Sebelius; Louisiana, where a number of local officials are backing him, and the so-called Potomac Primary on Feb. 12, when voters from the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland cast their ballots. Even if Obama wins all nine races, which is possible, nothing will be settled.
On the Superdelegates, think of them as "brakes" on a car:
Superdelegates were created after George McGovern's landslide defeat in 1972; they're meant to act as a brake on the passions of the people, much as the Senate is often described as the "saucer that cools" the impetuous desires of that populist rabble in the House. If the pattern we've seen so far continues, and the pendulum doesn't swing decisively to either of the candidates, Clinton and Obama could each emerge with roughly half of the delegates they need to win the nomination. Then the decision would fall to the superdelegates to decide the election.
In 1984, Vice President Walter Mondale, the party establishment favorite, woke up on June 7, the day after the California primary, without a majority of the delegates. The superdelegates saved him. He knew every one of them by name, and how to find them on short notice. If it weren't for their support, Gary Hart would have been the nominee.
Then there is Florida and Michigan. I disagree with those lobbying for new primaries to be held in those states. I also think their delegates will be seated, but most likely only after everyone arrives in Denver. The decision is up to the Denver National Committee credentials committee.
Obama and Edwards withdrew from the Michigan ballot, they weren't left off it. That was Obama's choice, as it was Edwards'. Obama, Hillary and Edwards were on the Florida ballot and everyone was free to vote. They shouldn't get a redo. The only issue should be whether and when they get seated in Denver. As to how that decision is made by the Credentials Committee, and who is on the committee, see this My DD diary.
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