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Qunnipiac: Obama Leads in Ohio, PA

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:07:57 AM EST
Tags: John McCain, Barack Obama, 2008 (all tags)
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Quinnipiac released its final big swing state poll this morning. Obama is ahead in Ohio and PA. Florida is too close to call.

"Sen. Obama appears headed for the best showing of any Democratic candidate among white voters in a generation, going back at least to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and perhaps even to Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama leads by 10 in PA and 7 in Ohio. He's up 2 in FL, within the margin of error. As for McCain's last stand in PA:

"In the end, Sen. John McCain's troops in Central Pennsylvania, led by veterans, disaffected Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters and God and gun clingers, will be swept over by a wave of young black and urban new voters, giving Sen. Barack Obama the Keystone State," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

[More...]

"Gov. Ed Rendell will bring out all the king's horses and all the king's men and women to insure a huge turnout that will provide not only an Obama victory, but maybe a job for the term- limited Governor in Washington next year."

The breakdown:

In all three states, those polled say the economy and McCain's connection to Bush is more harmful than his pick of Gov. Sarah Palin.

Here's a partial breakdown.

Florida:

  • Obama leads 51 - 38 percent among Florida voters who already have cast their ballot.
  • Among all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 - 45 percent and women back Obama 49 - 43 percent. White voters go Republican 52 - 40 percent, as do evangelical Christians 71 - 23 percent, and Catholics 55 - 38 percent. Jews back Obama 69 - 26 percent.
  • Independent voters back Obama 49 - 39 percent.
  • By a 52 - 41 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 56 - 38 percent for McCain.
  • Gov. Palin gets a 47 - 42 percent favorability.

Ohio

  • Among early voters in Ohio, Obama leads 64 - 26 percent.
  • Among all likely voters, women back the Democrat 57 - 34 percent, as men back McCain 51 - 43 percent. McCain leads among white voters 48 - 45 percent and among evangelical Chris