Obama at Springsteen-Joel Fundraiser: Don't Get Over-Confident

Sen. Barack Obama has been on the "Don't get over-confident" theme all day. He told voters in New York and New Hampshire he remembers New Hampshire and the polls aren't always right.

Tonight, at what sounds like an incredible fundraising concert with Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel, Obama took the stage at the end: [More...]

He warned supporters not to get overconfident because he leads in the polls.

"Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up," Obama said. "I want everybody running scared."

So if you're thinking Obama has this locked up, remember he doesn't, unless you get out and vote.

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    And having personally already voted. . . (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:34:25 PM EST

    Yup, as a Cubs fan (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by ruffian on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 02:57:28 AM EST
    I am well acquainted with the phenomenon.

    There is no reason people can't wait until Nov. 5 for their victory lap.

    Complacency is the enemy (5.00 / 0) (#12)
    by OldCity on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 07:53:43 AM EST
    Well, actually McCain is the enemy, but complacency is a close second.

    There's nothing more foolish on politics than leaving something to chance.  That's one of the reasons why I find Obama so very impressive.  He's disciplined and focused, and his example permeates downward through his campaign.  Everything on record indicates that he has been the primary mover in his campaign, and it's clear that his skills as an executive and as a tactician are superb.

    And so I suggest that he's right, that the worst thing that voters and volunteers can do is presume victory.  This is a sport in which everyone plays until the whistle blows (and some of our opponent's efforts seem to be designed to force overtime, thanks to Accorn's unbelievably deficient QA processes.  They don't have an excuse...they knew the spotlight was going to shine on them and they still provided an opportunity for the Republicans to fsck with them.  Sad.).

    Saying that Obama will certainly (none / 0) (#2)
    by tigercourse on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:39:31 PM EST
    win is not overconfidence. It's simply a realistic view of the situation. He's going to win.

    It might be overconfident to say he'll have a landslide, but the chance that McCain will pull off an upset is near nill.

    Polling... (none / 0) (#3)
    by vml68 on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:43:21 PM EST
    I read on a couple of other sites that Obama's internal polling is showing the race a lot closer than what is being potrayed in the media. Not sure if it is true or not but it might explain why Obama has brought up the overconfidence/New Hampshire issue a couple of times today.

    I thought I saw (while channel flippin) (none / 0) (#5)
    by nycstray on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:49:27 PM EST
    that Gallup had it at 2 again. That made no sense to me  . . . .

    It does make sense because of (none / 0) (#9)
    by andrys on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 02:35:30 AM EST
    the laziness of the media in reporting any news that may
    discomfort in the case of Obama.  

      I've watched the polls go from 9-11 points average
    in favor of Obama, to 3.8 - 5 points average this last week, with about 7 points Undecided (and those people tend to be conservative by nature) WHILE the media keeps saying that there was no impact in the campaigning strategies of the last two weeks.

       I do disregard the outlier newspaper and tv polls which I've mentioned before because they always poll in favor of Obama by about 10 points more than the others.  That is no accident.  It's the audience they have and which they poll and a certain bias.  

      There IS an effect even with negative ads, and Obama knows this too, which is why his ads are about 30% negative -- and since he is outspending McCain 3-1 in ads, they're doing about the same number of mainstream-seen negative ads.  For a reason.

      And so the Gallup poll today just continues a trend it had noted was a creeping one.  

      Obama is absolutely right.  The enemy of a victory in November is any kind of lazy arrogance, sitting back and thinking it is 'eventual' and 'done' -- he hasn't forgotten that poll leads of 10 to 20 for him in the primaries were followed by losses.   Sitting happily on current polling at anytime is just self-defeating.  It speaks of Obama-rooting of a kind that leaves me speechless, which is good for most on this site -- mostly because it can assume that EVERYone feels the way most here do.  A certain crowd watches debates.  Americans are so diverse that we need to be aware  that those not interested in focusing on politics or even in seeing the debates as games as so many do ('win' 'lose') will not be watching but are voting based on other things.

      The only way is to increase Dem margins as much as is possible and, most of all, to get out the vote -- though not by means that could be perceived as too pushy by those you are hoping to get to the polls.

      The one poison that can be taken is to proclaim that "It's over."  I was glad to see Obama driving this home and the seriousness of it to his crowds who don't always understand that the extent of their enthusiasm is not that of others and that the most important item on Nov 4 is actually getting to the polls (or having mailed your ballot on time).



    For some reason I thought (none / 0) (#4)
    by nycstray on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:48:04 PM EST
    this already happened (on Monday?)? I know both candidates were at a fund raiser earlier this evening along with Hillary, Bloomberg and others, according to local news.

    Our city streets will be safe again tomorrow morning, as all will be gone {grin}

    The 200,000 voter registrations (none / 0) (#6)
    by shoephone on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:25:39 AM EST
    being challenged by the GOP in Ohio is enough to make me nervous about how tight things could be on November 4th.

    In my heart and soul I believe the only way McCain could ever win the election is by stealing it.

    It could mean so many provisional ballots (none / 0) (#14)
    by Cream City on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 09:57:04 AM EST
    as I read it, with the rule that unverified voters have to use provisional ballots, which aren't counted until after the election, after verification, that Ohio can't be called on election night.  And if it comes down to needing Ohio, imagine the mess.  

    If the polls are to be believed, it won't come down to needing Ohio.  But that's a big if.


    Landslide (none / 0) (#7)
    by Mikeb302000 on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:58:29 AM EST
    Overconfident or not, I predict a landslide for Obama.

    Don't worry, I don't (none / 0) (#8)
    by ruffian on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 02:10:29 AM EST
    "Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up,"

    Yea (none / 0) (#13)
    by CST on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 09:34:48 AM EST
    What a game.  You have to be especially carefull of over-confidence in October.  Remember the Red Sox/ Yankees series in 2004?  They just wouldn't quit.

    Although I will admit at this point I fully expect the Rays to go to the world series :(