AZ Poll: Obama Within 2 of McCain

A new Arizona poll finds John McCain's lead over Obama reduced to 2 points -- a statistical tie.

The same poll last month had McCain up by 7.

Today's LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Obama ahead in both Ohio and Florida.

The Washington Post reports McCain will focus on the economy in the coming week rather than national secuirty.

Does anyone care anymore what he focuses on?

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    Arizona polls (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by arguewithmydad com on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 07:12:22 AM EST
    If Obama could pull off the victory in McCain's home state of Arizona, that would be sweet.  It would be the proverbial poke in the eye to the Republican party.  

    Obama's True Audacity of Hope (1.00 / 0) (#14)
    by Con10tious on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 06:46:56 AM EST
    Obama's promise to redistribute the wealth is nothing more than the biggest, pork barrel project any politician has ever tried.  Simply put, Obama is trying to buy the election by promising a majority of taxpayers a refund that allegedly will create more jobs?  A thousand dollar decrease in taxes will not, in and of itself, provide the incentive to someone making $250K or less to hire someone or start a new business.  At the current minimum wage a business owner would need an additional $12K just to cover the payroll.  Obama's plan is nothing more than an elaborate ruse designed to show that he cares more about the majority of Americans earning less than $100K who are mindless enough to allow their vote to be purchased for a tax refund.  That is the true audacity of Obama's hope.

    You do realise that you're post sounds like (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by JoeA on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 07:00:16 AM EST
    an editorial straight from the pages of the Wall Street Journal.  Your argument that tax cuts for the rich are the way to go, because then they will create lots of new jobs seems laughable in the face of the last 8 years.  If your argument held any water then what with Bushs huge tax cuts the US should be in great financial shape with tens of millions of new jobs created over the last 8 years.

    Good luck with that pitch.


    redistribution (none / 0) (#19)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 08:49:45 AM EST
    reminds me of a governor who in an acceptance speech used a redistribution of oil profits to her people as her great accomplishment.

    Honestly (none / 0) (#1)
    by zvs888 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:54:54 PM EST
    All of this infighting in the McCain campaign is preventing them from capitalizing on anything at this point.

    And with the Obama-mercial likely to dominate tomorrow and Thursday's coverage; there's nothing he can do since we're basically going to be getting to the weekend.

    care about what he focuses on?? (none / 0) (#2)
    by Yotin on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:59:18 PM EST
    not me... I have my blinders on. doesn't everyone?

    Well, I've never heard of this Arizona pollster (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:02:54 PM EST
    Could McCain lose there? I highly doubt it. But yes, it could conceivably be close. It's not the south, and Bill Clinton won in 1996.

    As for Fl and OH. . .I really want to win those two. Really. But the polls there almost seem irrelevant. I'll wait for the returns.

    Dr. Bruce Merrill is the Gold Standard... (none / 0) (#5)
    by EddieInCA on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:34:09 PM EST
    ... of Arizona Polling. He's been doing it for some 20+ years, and he's usually right on the money.

    He's a Political Science Professor at Arizona State University, and does various polls year around, focusing on Arizona issues.

    He does a lot of polls for PBS and CBS locally.

    I used to spend a lot of time in Scottsdale and read about him quite a bit.

    He thinks McCain will barely hold on, but Obama is looking good in Arizona.


    Interesting--thanks for the info (none / 0) (#6)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:37:51 PM EST
    The polling biz is a bit like the restaurant industry. The national guys might be bleh, but at least you know who they are and what their MO is. Gallup is McDonalds etc.

    Local pollsters are variable. They can be excellent or completely untrustworthy.


    Oh, and if I were Obama (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:39:09 PM EST
    I might do a last minute buy in    Phoenix just to test the waters,

    Check out the Homepage... (none / 0) (#8)
    by EddieInCA on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:14:39 PM EST
    It shows their polls going back to 1996.



    Thanks (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:26:47 PM EST
    '06 showed Pederson-Kyl a little closer than it actually was, but the numbers but this could be.

    wow (none / 0) (#4)
    by txpublicdefender on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:21:41 PM EST
    Just the thought that McCain has to sweat about Arizona, his home state, is a good sign, that helps me to feel better about things.

    I swear I feel like I'm going to have a stroke with all my worrying about this election.  BTD's repeated pronouncements that the election is over end up making me feel even more nervous.

    Am I crazy to be worried about that article in Salon that talked about undecideds breaking for the white guy in a race involving a black guy v. a white guy?

    LA Times and NPR... (none / 0) (#11)
    by jerry on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:08:25 AM EST
    LA Times tonight has an article about two roomates, one black, one white, both grad school aged.  Black Guy is a solid conservative, voting for McCain.  White Guy is a staunch liberal voting for Obama.  Can two such different people share an apartment without driving each other crazy?

    NPR had a segment about former Clintonites for McCain.  But as NPR said, before anyone shouts racist PUMAs, these Clintonites were young and black.  And as they walked around their town canvassing other Democrats (forget which but it was in a swing state), they apparently did a pretty good job of convincing Democrats that it was okay to vote for McCain and these Democrats, black and white, expressed their gratitude that someone made it okay to do so.

    TOTN had a talk with moderate/conservative John McWhorter discussing why he, a black linguist usually seen to be conservative professor at Berkeley was supporting Obama.  One very interesting reason was that McWhorter thinks that racial issues are overplayed, and 8 years of Obama would go along way towards putting them to bed.

    LA Times tonight and On the Media over the weekend had interesting articles about why, in 1982, there was no Bradley effect, and even if there was, no Bradley effect has been seen since the early 90s.

    It will be interesting to see what happens, but of course, the night of the election, you can't believe anything you hear.

    (I think it will be an electoral college landslide for Obama.)


    Worried about The Undecideds (none / 0) (#16)
    by barryluda on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 07:12:07 AM EST
    I'm just as crazy as you are,  Tax Public Defender, about the prospect of the undecideds helping McCain win an upset.  But Nate Silver from Five.ThirtyEight.com helped talk me down from the ledge with his post on the subject this morning.

    Grrr. I've been telling you guys this for ages. (none / 0) (#10)
    by jerry on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:35:07 PM EST
    I work my fingers to the bone trying to get this through your thick skulls, and what thanks do I get?

    To the bone I tell you!

    So, thanks, already! (none / 0) (#12)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:12:13 AM EST
    Merits of electing Obama or McCain (none / 0) (#13)
    by Chichi on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 03:31:57 AM EST
    There is an opinion by Avalon under the heading "McCain attacks could backfire with undecideds, analyst says" which I would like to comment on. He says that McCain should advance the view that since their is a likelihood that senate will be controlled by Democrats then the Presidency ought to go to McCain to maintain some balance. I come from a third world country and I find this view rather interesting. Should a person be elected to be President on such a view or based on policies advance and his/her competency? Based on Avalon's opinion, it means McCain should be elected irrespective of how he has proposed to run the country. To me such a view does not match with an advance democracy like the USA. Ofcourse his concern of control of both senate and presidency by one party is valid. But I thought every sennator will critically review every policy etc presented before voting. Can they be bought like is so often happens in developed countries?

    In this video he personally admits he ran for ambition, not issues, and the rest of the parts shows proof of him lying in his own words on lots of critical topics (economy, national security, etc).


    Polls Can Easily and Unintentionally Be Biased (none / 0) (#20)
    by pepperx2 on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 10:20:27 AM EST
    It's not hard to find bias in a poll.  This afflicts businesses, too, but it is especially difficult to achieve an "objective" reading from a political poll.  The way the questions themselves are worded will often bias the results.

    On Monday, the Washington Post announced its polling now showed Obama with an 8-point lead in Virginia, but one of the questions leading to that result asked respondents to specify which candidate would bring "needed change to Washington," which is a direct reference to the whole positioning of the Obama campaign.  

    Brief description of the story is here.

    Vote early (none / 0) (#21)
    by sailingwindward on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 07:03:37 PM EST
    Vote early, vote often, I'm registered in 3 southern states to vote and my brother is registered in 2, vote early in 1 and send in absentee ballots in the others, by hook or crook we are going to take this administration. This is very common here in Florida to have at least 2 residencies, with this strategy the Republicans don't stand a chance.