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Why McCain Doesn't Have the Numbers to Win

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:14:00 AM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, John McCain (all tags)
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Sure, as I've been saying for a few months, the election is now about turnout. Even so, ABC News boils down the electoral map in such a way that it seems impossible John McCain can win:

If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada.

...If you take all four of these states that will be decided relatively early on Election Night next Tuesday -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida -- McCain has to win three out of four of those states to even have a chance of getting to 270 electoral votes.

It gets worse for McCain: Even Montana is no longer a sure thing and McCain has begun advertising there this week. [More...]

Given that campaign staffers are going public with the rift between the Palin and McCain camps and playing the blame game, it's evident to me that the McCain internal polling numbers show he's lost.

What was the turning point? The economy was a bubbling factor all along. In the end, it may be these three things that drove the final nails in the coffin that has become the McCain/Palin campaign:

1. McCain's pick of Sarah Palin
2. McCain's age and previous health issues
3. The Katie Couric interviews of Sarah Palin.

The Katie Couric interviews seem to be what turned the nation, as opposed to just liberal bloggers, against Sarah Palin. She never recovered and McCain sank like a lead balloon after them.

Many books will be written about this election -- which isn't over yet. But, assuming Obama wins, what do you think was the biggest turning point from which McCain could not recover?

< Late Night: Michelle Obama on Tonight Show | The Polls - 10/28 >

Poll

What Was the Turning Point for John McCain?
♦ The economic bailout 39%
♦ McCain's Choice of Sarah Palin 34%
♦ McCain's Age 0%
♦ McCain's Personality 2%
♦ The Couric-Palin Interviews 11%
♦ Saturday Night Live portrayals of Palin 2%
♦ The $150k clothing spree 0%
♦ Other 9%

Votes: 43
Results | Other Polls

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    Why McCain Doesn't Have the Numbers to Win | 28 comments (28 topical)

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    "Fundamentals of the Economy Are Strong" (5.00 / 5) (#3)
    by john horse on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 05:56:59 AM EST
    ranks with the Palin interview, im ny opinion, as a major turning point.

    Lets also not forget George W. Bush.  Bush wasn't a turning point but he sure was an underlying condition dragging McCain down.  Without Bush I don't think this would have been a "change" election.

    Finally, lets also give credit to Obama.  It wasn't just McCain's mistakes that are going to cost him this election.  Obama had to prove that he was qualified to be President and the way he handled the financial meltdown and the debates demonstrated that he was the cool, collected, thoughtful leader than our nation needs.

    Credit is due Obama... (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by kdog on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:38:15 AM EST
    for the way he always comes off as cool, calm, and collected.

    Especially compared to McCain, who comes off as skittish, rash, impulsive, and hot tempered.

    In such a superficial election, it's what gives Obama a big edge in my eyes.

    Parent

    Not enough (5.00 / 0) (#26)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:09:44 PM EST
    Credit is given to Obama's composure/personality-- it basically renders the whole "erratic new guy, scary" meme null and void when your target is the least emotionally volatile canidate since George HW Bush.

    Parent
    It really is amazing to think that the 2 most (5.00 / 0) (#4)
    by steviez314 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 06:01:20 AM EST
    important (media) people in this campaign have been Katie Couric and David Letterman.

    The Couric/Palin interview stretched over 5 days just killed McCain, and when he stood up Letterman, Hoosier Dave ragged on him for a week non-stop.