The Polls - 10/16

In the wake of another Presidential debate, we'll follow the polling for the next three nights closely. I think the race is over as I have for some time. In any event, some updated results.

DKos/R2000 has Obama holding a steady 11 point lead, 52-41. Ras has Obama holding a 4 point lead, 50-46. Hotline has Obama up 8, 49-41. Gallup expanded has Obama up 8, 52-44. A slew of big media polls have Obama up big from 9 (LATimes), 10 (WaPo) to 14 (NYTimes).

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    I'm preparing to live in a new progressive era (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:35:13 AM EST
    Of course we come by a Democratic presidency and a Democratic congress the hard way via war and a destroyed economy.  Give me some Al Franken though and I may brighten up.

    I hope Franken (5.00 / 3) (#9)
    by Fabian on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:37:53 AM EST
    comes in with a better attitude than Obama.  What am I saying?  Of course he will!  Franken loves the issues.  Maybe some Junior Senators can get together and create a Progressive Coalition.

    That fact based sometimes loud mouth Al Franken (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:43:44 AM EST
    can and most likely will help Obama embrace his more progressive side.

    Nothing wrong with a loud mouth. (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Fabian on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:48:04 AM EST
    Style and a hint of restraint do come in handy though.  We had a local gadfly on our school board who accurately pinpointed some problems.  No sense of style, but he was right, goldurnit!

    Franken's problem though (none / 0) (#22)
    by CoralGables on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:44:31 PM EST
    it's very difficult for the gadfly to win an election. Coleman's bugs continue to take the spotlight off of Franken though, thus helping Franken in his quest.

    We are (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by eric on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 10:17:43 AM EST
    trying our best here.  But this race is really gotten crazy.  The TV is little more than Franken and Coleman ads.  I read yesterday that the candidates have now topped $33,000,000 raised.  It is insane.

    From the darkest media silence in Alabama (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 10:31:03 AM EST
    I'm sending you all of my positive energies in hopes that they will enable you to maintain some sanity during the insanity.  I'm counting on you Minnesota, I need you Minnesota :)

    Man... (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:30:03 AM EST
    ...that money could buy an awful lot of lutefisk!  Or a new viaduct or two...

    Um, today's 10/16 (5.00 / 4) (#13)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 10:17:05 AM EST
    I've had quite enough campaign, thank you, and don't want to have to have another month.  Please?

    desperation (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:23:51 AM EST
    you know you are desperate when after you have thrown the kitchen sink at someone, you hurl the plumber in after....

    Oh, that's good! (none / 0) (#20)
    by wasabi on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:21:03 PM EST
    Throw the plumber in after...

    I don't really thing (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 08:41:26 AM EST
    there's anything left for McCain to do.

    Yep (none / 0) (#3)
    by Lou Grinzo on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:08:22 AM EST
    I think it was Larry Sabato who said on Bill Press' show this morning that this race is now on cruise control, thanks largely to the millions of votes that have already been cast.

    I would love to see an analysis that looks at early voting and says something like: According to a poll, X million people have voted already, with this percentage breakout of Obama vs. McCain, and this breakout of support among yet-to-vote people, therefore McCain needs this big a swing to pull out a victory.


    Well, it would be nice if he could (none / 0) (#6)
    by ThatOneVoter on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:23:51 AM EST
    campaign for downticket Dem candidates in tight races. What he's done for Obama is fine, but he really could do more.

    Is the conventional wisdom accurate (none / 0) (#2)
    by barryluda on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 08:46:10 AM EST
    that polls "always" tighten near the end?

    Voters probably get fed up (5.00 / 3) (#8)
    by Fabian on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:35:14 AM EST
    with the candidates and decide for the one who aggravates them the least.

    I was rolling my eyes at both the questions and the answers from last night's debates.  Made me want to go watch the Dem primary debates again - at least the election wasn't three weeks away at those.


    Well, Gore had a 10 point lead in some polls (none / 0) (#4)
    by ruffian on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:15:41 AM EST
    at this point in 2000.

    I know, he really won.  But not by 10 points.


    I wish people would stop saying this (5.00 / 4) (#5)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:18:37 AM EST
    Gore had nothing resembling a steady lead--ever. And most of the time there was a lead, it was Bush's.

    Good point - thanks (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by ruffian on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:51:28 AM EST
    Yes (none / 0) (#19)
    by cal1942 on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:02:55 PM EST
    I think that one poll was an outlier.

    Obama should keep up the campaign pace right up until 8 AM central time on election day.

    Keep rapid response going till it's time to go out and vote.

    Don't even imagine coasting. Play every minute of the game.


    So, (none / 0) (#18)
    by shoulin4 on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:45:38 AM EST
    if you (whoever "you" may be, not necessarily BTD) were advising the McCain campaign, what would you do?

    I would follow Gergens advice (none / 0) (#21)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:43:36 PM EST
    Stop the negative advertising and attacks on the campaign trail and leave the race win or lose with your honor intact.

    He should ignore whoever is telling him to ignore the economy and tour with an economist or 4.  He should talk about what to expect over the next 6 months in the financial downturn and how he intends to fend of the crises.

    There is plent of speculation as to what the economy will bring and if he would sit down with economists who can look into the crystal balls and provide ways to ease the pain (you cannot cure it completely) he might appeal to the masses or indys.

    I said on the night of his convention speech on this very blog, wrong speech wrong time.  Too much talk on terror and "fight" and "reform".  People want to hear how to solve the enormous crisis, not how to prevent one in the future by casting blame.  

    Tell people what is coming and how you as president will be proactive not reactive.  The past 8 years has been entirely reactive (starting with 9-11 when Clarke was trying to get someone to pay attention to Bin Laden).  

    If he wants to not be W, act like a sage and not a "decider".


    The best thing for McCain would be to (none / 0) (#23)
    by ThatOneVoter on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:45:35 PM EST
    stop all Palin appearances. We can infer pretty clearly that she was NOT McCain's preferred choice, and it turns out she is much worse than he or we feared (IMO).
    If he locks her up, it will send the message that he is in charge, that he doesn't tolerate what's happening at her campaign rallies, and that he is standing up to the right wing.
    Too little, too late? Sure, but that's my two cents.

    The myth of McCain (none / 0) (#24)
    by eric on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 01:56:14 PM EST
    is better than the reality of McCain.  Stop ALL appearances of McCain on TV except as still photographs.  Stoke the legend of McCain and keep the bitter old man off the stage.

    I'm nervous (none / 0) (#26)
    by progressiveinvolvement on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 03:48:55 PM EST
    Obama's lead has been steady, but, considering everything, fairly narrow.  We're not out of the woods yet.

    I'm curious (none / 0) (#27)
    by flyerhawk on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 09:25:41 PM EST
    about these new Gallup splits that popped up in the last week.  

    Why did they just start doing them and what do they mean?  

    Fairly big difference between the poll they have been doing and the new "traditional LV" poll.