Battleground State Analysis

ABC News has an analysis of the battleground states today.

Eight states that could go either way -- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina -- hold 111 of the 270 electoral votes needed for either candidate to win the presidency.

Whether those red states will turn blue is yet to be determined, but according to the latest polls, Obama has a 52-45 percent advantage in those battlegrounds. States like Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, previously leaning in McCain's favor, are now considered toss-ups.

John McCain needs every state Bush carried in 2004 plus a big one Kerry carried -- like Pennsylvania. [More...]

As for Obama:

If this year's map breaks the way it did in 2004, then Obama would need to win only one of the red battleground states where he leads or is tied in polls with McCain. A victory in Virginia, Florida or Ohio would net Obama enough electoral votes to win the White House.

The analysis breaks the numbers down by state. As for Florida, while the polls may show a tie, ABC notes:

There are also more than 650,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida, as of Oct. 1, although Republican strategists dismiss the advantage.

....Still, since going to Republicans in 2000 and 2004, Florida has changed. No longer experiencing a building boom, the state is now ranked No. 2 in the nation in home foreclosures and is facing its first recession in 16 years. In a dramatic shift, there are also now more registered Hispanic Democrats than registered Hispanic Republicans in comparison with 2004.

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    Many people have said (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 10:35:58 AM EST
    Obama is playing chess while McCain is playing checkers. The one time Obama was truly off his game was when Palin was picked as John McCarthy's VP. Obama's opposition was so blinded by bias they actually thought the two weeks after the GOP convention was a turning point in the campaign. (The left-wing, socialist, anti-American media showed their irrationality by repeatedly pointing out dang near everyone gets a bounce out of a convention).

    It's over for McCain (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 10:49:37 AM EST

    Here is a report (PDF) on Latino voters... (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 11:12:24 AM EST
    ...from the NALEO Educational Fund (via Think Progress).  Part of the report compares this year's support of Obama and that of Kerry in key battleground states.  

    Also of interest is the differnce in support of the Florida latinos.


    The surprise to me (none / 0) (#4)
    by Amiss on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:05:37 PM EST
    was they believed that McCain would do a better job with SS than Obama 41-40, even within the MOE, it shocked me that anyone would believe that.

    I heard on the local news here in Northern Fla. that not as many young people were getting out to vote here in Fla, it was very disappointing to me that Obama afaik has not been to the home of FSU or UF. I could be wrong, I know Michelle has been in Tallahassee several times, but it seems Obama only cares about the I-4 corridor and South Florida. IMHO it does not help students or inspire them if you are not willing to at least pay lip service to them. My family and I have already early voted for Obama, and feel he has a good chance to take Fla this time, but if he doesnt, he missed his chance with 2 strong campuses here.


    I hate to nitpick, but (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by kenosharick on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:09:37 PM EST
    your comment that mccain needs every bush state from 2004 plus a big state like Penn. is wrong. If he only won the states bush won he would win the election- of course never gonna happen.

    I think a more accurate way to put it (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by BrianJ on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 05:13:34 PM EST
    Would be this:  McCain needs to not lose any medium-sized or large states that Bush carried, unless he can find a replacement.

    If he loses Virginia, for instance, he needs a state like Minnesota or Wisconsin to replace it.  If he loses Ohio, he needs Pennsylvania.  And so on.

    Can he do it?  It's just possible-  he got some good state polls from Rasmussen and Strategic Vision today-  but he's in the position Kerry was in four years ago in that he needs every break to win.  I think he'll get some of them, but not enough.


    Well, I would have settled for one more break (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by Cream City on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 07:31:58 PM EST
    -- one more state -- for Kerry.

    p.s. To be specific: (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by Cream City on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 07:32:49 PM EST

    That hardly seems nitpicky :-) (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by Cream City on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 07:30:56 PM EST
    Voting early (none / 0) (#10)
    by JohnRJ08 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:16:18 AM EST
    After hearing Obama encouraging people to vote early in this election, my wife and I decided that would be a good idea. I'm sure the lines at the polling places are going create long and frustrating waits. You can imagine how stunned we were when we found out that Los Angeles County, with its +10 million population, only has ONE location for early voting, and it is nearly 40 miles from my home. Pretty outrageous. If Los Angeles residents didn't bother to ask for the mail-in ballot in time, it is very unlikely that they will be making the trek across this huge county and stand in huge lines to vote early at this one location.