The Polls - 10/21

Obama's lead remains steady and significant. DKos/R2000 has Obama by 8, 50-42. Gallup has Obama up 11, 52-41, among RVs, and up 10 among LVs (Expanded.) Hotline has Obama by 6, 47-41. Ras has Obama by 4, 50-46. The one poll McCain wants to believe in now is Battleground, which has Obama going from a 13 point lead 8 days ago to a 1 point lead today.

Still Obama's election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    iirc (5.00 / 0) (#15)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 01:02:54 PM EST
    I read that battleground doesnt poll weekends, their stuff is mostly from last week.  Nate at 538.com expects battleground to show an Obama bump after today.  It's just how they do it and McCain had a couple of good days last week.

    new one (5.00 / 0) (#18)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 03:06:23 PM EST

    Pew +14 Obama.  Puts the RCP to 6.9 in one fell swoop.

    Battleground is kind of amazing... (none / 0) (#1)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:15:39 PM EST
    are we really that scared of socialism?

    Battleground is right wing and as useless as the (none / 0) (#4)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:20:52 PM EST
    newspaper polls showing ridiculous leads for Obama.

    explain Obama's 13 point lead 8 days ago (none / 0) (#11)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:32:14 PM EST
    Battleground seems to be zigging and zagging now that it fixed it's initial weighting problem (that did indeed favor McLame)

    I don't know whether to be heartened or concerned (none / 0) (#2)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:16:38 PM EST
    but McCain's suicide run for Pennsylvania. My gut tells me that if even John Kerry could win there, McCain is wasting his time. The polling tends to confirm that feeling.

    This is a Good Thing (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by zvs888 on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 03:04:09 PM EST
    The second the Republicans begin to admit that they're going to lose a red state(s) other than Iowa/New Mexico, the faster inevitability sets in...

    Sure, its kind of scary the thought of them pulling off the "all in" on Pennsylvania, but we know that that is less likely than them holding all of the red states I'd think.

    To pull off a win in Pennsylvania, they need to bring the national vote much closer just due to the natural convergence of national/state pollings based on the states' individual leans, and they're basically accepting Obama's inevitability if they're going to gamble everything on Pennsylvania rather than take the "safer" route of trying to keep red states red.


    Did the fact Kerry's wife is so (none / 0) (#3)
    by oculus on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:18:08 PM EST
    prominent in PA assist him there?

    I don't think so (none / 0) (#6)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:21:41 PM EST
    Pennsylvania elections are won and lost in the southeast, which didn't know Teresa from a bottle of ketchup.

    I know some Pittsburghers who beg to differ :) (none / 0) (#10)
    by CST on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:30:53 PM EST
    And I think Theresa did help there to some extent.  I am not doubting your knowledge of PA elections, but western PA is definitely a "swing" part of the state.  A lot of voters who could go either way.  Maybe not as many as southeastern PA, but certainly not an insignificant amount.

    Kerry performed worse in the Southwest (none / 0) (#13)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:40:08 PM EST
    than just about any other winning Democrat in history. Do you know of another Democrat who won statewide while losing Greene County?

    Yea (none / 0) (#14)
    by CST on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:46:38 PM EST
    And I think he would've done even worse without Theresa.  I don't think I met a single person in Pittsburgh who actually LIKED Kerry, if anything it was an anti-Bush vote.

    I find it suspect (none / 0) (#5)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:21:19 PM EST
    that a polling outfit could see such wild swings in their results.

    A 12 point swing in a week?  No way.

    Well, I do believe (none / 0) (#8)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:23:37 PM EST
    that McCain will probably get 47% of the vote at the end of the day. So why isn't Obama over 50% there? Probably a dud polling day for some reason.

    Battleground ought to. . . (none / 0) (#7)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:23:09 PM EST
    rename itself "ShiftingGround".  Yeesh.  And their last two weeks of polling, showing Obama up by a margin similar to all the other polls, followed an extended period where they actually showed him behind while other polls showed him solidly ahead.

    They missed the "grandma" cross tab, (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:26:04 PM EST
    which is swinging wildly to Obama.

    they were weighting (none / 0) (#12)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:34:37 PM EST
    using an outdated method that overestimated voters over 60 IIRC. But they changed the method (resulting in Obama leads). Their huge swing BTD discusses is as yet unexplained.

    I would believe BG (none / 0) (#16)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 02:01:40 PM EST
    If any of the other polls showed similar movement-- all of them showed small(2-3 pts.) moves towards McCain, and then a slight (1-2 pts) shift back towards Obama- show BG seemed credible when it shifted from +13 to +6 or so, I just assumed it was more volatile-- but +1 seems to contradict not just the topline but also the recent movement in every other tracking poll (all of which seem to show a slight Obama bump over the last 2-3 days).

    FHI - Mark Penn (none / 0) (#19)
    by BackFromOhio on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 05:25:54 PM EST
    coming up on David Gregory in a minute to discuss how well Obama is doing with former Hillary supporters.