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Qunnipiac: Obama Leads in Ohio, PA

Quinnipiac released its final big swing state poll this morning. Obama is ahead in Ohio and PA. Florida is too close to call.

"Sen. Obama appears headed for the best showing of any Democratic candidate among white voters in a generation, going back at least to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and perhaps even to Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama leads by 10 in PA and 7 in Ohio. He's up 2 in FL, within the margin of error. As for McCain's last stand in PA:

"In the end, Sen. John McCain's troops in Central Pennsylvania, led by veterans, disaffected Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters and God and gun clingers, will be swept over by a wave of young black and urban new voters, giving Sen. Barack Obama the Keystone State," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

[More...]

"Gov. Ed Rendell will bring out all the king's horses and all the king's men and women to insure a huge turnout that will provide not only an Obama victory, but maybe a job for the term- limited Governor in Washington next year."

The breakdown:

In all three states, those polled say the economy and McCain's connection to Bush is more harmful than his pick of Gov. Sarah Palin.

Here's a partial breakdown.

Florida:

  • Obama leads 51 - 38 percent among Florida voters who already have cast their ballot.
  • Among all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 - 45 percent and women back Obama 49 - 43 percent. White voters go Republican 52 - 40 percent, as do evangelical Christians 71 - 23 percent, and Catholics 55 - 38 percent. Jews back Obama 69 - 26 percent.
  • Independent voters back Obama 49 - 39 percent.
  • By a 52 - 41 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 56 - 38 percent for McCain.
  • Gov. Palin gets a 47 - 42 percent favorability.

Ohio

  • Among early voters in Ohio, Obama leads 64 - 26 percent.
  • Among all likely voters, women back the Democrat 57 - 34 percent, as men back McCain 51 - 43 percent. McCain leads among white voters 48 - 45 percent and among evangelical Christians 59 - 34 percent. Obama leads among black voters 96 - 1 percent.
  • Independent voters go 48 - 44 percent for the Democrat.
  • Obama gets a 55 - 38 percent favorability in Ohio, with 51 - 42 percent for McCain.
  • Palin's favorability is a negative 41 - 45 percent, while Biden gets 48 - 33 percent.

Pennsylvania:

  • Obama leads 55 - 39 percent with women, and 49 - 45 percent with men. White voters split 47 - 47 percent, while black voters back Obama 95 - 1 percent. McCain leads 67 - 27 percent among evangelical Christians while Obama leads 51 - 46 percent among Catholics.
  • Independent voters back the Democrat 49 - 42 percent. Obama gets a 58 - 35 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 53 - 42 percent. Palin's favorability is a split 43 - 44 percent, while Biden gets 52 - 32 percent.
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  • Display: Sort:
    Gee, I wonder who Mr C Richards is supporting? (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by nycstray on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 12:02:08 PM EST
    God and gun clingers?

    I don't get it. (none / 0) (#1)
    by Blowback on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:21:03 AM EST
    What does Gov. Ed Rendell's GOTV have to do with "maybe a job for the term- limited Governor in Washington next year." ??

    "Gov. Ed Rendell will bring out all the king's horses and all the king's men and women to insure a huge turnout that will provide not only an Obama victory, but maybe a job for the term- limited Governor in Washington next year."

    I think it means (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by eric on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:26:04 AM EST
    that Rendell is working really hard so Obama will be thankful and give him a job in the administration.

    Parent
    EGR would work hard for Obama even (none / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:34:44 AM EST
    if the only reward were winning in PA. He has a record to protect after, all: he even got John Kerry across the finish line!

    Parent
    Landslide (none / 0) (#2)
    by kmonster on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:24:21 AM EST
    This is great.  I keep telling everyone I work with this is going to be a landslide, but they're all worried.

    This is a change election, much like 1932 or 1860.

    And yet PPP sez (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:25:55 AM EST
    FL and OH are in exactly the same position.

    Let's see. . .

    Just a nagging thought here... (none / 0) (#7)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 12:21:29 PM EST
    When both the Democratic leadership and the GOP came out with nominees who were not their strongest candidates, I couldn't help but wonder: do either of these parties really want to win this particular election?

    I mean, the next President will be left holding a huge bag of flaming s*it. It's inevitable that he (no more he or she) will be a fall guy to one degree or another. It feels as if we're about to enter into a short-term, rebound relationship.

    Happy holidays (none / 0) (#8)
    by eventsincity on Wed Apr 16, 2014 at 12:26:55 PM EST