The Polls McCain Likes And The Ones He Does Not Like

Hotline has the race narrowing to a 1 point Obama lead. In two days, according to Hotline, Obama's 6 point lead has dwindled to a statistical tie. Battleground has Obama's 7 point lead yesterday dwindling to 4. The charlatan Zogby has Obama's 3 point lead yesterday cut to 2. The NYTimes/CBS poll has Obama up 3. And the Democracy Corps poll has Obama up 3. Take these 5 polls, and you have a 2.6 point Obama lead.

Here are the polls McCain does not like -- DKos/R2000 has Obama up 10. Ras has Obama up 6 (down 2 from the past 2 days). Gallup has Obama up 9. CNN has Obama up 8. NBC has Obama up 6. Obama leads by 7.8 points in these 5 polls. A 5 point Obama lead when you put all 10 polls together.

Of course this is all pre-debate. I think the election is over.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< Consensus On The Need For HOLC | April 2008: McCain On Helping Homeowners >
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    Dear BTD, . . . (5.00 / 0) (#19)
    by Doc Rock on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 11:37:12 AM EST
    . . . the election will only be over after the votes have been counted. Let's not underestimate the ability of the American electorate to be misled in voting against their personal interests over some single hot button issue.  McCain and cabal will be pushing every button they can think of, while fighting mightily to suppress potential Democrat votes.  Talk of victory now, can only lead to an inalert team.

    However. . . (none / 0) (#1)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:17:15 AM EST
    note that a majority of the polls (the ones you cited as "good for McCain" but also R2K and Ras) have negative O-mentum.  That's the effect of the attack-fest going on while those polls where being conducted.

    McCain went up mostly (none / 0) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:19:17 AM EST
    in those polls. Not the other way around.

    It looks like some of ... (none / 0) (#3)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:22:27 AM EST
    Obama's gains in the last week or two have been a bounce.

    I still think the conditions favor Obama, but this electorate is too volatile for my liking.


    So? (none / 0) (#5)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:29:33 AM EST
    People "coming home" to McCain after being reminded of the deep-seated satanic evil represented by Obama.

    It's conventional wisdom -- and probably true -- that negative campaigning hurts both parties, it's just a matter of hurting the target more.  But so far this is just a point or two, not a broad indicator of the long term effects of these attacks.  The only thing that was  different during those tracking polls is the new found aggressive smear campaign by McCain / Palin.


    "Negative O-mentum" (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:32:34 AM EST
    Oh, I see. . . (none / 0) (#14)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 10:00:46 AM EST
    by O-mentum I refer to the net lead in the polls, not the actual vote percentage or favorability rating of either candidate.

    I think the economic crisis pushed the soft (none / 0) (#10)
    by steviez314 on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:48:39 AM EST
    leaners to Obama.

    Now we are left with the true undecided, maybe 8%.  And frankly, if you're still undecided by now, you're probably looking for a way to not vote for the black/new guy.

    Look at that CNN focus group last night.  They thought Obama won the debate, was better on the issues.  But when they were asked how they would vote today if they had to, it went 14-11 for McCain.

    I think the undecided pool left is just leaning that way.  Which is OK---if McCain can only get the undecided by 60-40, Obama still is on track for a 5 point win.  Not the 10 we were hoping for (maybe ground game helps more), but enough to win by more than a few states.


    A lot of pollsters ... (none / 0) (#12)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:54:49 AM EST
    agree with this:

    And frankly, if you're still undecided by now, you're probably looking for a way to not vote for the black/new guy.

    They argue that 70% of undecided voters will break for McCain.  They won't break evenly or with momentum, as they often do.

    This why I still feel that Obama needs to be in the 6-8% plus range on the weekend going into the election for me to feel fully comfortable.


    Looking towards the third debate (none / 0) (#4)
    by CoralGables on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:23:37 AM EST
    It feels a bit like the last minute of a football game with one team down by four touchdowns. Should we stay and watch the losing team throw one more hail mary hoping to make it look like less of a landslide, or beat the traffic and go out to dinner?

    Every game changer at this point appears to be a state by state change in Obama's favor.

    If the race isn't over after that debate (none / 0) (#7)
    by esmense on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:38:55 AM EST
    there's hanky panky going on. No one watching that performance could want McCain anywhere near the public purse, their Social Security or their mortgage. I have never understood why people obsess over Palin when she does nothing more than her job -- which is to sell the absurd, proven incompent, "ideas" of her party and their Presidential pick. The fact that the media had a crush on him for so long proves one thing -- their approval is never based in important things like competence.

    It ain't over (none / 0) (#8)
    by scribe on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:39:06 AM EST
    until WE say it's over.

    Dude don't jinx us. Anything could happen. The (none / 0) (#9)
    by WillBFair on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:47:51 AM EST
    market could improve any second. The media could start fawning over McCain more than they already do. And the public would follow like sheep.
    I just hold my breath and pray.
    It will be so sweet to have the Clinton policy agenda back in the driver's seat. But it makes me sad to think how much catastrophy has to happen for us to get there.

    Good on you! (1.00 / 0) (#15)
    by koshembos on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 10:01:56 AM EST
    Your absolutely right plus Obama seems the the worst candidate the Democrats could come up with. Actually, that's the Democratic way - get a Carter, Dukakis, Kerry and Obama. If you get a star like Clinton by mistake, make sure to hate his guts.

    I'm fawning over his HOLC propoal (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:50:52 AM EST
    Wait a minute please (none / 0) (#13)
    by koshembos on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 09:56:14 AM EST
    I hope BTD is right, but his argument through a selective polls is questionable. Obama is a terrible debater; he cannot come up one smart line in 90 minutes. That is quite frightening. McCain is Mel Brooks' 1 Million years old man; he is irater, agitated and angry. He call everyone friend but it feels hostile.

    Both are downright awful, but McCain is a million times more awful.

    Well, I was right yesterday (none / 0) (#16)
    by andgarden on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 10:02:38 AM EST
    That there was probably a downtick.

    Still, I think McCain's fate is sealed.

    I'm still a bit antsy ... (none / 0) (#17)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 10:19:24 AM EST
    I want to see how this HOLC business plays out.

    And Obama's uptick didn't go as high as I thought it would, meaning he doesn't have the cushion I hoped to protect him against the inevitable tightening we'll see over the next few weeks.


    It all boils down to a close (none / 0) (#18)
    by kenosharick on Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 10:49:28 AM EST
    election, as were the last two. Obama will probably win, but not in the landslide many have been predicting.