Exit Polls - Wisconsin Turnout

By Big Tent Democrat

CNN reports that the turnout broke down as follows:

White - 88%
A-A - 8%
Latino - 4%

Male - 43%
Female - 57%

This is a good demo breakdown for Clinton. But the early exits reports are rumored to have Obama WINNING women 51-49! If that holds, that is the big story of the night. It would be a shocking result and a big win for Obama.

Time will Tell.

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    I lied to Fox exit poll. (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:47:52 PM EST

    Completely understandable, under (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:49:32 PM EST
    the circumstances.

    I would guess that many of the (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by athyrio on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:56:18 PM EST
    older voters, did so by absentee due to weather...

    I don't enjoy exit polls much (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by spit on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:13:00 PM EST
    as I consider them even more suspect than pre-election polls, but I do enjoy watching everybody all over the blogs try to parse them. It's amusing as hell to me.

    Time will tell.

    Doubtful (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by jcsf on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:31:12 PM EST
    That those numbers hold, as is. Still, the trend, even for those white women voters, is giving Obama more than has been happening previously. As has been said over at TPM, "Even so, exit polls from this year's Democratic presidential contests and from Wisconsin's 2004 Democratic presidential primary sketch a picture of a state whose voters are practically tailor-made to resuscitate Clinton's campaign."

    That is ridiculous (none / 0) (#41)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:33:06 PM EST
    Tailor made? Come now.

    Wisconsin has been Obama country for months now.

    Now this magnitude of won and taking women makes this a BIG Obama win. No need to overstate this.


    Not according to the demographics (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by jcsf on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:38:41 PM EST
    Here is the link.

    For starters, nine in 10 of Wisconsin's Democratic voters in 2004 were white, far more than the six in 10 so far in this year's primaries. In a campaign in which race has formed a clear dividing line between her and Obama, Clinton has so far forged an 11 percentage point advantage among whites, helping offset his lopsided edge among blacks.

    Forty-eight percent of Wisconsin's Democrats were male, 5 percentage points more than the national average so far this year for Democrats. Men have leaned toward Obama, but that advantage is swamped by the state's huge proportion of whites.

    Working class people, especially those who are white, are another group Clinton has been carrying, and Wisconsin Democrats include large proportions of them compared to the rest of the nation's Democrats. About four in 10 voters in Democratic primaries across the nation this year earn less than $50,000 annually, compared to half in Wisconsin's 2004 contest.

    Clinton has a slight national advantage over Obama with that group, but a huge 23 point edge among whites in that income category. And while about half that income group is white among Democrats nationally, more than eight in 10 in Wisconsin are, giving her fertile territory for votes.

    Nationally and in Wisconsin, just over half of voting Democrats had no college degree. But again there is a racial advantage for Clinton in Wisconsin, where nearly nine in 10 Democrats without those degrees are white, compared to about half nationally.

    Wisconsin Democrats also tend to be a bit older than the national Democratic average. Young people of all races have been a pivotal driver of Obama's candidacy, while the elderly have leaned more toward Clinton.

    Even the state's political views tilt slightly toward Clinton, who has trailed Obama among the party's most liberal voters. Those calling themselves very liberal comprised 13 percent of Wisconsin's 2004 voters, but have made up 19 percent of Democratic voters nationally so far this year.

    "It's a place where she should do better than everybody expects her to do," said Mark Mellman, another Democratic pollster not affiliated with a presidential campaign.

    At any rate, that's 7 points, to the argument.  Refute all 7.  

    NOTE:  Obama's advantages are also mentioned in the article - is it enough to offset?

    Obama has some built-in advantages in Wisconsin: It's next door to his home state and the Democratic governor, Jim Doyle, actively supports him.


    White voters now are a disadvantage for Obama? (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:40:50 PM EST
    So what chance does he have in a General Election?

    Snark, not an argument (none / 0) (#52)
    by jcsf on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:43:36 PM EST
    There's always been an inbuilt advantage to white older women, especially, demographically, when you take into account POLICY DIFFERENCES ARE MINIMAL.

    As you point out, IF (and I consider this a big if, as I think the exit polls will simply be wrong here), Obama wins white women, that would be stunning.  


    In WOMEN (none / 0) (#63)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:57:15 PM EST
    Not whites. WOMEN is the issue.

    Geographics matter, too -- (none / 0) (#50)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:41:26 PM EST
    and Obama's territory is just across the border for more than a third of Wisconsin's population -- in the southeastern corner of the state.

    A Reminder (5.00 / 2) (#70)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:07:53 PM EST
    Here is what the second wave of exit polls said about MA and NJ on Super Tuesday:

    Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48
    New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47

    Here is what the vote ended up being:

    MA: Obama 41, Clinton 57
    NJ: Obama 44, Clintom 54

    Now, personally, I expect Obama will carry Wisconsin, and maybe even by a wide margin, but exit polls are basically worthless because they might be right, but they might also be very, very wrong.  

    Agreed, generally (5.00 / 1) (#78)
    by spit on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:21:41 PM EST
    My problem with them is that by the time you have a full sample across the whole of the available time to vote, you might as well wait for the actual results.

    There's simply no way of knowing whether morning and afternoon voters are a representative sample without the evening voters, until the thing is done. It's possible that they are, but it's also possible that they aren't, and nothing in the data can help work that out one way or t'other.

    My precinct is usually very quiet until 5:00. Talking to the workers there, I've gotten the impression that something like half of the vote in this precinct comes in during that last 3 hours. That might not hold true everywhere, but it does mean that I take all early exits with a massive grain of salt. They're interesting once everything is done to see how things broke down, but they're terrible as indicators before that. Even when they turn out to be correct, which of course they sometimes do.

    That said, I have always expected that WI would go Obama. There's more to that than these demographics, IMO. The politics of WI are different from the politics of CA or MA (or even OH, where I could argue either way).


    BTD, since the race won't be close, most (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:18:05 PM EST
    likely, we need a current make fun of the media thread. Bernstein just said she played the race card in SC and the misogyny card in WI and it was really ugly. I'm about ready to try Fox.

    Heh (5.00 / 2) (#77)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:20:44 PM EST
    I'm half serious. And HE is the one who said (none / 0) (#83)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:28:58 PM EST
    her playing the gender card was really ugly, not me, in case that wasn't clear. What a jerk he is.

    I've busted out the beer since I know that the low info folks like Hillary and me drink it. So I have one OT comment for you - my Vols are #2! The men, not the women! We play #1 Memphis Saturday and assuming we don't let Auburn upset us at home tomorrow, we'll be playing for #1. I could die happy even if we lose out the rest of the year.


    Oh, I TOTALLY second that (5.00 / 1) (#81)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:25:45 PM EST
    I'll add it to the live thread I just put up (5.00 / 1) (#84)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:30:44 PM EST
    Huffington Post's Media (5.00 / 1) (#86)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:33:57 PM EST
    has not one, but three articles up at present referencing HRC:  Cavuto, head of Liz Claiborne, and, I think, NBC.  Lots of material available.

    Also, Politico on exit polls (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:31:55 PM EST
    on the exit polls:

    The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton's core groups of voters -- women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes -- while giving up none of his own. However, Clinton looked to be winning senior citizens, the officials said.

    51 to 49 (none / 0) (#1)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:39:01 PM EST
    is not a big win for Obama. It's a slight win.  Also, let's wait to get the breakdown of women by age and race -- and the age of voters.

    I wouldn't be surprised if college women went for Obama and if that's the bulk of his female support, I don't think it's a story at all.

    Daytime exit polls problematic in past (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:04:16 PM EST
    in Wisconsin (just posted this on earlier thread, hope it's okay to note it here; I hadn't seen the new thread).  Only now can a lot of voters go to the polls -- working-class voters, parents taking turns watching the kids, etc.

    Turnout looks to be big, as several polling places in Milwaukee had to get extra ballots.  There are significant local races in my city, unlike a lot of Wisconsin -- and that will help turnout for Obama.

    But turnout always is high in Wisconsin, compared to other states.  We prepared for 35% turnout, higher than in a lot of states so far, and it looks like it's going higher.  Yes, it was cccccold today, it's still icy, but it wasn't snowy and it was SUNNY.  In the state with the highest SAD rate (seasonal affective disorder), we get all energetic with sunshine at this time of year.

    So there are several factors to really confound any attempts at predictions.


    lol Cream, I read on DKos that the later (none / 0) (#32)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:07:55 PM EST
    voters are professionals who have to vote after work. Gee, I guess all the non-professionals must work second shift. Where I used to work, we all left during the day to vote and the hourly workers had to wait until night. It's just funny to read all the spin (even my own :) ).

    So, I gather all the low information voters (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:15:28 PM EST
    who lack college degrees have already voted.  

    Yep, I'm a professional with autonomy (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:20:50 PM EST
    so I vote midday, when I can get away -- so with the second-shifters, for shorter lines (or none at all) during the daytime.  When I worked an hourly job, I hardly could get away to the restroom, much less to vote.  

    My polling place is only half a block away, so I can watch out my window to see how many cars are pulling up -- and their models.  Not seeing BMW's and Audis now but seeing a lot of SUV's -- that's the parents taking turns, so one votes while the other feeds the kids and keeps them from watching porn channels. :-)


    Tarot called it for me (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by Prabhata on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:55:38 PM EST
    I know it's stupid to those who don't do Tarot, but when I asked, I got III of Cups.  It's three women lifting a cup in a celebrating dancing scene.  To me, it said that women would vote strongly for Hillary.



    I really wish I could agree w/you (none / 0) (#3)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:41:00 PM EST
    Jeralyn, but since the vast majority of my non-college-age female friends and acquaintances voted for Obama in CA, I'll reserve judgment for now. (Maybe we ARE the weaker sex, at least when a charismatic man is on the scene!)

    Most Women (if not all) (none / 0) (#87)
    by squeaky on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:40:11 PM EST
    In NYC, that I know, also voted Obama.

    if white women dip below 55% for Hillary (none / 0) (#4)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:42:25 PM EST
    she's in trouble.

    Excuse me (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:42:28 PM EST
    Obama being close with women is a big win. Obama WINNING WOMEN is a big win!

    If these number hold, it is a 20 point win for Obama.


    Maybe its the HRC effect. (none / 0) (#6)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:44:21 PM EST
    Who will admit they voted for her?

    Sure (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:46:05 PM EST
    Refusal rates all that.

    Obama has underperformed the exit polls mostly.

    I am just telling you what I read.


    Yes, yes; but I'm following your prior (none / 0) (#13)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:47:48 PM EST
    advice to distrust exit polls, except Wonkette, that is.  

    Distrust all of them (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:51:13 PM EST
    the are just not that reliable.

    If they were, Obama would have won Calfiornia and Massachusetts.


    Now I feel ever so much better. (none / 0) (#22)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:52:35 PM EST
    It actually is called (none / 0) (#72)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:12:30 PM EST
    the Embarrassed Voter effect; excellent study on pollster.com a while ago about women not wanting to tell their husbands how they voted.

    Around me, the men were more reluctant to admit to me how they voted.  But then they did, and they all voted for Obama.  Even the retiree in the family who had said he was going to vote for Clinton because he wanted the economy of the '90s again.  But when it came down to it today . . . well, you will not be surprised to know that all the men found Obama to be just more "exciting," as one said.

    Me, I have enough excitement in my life already.  I guess I've got to get more exciting to them, huh?


    Now I wish you hadn't gone to the (none / 0) (#79)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:24:49 PM EST
    polls en masse.  Leave those guys home next time.

    It ended being mom and daughter (5.00 / 1) (#89)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:49:24 PM EST
    to the polls together, as the men all suddenly had things to do -- like going to look at sports cars and taking the cat to the vet.  I'm not kidding.  Can't drive a convertible here for months yet, cat is fine, and I should have known something was up, huh?

    If the numbers hold . . . (none / 0) (#7)
    by AF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:44:40 PM EST
    A VERY big if. Pre-election polls are better predictors than afternoon exits.

    Wisconsin not friendly to women in office (none / 0) (#57)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:51:57 PM EST
    historically -- one of the worst states for women.  I've said before that is a big factor here.  Wisconsin was one of the last states still without ever a woman in Congress, not until 1999 -- and then it was only Madison (very unlike the rest of the state in every way) that elected Tammy Baldwin.  

    Only a few years ago, my district elected our second woman and first AA in Congress -- because it has most of the AAs in Wisconsin.  (And she has had a lot of problems, not reassuring to most Wisconsinites.) Wisconsin did elect its first woman lieutenant governor, too, but that ticket always is carried by the governor -- and he is for Obama (she endorsed Clinton; there's a story there between those two at the top. . . .).

    And in Milwaukee, which elected its first alderwoman more than half a century ago, there are no alderwomen now . . . and none likely who are running today.  This is not, nor has it ever been, a "progressive" state for women -- and Milwaukee is more ahead in this in many ways than much of the state.  That's why I couldn't call this for Clinton.  If she does well at all, she will truly be a sign of "change" and "hope" here.


    senior turn out? (none / 0) (#8)
    by dissenter on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:45:09 PM EST
    That could tell a lot. Anyone know?

    cream city? Ben Masel? (none / 0) (#11)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:46:35 PM EST
    See up re daytime exit polling (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:07:28 PM EST
    as that always artificially boosts elderly turnout, at least in past.  (I saw all different ages at my polls and heading to them, but I'm in an area of quite a mix of everything from elderly to lots of students.)

    One anecdote (none / 0) (#17)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:50:29 PM EST
    Guy at my polling place was asking if he could take ballots back for 86 and 90 year old sisters in his building. Just across the street, but not doable on ice. Alas, not legal.

    per ABC exits.... (none / 0) (#9)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:46:03 PM EST
    The preliminary results also indicate that more seniors than usual are voting in the Democratic race -- up from their 2004 level, and also potentially a high for Democratic voters this cycle, though again it'll take final data later tonight to see that holds.

    They also say nearly half of Dem's made their mind up over a month ago.


    That is good (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by dissenter on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:47:29 PM EST
    My mom (not in WI) is a hard core dem but will not vote for Obama for any reason. I sat and talked with her little group of friends and it was the same thing. If he gets the nomination, there is no hope in FL.

    Because of the delegates won't be (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:48:59 PM EST
    counted issue?

    That too (none / 0) (#20)
    by dissenter on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:51:42 PM EST
    But seniors just don't like the guy. They didn't at my caucus either. His supporters were also really rude to seniors at my caucus...it was like get out of the way you don't matter any longer. It was really astonishing. And very stupid. Mom was also pissed off at the Michelle's comment yesterday on being proud of her country for the first time. My mom was like "what nobody else has ever done anything good in this country. We fought World War II." That is his problem and it will be big in FL

    I have an AA woman friend (50 ish) (none / 0) (#71)
    by hairspray on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:12:19 PM EST
    who dislikes Obama a lot.  She says that he is arrogant and refuses to acknowledge whose shoulders he is standing one.  There is definitely an ageism issue here.

    This exit poll also says that change is by far (none / 0) (#18)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:50:47 PM EST
    the most important character attribute. That sounds good for Obama. Shoot.

    what we can't know is (none / 0) (#42)
    by sancho on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:33:46 PM EST
    how many republicans are crossing over to vote for obama against clinton and then again for mccain in the fall. if obama is truly getting republican and independent votes, then he'll win comfortably in november. i dont think that will happen but i'm just a one-person poll. :)

    Ouch (none / 0) (#2)
    by rebecca on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:39:32 PM EST
    They also had

    Democrats at     64 %
    Independents at  27%
    Republicans at    9%

    That seems to be more Obama friendly numbers for him.  I really hope the women numbers you listed don't hold.  

    64% Dems (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:58:57 PM EST
    Not a bad number for Hillary.  Not great, but one of the posters cited a prior primary where Dems were something like 52% and that would be very bad for Clinton, IMO.

    The weightings on these things have been so off, I can't take them seriously.  Yes, if these numbers hold, they are good for Obama.  But these numbers will not hold, they will change.  Whether they will change in ways that helps or hurts Obama, I don't know, but they will change.


    Technically, everyone's Independent here. (none / 0) (#21)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:52:21 PM EST
    No registration by Party.

    Apparently the people who answered (none / 0) (#24)
    by rebecca on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:58:37 PM EST
    the question felt they weren't all independents lol.

    MSNBC just said (none / 0) (#26)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:59:40 PM EST
    the exit polls showed top issues were economy, war in Iraq and health care, in that order. I think the economy and health care favor Hillary.

    I'll go out on a limb here and say the student and youth vote will be huge and very determinative.

    Cnn reports (none / 0) (#69)
    by IndependantThinker on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:06:56 PM EST
    that NAFTA is blamed for a lot of the economic problems in Wisconsin and Hillary is blamed for it.

    more stats (none / 0) (#27)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:01:04 PM EST
    Exit polls show independents cast about one-quarter of the ballots in the Democratic race, and roughly 15% of the electorate were first-time voters.

    NBC just said more than a third of voters in (none / 0) (#30)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:04:41 PM EST
    Virginia were first timers so that number may not be that significant (if the number is even right).

    For REAL numbers (none / 0) (#28)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:03:27 PM EST
    County website links.

    Milwaukee and the smallest population counties don't post returns til next AM.

    The following have usually had results up early:
    Douglas, Bayfield, Polk, Dunn, Chippewa, Eau Claire, Marathon, Portage, Brown, Outagamie, Winnebago, Trempeleau, LaCrosse, Monroe, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Washington, Ozaukee, Rock, Kenosha, Racine.

    Dane gets rural townships early, heavily Obama downtown Madison districts always come in last.

    Milwaukee, we'll hopefully see enough improvement to have numbers by Weednesday morning.

    If you want to pick one early County as predictive of the rest, go with Rock. Slightly more favorable to Clinton than the State as a whole, so take the Rock result and add 4% to Obama.

    Key delegate County: Eau Claire

    Goes to Obama, but by how much?

    It's split between Kind's 3d District, and Obey's. Obama's close to getting 4 of the 6 delegates from each, but can't without taking EC big. If Clinton has 46% here, she likely saves both delegates. Dunn's also split between these CDs.

    To give folks an idea (none / 0) (#33)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:10:52 PM EST
    In a poll that had it 47-42 Obama, the gender breakdown was this:

           ALL      MEN     WOMEN                                                                  

    Barack Obama       47%       53%       42%
    Hillary Clinton    42%       36%       47%          
    Undecided          11%       11%       11%            

    If Clinton's 2 point loss among women becomes a 5 point win among women for Clinton, then she can "win " the night. this is the key number.  

    The RCP (none / 0) (#45)
    by AF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:36:58 PM EST
    average has Obama up by 4 pts.  Hillary doesn't win the night unless she wins.  

    Not in my view (none / 0) (#51)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:42:07 PM EST
    But it seems academic now.

    Obama wins pretty big it looks like.


    The best available evidence (none / 0) (#75)
    by AF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:18:10 PM EST
    remains the pre-elections polls.  They predict a narrow win for Obama.  To this moment, they are both the best baseline to measure who "wins the night" and the best predictor of what the results will be.

    FWIW (none / 0) (#37)
    by magster on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:24:55 PM EST
    Obama blowout according to National Review "insider"

    Sure (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:28:19 PM EST
    I can do the math.

    The question is is it right?


    We'll have some idea (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:30:06 PM EST
    when the clock strikes 9 and CNN puts up its first weighting.

    More likely (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:33:55 PM EST
    NBC calls the race at 9 the way it is going.

    probably (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:36:25 PM EST
    Exit polls are rarely that wrong.

    Except in 2004. (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:39:52 PM EST
    No, not even 2004 (none / 0) (#53)
    by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:43:59 PM EST
    And Super Tuesday (none / 0) (#76)
    by AF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:19:52 PM EST
    Sure (none / 0) (#49)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:41:19 PM EST
    The question is 10 or 20.

    already forgotten NH? (none / 0) (#67)
    by demschmem on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:02:57 PM EST
    Trying to interpret (none / 0) (#54)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:46:27 PM EST
    the networks have the full exit polls, including who voted for who, they just can't broadcast them till polls close.  I'm trying to read into their commentary, like if they discuss "what if Obama wins by huge amounts". I'm not hearing anything like that yet, is anyone else?

    Perhaps You Won't (none / 0) (#55)
    by BDB on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:49:38 PM EST
    Didn't they end up looking like idiots on Super Tuesday over Massachusetts, NJ, and California?

    Does anyone know the absentee situation in Wisconsin?


    I dunno (none / 0) (#58)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:52:20 PM EST
    but these were the early exits -

    Clinton 35%
    Obama 61

    Clinton 49%
    Obama 51

    Obama 57%
    Clinton 43%


    Very bad frankly, because of the loss of women.

    Let me stick the final knife in... (none / 0) (#82)
    by jor on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:28:57 PM EST
    ... If hillary loses white women in wisconsin today she is in a world of trouble. Combined with her declining lead with hispanics, this could be the end.

    See below re CNN/Dobbs just now (nt) (none / 0) (#64)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:57:24 PM EST
    had to turn off the news (none / 0) (#56)
    by NJDem on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:50:02 PM EST
    so I can't answer Jeralyn's question.  

    But, I have one of my own: are these exit polls all from the same area or a sampling from a bunch of (diverse?) locals?  Thanks!

    But, (none / 0) (#60)
    by OldCoastie on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:54:49 PM EST
    absentee ballots won't be reflected in the exit polls... any numbers on those?

    Milwaukee started counting them (none / 0) (#68)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:06:50 PM EST
    this morning, as soon as the polls opened.  (See City of Milwaukee elections site -- with the site of the counting so that the public could observe.)

    Dunno about the rest of the state, though.  When I lived in the burbs, and even more when I lived in the ex-urbs/farm country, I think they didn't get around to it until after the polls closed . . . and in the rural area, after a beer or two across the road.  (I am SO glad to be back in the big city.:-)


    CNN/Dobbs just called it for Obama (none / 0) (#62)
    by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:56:38 PM EST
    essentially, based on exit polls -- and our polls are still open for an hour in Wisconsin.  I despise that.  Media finally were forced to back off, in national elections, from calling Eastern states until Western polls closed -- but they apparently didn't think that meant primary season, too.  

    But to come so close to calling it not in some states while other states still are voting but, in this case, calling it in a state that itself still is voting is just bad journalism as well as bad for the democratic process.  But it must be good for ratings.

    It's got to really be bad then. CNN has been (5.00 / 1) (#66)
    by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:01:25 PM EST
    very conservative in calling the races early.

    Well (none / 0) (#65)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:58:40 PM EST
    I never bought into the idea that it has much of an effect.

    What it is is bad reporting.

    Exit polls are not that accurate.


    It is bad to do. (none / 0) (#73)
    by jcsf on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:13:48 PM EST
    Bad form at the very least, and disrespectful of voters.

    I was watching (none / 0) (#80)
    by americanincanada on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:24:53 PM EST
    and didn't get that take at all. Did I miss something?