Hillary Maintains Lead in Rhode Island Poll

A Brown University, Rhode Island poll taken Feb. 9-10 shows Hillary Clinton maintaining her lead over Barack Obama, 36% to 28% with 27% uncommitted and 9% undecided. In September, Hillary's support was at 35%, so she gained a point. Obama gained substantially, from 16%
to 27%, garnering the votes of those previously for Edwards, Biden, Dodd, etc., but he's still 9 points behind Hillary. The undecided/uncommitted votes now are at 36%, in September they were at 35%.

Rhode Island's primary day is March 4, same as Texas and Ohio. The full poll results are here (pdf.) [More...]

On the issue of beating John McCain, which has been prominently in the news the past few days, it breaks down like this:

If the presidential general election were held today, would you vote for:

32% Republican John McCain or 43% Democrat Hillary Clinton? 25% don’t know or no answer

If the presidential general election were held today, would you vote for: 30% Republican John McCain or 42% Democrat Barack Obama? 28% don’t know or no answer.

In other words, both Hillary and Obama would beat McCain there.

If I were Hillary, I'd think about a few short trips to Rhode Island to excite the base before heading over to Ohio.

Here's a full demographic report on Rhode Island's 1 million people:

  • 82% white
  • 5% African American
  • 11% Hispanic

The state dems have 32 delegates.

In the 2004 primary, the vote went 71% to John Kerry and 19% to John Edwards while Howard Dean got 4%.

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    The Big Mo (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by Kensdad on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:20:52 AM EST
    The Big Mo is turning out to be a media fabrication based on previous election seasons when there was a paucity of good choices and the electorate wasn't divided.  The media tried to peddle the momentum story after IA only to see it flop in NH...  then they tried to peddle it again going into super tuesday only to see the country divide right down the middle...  always gluttons for punishment (and assuming that a broken clock is right twice a day), here comes the media again with the Big Mo of the February calendar.  the fact is that the electorate is increasingly digging their heels in and i seriously doubt that Hillary supporters in OH, TX, RI, PA, etc are going to care that caucus goers in NE, WA, and ME, or states with large african american populations like LA, etc went for Obama...  the super delegates are splitting up pretty evenly (though with a slight edge to Hillary) and it seems ever likely that this race is going to come down to what happens to the delegates from FL and MI...  a "do over" primary is likely the only solution (since the Clinton people will never agree to a caucus and the Obama people will never agree to anything short of exclusion or a total "do over")...  so, while it is uncomfortable (for Clinton supporters) waiting for TX, OH, RI, and PA, I don't see Obama winning those states, and without them he's going to have a very hard time making Hillary go away.

    Unfortunately, (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by tek on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:35:10 AM EST
    I think there's more at play than the results of state elections and caucuses. What's going to keep hurting Hillary is the fact that the media and the Party are working against her.

    Lots of voters don't get to any real news or read blogs but they know the myths circulating: Bill Clinton made racist remarks against Obama and JJ, Hillary diminished MLKs legacy, Hillary's demanding Schuster be fired, all that stuff.

    The Party refuses to defend her and they let Obama say, do whatever and then insist he's above the fray and he's the agent of change. Barbara Walters condemned Hillary this weekend over the Schuster debacle. She said Hillary should just get over it, it's only a slip up. If this is the attitude women have, I don't think there's much hope.


    Disillusioned conservatives? (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by SandyK on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:23:51 AM EST
    HA! They vote for Hillary because she's the most stable and level headed of the bunch.

    Obama is a no one without credentials or experience (yelling "change" or "hope" offers no hard facts and figures -- anyone can dream, but it takes doers to make dreams come true). He's also too coy about making hard decisions, as he plays the polls on par of McInsane.

    This conservative wants stability, experience and facts and figures. Not the house being burned down by anarchist kids, where issues such as needle exchanges are more important than appealing things like NAFTA/CAFTA (which Clinton now admits was a mistake) that robs Americans of their jobs.

    I swear if Hillary mentioned she'll repeal NAFTA/CAFTA she'll get so many swing votes (those critical union ones too) she'd sink Obama overnight.

    Let the Starbucks Obama voters drink their $3 cups of coffee while listening about "change" and "hope". While the mom and pop $1 coffee drinkers who work for a living, do what dreamers can't.


    Good start (none / 0) (#32)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:37:21 AM EST
    to say that she'll get NAFTA and WTO and the media merging stuff all repealed. And maybe get Bill up on the podium to apologize for getting it passed. And say she was wrong for giving Bush war powers.

    But it's not going to happen. Look at her political allies in the DLC.

    I was writing op-eds in 1992 against NAFTA. I knew it was going to murder the working class back then. How come Hillary couldn't figure it out? A mistake? Yeah, invading Iraq was a mistake. Is she going to say, uh, "My bad"?


    All candidates... (none / 0) (#37)
    by SandyK on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:24:42 AM EST
    make mistakes. They're human.

    It takes courage though to admit it. Hillary did say in hindsight it was a mistake, so I'll give her credit where credit is do -- Bush and McInsane sure isn't going to say the same thing.

    Appealing NAFTA/CAFTA would give Hillary the middle class vote she really needs -- especially in the South that has lost almost all of their mills.

    Our economy can't just be service and tech related. People can't live on service salaries, nor all are college bound (or give Tech college trades the black eye).


    Vetted Progressive Credentials? (none / 0) (#28)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:14:13 AM EST
    Please elaborate. Vetted Progressive Credentials seem to be compromised. This is the collective Obama fairy tale. Do tell me also how this alleged "vetted Progressive Credential" will be played during the GE?

    I hope you are correct, but I fear not. (none / 0) (#25)
    by kenosharick on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:07:56 AM EST
    The "bandwagon effect" is well known and for the most part holds true. People want to go with a perceived winne and the media have created a huge phenomenon called Obamamania.

    ARTICLE: Hatchet Man: The Rise of David Axelrod (none / 0) (#1)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:43:28 AM EST
    To Jeralyn or BTD, et al,

    *Hatchet Man: The Rise of David Axelrod - Within the next 12 months, this political consultant just could become a kingmaker.
    By Grant Pick, Chicago Magazine, December 1987.

    I just came across a reference to the above article and I can only find it as a listing in the table of contents in the magazine in which it originally appeared. Can someone please help find the article itself? (As we know, Axelrod is currently Obama's campaign manager - but apparently the two go way back.) I expect this older article dishes a lot of dirt that wouldn't get printed about Axelrod at this point in time - now that he actually is a "kingmaker".

    *It is mentioned in another interesting article: "Obama's Narrator", by Ben Wallace, New York Times Magazine, April 1, 2007 (that one is easy to find).


    Article: Clinton's PowerPointer (none / 0) (#3)
    by andrewwm on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:43:44 AM EST

    If Clinton seems cautious, it may be because Penn has made caution a science, repeatedly testing issues to determine which ones are safe and widely agreed upon (he was part of the team that encouraged Clinton's husband to run on the issue of school uniforms in 1996).

    If Clinton sounds middle-of-the-road, it may be because Penn is a longtime pollster for the centrist Democratic Leadership Council whose clients have included Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.).

    If Clinton resembles a Washington insider with close ties to the party's biggest donors, it may be because her lead strategist is a wealthy chief executive who heads a giant public relations firm, where he personally hones Microsoft's image in Washington.


    Mark Penn truly is one of the worst people we have on the Democrat's side as a strategist. It's one of the reasons that I support Obama over Clinton.


    Article: Obama's On-point Message Man (none / 0) (#4)
    by andrewwm on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:49:13 AM EST

    "I wanted to win or lose based on who I am and not some concoction that somebody told me the public wanted," says Deval Patrick, whom Axelrod served in his successful race to become the first African American governor of Massachusetts last year, Patrick's first campaign. "I talked to a lot of different media consultants and so forth who were brought to me by someone who knew there was such a thing as a media consultant. Of all of them, David seemed to me to be the one most determined to respect my commitment to be myself."


    Over the years he developed a sub-specialty in urban politics, particularly representing African American mayoral candidates, including Street, Anthony Williams in Washington, Dennis Archer in Detroit, Michael White of Cleveland and Lee Brown of Houston.

    Through all the national political work, Axelrod says he was never tempted to leave Chicago, where he and his wife, Susan, raised their three children, now adults. He likes to quote Wilhelm saying upon leaving Washington, "I'm going back to Chicago where at least they stab you in the front."



    Being a life-long union man (none / 0) (#15)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:47:09 AM EST
    Penn's presence on a Democratic staff is an insult.

    Here we go again... (none / 0) (#31)
    by SandyK on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:32:17 AM EST
    the far Left is going to destroy the Democrat party, a-g-a-i-n.

    I swear the GOP doesn't have to do anything, they just have to sit and wait for the kids to burn down their own house. They did it with Carter; did it with Bill Clinton; and now trying to do it with Hillary.

    Bunch of silly anarchists who's main idea of importance is needle exchanges and prison sentences; when there's an economic slump/not enough jobs/education that's sub-par/we're too damn dependent on foreign energy. They'll bleed middle class America and unions dry, just so they can say their "progressive".

    I'll take a populist anyday over a progressive!!


    Great. (none / 0) (#11)
    by tek on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:35:48 AM EST
    The Democratic Karl Rove.

    As it gets closer to the campaign date (none / 0) (#2)
    by maritza on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:11:54 AM EST
    I predict that the numbers will get closer.  As more people get to know Barack, the more they like him.

    Or not... (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by kenoshaMarge on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:12:23 AM EST
    The more some of us get to know him the less we like him. But that doesn't matter because the media is with him 24/7. Most voters will never know the truth, aren't much interested in the truth and will follow whichever parade is making the most noise. Fortunately for Obama and his supporters, the media and most of Left Blogostan is beating the Obama drum.

    I thought (none / 0) (#16)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:49:02 AM EST
    I thought little states didn't count.

    There are bigger states today. What do the polls say about them?


    Bob (none / 0) (#26)
    by hvs on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:08:18 AM EST
    you need to check RI against the Official HRC States That Count Matrix. It's easy, and only takes five simple steps:

    1. Is it a caucus state? If yes, it doesn't count; if no, proceed to step #2.
    2. Does it have a lot of black folks in it? If yes, it doesn't count; if no, proceed to step #3.
    3. Does it have a lot of college educated democrats in it? If yes, it doesn't count; if no, proceed to step #4.
    4. Did the Clinton campaign "expect" Obama to win it ? If yes, it doesn't count; if no proceed to to step #5.
    5. Does the Clinton campaign say it counts? If yes, it counts.

    Why are there so many uncommitted? (none / 0) (#5)
    by cannondaddy on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:41:14 AM EST
    Anybody got a theory?

    Depends on how hard they pushed the leaners (none / 0) (#6)
    by andrewwm on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:50:46 AM EST
    Some pollsters will mark down anyone that says "they're both great" or "they both suck" or "i don't know that much about them" as undecided. Some go further and ask, "ok, but if you absolutely had to choose, which would you pick?". I bet Brown was much more of the former. It's probably a good view of how strong the base of each is, but doesn't really tell us how undecideds might break.

    36% undecided/uncommitted... (none / 0) (#7)
    by mike in dc on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:10:01 AM EST
    ...means it's up for grabs.

    Looks (none / 0) (#9)
    by tek on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:27:49 AM EST
    like Durbin's strategy is right. Obama's going to take the whole South away from Hillary because most of the Democrats in those states are black. The whites are all Republicans. Four more years of a president I can't stand to look at. Great.

    Excuse me? (none / 0) (#14)
    by andrewwm on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:47:02 AM EST
    How is this Durbin's strategy? Did you read the WP article above about how carefully BO has had to tread to appeal to black people? This is ridiculous - accusing a black candidate of trying to "steal" an election by winning the black vote.

    Unfortunately the (none / 0) (#21)
    by PlayInPeoria on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:17:04 AM EST
    Media is really bad a promoting this idea.

    this morning on the news they were roporting the AA in the states and that Sen Obama was expected to win. As long as Sen Obama continues to ignore the media's hype on the subject, he will endure the image.


    So what should he say? (none / 0) (#23)
    by andrewwm on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:28:22 AM EST
    Sorry black people, actually I don't really want your vote because it makes it look I can only win with black people?  (and, frankly, I think there's nothing wrong with winning with black people - that's what the Democrats have been doing for the last 40 years).

    Or are you suggesting that he should tell the media to quit reporting about racial differences in this country?


    Right... (none / 0) (#24)
    by doordiedem0crat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:35:51 AM EST
    as if Jews didn't vote for Lieberman or Catholics didn't vote for Kennedy.

    It is quite natural for any group to vote for their own guy.

    Maybe tek feels its a problem when it comes to blacks.


    Andrew (none / 0) (#29)
    by PlayInPeoria on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:23:30 AM EST
    Sen Obmama himself has wanted the vote but not the racism. This has contributed to defining this primary by race. I truely believe that Sen Obama is intellegent and tactful and that he could address it.... but his campaign has tried to convence the AA community that he "Balck Enough".

    Here is the new after SC...

    On Saturday, Sen. Barack Obama rode a wave of support from African-American voters to an overwhelming victory in South Carolina's Democratic primary.  

    this is the issuu in wanting it both ways.... it is the same card played when women mention sexist issues. And when women mention it they get "beat up".


    I don't get what you're arguing (none / 0) (#33)
    by andrewwm on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:41:35 AM EST
    Obama has said, my policies are better for you. Don't vote for me because of race but because I'm the better candidate. He works for their vote, tries to talk about issues that matter to them.  In fact, as you might have seen in the article above, he has gone out of his way to distance himself from the black community precisely because he doesn't want to be painted as the black candidate. And he decries racism.  What else do you want from him?

    It gets my dander up here when people start discounting the black vote as unimportant or a strike against him. The blacks and people of color have carried many a Democrat to elected office. Why is their support for a candidate a negative?


    He had a hard time (none / 0) (#35)
    by PlayInPeoria on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:58:01 AM EST
    convincing the AA community that he was "Black Enough". Used Michelle Obama to get the message across.... It went too far the other way. Now he has to bring back it back to center... but he is not doing that.

    This is my point... to ONLY vote for a candidate due to color or sex is a problem. But now that is what has come to the fore front. And the media is promoting this.

    I may have to vote for Sen Obama should he win the nomination... I don't want the media going in this direction and I hope he has a plan for this.


    Just a note... (none / 0) (#38)
    by SandyK on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:32:28 AM EST
    The short hand used for African-American vote, also is the short hand for the Asian American vote. This can cause confusion beyond the immediate communities.

    Are you saying (none / 0) (#17)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:51:04 AM EST
    that the white men who voted for Clinton are all racists? That they are beyond redemption? Can't we hope that at least some of them will vote for the Democratic candidate in November?

    Ohio Demographics (none / 0) (#20)
    by PlayInPeoria on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:12:53 AM EST

    Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Dayton have large African American communities. Cleveland and Toledo have sizable Hispanic populations, while the Cleveland and Columbus areas have the largest Asian populations. Greater Cleveland is home to a notably large Jewish community. Other Ohio cities, such as Cincinnati, also have sizable Jewish populations.

    6.6% of Ohio's population were reported as under 5, 25.4% under 18, and 13.3% were 65 or older. Females made up approximately 51.4% of the population.

    Rhode Island

    Rhode Island has a higher percentage of Americans of Portuguese ancestry (who dominate Bristol County), including Portuguese Americans and Cape Verdean Americans than any other state in the nation. French Canadians form a large part of northern Providence County whereas Irish Americans have a strong presence in Newport and Kent counties. Yankees of English ancestry still have a presence in the state as well, especially in Washington county, and are often referred to as "Swamp Yankees."

    6.1% of Rhode Island's population were reported as under 5, 23.6% under 18, and 14.5% were 65 or older. Females made up approximately 52% of the population.

    Ohio was carried by Bill Clinton and then George W Bush (but just barely).

    It will be interesting. If there is a large "core" Dems in the state then I beleive Sen Clinton will win somthing like CA & Mass.

    I'm just not sure how strong the Dems party is in Ohio.

    Heard This Morning OBAMA is open To CHARTER (none / 0) (#27)
    by TearDownThisWall on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:14:13 AM EST
    schools as a "solution" or "alternative"....anyone else hear this?

    What's Clinton's opinion? (none / 0) (#34)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:42:18 AM EST
    Is she against them? Just curious. It helps to hear both candidates' positions in order to compare.

    Breaking (none / 0) (#36)
    by SFHawkguy on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:23:34 AM EST
    Hillary fails to show up to do her job and vote on FISA.  Hillary has failed the nation and our constitution.  Shame on her.

    Our Senate has now swept the crimes of the President and his co-conspirators under the rug.  With more dems like Hillary why vote Republican?

    Obama up by 11 in WI... (none / 0) (#39)
    by mike in dc on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:45:47 AM EST
    ...according to a PPP poll.  If the turnout is lower, then he only wins by 4.  

    Really want to see those first polls for TX and OH now.