As for Obama:

If this year's map breaks the way it did in 2004, then Obama would need to win only one of the red battleground states where he leads or is tied in polls with McCain. A victory in Virginia, Florida or Ohio would net Obama enough electoral votes to win the White House.

The analysis breaks the numbers down by state. As for Florida, while the polls may show a tie, ABC notes:

There are also more than 650,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida, as of Oct. 1, although Republican strategists dismiss the advantage.

....Still, since going to Republicans in 2000 and 2004, Florida has changed. No longer experiencing a building boom, the state is now ranked No. 2 in the nation in home foreclosures and is facing its first recession in 16 years. In a dramatic shift, there are also now more registered Hispanic Democrats than registered Hispanic Republicans in comparison with 2004.