Exit Polls: Why The Media Is A Joke

By Big Tent Democrat

So I am watching Tweety to get a read on how the early exit polls are going (if Tweety is very happy, the exit polls provide good news for Obama), not that unweighted early exit polls are that helpful. But I got instead yet another of example of how stupid the Media can be. (BTW, the early exit polls are rumored to again favor Obama.)

But now on to the stupidity. The networks decided to ask a question about trade. And it turns out that most Dem voters think trade is bad. So the conclusion is "trade big issue tonight!" Ask a question about an issue then conclude it was a big issue! How stupid can you get?

Hey, ask them about the pledge of allegiance. I bet that can be the "big issue" too. Unbelievably dumb.

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    One of the polls (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Steve M on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:39:21 PM EST
    I think it was the PPP poll, actually had respondents listing Iraq as the #1 issue.  I'll eat my hat if the economy doesn't end up as #1 in the exit polls, like it has in every other state so far.

    Gallup showed a big Hillary turnaround today (none / 0) (#2)
    by MKS on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:11:21 PM EST
    So, I'm not believing a big win by anyone...

    Do you have a link? (none / 0) (#15)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:38:39 PM EST
    Or are you referring to the Gallup tracking poll?

    National Gallup tracking poll (none / 0) (#18)
    by MKS on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:12:53 PM EST
    Exit polls show the economy and (none / 0) (#3)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:18:44 PM EST
    healthcare are by far the two biggest issues. I guess they must believe Obama is better there. I am positive he is not on healthcare.

    Politico? (none / 0) (#4)
    by americanincanada on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:19:40 PM EST
    I am not believing a huge win for anyone today, although it would be huge for Hillary to be close or win herself.

    I certainly am not going to believe Politico after the delegate story today.

    CNN is being very non-committal about the exit polls and being very clear that they are not saying anyone has the upper hand.

    Though Wolf did just ask someone why (none / 0) (#5)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:21:40 PM EST
    HC can't win in Wisconsin and then quickly added, not to say that she won't win.

    Wolf makes me laugh... (none / 0) (#8)
    by americanincanada on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:29:31 PM EST
    I know, that cracked me up. He is hedging big time. Right Pundit.com has some really interesting info from exit polls up.


    Republican Primary Results (Wisconsin):
    6pm Update: McCain +8
    More men than women voted Rep.
    GOP voters were older than Dem. voters by wide margin.

    Democrat Primary Results (Wisconsin):

    5:53 Update- Early Exit Poll: Clinton 49 Obama 45 Hold onto your Hats! It's gonna be a long night!
    This poll doesn't account for evening voters (professionals) who are now getting off work and heading to the polls.
    Bad Economy is on Dem. Wisconsin Voters mind.

    15% of Dem voters had never voted before. Half think the economy is very bad. More women than men voted Dem.

    Dem. voters, or at least voters who voted for a Dem. candidate outnumber Republican voters by LARGE margin. Could this signify Republican cross-over? Probably not as it's been seen in other states without open primaries.
    (February 19th, 2008.)


    Whatever (none / 0) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:30:20 PM EST
    Hmmm (none / 0) (#11)
    by americanincanada on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:34:09 PM EST
    CNN's exit poll numbers almost match this.

    Women voters voting dem 57%
    Far less women voting repub
    64% of dem voters identify as dems
    9% repub

    CNN saying the gender gap lives


    Yes, and that may be a lot of crossover, too (none / 0) (#17)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:57:05 PM EST
    -- always a popular sport at the polls here in Wisconsin.  Btw, turnout looks big in Milwaukee, where several polls have had to get more ballots.  (There are important local races in the city, too.)

    An important point to keep in mind about exit polls here is that, in past, exit polling of daytime voters has thrown off results -- for example, the significant number of elderly so far.  Now is when a lot of voters finally can get to the polls, especially working-class (with less autonomy over hours) or parents taking turns so one stays with the kids.  


    so the "beating women" thing might be (none / 0) (#19)
    by athyrio on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:32:01 PM EST
    republican women crossing over...

    Can I pretend to believe this one? (none / 0) (#12)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:34:42 PM EST
    I didn't realize the polls don't close until 9:00. I think we should all take a nap and wait up for Hawaii!

    Do the analysts know real exit polls while they are yapping right now?


    Why is Wolf (none / 0) (#10)
    by IndependantThinker on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:31:13 PM EST
    using this Caputo lady, Hillary's former press secretary. Is it just me or she just keeps missing opportunities to make a point for Hillary. She doesn't seem very bright or can't think on her feet.

    BTW, does anyone think that if Huckabee was asked to leave the race by his party's leaders he wouldn't? If yes, why aren't they asking? Doesn't this help Obama as much as hurt McCain?


    Help Obama? Not if it keep the Republicans (none / 0) (#14)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:38:01 PM EST
    in their own primary. I've read that the leaders have hinted to Huckabee to drop out but he said no.

    Hahaha (none / 0) (#6)
    by ajain on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:22:14 PM EST
    This is why I love this site.
    The Media really is ridiculous.

    Immigration was the last "big" issue (none / 0) (#7)
    by herb the verb on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:26:01 PM EST
    they were fixated on before the Iowa caucus. Not any of the Democratic issues, a divisive Republican one....

    The problem with the media (none / 0) (#13)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:37:07 PM EST
    is that they pretend they know a lot more about things than they really do.  

    The vast majority of political pundits understand inside baseball and that's about it.  Throwing a data set in front of them is about as useful as throwing a sanskrit proverbs book in front of them.