Obamas Making More Stops in Colorado Before Tuesday

Earlier today I wrote about the latest Colorado poll showing Obama still with a big lead over John McCain. A reader asked me if I'm ready to call Colorado for Obama yet.

I thought I was, but now I'm having second thoughts. He was just in Denver and Fort Collins last week, so why are he and Michelle coming back to Colorado tomorrow to do a rally in Pueblo? Pueblo is a Democratic county. Maybe it's just that early voting turnout in Pueblo has not been as high as other places. As of today:[More...]

Pueblo: mail-in: 22,972
early voting: 12,380
active voters: 108,032

And, why is Michelle, who was just in Colorado Springs the other day, coming back to do a rally on Monday night? If Colorado were safe, wouldn't they be spending their final days in a state that wasn't? Perhaps Obama's internal polling is showing something different than the other Colorado polls showing Obama with a significant lead.

Or, is it concern that voter purging may be a problem? Remember the settlement Wednesday in the lawsuit challenging the removal of more than 20,000 voters from registration lists?

Seems our Secretary of State, Mike Coffman, has already violated at least the spirit of it by purging another 146 names since then. The federal judge presiding over the case got really mad today[More...]:

U.S. District Judge John Kane said that was a violation of federal law. Kane warned that if Coffman doesn't stop the practice, "he'll be listening to me personally."

He ordered the 146 voters to be put back on the rolls.

Coffman gave this explanation:

In a statement, Coffman said he believed the judge's original order did not require him to stop the purges but rather said the settlement left the "processes leading up to Election Day" unchanged.

....Coffman said that, of the 146 registrations ordered to be reinstated, 66 were canceled because of duplications, 62 were canceled because the voter moved out of state and 12 were canceled because the voter died. The remaining six registrations were canceled either because the potential voter was a convicted felon, was not a U.S. citizen or withdrew the application, he said.

Here is the Judge's order today (obtained from PACER):

Defendant immediately shall cease and stop removing or redacting names within the 90-day period. No additional names are to be removed by the Secretary or the Clerk and Recorders throughout the state pending the general election. Defendant may add names to the eligibility list and proceed with anything else that is in the normal course of operations.

Maybe its these kind of shenanigans that has Obama concerned enough about Colorado for him and Michelle to make four stops here this week. Joe Biden was here too last week. Or, it could be that early voting among young voters hasn't met expectations, a trend being seen nationally. Despite the huge numbers being seen,

The only dampening factors are the youth vote, which hasn't shown much in early voting, and as the race looks less close, some people may stay home, experts said.

Early voting ended tonight in Colorado. It's expected more than half of our 3 million voters will have cast their ballots before Tuesday. The numbers so far:

As of early Friday morning, the Colorado Secretary of State's Office reported that nearly 1.3 million registered voters had cast ballots already, either in person or by mail-in. That's 40 percent turnout....Of those who voted early in some fashion, 488,575 were Democrats, 465,869 were Republicans and 336,551 were unaffiliated.

Neither McCain nor Palin are expected back before Tuesday. But, Mitt Romney is coming to campaign for McCain Monday. Romney was overwhelming the choice of Colorado Republicans in the caucuses.

So, is Colorado still in doubt?

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    This Whole Youth Vote Thing (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by zvs888 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:10:30 PM EST
    Isn't that supposed to happen on Election day?

    From what we've seen in the past, youth voters have never materialized in early voting in profound numbers...

    If they do turn out it will be on election (none / 0) (#8)
    by hairspray on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:25:46 PM EST
    day.  Mail in ballots are secured by writing in well in advance and sent to a stable address.  So students who move a lot in a term aren't likely to order them up.  I wonder how the early voting totals for Obama are doing in other states?

    Maybe it's just an acknowledgement (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by Democratic Cat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:56:58 PM EST
    Of the importance -- now and even more in the future -- of the West. Winning the election seems assured, but winning CO would be a nice jewel in the Party's crown.

    Yeah (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by zvs888 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:32:52 PM EST
    If McCain weren't the Republican's nominee, Arizona might be in play.

    If you think about it, the Democrats really need to try to work Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado into a type of block to join California/Oregon/Washington.

    A combo of the NE/MW/SW would be unstoppable and largely relegate the Republicans to being a regional interior west/midwest/south party.


    Plus (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by zvs888 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:33:40 PM EST
    All the growth is out in the southwest. Those 4 states out west will continue to gain EVs while PA/OH/MI will continue to bleed them...

    Not all growth is out there (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:34:45 AM EST
    Lots of growth in SC, NC, and Viginia too.

    None of those states (none / 0) (#28)
    by BrianJ on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 08:00:41 AM EST
    Are likely to gain an electoral vote/ Congressional seat in 2010 (although South Carolina has a chance), but Utah and Nevada are, while Arizona will probably get two.

    Interestingly, Oregon and Washington are both on the bubble to gain seats as well.



    Leave nothing to chance (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by white n az on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:24:35 PM EST
    I think that is the wisest strategy at this point - not that Republican's would {{cough}} Florida {{cough}} try to do anything to steal the election...

    Not so hard to understand the visit to Pueblo (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by rdandrea on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:55:58 PM EST
    To be sure of a victory in Colorado, Obama needs to perform at least as well as the average Democrat in blue areas like Pueblo.  Overperforming would be a plus.  And he definitely needs to overperform, even just a little bit, in the red counties.

    He needs to run through the tape.  And that's precisely what he's doing.

    Colorado is the state that puts Obama over 270 (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by SamJohnson on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 04:06:17 AM EST
    At least they would like it to be the focus to turn and keep it blue for a long time. They are going for a huge win with coattails. Udall and Robert Redford are also campaigning which just brings more media, mojo, etc. And with Romney popping his head up the Obama campaign does not leave any such challenge (except for the ridiculous one in PA) unanswered. Also, don't ever believe that the Republicans are not going to have a spectacularly planned GOTV. They are trying to play us with what little they have to use.

    The closeness of the race (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by jar137 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 09:40:00 AM EST
    is a reflection of Obama's inability to close the deal with working class voters.  Given the state of the economy and the many ways in which the republicans have broken the govt, this should be a cakewalk.  Sadly, I think the PV is going to be extremely close.  Hopefully, the ECV won't be.  

    Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by robrecht on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 10:49:03 AM EST
    I would have whole-heartedly agreed with this during the primaries, when Hillary took up the mantle of the Happy Warrior and did so well with this demographic.  But Obama is campaigning much more effectively now.  The extent to which he loses this demographic should more appropriately be attributed to the McCain-Palin demagoguery.  No doubt, Obama left himself wide open to this line of attack by not choosing Hillary as VP, but still I will only blame the detestable Republican politics of fear and hate.  I'd rather place blame squarely on the guilty party.  Aside from not choosing Hillary, I don't fault Obama for this.

    I disagree with you (none / 0) (#34)
    by jar137 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:45:36 AM EST
    on the demagoguery winning over those voters.  I don't think there is a movement to McCain, but a lack of movement to Obama with this group.  At least that's the case with the folks I know.  I know lots of loyal Democrats who are still unresolved as to whether to vote for Obama.  They are not thinking of voting for McCain.  My own working class Catholic mother in Pa is thinking of voting for Nader because she saw an interview with him (not sure where) and he talked about specifics.  She is deadly worried about another republican administration, but does not think Obama will fix the country's problems.  Take this for what it's worth.  I find anecdotal evidence interesting, but appreciate that it is not statistically significant.

    Western Pennsylvania Working Class Demographic? (none / 0) (#35)
    by robrecht on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 12:21:36 PM EST
    I don't know anyone in Western Pennsylvania so I have zero anecdotal evidence and appreciate your input, especially WRT this particular demographic.  But from the many statewide polls, Obama has been very consistently at 50 or slightly above since the end of September.  McCain has gained a little bit in the same time period and closed the gap some so I've assumed it has been from this demographic but don't have any specific evidence for such.  Everyone I know in the Philly area of Pennsylvania is for Obama, but that may say more about me and my choice of friends. ;)

    RCP Link

    Pollster Link


    I am talking about Philly as well (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by jar137 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:30:47 PM EST
    and was referrring to the people I grew up with.  Go into south, southwest, and northeast Philly and you will find some of these folks.  Again, I was speaking anecdotally.  I think Obama will likely win Pa, but I think it will be more because of fear of another republican admin than in support of Obama.  I also think when my mother enters the polling booth, she will vote for Obama because her fear of McCain and Palin is so great.

    I too have greater fear of McCain-Palin (none / 0) (#37)
    by robrecht on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 03:07:09 PM EST
    and another Republican administration than I have great confidence in Obama.  I was a stronger Hillary supporter.  But I think that's usually the case, for me anyway, that I tend to vote against the opposition, the greater of two evils, if you will.  I hope Obama surprises me and he rises to the occasion is a truly great president.  His is a candidacy of hope, right?

    "A reader", huh? (none / 0) (#2)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:34:52 PM EST
    I guess that is better than "some idiot".  :)

    Seems like a GOTV effort to me.  I've been reading some amazing reports on the ground game here, so this could just be part of the plan.  The campaign definately has a "play until the final whistle blows" attitude.  The GOP is getting crushed in the GOTV game here.  

    Maybe, just maybe--for reasons unknown--they think they can get a win in CD-5?  

    Dems are ahead in early voting--that doesn't happen very often of late.  That bodes well for their chances.  Plus, if Obama is getting 60% of the indies, I don't think there is anyway McCain can win.  

    I just wish the Dems had a stronger candidate up against Coffman.  He has no business representing the People of Colorado in any capacity.  

    The GOTV for the GOP is a stealth (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by hairspray on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:28:36 PM EST
    one. I've seen it work.  The churches order up vans and bring their whole congregations in by the dozens.  That is what happened with Kerry in some states in 2004.

    Supposedly, republicans (none / 0) (#18)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 12:43:58 AM EST
    Will call every one of their voters in the last 72 hours.  Yes, rides will be provided on election day but I don't view that as a big deal, we're doing the same things.  Our GOTV will be just as good, if not better.  

    I keep hearig this, but............. (none / 0) (#22)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:32:50 AM EST
    As a democrat poll worker in 4 states, over the last 40 years, I can honestly say that I never seen a van/bus filled with unrelated people, of either party, arrive at the polls.  I'm sure it must happen somewhere, but I haven't seen it.  Have you?  

    Yes in Ohio. And I understand in some (none / 0) (#33)
    by hairspray on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:22:11 AM EST
    rural areas as well.

    Today's PPP poll on early CO voting (none / 0) (#3)
    by magster on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:38:22 PM EST
    I wish I trusted PPP's polling (none / 0) (#14)
    by rdandrea on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:57:04 PM EST

    Is it possible that the additional visits (none / 0) (#4)
    by litigatormom on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:43:40 PM EST
    to CO are due to some factor other than a tightening of the polls there?  From what I've read, more tightening is going on in FLA and NC. Maybe the campaign is setting up CO as a firewall against losing FLA and NC?

    Obama's Firewall (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by zvs888 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 09:53:08 PM EST
    Is Colorado, Virginia, and then Nevada.

    Those three can counter a loss of the Big Three swing states.

    So yea, he seems to be focusing on getting those three over the next few days.


    McCain's hitting (none / 0) (#19)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 12:52:09 AM EST
    Virginia tomorrow, then he and Palin are going to Ohio, FL, NV, MO, NC, NM, Iowa,  2 visits to PA, and McCain's having a Town Hall meeting in NH on Sunday night!    But I see no appearances in CO.  If McCain's writing off CO, why is Obama going there?   He'd do better spending his time in VA or PA.  I believe what Governor Rendell is saying, PA is closer than we think.  I've always been worried about VA.  McCain and Palin are making so many appearances there, it must be still in play.  

    I don't get it either (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by ruffian on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 06:31:38 AM EST
    CO and NM don't even come close to balancing out PA if McCain ekes one out there.

    Obama's biggest worry? (none / 0) (#12)
    by fiver on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:34:09 PM EST
    "I worry that people start thinking these national polls mean something.  They don't."

    FOX was just crowing (none / 0) (#15)
    by kenosharick on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:08:57 PM EST
    about a Zogby(I know, worst pollster ever) poll to be released tomorrow that shows mccain UP by 1 point. Once againg, zogby seems to be looking for headlines.

    Zogby sez: "Look at me!!!!!" (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:49:20 PM EST
    There's a reason why I say, even when the numbers look good, that you should never ever ever ever ever believe Zogby about anything.

    I wonder if (none / 0) (#25)
    by cal1942 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:48:43 AM EST
    the Zogby poll that Fox is talking about is Zogby's internet poll rather than the CSPAN/Zogby, etc. poll.

    go to the source Luke... (none / 0) (#16)
    by white n az on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:39:02 PM EST
    Drudge? Nah

    Fox News? Nah

    fivethirtyeight.com ? You betcha... Trick or Treat


    Zogby/reuters/cspan poll (none / 0) (#20)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:06:13 AM EST
    I have no clue what they're talking about since the Zogby/reuters/cspan poll just released shows Obama up by 5%! And he's only lost 1.1% over the last two days and McCain hasn't even gained whole point!  

    We're fine.  I'm slightly altering my prediction, Obama still gets 51-52%, but lowering McCain to 46-47%, with Barr and Nadar spliting the other 1-2%.  We will win, by a nice margin in the popular vote and even better in the electoral college.  

    Green Party will pickup some votes (none / 0) (#21)
    by nycstray on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:12:39 AM EST
    I think I heard 1% on them also.

    Probably true (none / 0) (#24)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:40:27 AM EST
    Here in VA we have a choice of 6 different parties for President/VP.

    iirc (none / 0) (#30)
    by connecticut yankee on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 08:24:06 AM EST
    I think it's his one day sample that keeps getting leaked to drudge for headline purposes.

    His tracker is an average of three days so for two of those days Obama was averaging 7 or so (guess) and then on friday he had a result with McCain up 1.  That averaged out to 5 for the three day sample released today.

    Each day 400 people are sampled, which is kind of small. But then all three 400 results are added to get 1200.


    Am I good, or what? (none / 0) (#38)
    by BrassTacks on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:20:17 PM EST
    Just had to brag on myself a bit.  

    The best offense is a good defense (none / 0) (#29)
    by robrecht on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 08:20:35 AM EST
    Colorado has always been the lynchpin of Obama's most likely minimal route to 273.  Everything else would be a plus, maybe even a big plus, but Colorado was usually considered necessary.  Only recently have we started to see realistic chances in Virginia, Ohio, and perhaps even Florida.