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AP-GfK Battleground State Poll:

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:03:53 PM EST
Tags: John McCain, Barack Obama, 2008 (all tags)
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A new AP-GfK poll in 8 battleground states has Obama ahead or tied in all of them, including four states that Bush won in 2004.

The states are: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The polling shows Obama leading in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president.

Obama is winning by double-digits in PA and NH. Ohio has 20 electoral votes, PA has 21 and FL has 27. Nevada has 5, Colorado 9, NC 15 and Virginia 13.

On issues, Obama leads on almost every one from the economy to health care. He pulls even with McCain or leads on national security.[More...]

Even on the question of "who would make the right decision about national security," typically a strong suit for McCain, Obama holds a slight lead in Nevada and is running even against his GOP rival in Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

New Mexico and Iowa are "goners" for McCain and Montana is in play. In Colorado, 70% of Hispanics are voting for Obama.

GOP consultants have developed a defeatist attitude.

"If you believe in miracles," said GOP consultant Joe Gaylord of Arlington, Va., "you still believe in McCain."

"I get the sense it's shutting down," said Tom Rath, a GOP consultant in New Hampshire where McCain trails by 18 points.

The AP reports there are some things McCain can still hope for to pull out a win:

First, there are still a good number of voters are open to changing their minds — from as low as 4 percent in Nevada to 14 percent in New Hampshire.

....Second, the impact of race is a hard-to-measure factor as Obama seeks to become the nation's first black president. In three states — North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania — the number of white Democrats who said the word "violent" described most blacks hit double digits in the polling.

If the only way McCain can win is through racist voters, this country is in very sad shape. I refuse to believe that will happen.

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    AP-GfK Battleground State Poll: | 42 comments (42 topical)

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    5 hours per day of television (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by coigue on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 01:34:06 PM EST
    and grand theft auto negate 30 minutes per day of history in school.

    Yep, 20,000 tv commercials (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 02:42:30 PM EST
    is the average number seen by kids by the end of high school -- and all the tv news and sitcoms and nonsense in between.

    But as a U.S. history teacher, I couldn't agree more with the need to teach it more -- and to hire those who teach it well.  A stunning proportion, as much or more than half in some studies, of high school history teachers are coaches.  Schools can't imagine having them teach math or English -- but hey, anyone can teach history!  (Yes, but not well.)

    And we olden history education majors are to be found no more (I teach college but first trained and was certified to teach grades 7-12 history).  About the time that U.S. history became an elective in high schools and colleges, the major changed to "broad field social studies."  So even those teachers trained in that today may have taken one or two history courses at most but more in geography, sociology, etc.  So we see the result.

    Parent

    Statistically, victims of (none / 0) (#39)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 06:32:17 PM EST
    AA violence are usually other AAs, if my recall is accurate.

    Parent
    " Fall From The Bridge To Nowhere Poll" (