The Polls - 10/31

Any Halloween scares to come in the polling today? Not likely.

DKos/R2000 has Obama up 6, 51-45. Ras has Obama up 4, 51-47 and a good explanation of what has happened in the last week or so:

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. . . . [W]hile McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground. This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

Other polls show similar spreads. Hotline has Obama by 6, 48-42. Gallup Expanded has Obama by 7, 51-44. The race has been static for a week. The spread each pollster shows depends on turnout models but no poll shows McCain closer than 3. And some polls show as much as a 15 point spread. I stick to my months long prediction of a 6 point Obama win.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    AP this a.m. is amusing. (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by oculus on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:39:23 AM EST
    Yes, McCain is still losing.  But, let's talk about the 1 in 7 "persuadable"s:


    new one (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by connecticut yankee on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:04:38 PM EST
    Gallup is off the chart today.

    RV: Obama by 11
    LV I: Obama by 9
    LV II: Obama by 8

    Battleground/GWU... (none / 0) (#1)
    by mike in dc on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 08:49:12 AM EST
    ...now has it 49-45, which is a slight drop for McCain.  The R2K Thursday post-ad sample was +8, so I expect a point or two of movement to show up in some polls, or at least for McCain's upward movement to stall.

    Tightening isn't true (none / 0) (#2)
    by kmonster on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 08:58:06 AM EST
    I like the quote about the tightening not meaning everything.  The media is trying to pretend this thing is closer than it is.

    I think Obama's turnout will be huge and he'll get even more than the polls are predicting.

    I hope the turnout will be huge... (none / 0) (#3)
    by Thanin on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 08:59:15 AM EST
    the youth vote, as usual, is making me nervous.

    Louisiana (none / 0) (#5)
    by atlmom on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:14:00 AM EST
    A college student here in Georgia has not received her absentee ballot from Lousiana and is driving there to vote on Tuesday.  I am hopeful others will also be as diligent.  By the way, have you seen poll numbers in LA that show even Louisiana may be close?

    Interesting data on youth vote (none / 0) (#6)
    by Cream City on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:22:14 AM EST
    nationally is in the graphic with a story on it in my local paper this morning.  Look at the comparative data for 2000 and 2004, the latter when there was a great GOTV effort -- and it paid off somewhat.  But look at the map below, too, to see where it really happened; one of the high-turnout states was mine.  And I'm not sure that it can go much higher in those states.  (See also another story in my morning paper on us no longer being a swing state, thank heavens.  My phone is not ringing with robocalls every three seconds this time. . . .)  

    So the youth vote may matter most in (a) the 10 or so states that still matter, and (b) where there is substantive room for improvement in their turnout.  That brings it down to a handful of states, I think, where it may matter much.


    Thank you Cream... (none / 0) (#12)
    by Thanin on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:02:57 AM EST
    This does give me some comfort.  And it coincides with other things Ive heard, in that this newest generation is more engaged and politically savvy than my apathetic slacker brethren ever where, so hopefully theyll do what they did during the primaries and flood the polls on election day.

    Polling aggregators (none / 0) (#4)
    by jpete on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:00:44 AM EST
    I'm just learning about these; I'm told by a reliable person that the best is:

    I understand that the person who does it also does professional football (or maybe baseball)pools; the data from various sources is weighted, combined, etc.

    538 (5.00 / 4) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:22:54 AM EST
    is, as we are, a biased analysis site.

    Sometimes their analysis is good. Many times bad.

    It is not what it is billed to be - some epxert site. But there is no such thing as an expert election analyst.

    Nobody know nuthin really.


    Thanks, good to know. nt (none / 0) (#19)
    by jpete on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:27:33 AM EST
    but wait! (none / 0) (#21)
    by jpete on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:35:18 AM EST
    I wasn't even considering his opinions, just the number crunching, which the most mathematically inclined people I know say is very good.

    Opinions are only just that.  And numbers can be used to lie, but I haven't seen anyone say he's doing that.

    If he is, that's important but it may be hard to show.  

    Racism is, on the other hand, makes visiting the site problematic for me.


    What do you think of this one, BTD... (none / 0) (#22)
    by barryluda on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:38:38 AM EST
    I like, if nothing else, the distorted size of states to show the share of EV, of The Princeton Election Consortium.

    Some around here don't like him but (none / 0) (#8)
    by Faust on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:34:05 AM EST
    I will stick by this assessment of Mr. Silver:

    Great with the numbers, take his non-numbers analysis with a handfull of salt. Or maybe a bucket.

    Course I generally agree with BTDs assesment that nobody knows nothing. That certainly includes me as well :)


    I do not like to things about Poblano (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:44:29 AM EST
    His racism and his clam to some higher truth and expertise.

    The first is despicable. The second just annoying.


    Hes racist? I hadnt heard that. (none / 0) (#11)
    by Thanin on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:55:09 AM EST
    He was indeed (none / 0) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:05:34 AM EST
    I'll revisit the issue after the election - when I recap the atrocities of the Left in this cycle.

    I'll give you a hint - he accused Latino and other people with "funny sopunding names" Clinton donors of being fraudulent.

    Like the McCain campaign s doing now about udisclosed Obama donors. Funny Poblao has been quiet about that.


    Well thats saddening... (none / 0) (#15)
    by Thanin on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:16:16 AM EST
    but I guess that pretty much describes the whole primary season.

    Yes he is very prone to (none / 0) (#17)
    by Faust on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:35:30 AM EST
    jumping off the rails when he stops talking about data. He was especially bad during the primary season. I think he was even worse then 1. becaues he had CDS and 2. I think he enjoyed his annonymity as Poblano.

    As to his claims of higher truth, I don't know enough about statistics, math and polling to make any claims about his expertise or lack thereof. What I will say is that he is very good at producing clear and concise descriptions of data, and organizing and presenting data in a way that is pleasing to look at.

    If one wanted to take the angle that he is a charlatan getting mileage out of other people's data and then magically turning it into "insight" then I think one would be making a justifiable argument.

    On the other hand I would be hard pressed to come up with an example of an aggregating site that does it a whole lot better.

    In any case I look forward your (and others) post mortem on pollsters and analysts after this election, it will be interesting to see what questions get answered this Tuesday.


    boo! (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:37:07 AM EST
    PPP put out half a dozen polls in the middle of the night. With the exception of WV, nothing but good news.

    They've got Al Franken 5 pts up, Colorado in the bag for Obama and Udall, And Oregon going for Merkley.

    big tent, (none / 0) (#14)
    by sancho on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:05:36 AM EST
    i look forward to you daily poll updates. i hope you are right. i believe you are right when i read you. i hope you get to post a  big i told you so the day after the election. your daily poll posts are keeping me sane as i fight off election fraud nightmates. thanks for doing these.


    More good news (none / 0) (#16)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:33:24 AM EST
    Per SUSA polling in NH:

    Obama 53
    McCain 42

    Shaheen 53
    Sununu 40

    Drinking your own kool-aid (none / 0) (#20)
    by TheRealFrank on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:32:15 AM EST
    McCain's campaign manager claims that Iowa is dead-even

    Ok, I mean, you could argue about polling LV models. E.g. I don't believe that it's 10 points nationally right now. It's more like 5 points.

    But "dead even" in a state that has consistently seen 10+ point leads for Obama? What are they smoking?

    There desperate gambit seems to be to assume that states that went for Bush in 2004 will "come home", and that PA will put them over the top. Good luck with that.

    Apparently... (none / 0) (#26)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:15:14 PM EST
    ...they're smoking that good old I-oh-way ditch weed.  

    "The One" is holding a rally in Des Moines today--25,000 anti-American Iowans strong showed up.  

    Not quite the 100K that showed up in Denver, but not too shabby for Des Moines.

    McCain doesn't have a chance.  


    For once, I agree with BTD (none / 0) (#23)
    by Nevart on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:43:39 AM EST
    God knows I haven't agreed with BTD much over the past several months, esp. when it concerned HRC, but I agree with the 6-point spread.  Obama 54, McCain 47, Other 1.

    6 Points would be great! (none / 0) (#24)
    by robrecht on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:51:08 AM EST
    I've always thought (and still do think) it will be closer than that, maybe 2 points or 4 at most, but I'm usually wrong.